Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?

[heymrdj]

The title doesn't say anything about American infrastructure. In fact the first location mentioned is Germany. Many European countries are saying they won't even sell gas cars in 20-30 years.

My personal experience will be on the west coast and that's my whole frame for tipping point. Yours is different. Isn't the internet a great place to discuss these things?

You’re right, it doesn’t say American, my mistake. I believe my timeline will stand an even better chance worldwide. If there’s no limits, we’ll include the likes of Vietnam, middle India, Georgia, Tanzania etc as needing to have their vehicular population counted as part of the ratio of fossil fueled vs electric cars. Adding third world countries is going to drag the timeline to the stone age.


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[tweakmonkey]

So if every western country has 90% evs you'd say it's not a tipping point because countries in east Africa still use diesel?

 

[heymrdj]

So if every western country has 90% evs you'd say it's not a tipping point because countries in east Africa still use diesel?

If I were in my own thread, I would state American and Canadian tipping point, and that’s when cars between both countries have reached 35%, essentially past half way to a half way point. For this thread, since we don’t have a fence, when worldwide reaches 35% total. If 90% are the western countries but it’s 34% worldwide, it’s not tipping point.


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[tweakmonkey]

Ok glad we have some numbers then! It'll definitely be many years before any place has that kind of ev penetration except maybe Norway. I kinda want to just sit back and wait a year and we can talk about this again

 

[pm]

The title doesn't say anything about American infrastructure. In fact the first location mentioned is Germany. Many European countries are saying they won't even sell gas cars in 20-30 years.

Actually most of them are saying that they won't sell any passenger cars that aren't hybrids or EV's. So the proposal is to move to electrified cars - not electric-only cars.

 

[Brovane]

Already explained in the thread.

Average purchase price of a vehicle in America: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/the-average-new-car-purchase-price-is-now-above-34000/

Not losing the already short range to de-ice and defrost the car. A Cmax for example needs 4KW to defrost. This won’t happen at night, this will happen just like traffic jams, between 7-8AM all at once. Does the northern grid have that much power in its current state for the supposed EV tipping point that others are believing is so unrealistically close.

You can use the batteries to help the grid, but then if you’re a Cmax, you have 11 miles of range after warming. But I honestly haven’t looked at it outside of Ford, Chevy, and Nissan. I’ll consider any car under 35K before tax credits or anything like that (strictly MSRP, as it’s the only way to keep comparisons even across the country).


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From the perspective of the CA electric grid, demand is currently fairly low in the morning with the demand rising as businesses open up with demand peaking in the late afternoon. Not sure if the Northern grid has the same type of curve. if it does, then extra demand isn't an issue in the morning. However keep in mind, utilities have a habit of adjusting as demand rises. I wouldn't expect that utilities would be caught completely unaware of electric cars and their demand for electricity.

A typical ICE car looses around 20% of range when it is freezing out. Electric car range lose can vary demand on how the car is stored. For example, if the car is garaged and can be pre-heated while plugged in, then range isn't as impacted if the car is stored outside and isn't plugged in overnight.

This article talks about EV's and cold weather. http://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/electric-cars-cold-weather-temperatures

With 69% of US drivers reporting that they drive less than 60-miles a day. There are several EV's that would still be easily capable of 60+ miles a day. The current EV's could easily meet the majority of drivers daily needs.

That to me would fit the definition of a tipping point.

If you are one of those people that needs to drive 300+ miles a day uphill both ways in freezing temperatures and snow, then an EV might not be a good fit for you.

 

[Zorba]

I looked at a Bolt at the fair yesterday. I was very unimpressed. You could get a fiesta or focus thats just as nice for 20k less. Seeing that makes me think the tipping point is further away.

 

[Brovane]

I looked at a Bolt at the fair yesterday. I was very unimpressed. You could get a fiesta or focus thats just as nice for 20k less. Seeing that makes me think the tipping point is further away.

With the power that the Bolt has 200 hp sub 7-second 0-60 time is more in the category of a hot hatch. When I did a test drive with a Bolt, I was easily able to break the wheels loose.

 

[tweakmonkey]

It's also whisper quiet inside when driving. Drive a $20k fiesta and try saying that.

 

[Zorba]

With the power that the Bolt has 200 hp sub 7-second 0-60 time is more in the category of a hot hatch. When I did a test drive with a Bolt, I was easily able to break the wheels loose.

I didn't get to drive it, so that could've added some points to it. But still a Focus ST is only ~25K.

In other news I just saw my local lot is advertising Fiesta and Focus SEs for 12.5-14.5K on their website, as a commuter car that would be hard to beat.

It's also whisper quiet inside when driving. Drive a $20k fiesta and try saying that.

I don't think I've ever actually driven a Fiesta, but I've driven a lot of Focuses and I've never noticed excessive noise, definitely not an EV but no Jeep either.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

I didn't get to drive it, so that could've added some points to it. But still a Focus ST is only ~25K.

In other news I just saw my local lot is advertising Fiesta and Focus SEs for 12.5-14.5K on their website, as a commuter car that would be hard to beat.

I don't think I've ever actually driven a Fiesta, but I've driven a lot of Focuses and I've never noticed excessive noise, definitely not an EV but no Jeep either.

i know this discussion about the tipping point should not include current government incentives. EVs aren't truly at a tipping point if they have to rely on help to compete.

that being said, the $7500 federal tax credit brings the price of a Ford Focus Electric down to the price of a base Focus. I think the focus electric would make a better commuter car, not even counting the HOV benefit in some places.

i'm surprised EV still aren't all that popular given all the government incentives. i guess that means we aren't at the tipping point yet. i think the tipping point would be when EV don't need government help to compete.

