Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?

[bigi]

All of those claiming to go fully EV. Great, really great.

BUT, what batteries will they put in those exactly? At least Tesla is already outputting from the GigaFactory. MB said they will build a few in EU/US. The rest? Just say stuff.

There aren't enough batteries/infrastructure for all those unprepared morons to say they go EV. Period. Good batteries do not grow on trees. The rest is just wheels, chairs and stereo in metal can. That's easy in 2017. Batteries and charging infrastructure needs to be addressed to start replacing 2 billion cars.

BTW, I'll go full EV too. I have a concept killer car created in PowerPoint.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

Tesla isn't the only company increasing its production capabilities.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/21/lg-chem-expand-battery-cell-manufacturing-us-china/
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...m-may-ally-with-vw-for-electric-cars-in-china

i figure, capacity will grow with demand.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

This looks relevant to the original topic:
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...e-of-fastest-selling-used-vehicles-in-the-u-s

it seems that by simply being cheap enough, EV can reach a tipping point of sorts... We aren't even talking about the good EV, just the old short range ones from 3 or more years ago.

 

[PeterScott]

This looks relevant to the original topic:
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...e-of-fastest-selling-used-vehicles-in-the-u-s

it seems that by simply being cheap enough, EV can reach a tipping point of sorts... We aren't even talking about the good EV, just the old short range ones from 3 or more years ago.

Exactly. My point is that price is the major tipping point factor. Eventually the price for a new EV will reach parity or even lower than ICE powered car.

That was the tipping point I metioned in the OP. Though when I say soon, I mean somewhere in the next 10 years.

That is relatively soon for such a major shift.

Once EVs are purchase price competitive, I think desire to own them will become widespread, and the economics and other benefits will be self evident.

So instead of people looking for excuses for why people won't buy EV's like you see in these threads like you see today, we will have a situation where almost everyone will be trying to figure out how to make an EV fit their situation because they really want one.

 

[Yuriman]

Competing with other used cars on the market, they're almost a no-brainier at a similar price. If you had to pick something up with 150k miles on it for less than $8,000, wouldn't you rather have something which has no engine or transmission to fail, no fluids to leak, and costs basically nothing to run? And, it's not so hard to stomach only having 80 miles range if you have a 20 year old beater Corolla parked next to it for when you need to go a little farther. The older EVs with smaller batteries take less time to charge up and even battery replacement costs are significantly lower, if that's ever needed.

 

[desy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/30/gm-stands-to-lose-9000-dollars-per-car-on-chevy-bolt.html
So how long until you think gm can actually make money on a Bolt add your 7500 subsidy and at $16000 eaten by the manufacturer and government EVs are a LONG way from being price competative with affordable transporation for the masses IE tipping point.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/30/gm-stands-to-lose-9000-dollars-per-car-on-chevy-bolt.html
So how long until you think gm can actually make money on a Bolt add your 7500 subsidy and at $16000 eaten by the manufacturer and government EVs are a LONG way from being price competative with affordable transporation for the masses IE tipping point.

this is a somewhat newer article:
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2017/05/11/profitable-evs/101531172/

i don't think GM is losing $9k on each. they might not quite be profitable, but this will get better over time.

 

[desy]

this is a somewhat newer article:
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2017/05/11/profitable-evs/101531172/

i don't think GM is losing $9k on each. they might not quite be profitable, but this will get better over time.

Uhuh they aren't profitable
"He would not say when that will happen, nor would he address the price point of “affordable” electric cars"
From the article $227x60=13620 just for batteries whic they hope to drop to $190 by the end of the decade so 11400 for just batteries by 2020

they also brought up Tesla in that article lets check in on them shall we
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/20...trickle-hotly-anticipated-backlogged-model-3/

In a quarterly statement released yesterday, Tesla says just 260 Model 3s made it off the Fremont, California assembly line between the launch of production in late July and the end of September. Of that number, 220 made it to customer driveways. That’s not encouraging news for investors, nor for the model’s roughly half-million reservation holders, some of whom were told at launch not to expect their vehicle until the end of next year

I said way earlier in this thread when Chev first offered the Volt years ago they anticipated maybe a couple of years to turn a profit, still hasn't happened because cheap fast batteries haven't shown up yet.
There are hundreds of articles about battery technology coming, none have scaled up or delivered on promise. Its happening a lot slower than what people hope because economics aren't there they just aren't.

 

[PeterScott]

I said way earlier in this thread when Chev first offered the Volt years ago they anticipated maybe a couple of years to turn a profit, still hasn't happened because cheap fast batteries haven't shown up yet.

Your evidence?

We get all kinds of disingenuous articles like this about all progressive technology. I remember the claim that each Volt cost a taxpayers a quarter million dollars to build. Or GM was losing $49K on each $40K Volt.

These types of "analysis" are usually disingenuous attempts to undermine any progress away from fossil fuels by painting alternatives as unprofitable taxpayer burdens.

They usually do this by dividing all the R&D that went into the car, by the number of cars sold. Developing even a normal econobox these days costs hundreds of millions of dollars. If you divide that R&D across the first few thousand cars, they would be wildly unprofitable, but it is absurd to to do that, unless you are being dishonest to push an agenda.

