Fermi possibly delayed til March or April

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cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
27,052
357
126
But if the ship date to the AIBs was missed (from the link in the OP), how could they know what gaming performance is?

They may know more than we know. BFG, and EVGA are premier partners for Nvidia. You see XFX producing ATI cards now and almost every other manufacturer doesn't rely primarily on graphics cards sales for their revenue. EVGA is moving to Motherboards more recently and doing a great job penetrating the niche overclocker's market in that area.

Anyway my point is Nvidia probably gives them enough info (or they are under contract in some way) so they do not move to producing ATI cards. Just because we don't know does not mean nobody knows.


Honestly I don't care when the new cards come out. When I'm ready to buy I will look at the market then. I don't intend to buy a new card just because a new card is announced and/or released. I think most people do the same. They buy the best card that fits their price bracket at the time they are looking to purchase. Which means that a lot of people are not buying 5870 cards for their new builds because they just cannot find them. Next best alternative is from Nvidia. When I'm ready to buy a new card or card(s) because I might be moving to dual cards soon, I will evaluate what's available then and buy the best for me. I don't necessarily have to have the latest wizbang cards out.
 

Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
5,529
0
0
But if the ship date to the AIBs was missed (from the link in the OP), how could they know what gaming performance is?

I'm sure they've had access to beta or even alpha hardware. Not to mention those rumors are highly unsubstantiated.

Besides if ATI can only produce a small amount a week and has to spread them out to not only OEMs but board partners. I can't imagine anyone wanting to jump on that.
 

SlowSpyder

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
17,305
1,001
126
True...I forgot that even hardware can have alpha and beta versions.

Does anyone know if when they go for a new revision of the silicon, is it just for bug fixes, or can Nvidia be getting a new revision with the idea of looking for higher clock speeds?
 
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Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Does anyone know if when they go for a new revision of the silicon, is it just for bug fixes, or can Nvidia be getting a new revision with the idea of looking for higher clock speeds?

Yes.

Just like with CPU's there are steppings to fix critical "fatal flaw" type bugs (TLB in B2 stepping Phenom) and then there are steppings which fix minor non-showstopper bugs/errata but are primarily designed to maximize gross margins...be it higher clockspeeds so higher ASPs or to eliminate speedpaths or power-consumption so parametric yield for existing SKU's can be increased.

My take on current Fermi A3 stepping is that since TSMC can't really yield cost-effective Fermi's at this time anyways there is time for Nvidia to continue to improve the design for gross margins (clockspeed, etc) purposes while TSMC gets their 40nm up to speed.
 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
3,491
0
76
It's amazing how ATI having difficulty producing enough chips is equated to Nvidia being unable to release a chip.

Fermi is looking like Nvidia's 2900. And the 2900 was Ati's 5700. So Fermi is nvidia's 5700 !

My logic impressed, a hypnotic effect, a latent patent you can call it a gift.
 

Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
5,529
0
0
My take on current Fermi A3 stepping is that since TSMC can't really yield cost-effective Fermi's at this time anyways there is time for Nvidia to continue to improve the design for gross margins (clockspeed, etc) purposes while TSMC gets their 40nm up to speed.

That's my thought as well. There was some info months ago that Fermi had taped out. I'm sure NVIDIA could have rushed a card to market, but they probably knew there would be major supply issues.

Clearly this is what ATI is going through. So why not improve the design and bring real product to market. If Fudzilla is to be believed...the GTX 260s are still selling well. I would imagine the other cards are probably also selling plenty.
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/16275/1/

So a lack of supply from the competition + current product selling well + no major DX11 titles = room to breath.

It seems NVIDIA was able to actually benefit from the 40nm debacle.
 

nitromullet

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2004
9,031
36
91
It's amazing how ATI having difficulty producing enough chips is equated to Nvidia being unable to release a chip.

Fermi is looking like Nvidia's 2900. And the 2900 was Ati's 5700. So Fermi is nvidia's 5700 !

My logic impressed, a hypnotic effect, a latent patent you can call it a gift.

I don't think it is being equated to, but it is true that ATI is not really able to capitalize fully on what would otherwise be a huge advantage because of supply issues. This is what is making this generation not like 8800GTX vs. 2900XT. G80 had widespread availability out of the gate.

