Fort McMurray Wild Fire

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twinrider1

Diamond Member
Sep 28, 2003
4,096
64
91
Every time I see this thread title I think of this guy and start humming the My Three Sons theme.

 

Brian Stirling

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2010
3,964
2
0
Most people are. They were probably on level 1-2 evac depending on proximity to the fire leading up to the evac. Once they set you level 3 you get out, but they dont force you to leave either. When you have a large population ready to leave and then the warning goes it's no big surprise it turns into a cluster getting out. Couple that with how fast a wildfire moves (it generates its own wind) and its not a surprise people are barely getting out. It's all fine and dandy to sit at a keyboard and preach, but until you are in that situation and have dealt with it it's hard to comprehend. Wildfires are no joke, but neither is mass evacuation on the off chance it flares.

OK, look, I don't want to belabor this anymore than needed, but even with a single road 70K people should not take much more than 4 hours to get everyone out. My review of the videos seemed to indicate that almost no one left before the fire was burning there neighborhood. 70K people isn't millions -- not by a long shot!

I feel bad that many will have lost everything and even worse it sounds like the energy company is going to use this event as an excuse to prune labor (people) during the already tough time the industry is going through with low oil prices and higher cost associated with processing low quality tar sands into sell-able oil/fuel.

But, the idea that they had no idea the fire could turn there way is ridiculous and with the trees so dry and flammable it's surely a bad call from both the governmental folks and the locals that waited too long. I hope there's an after action report done and lessons are learned.


Brian
 

KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
30,031
45,270
136
OK, look, I don't want to belabor this anymore than needed, but even with a single road 70K people should not take much more than 4 hours to get everyone out. My review of the videos seemed to indicate that almost no one left before the fire was burning there neighborhood. 70K people isn't millions -- not by a long shot!

I feel bad that many will have lost everything and even worse it sounds like the energy company is going to use this event as an excuse to prune labor (people) during the already tough time the industry is going through with low oil prices and higher cost associated with processing low quality tar sands into sell-able oil/fuel.

But, the idea that they had no idea the fire could turn there way is ridiculous and with the trees so dry and flammable it's surely a bad call from both the governmental folks and the locals that waited too long. I hope there's an after action report done and lessons are learned.


Brian

Are you in the monday morning quarterbacking hall of fame?
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,231
5,806
126
If the officials that managed this do not learn from it then this will happen again! What part of that do you fail to grasp?


Brian

There is probably little to learn from this. It's easy to look back and see what could have been done differently. Looking into the future is next to impossible though. You seem overly fixated on blaming somebody, yet I am unaware of a single Death occurring. In time it might turn out that some refused to leave and ended up dead, but that's besides the point.

The tragedy here is in the loss of Homes/Property. Not in the loss of Lives.

edit: Google revealed a 15 year old girl died in a traffic accident. That's all I have found so far.
 
Last edited:

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
edit: Google revealed a 15 year old girl died in a traffic accident. That's all I have found so far.

It was actually two, her and a guy from another family. Could say that if they didn't have to evacuate, they'd be fine.

But I'd be more concerned about the lung cancer from breathing in all that smoke.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,231
5,806
126
It was actually two, her and a guy from another family. Could say that if they didn't have to evacuate, they'd be fine.

But I'd be more concerned about the lung cancer from breathing in all that smoke.

My Mom just told me about the second one. It was a cousin of the girl killed.
 

-slash-

Senior member
Jan 21, 2014
361
1
41
OK, look, I don't want to belabor this anymore than needed, but even with a single road 70K people should not take much more than 4 hours to get everyone out. My review of the videos seemed to indicate that almost no one left before the fire was burning there neighborhood. 70K people isn't millions -- not by a long shot!

I feel bad that many will have lost everything and even worse it sounds like the energy company is going to use this event as an excuse to prune labor (people) during the already tough time the industry is going through with low oil prices and higher cost associated with processing low quality tar sands into sell-able oil/fuel.

But, the idea that they had no idea the fire could turn there way is ridiculous and with the trees so dry and flammable it's surely a bad call from both the governmental folks and the locals that waited too long. I hope there's an after action report done and lessons are learned.


