Just four months after an alliance of conservative Christians was threatening a churchgoer revolt unless President Bush championed an amendment banning same-sex marriage, members say they have been surprised and disappointed by what they call a tepid response from the pews.
Most of the groups supporting the proposed federal constitutional amendment concede that it appears all but dead in Congress for this election year.
As Massachusetts prepares to become the first state in the nation to allow same-sex marriage on Monday, several high-profile conservatives say they are now pinning their hopes mainly on reaction to events there, betting that scenes of gay weddings in Provincetown may set off a public outcry.
In a last effort to publicize their cause before the impending wave of same-sex marriages, conservative Christian groups are organizing an emergency telecast to churches around the country, bringing African-American clergy members to Washington to lobby the Congressional Black Caucus, and sending members of a group for people who say they are formerly gay to make the rounds of Capitol Hill as well.
Still, the opponents of gay marriage say they are puzzling over why such a volatile cultural issue is not spurring more rank-and-file conservative Christians to rise up in support of the amendment. They are especially frustrated, they say, because opinion polls show that a large majority of voters oppose gay marriage.
hmmm...could it be people are tired of the rhetoric from the far-right and realize it's not that big of a deal compared to the horrors being committed by the current administration?
"Our side is basically asleep right now," Matt Daniels, founder of the Alliance for Marriage, which helped draft the proposed amendment, said in an interview last week.
The Rev. Louis P. Sheldon, chairman of the Traditional Values Coalition, said: "I don't see any traction. The calls aren't coming in and I am not sure why."
Some conservatives warn that the Christian leaders rallying behind the amendment may now face a loss of credibility. Their influence with evangelical believers is a subject of keen interest in Washington, in part because the Bush campaign has made ensuring their turnout at the polls a top priority.
"The danger from the beginning was that if you make your stand on the amendment and you don't win, then you may have undercut your position," said Richard Lessner, the executive director of the American Conservative Union and a former official of the Family Research Council, a Christian conservative group. "They have staked so much on it, they have put all these eggs in one basket and now they are going to lose."
Gay rights groups argue that social conservatives in Washington overestimated the level of anxiety about gay marriage among their supporters. "Other issues are far more important to most Americans, including evangelicals ? issues like the economy, jobs, health care, the war in Iraq," said Matt Foreman, executive director of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force.
The amendment's backers contend that the reason people are not responding more vocally is that many grass-roots conservatives do not yet understand how same-sex marriages affect them personally. Although gay groups argue that same-sex marriages involve only the couple marrying, many Christian conservative leaders argue that recognizing such marriages will undermine cultural support for traditional families.
The amendment's backers say that they always knew approval by Congress would be difficult, but that they had expected to get far enough that every candidate in the country would have to take a position on it in the fall. But although the amendment is bogged down, some opponents of same-sex marriage say they see evidence of support for their cause at the state level.
Some noted that Ohio, a traditional swing state, recently passed a law blocking not only same-sex marriage but civil unions. And five states that are considered reliably conservative ? Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Utah ? have put state constitutional amendments banning gay marriage on the November ballot.
"The thing that we keep focusing on is, there is no place that people have voted for same-sex marriage," said Gary Bauer, a social conservative who unsuccessfully sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2000. Mr. Bauer, the founder of the organization American Values, noted that it was a court that ordered Massachusetts to recognize same-sex marriage.
Conservatives are also trying to put state constitutional amendments on the ballot in several states that are considered pivotal swing states in the presidential election: Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oregon, North Carolina and Arkansas. Missouri's Legislature voted Friday to add a ballot measure, too. The ballot questions could help motivate traditionalists to go to the polls, which would be a boon for President Bush and lower-level conservative candidates.
Cheryl Jacques, president of the Human Rights Campaign, a gay rights group, called the ballot initiatives a political stunt, which she said was "all about the president energizing his base and dividing and conquering in this election," adding, "Gay and lesbian people are just being used as pawns."
But Mr. Bauer said that if conservative candidates receive a boost, it will not be by design. "It wasn't conservative judges on the Massachusetts Supreme Court that forced this issue; it wasn't a pro-Bush mayor of San Francisco who forced the issue," he said. "We didn't pick the timing. The gay rights movement picked the timing. Obviously our side is going to respond, and it happens to be an election year."
Although the House Judiciary Committee held hearings on the federal marriage amendment last week, staff members said the committee was unlikely to have time to vote on a bill by the end of the year. And several prominent social conservatives said Republican leaders of the House had indicated that they do not want to bring the measure up for a vote unless it appears likely to pass the Senate, which is more moderate.
Both conservatives and gay rights groups say there is not enough support to approve the amendment, although that might change if its text were somehow revised.
In an interview, Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican who supports the amendment, put the chances that the Senate might try to bring it up for a vote at "better than 50-50."
"I think people are in shock," Senator Cornyn said. "I think people are still having a hard time believing this is real. One of the most common responses I hear is, `This is just in Massachusetts, why does it concern us in other states?' "
Like most of the amendment's supporters, Senator Cornyn is betting that the spread of Massachusetts marriage licenses will drive the issue home. "When people understand that there are same-sex couples that will get married under Massachusetts law and then move to other states and demand that those marriages are recognized by the laws of other states, that is when people will understand this," he said.
But Mr. Foreman of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force suggested that watching gay weddings in Massachusetts would make people more accepting, not less.
"The minute you pose the question to somebody, `How will this hurt you?,' they never have an answer," he said. "As this discussion has gone on and people have seen these images of regular people thrilled to be married, it has dispelled the myth and a lot of the fear around same-sex marriage."
Not that the opponents of gay marriage are giving up on the amendment. Richard Land, president of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention, said the amendment's supporters wanted votes in Congress so they could work to replace anyone who voted against it.
For months, Dr. Land has told President Bush's political adviser Karl Rove and members of Congress that no issue has upset ordinary evangelical Christians as much as the threat of gay marriage. Last week he stood by that view, but he acknowledged that parishioners around the country might not have voiced their opinions to elected officials as loudly as he had expected.
"We need to do a better job of educating our base," Dr. Land said, "although I don't think we can do better than Massachusetts is going to do for us."