R&D is a sunk cost. Once you are producing cars, you should be looking at production margins. The cost to produce, vs the sales revenue to get an honest picture of profit/loss.

Now if you have production costs for the current Volt, I would LOVE to see that information.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

yes, low end EV are not quite profitable yet... but they are moving in the right direction:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/19/electric-vehicles-cost-conventional-cars-2018/

the link is to an article about an investment bank's projections. this should count as a credible source since investment firms want to better project future markets rather than push any agenda.

 

[PeterScott]

yes, low end EV are not quite profitable yet... but they are moving in the right direction:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/19/electric-vehicles-cost-conventional-cars-2018/

the link is to an article about an investment bank's projections. this should count as a credible source since investment firms want to better project future markets rather than push any agenda.

Unfortunately, UBS are still counting the R&D costs/cars. So this is not unit profit/loss. It's dividing big R&D across a small number of cars.
Here is the Video from someone involved. Around 1:50 he mentions factoring in the R&D over a small number of cars:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKdqRcJDg1E

This is not a case of cost or production > selling costs.

This is a case of not making back all the R&D costs, which is obviously on a much longer time horizon.

Also they mention that they used $200/KWh for their battery estimates when GM has disclosed their costs is $145:
https://insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-battery-cell-pricing-video/

Really these guys are just guessing like any outsider.

 

[PeterScott]

Duplicate

 

[Elixer]

Also they mention that they used $200/KWh for their battery estimates when GM has disclosed their costs is $145:
https://insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-battery-cell-pricing-video/

Really these guys are just guessing like any outsider.

So, 60KWh * 145 = $8700.
GM part # 24285978 costs $15,734.29 that makes it $262.24 per KWh.
So, while they may be getting it at the price, once they add their overhead, that is a pretty big chunk of change, and that doesn't even include shop charges, so add another $4-5K ($200/hour) to that.

I do have to wonder how long these cars will last if a customer has to pay that much after the warranty is over. Not sure it would be worth it to pour that amount into the car again.

 

[PeterScott]

So, 60KWh * 145 = $8700.
GM part # 24285978 costs $15,734.29 that makes it $262.24 per KWh.
So, while they may be getting it at the price, once they add their overhead, that is a pretty big chunk of change, and that doesn't even include shop charges, so add another $4-5K ($200/hour) to that.

I do have to wonder how long these cars will last if a customer has to pay that much after the warranty is over. Not sure it would be worth it to pour that amount into the car again.

Warranty is typically 8 years on the battery. Battery should be much cheaper by then. Also batteries are showing no real sign they will be in trouble by then either.

 

[desy]

Warranty is typically 8 years on the battery. Battery should be much cheaper by then. Also batteries are showing no real sign they will be in trouble by then either.

I don't think batteries are a problem much either if they fail its like a modern engine failure, rare. So $1000 to $100 is exactly what needs to happen for 'tipping point' batteries needed to be an order of magnitude better. I'd be in the group that would have an electric commuter and a gasoline family vehicle and a nice garage to charge in. I'd prefer a CUV over the current small cars but it doesn't have to have awd, just ground clearance and ride height.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

I'd prefer a CUV over the current small cars but it doesn't have to have awd, just ground clearance and ride height.

maybe?
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...buick-small-suv-to-be-based-on-bolt-ev-report

 

[Yuriman]

Expect to lose 20-40% range with the same battery, or need for more battery, due to the increased rolling resistance of "truck" tires, and the loss of aerodynamics from lifting and getting rid of the fastback shape. Add more loss to that if you want the vehicle to be any bigger.

 

[Rifter]

Wow 20-40% eh. I didnt realize it was so bad on larger vehicles, gas mileage for trucks/SUVs isnt that bad VS cars so i thought EV efficiency with larger vehicles would follow a similar curve to gas mileage, seems i was wrong.

Im now changing my previous estimate and saying the tipping point is at least 50-75 years away, maybe even 100. At least in canada, not sure about the US, but here in canada trucks outsell cars(stats canada throws vans, heavy trucks, SUV's and pickups into the same trucks field) some years 2/1 other years closer to 1.3/1 but either way untill EV make massive strides in pickups and SUV's efficiency, as well as dealing with the cold weather(canada aint hot like the US) I think EV tipping point in canada is very long way off, i wont see it in my lifetime.

Maybe in the few major cities we have here in canada will see alot of EV's for communing, but for the other 95% of the country i just dont see it happening untill we have EV's that can replace a 4x4 pickup and still have decent mileage while also heating effectively in the cold without it impacting mileage much. When they make a EV thats a SUV/pickup, 4x4, gets 400 miles a charge while also heating in -20c weather, and is as cheap as a F150 then the tipping point will happen in canada. And i dont see that happening soon.

 

[Thebobo]

I for one look forward to our new electric overlords! (or Hydrogen)

 

[Yuriman]

Wow 20-40% eh. I didnt realize it was so bad on larger vehicles, gas mileage for trucks/SUVs isnt that bad VS cars so i thought EV efficiency with larger vehicles would follow a similar curve to gas mileage, seems i was wrong.