Also, we'll have to see how Fermi performs before we can declare it a failure. It's already late, which isn't a good sign. However, if the chip performs well, people will still buy it in Q2 2010. To go back to the 8800GTX vs. 2900XT comparison, Fermi would have to be slower then the 5870 for this to be true. Basically, you have to have a situation where people wait months for an inferior card.

...Anyway, I think it's a bit to early to declare a victory/loss at this point. Right now though, the scales are clearly tipped a ATI's favor.

edit: I didn't cite 9700 Pro vs. 5800 Ultra, not because I didn't want to use a negative NV example, but because I don't quite remember the details as well (I really only became a true enthusiast around the X800/6800 era).
 
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akugami

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2005
5,837
2,101
136
Say what you will but the later it takes Fermi to come out, the worse it will be for nVidia. As of right now, things aren't bad for nVidia, they may be late but supply issues by TSMC are ensuring the negative effects are minimal. This is very good news for nVidia because unlike when ATI missed their release dates (announced or not) on previous cards, nVidia was there to capitalize and take up a lot of sales that would otherwise have gone to ATI. ATI hasn't had that luxury due to TSMC's manufacturing issues.

The bad news for nVidia is that the longer it takes them to actually release the product and ramp up production, even if in a limited fashion, the more ATI stands to benefit. Now, these are only rumors right now but if nVidia does take until late March or even April you can bet that ATI will have tweaked refresh products rolling out soonish to better compete with nVidia's cards. I think nVidia could lose some of the projected performance advantages in that case.

With the fact that all news indicating TSMC should have all of their marbles together by the end of November means that from early to mid December onward we should see a much higher amount of Radeon 5 series cards on the market and we could see some sales start to swing ATI's way. Assuming that there is much higher availability by the middle of December and that nVidia can't release a card till late February at the earliest then ATI may have close to an effective two month head start. Assuming as the latest rumors indicate that a worse case scenario has nVidia not releasing a video card until March means that ATI would have a whole quarter of decent availability.

As well as nVidia has been performing, you know they have to be getting antsy when looking at the possibility of three months of decent to maybe high availability of Radeon 5 series cards while they still haven't released their next gen product. The way I look at it is that if by the end of December we haven't heard much from nVidia then it looks like they are having some serious issues with Fermi. nVidia can't sit idly by and watch ATI start pushing the Radeon 5 series cards without at least some "leaked" benchmarks or gathering OEM's and giving them an "inside look" that will usually be leaked to counter any positive press that ATI can generate.

If nVidia comes out too late, it could run into a respin of the 5870 that may close some of the projected performance gap. ATI isn't going to sit idly and not work on a respin until nVidia is out with Fermi after all. While nVidia isn't in any trouble and is still doing quite well with only the GT200 series, it needs Fermi to be released ASAP. The longer nVidia takes to release Fermi, the more it favors ATI.
 

yh125d

Diamond Member
Dec 23, 2006
6,907
0
76
The longer nVidia takes to release Fermi, the more it favors ATI.

Unless nVidia is being productive in this idle time, improving and tweaking fermi while waiting for TSMC to catch up, making Fermi even better than expected, which could spell disaster for ATI, especially if NV will then be able to compete on price
 

SlowSpyder

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
17,305
1,001
126
Yes.

Just like with CPU's there are steppings to fix critical "fatal flaw" type bugs (TLB in B2 stepping Phenom) and then there are steppings which fix minor non-showstopper bugs/errata but are primarily designed to maximize gross margins...be it higher clockspeeds so higher ASPs or to eliminate speedpaths or power-consumption so parametric yield for existing SKU's can be increased.

My take on current Fermi A3 stepping is that since TSMC can't really yield cost-effective Fermi's at this time anyways there is time for Nvidia to continue to improve the design for gross margins (clockspeed, etc) purposes while TSMC gets their 40nm up to speed.

That certainly makes sense. I didn't know if there's any liklihood that now that Nvidia knows what the 5870's performance looks like, if the clock speeds they envisioned for the A2 silicon Fermi ended up not being enough in testing to beat it, or at least beat it by enough. And with the 40nm process problems, it was decided to go for another respin.

