Exit Strategy in Iraq

[Rainsford]

I'd like to have a discussion about this without having this turn into Bush bashing/supporting if possible.

I'm just curious how exactly we can "finish" what we're doing in Iraq. I didn't support the war, but now that we are there I'm not so sure we can pick up and leave with things the way they are. Our opposition seems to be mostly random morons who want to grab power for themselves or simply cause trouble. There is no real "group" that needs to be subdued like in most traditional wars, it's just a loose group of people who hate us.

Now I suppose we could just kill them all, but there seem to be far too many for that. I also don't think the problem comes from inside Iraq, so convincing all Iraqis to support the US wouldn't even help. Honestly I can still see us policing Iraq in 10 years, there doesn't seem to be an obvious way to solve the problem of the US being unwanted in the Arab world without pulling out of Iraq, which we can't do while it is still such a mess. It's really a catch-22.

 

[Todd33]

I thik Bush Sr. said it best if anyone has the quote. It's a mess that will last years.

 

[Spamela]

Declare victory & leave?

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Spamela
Declare victory & leave?

Well I guess we did win, and quite soundly too. But if we leave now I would be willing to bet someone just as extreme as Saddam will take over, quite possibly someone who supports the terrorists this time, and then we (and Iraqis) will be really borked.

 

[maddogchen]

I don't like the term exit strategy. Why plan how to leave when you haven't finished the job? Lets concentrate on doing the job rather than try to cut and run.

Lets look at past conflicts:

Conflict Country Win/Lose? Exited?
WWII- (Japan/Germany) Won still there!
Korean War- (S. Korea) Neither still there!
Vietnam War- (Vietnam) Lost Yes
Panama-(Panama) Won are we still there?
Gulf War- (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) Won still there!
Somalia (Somalia) Lost Yes
Balkans (Kosovo) Sort of won still there!

Hmm there is a slight trend...
maybe not exiting isn't that bad?

 

[cpumaster]

Originally posted by: maddogchen
I don't like the term exit strategy. Why plan how to leave when you haven't finished the job? Lets concentrate on doing the job rather than try to cut and run.

Lets look at past conflicts:

Conflict Country Win/Lose? Exited?
WWII- (Japan/Germany) Won still there!
Korean War- (S. Korea) Neither still there!
Vietnam War- (Vietnam) Lost Yes
Panama-(Panama) Won are we still there?
Gulf War- (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) Won still there!
Somalia (Somalia) Lost Yes
Balkans (Kosovo) Sort of won still there!

Hmm there is a slight trend...
maybe not exiting isn't that bad?

Hmm I think the better question is not exit strategy per se, but how do we withdraw majority of troops, hand over the real power (aka military) to the govt. of Iraq.

The answer is we already in first step of the exit strategy, ie hand over civilian power to the Iraqis temp. govt. I don't forsee us handling over the military power until at least the real election in Iraq has been accomplished. Even then it probably depend on who won the election, how ready is the Iraqis army in taking over the duty & responsibilty, not to mention the real threat of civil war among the groups in Iraq.

And I forsee a scenario where we are not going to completely leave the area, after all one of the reasons for going to this war is to establish presence (real presence) in the region, so we probably will maintain some kinda bases around Iraq... I could see us having bases in the Kurdistan area, Western Iraq (Syria border), Southern Iraq (Basra, etc). Hey we already paid the down payment, make no sense to abandon it all now...
BTW, I think we no longer have bases in Panama...

 

[nageov3t]

1. declare victory
2. ?
3. democracy in the middle east!

 

[Todd33]

Steal underwear!

 

[Risiko]

Yeah, the situation in Iraq sucks. I was for the war to help the Iraqis live much better lives, but I've retracted that opinion to say the least. If terrorists throughout the Middle East are doubly more inflamed (providing many more recruits, more zeal) because of the war, if the future of Iraq doesn't look particularly bright (how can it, kidnapping and kilings go on all the time. Normal, everyday Iraqis are in constant fear), the world opinion has sharply turned against us, and money is pouring into another nation when we need it for much here at home, when defeating Iraq has given the U.S. even more military clout and increase it's sphere of influence (More military power. How great. How about we stop trying to be an all-encompassing world mini-god.), and add that to the many civilian and military casualties (not just those dead, but those wounded (many more than the dead), those who've lost homes, businesses, livelihoods, relatives, friends...

...and we have one big mistake, I'm sorry to say.

 

[LunarRay]

Remember back when Reza was in Iran and our buddy.. then he was ousted and Iran became our enemy and Iraq our buddy... well.. the solution is to buy them off without allowing the militant Islamic faction getting more of a foot hold.. arm them to the teeth.. make them the strongest nation in the area.. then when they have a taste of all that power they will know what it is to be free... and will be our buddy so they can maintain all that top rated war munitions to stay free.. The folks we put in power that is.

 

[Painman]

There was never any strategy to win the peace. It was irrelevant. There was never any exit strategy. On the contrary, there is a persistent presence strategy. The PNAC tail wagging the military/industrial dog.

Read

 

[Zebo]

We did'nt have an exit strategy because there is'nt one. We will have 4-5 permanet bases in Iraq by design. Eventually the indiginous population will become cooperative or die. Think Pueto rico or the former phillipines.

 

[Pjotr]

For years to come, at least 5-10 years, USA is not exiting. This is not a good situation, but clearly foreseeable by millions of people and leaders in over 100 nations before the war started. This is also the reason most nations elected not to join USAs war. The only reason most would join is if it was a UN led operation, something that was coming down the line later anyway.

 

[Fingolfin269]

You actually think we're leaving?

 

[chess9]

Panama and Kosovo really didn't impact the broader region or have the global impact of Iraq. We have alienated possibly the largest religious group on the planet. The scale of this debacle is completely misunderstood and understated by far too many people. The implications for our foreign relations are significant in the short term and long term. To try to isolate Iraq as though it were Kosovo or even Germany is nonsense, but is typical of what I hear from the right wing apologists for this administration.

We are waist deep in the big muddy and can't move one way or the other.

-Robert

 

[LordMagnusKain]

Exit Strategy in Iraq

that's in, and of itself, a bias question.

We have no 'exit strategy' because we don't intend to ever exit, jus as we never exited Germany.

 

[Pjotr]

"Democracy is coming to the U.S.A." -L. Cohen

... that is after making a stop over in Iraq.

 

[Lioness]

"Exit Strategy in Iraq". If your referring to a complete pull out of our troops, I believe this won't happen. My thought is that we will maintain a permanent presence via military bases.

If your referring to an exit strategy in the reduction of troops, I believe cpumaster has addressed this.

quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Democracy is coming to the U.S.A." -L. Cohen
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"... that is after making a stop over in Iraq."



I would like to add the entire middle east.

 

[Darkhawk28]

Hey Todd, here's the quote you needed.....

"Trying to eliminate Saddam, extending the ground war into an occupation of Iraq, would have violated our guideline about not changing objectives in midstream, engaging in "mission creep," and would have incurred incalculable human and political costs. Apprehending him was probably impossible. We had been unable to find Noriega in Panama, which we knew intimately. We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq. The coalition would instantly have collapsed, the Arabs deserting it in anger and other allies pulling out as well. Under the circumstances, there was no viable "exit strategy" we could see, violating another of our principles. Furthermore, we had been self-consciously trying to set a pattern for handling aggression in the post-Cold War world. Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally exceeding the United Nations' mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression that we hoped to establish. Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land. It would have been a dramatically different -- and perhaps barren -- outcome. "

George Herbert Walker Bush
A World Transformed