Im now changing my previous estimate and saying the tipping point is at least 50-75 years away, maybe even 100. At least in canada, not sure about the US, but here in canada trucks outsell cars(stats canada throws vans, heavy trucks, SUV's and pickups into the same trucks field) some years 2/1 other years closer to 1.3/1 but either way untill EV make massive strides in pickups and SUV's efficiency, as well as dealing with the cold weather(canada aint hot like the US) I think EV tipping point in canada is very long way off, i wont see it in my lifetime.

Maybe in the few major cities we have here in canada will see alot of EV's for communing, but for the other 95% of the country i just dont see it happening untill we have EV's that can replace a 4x4 pickup and still have decent mileage while also heating effectively in the cold without it impacting mileage much. When they make a EV thats a SUV/pickup, 4x4, gets 400 miles a charge while also heating in -20c weather, and is as cheap as a F150 then the tipping point will happen in canada. And i dont see that happening soon.

The difference between cars and SUVs really is that large.

For instance, the HR-V is based on the Civic platform. They don't have the same engine, but they weight about the same and the Civic actually has slightly higher passenger volume.

Honda Civic: 32 city, 42 highway
Honda HR-V: 29 city, 31 highway

35% better economy in the Civic, probably almost all in aerodynamics.

Toyota Corolla: 30 city, 40 highway
Toyota CH-R: 27 city, 31 highway

30% better economy in the Corolla, which actually has a fair bit more passenger volume.

Chevy Trax: 25 city, 33 highway
Chevy Cruze: 30 city, 40 highway

~22% higher in the Cruze

The effect is more pronounced in EVs because these compact SUVs are typically slightly underpowered compared with their compared sedan cousins, which gives them a slightly efficiency advantage - the more oversized your engine, the more economy you lose, and these tends to hide aerodynamics slightly on the highway.

EDIT:
And just for giggles,

Hyundai Ioniq: 57 city, 59 highway
Kia Niro: 52 city, 49 highway

Same drivetrain, similar passenger volume and weight, 20% economy loss.

 

[Rifter]

The difference between cars and SUVs really is that large.

For instance, the HR-V is based on the Civic platform. They don't have the same engine, but they weight about the same and the Civic actually has slightly higher passenger volume.

Honda Civic: 32 city, 42 highway
Honda HR-V: 29 city, 31 highway

35% better economy in the Civic, probably almost all in aerodynamics.

Toyota Corolla: 30 city, 40 highway
Toyota CH-R: 27 city, 31 highway

30% better economy in the Corolla, which actually has a fair bit more passenger volume.

Chevy Trax: 25 city, 33 highway
Chevy Cruze: 30 city, 40 highway

~22% higher in the Cruze

The effect is more pronounced in EVs because these compact SUVs are typically slightly underpowered compared with their compared sedan cousins, which gives them a slightly efficiency advantage - the more oversized your engine, the more economy you lose, and these tends to hide aerodynamics slightly on the highway.

EDIT:
And just for giggles,

Hyundai Ioniq: 57 city, 59 highway
Kia Niro: 52 city, 49 highway

Same drivetrain, similar passenger volume and weight, 20% economy loss.

That explains why we dont see any SUV EV's

 

[Yuriman]

The trick to getting more range in an EV, or better economy in a gasoline car, is to lower it, use smaller tires with lower rolling resistance, and have a rearward sloping roof - exactly the opposite of the trends in vehicle design.

 

[Yuriman]

MarketWatch recently posted an article on the tipping point:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-death-of-the-gas-powered-car-in-one-chart-2017-10-17

A global tipping point for electric cars could come as early as 2022, as battery costs decrease and concerns about range and infrastructure ease.

That’s from analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who in a little over a year’s time have turned even more optimistic about the future dominance of electric cars over internal-combustion vehicles.

 

[desy]

MarketWatch recently posted an article on the tipping point:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-death-of-the-gas-powered-car-in-one-chart-2017-10-17

A more realistic timeline from the same article has its still more than a decade away and even at that its saying 1 in 3 cars sold not 50/50 "analysts forecast that one in three cars will be purely electric by 2030"

Excluding fuel savings and government subsidies, 2030 would be the year that costs for electric vehicles begin to fall below costs for internal combustion-engine vehicles.

 

[PeterScott]

Why 2017 will go down as the beginning of the end of the internal combustion engine

The tipping point, experts say, follows three developments, each rippling outward with economic and cultural consequences.

1. China’s flexing: In addition to setting aggressive production quotas for EVs, China plans to scrap internal combustion engines entirely as soon as 2030. By taking a lead role in the shift to plug-ins, the world’s largest auto market is forcing the rest of the international community to follow in its footsteps.
2. The debut of Tesla’s Model 3: The company’s first mass-market vehicle has ushered in an era of excitement about EVs because of the car’s slick design and starting price of around $35,000.
3. Major automakers announce plans for an “all-electric future.” General Motors finished 2016 as the world’s third-largest automaker, meaning its decision to create 20 new electric vehicles by 2023 is bound to have an impact on the global marketplace. Volvo, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Audi, BMW and Ford have also announced EV plans in recent months.