The fact that they haven't shipped out the build kits confirms earlier reports about Nvidia wanting A3 silicon maybe. Though I'm not sure if the dates add up, or if this delay is due to something else.

http://vr-zone.com/articles/-rumour...to-be-a3-revision-q2-2010-/8014.html?doc=8014
 
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uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,578
2,913
136
That's my thought as well. There was some info months ago that Fermi had taped out. I'm sure NVIDIA could have rushed a card to market, but they probably knew there would be major supply issues.

Clearly this is what ATI is going through. So why not improve the design and bring real product to market. If Fudzilla is to be believed...the GTX 260s are still selling well. I would imagine the other cards are probably also selling plenty.
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/16275/1/

So a lack of supply from the competition + current product selling well + no major DX11 titles = room to breath.

It seems NVIDIA was able to actually benefit from the 40nm debacle.

This train of thought is so far from what would be considered normal business logic that I tweaked my neck trying to follow it.
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,578
2,913
136
Say what you will but the later it takes Fermi to come out, the worse it will be for nVidia. As of right now, things aren't bad for nVidia, they may be late but supply issues by TSMC are ensuring the negative effects are minimal. This is very good news for nVidia because unlike when ATI missed their release dates (announced or not) on previous cards, nVidia was there to capitalize and take up a lot of sales that would otherwise have gone to ATI. ATI hasn't had that luxury due to TSMC's manufacturing issues.

The bad news for nVidia is that the longer it takes them to actually release the product and ramp up production, even if in a limited fashion, the more ATI stands to benefit. Now, these are only rumors right now but if nVidia does take until late March or even April you can bet that ATI will have tweaked refresh products rolling out soonish to better compete with nVidia's cards. I think nVidia could lose some of the projected performance advantages in that case.

With the fact that all news indicating TSMC should have all of their marbles together by the end of November means that from early to mid December onward we should see a much higher amount of Radeon 5 series cards on the market and we could see some sales start to swing ATI's way. Assuming that there is much higher availability by the middle of December and that nVidia can't release a card till late February at the earliest then ATI may have close to an effective two month head start. Assuming as the latest rumors indicate that a worse case scenario has nVidia not releasing a video card until March means that ATI would have a whole quarter of decent availability.

As well as nVidia has been performing, you know they have to be getting antsy when looking at the possibility of three months of decent to maybe high availability of Radeon 5 series cards while they still haven't released their next gen product. The way I look at it is that if by the end of December we haven't heard much from nVidia then it looks like they are having some serious issues with Fermi. nVidia can't sit idly by and watch ATI start pushing the Radeon 5 series cards without at least some "leaked" benchmarks or gathering OEM's and giving them an "inside look" that will usually be leaked to counter any positive press that ATI can generate.

If nVidia comes out too late, it could run into a respin of the 5870 that may close some of the projected performance gap. ATI isn't going to sit idly and not work on a respin until nVidia is out with Fermi after all. While nVidia isn't in any trouble and is still doing quite well with only the GT200 series, it needs Fermi to be released ASAP. The longer nVidia takes to release Fermi, the more it favors ATI.

Looking a little further down the road, if Nvidia has this much trouble getting fermi out the door, ATI has cypress refreshes out in may/june, and are threatening a new arch in oct/nov if I remember. If Nvidia is finally getting volume of fermi out the door in april/may, the new ATI arch will be out 3-4 months later, which gives Nvidia almost no time to really enjoy any projected performance advantage, real or otherwise.
 

Janooo

Golden Member
Aug 22, 2005
1,067
13
81
That's my thought as well. There was some info months ago that Fermi had taped out. I'm sure NVIDIA could have rushed a card to market, but they probably knew there would be major supply issues.

Clearly this is what ATI is going through. So why not improve the design and bring real product to market. If Fudzilla is to be believed...the GTX 260s are still selling well. I would imagine the other cards are probably also selling plenty.
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/16275/1/

So a lack of supply from the competition + current product selling well + no major DX11 titles = room to breath.

It seems NVIDIA was able to actually benefit from the 40nm debacle.

Your points are beyond pathetic.
 

GaiaHunter

Diamond Member
Jul 13, 2008
3,634
180
106
Is it the facts that bothered you? Your reply was not clear enough and lacking substance.