 

[Yuriman]

I'm strongly considering when I have a major mechanical failure in my Honda, converting it to electric using the guts of a Leaf or something. Chances are good that's some years off though. Gas motor, transmission, exhaust, and hybrid systems removed, the G1 Insight is probably only ~1200lbs, and would go twice as far on the same energy.

 

[Thebobo]

only if it has enough range to be useful to you

110 miles is barely enough to run saturday errands

Plenty for me. I have 99% of what I need delivered. Rarely do I drive go to a store and never on a weekend. Where I live it's a madhouse. If I do need to I stop by a store I do it on my way home from work on a weekday. I get off at 2PM so its works out.

 

[bigi]

i know this discussion about the tipping point should not include current government incentives. EVs aren't truly at a tipping point if they have to rely on help to compete.

that being said, the $7500 federal tax credit brings the price of a Ford Focus Electric down to the price of a base Focus. I think the focus electric would make a better commuter car, not even counting the HOV benefit in some places.

i'm surprised EV still aren't all that popular given all the government incentives. i guess that means we aren't at the tipping point yet. i think the tipping point would be when EV don't need government help to compete.

We do need to talk about govt incentives a lot actually.

Not many, you included, never mention government incentives for diesel and gasoline. Why is that?

Do you people really think that getting oil out, transporting it, refining it, transporting to your corner gas station and selling for 2-3 bucks per gallon is economically viable and still leaves profits for the seller and big oil company?

No, it is not that peachy really. We pay $4 Billion a year to subsidize oil/gas.

Now, lots of math can be done with this 'nice' number.

So, let's kill both incentives those $7500 or so per EV and $4,000,000,000 for oil/gas and see who the winner is?

 

[heymrdj]

We do need to talk about govt incentives a lot actually.

Not many, you included, never mention government incentives for diesel and gasoline. Why is that?

Do you people really think that getting oil out, transporting it, refining it, transporting to your corner gas station and selling for 2-3 bucks per gallon is economically viable and still leaves profits for the seller and big oil company?

No, it is not that peachy really. We pay $4 Billion a year to subsidize oil/gas.

Now, lots of math can be done with this 'nice' number.

So, let's kill both incentives those $7500 or so per EV and $4,000,000,000 for oil/gas and see who the winner is?

Oil is very muddy and the subsidies deal is a figure no one will every really figure out. Gas and diesel are only but a small figure of the over all global oil subsidy. Heavy fuel oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products play into that subsidy as well, which is like 600B for the US. Everything from styrofoam to plastic bags to electronics and your electricity are all based on those subsidies. Much of what the EV is made of will increase in price, as will any car. You also have the power plants that run natural gas needing to increase prices, as well as the ships that use heavy fuel oil to deliver all the foreign electric parts. On the EV side you also have other credits that need to be taken into account, like any credit for a charger, any price difference from the electric company (which is being passing along a subsidy), as well as any subsidies commercial locations receive for installing public use chargers and the power they consume.


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[MuchTooSexy]

government subsidies for energy is an important point, but i'm not sure there is anything actionable from the viewpoint of the consumer/car buyer.

in the end the question is whether EVs make sense. are we talking individually for each buyer? or are we talking societaly (is this a word?), on what public policy should be implemented to best help the whole?

i think this thread had been talking individually. EVs make great sense to some, and less sense to others. but maybe we should be talking big picture...

 

[mdram]

what big picture?

 

[MuchTooSexy]

what big picture?

the pollution from rare earth mining you brought up is an example.

 

[Accord99]

No, it is not that peachy really. We pay $4 Billion a year to subsidize oil/gas.

Now, lots of math can be done with this 'nice' number.

So, let's kill both incentives those $7500 or so per EV and $4,000,000,000 for oil/gas and see who the winner is?

The US alone consumes >140 billion gallons of gas a year (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10). Even ignoring diesel, aviation, heating and natural gas, that's only 2.8c/gallon. Which governments more than recover on royalties, fuel taxes and sales taxes.

 

[desy]

I lose about 10% in winter in ICE across multiple vehicles over 35 years of driving
How much are power plants subsidized? I know nuclear used to be heavily subsidized and few were profitable

 

[PeterScott]

The dominoes are falling:
CALIFORNIA MULLS COMBUSTION-ENGINE CAR BAN AFTER SIMILAR UK, FRANCE AND CHINA PLANS

 

[heymrdj]

The dominoes are falling:
CALIFORNIA MULLS COMBUSTION-ENGINE CAR BAN AFTER SIMILAR UK, FRANCE AND CHINA PLANS

And the article also points how laughable it is. Such as Europe needing to buy power from countries that doesn’t have strict emissions to meet goals. This is no different than the BS of moving manufacturing to China to avoid environmental regulations here. Let’s just stick it on some poor people who’s government won’t stick up for them. The will not, and should not, pass without an end to end solution.


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[MuchTooSexy]

its not clear from the article that ICE will be completely banned, since electrified hybrids might still be allowed.

 

[Puffnstuff]

GM has announced that they are going 100% electric. You can expect for all manufacturers to follow them into the future. When internal combustion was developed we had no fueling infrastructure which took time to implement but look at what we have today. Now we have to shift to rapid chargers which will take time but will happen except now employers can allow the technology on their property without some kind of bio-hazard license. People will be able to charge wherever they go making it very convenient for them to own an EV.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/02/technology/gm-electric-cars/index.html

 

[VirtualLarry]

I think I could get along nicely with a decent electric "commuter"-style vehicle, but I need one for "big" guys.

That's one reason that I drive a van. Need legroom. And headroom.