I think he is referring to the fact ATI have 4xxx series cards out in the market.

So, ATI is not only selling 5xxx series cards, in lower numbers than they wished, they are also selling 4xxx cards, which are already regarded as better bang per buck (at least for non die hard fans) if a buyer is looking for gaming power.

Additionally, nothing stops ATI to improve their design - clearly the current 5xxx series design is working. And if it is working and was working already 2 months ago, one would assume ATI is working on refreshes/tweaks at least since the last 2 months.

So, while the 5xxx series is a bit elusive, the Fermi is completely elusive.

Concluding, I think it would be better for NVIDIA to have Fermi out, working flawlessly than "to have that breath room", because any sale the 5xxx does, could have been a NVIDIA sale if NVIDIA had a competing part in the market.
 

Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,209
50
91
Don't worry about the sales guys. Unless you're a stockholder, really you shouldn't have a care in the world about sales.
 

akugami

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2005
5,837
2,101
136
Unless nVidia is being productive in this idle time, improving and tweaking fermi while waiting for TSMC to catch up, making Fermi even better than expected, which could spell disaster for ATI, especially if NV will then be able to compete on price

I haven't looked too much into the reasons why Fermi is late. Which is the million dollar question. Are they having issues with Fermi's design much like how ATI had a design circuit bug on the X1800 that caused it to ship very late? Or was it just a case of being too aggressive with their design and having a lot on the table causing them to run later than they anticipated?

In general, it's a given that nVidia will be continually tweaking Fermi to get it to run better/faster. The question is how much they have to devote to this task. Fermi isn't going to be out in Februrary (or later) because nVidia is feeling charitable or that nVidia didn't want to compete for the limited number of available. That suggestion by a certain someone is completely ludicrous. There are no charities in business. You do everything you legally can to gain an advantage and if your competition is down, you step on his neck (figuratively speaking) to make sure he stays down.

Don't worry about the sales guys. Unless you're a stockholder, really you shouldn't have a care in the world about sales.

True, but aside from being a gamer, I'm a business oriented person and the reasons behind business decisions interests me as well as how the market responds.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
Given a $100 250 or $140 260 vs $170 5770 it's a pretty clear choice re: which card to get.

You also forgot that there is a HIS 4890 for $159.99 right now: http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...-299-_-Product

Also it's not that easy to find $140 GTX 260 in stock right now. Most are in the $160-170 range.

The problem is because NV has nothing on the table right now and ATI is out of stock on 5850/5870, with 5770 way overpriced, it is really an unfortunate outcome for the consumer.

Suddenly those 4870 1GBs that were available 3 months ago for $125 after MIR or $130 GTX 260s sound bitter sweet.
 
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Paktu

Senior member
Oct 31, 2004
508
0
71
The 5 series for ATI seems to be the exact opposite of Nvidia's 5 (FX) series- it runs cool, quiet, and has a big performance lead. The one thing they seem to have in common is that the yields are crap.
 

ronnn

Diamond Member
May 22, 2003
3,918
0
71
I tend to agree with Wreckage. Nvidia could have produced 2 or 3 cards for christmas - as originally planned, but since ati is easily selling everything they can make - 2 or 3 cards with green drivers just wouldn't make any difference to ati's bottom line and would further ruin their reputation for semi hard launches.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
12,968
221
106
Why is that? ATi is immediately selling every card that comes off the production line. Seems to be a good position to be in. All they need now is for TSMC to ramp up production. If the Fermi delays hold true, ATi will have plenty of time to get their 5800 series out en masse.

And if it's proving this difficult for TSMC to get a 2 million transistor GPU out in large numbers on 40nm, can you imagine the issues they'll have with Nvidia's 3 million transistor design?

ATi's troubles will be Nvidia's troubles X2.

Doesn't yield get exponentially worse as die size increases?

So with ATI already have problems with ~334 mm2 (or whatever it is) I can only imagine problems are a heck of a lot worse at ~500mm2.
 

Schmide

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2002
5,590
724
126
Is it the facts that bothered you? Your reply was not clear enough and lacking substance.

You put forth a post of all this speculation and back it up with fudzilla, which ironically I believe you blasted in another post, and call it facts? It is less what you say and more the blatant double standards that piss most of us off.
 
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