Brian

Yeah sure 70k people who are "prepped" to leave who start panicking trying to leave while a wildfire is bearing down on them. You do realize they can start running 40mph+ when they flare and start generating their own firestorm right? Your 4 hour time window is still too long when it runs. Natures a bitch, especially when it comes to wildfires.

I'm gonna venture a guess you dont live somewhere wildfires are prone do you?
 

Brian Stirling

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2010
3,964
2
0
There is probably little to learn from this. It's easy to look back and see what could have been done differently. Looking into the future is next to impossible though. You seem overly fixated on blaming somebody, yet I am unaware of a single Death occurring. In time it might turn out that some refused to leave and ended up dead, but that's besides the point.

The tragedy here is in the loss of Homes/Property. Not in the loss of Lives.

edit: Google revealed a 15 year old girl died in a traffic accident. That's all I have found so far.


It would be sad if nothing was learned here. My take away is:

1. If you live in an area that's bone dry with highly flammable fuel (dry pine) it would be wise to have plans ahead of time to leave if a fire were to break out.

2. If a fire breaks out it would be wise to know what direction it's moving and whether a change in weather could bring it towards you.

3. If the fire begins to move towards you and the conditions say it will move fast then leave NOW! Period!

Of course, the major lessons here need to be learned by the officials that are managing the situation. Ultimately, it is the officials that have to command people leave as people, no matter where they are, tend to sit tight thinking they can ride it out. But, what happens is the people the decide to leave get in trouble and call for help which takes emergency people away from other jobs they may need to do.

This is not a Canada thing, it's a human nature thing and you don't bury you head in the sand and hope it goes away -- it won't! Trust me, there will be an after action report on this and I guarantee it will be scathing!


Brian
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,231
5,806
126
It would be sad if nothing was learned here. My take away is:

1. If you live in an area that's bone dry with highly flammable fuel (dry pine) it would be wise to have plans ahead of time to leave if a fire were to break out.

2. If a fire breaks out it would be wise to know what direction it's moving and whether a change in weather could bring it towards you.

3. If the fire begins to move towards you and the conditions say it will move fast then leave NOW! Period!

Of course, the major lessons here need to be learned by the officials that are managing the situation. Ultimately, it is the officials that have to command people leave as people, no matter where they are, tend to sit tight thinking they can ride it out. But, what happens is the people the decide to leave get in trouble and call for help which takes emergency people away from other jobs they may need to do.

This is not a Canada thing, it's a human nature thing and you don't bury you head in the sand and hope it goes away -- it won't! Trust me, there will be an after action report on this and I guarantee it will be scathing!


Brian

I'm sure there will be a report, it won't be scathing though.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Here's an interactive GIS map for reference and so I don't have to look for it later.

http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/interactive-map

If I'm reading the map right, looks like fire is mainly spreading in the SE now to the middle of nowhere. Fire that was heading towards the oil sands to the north is now fairly small.

There's also a new ortho from May 6 that shows the damage pretty clearly. That unbuilt development that's a giant patch of dirt probably helped the north end of the city a bit -- a neighborhood still got burned down that way though. Weirdest thing is how the neighborhoods to the south with <60% damage were spared in some parts.
 

-slash-

Senior member
Jan 21, 2014
361
1
41
it would be sad if nothing was learned here. My take away is:

1. If you live in an area that's bone dry with highly flammable fuel (dry pine) it would be wise to have plans ahead of time to leave if a fire were to break out.

2. If a fire breaks out it would be wise to know what direction it's moving and whether a change in weather could bring it towards you.

3. If the fire begins to move towards you and the conditions say it will move fast then leave now! Period!

Of course, the major lessons here need to be learned by the officials that are managing the situation. Ultimately, it is the officials that have to command people leave as people, no matter where they are, tend to sit tight thinking they can ride it out. But, what happens is the people the decide to leave get in trouble and call for help which takes emergency people away from other jobs they may need to do.

This is not a canada thing, it's a human nature thing and you don't bury you head in the sand and hope it goes away -- it won't! Trust me, there will be an after action report on this and i guarantee it will be scathing!


Brian

:d:d:d:d:d:d
 

Eli

Super Moderator | Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
50,419
8
81
It likely won't be over until the rains come this fall.

Assuming that still happens. Isn't watching our climate state change fun?!
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
In case you want to check out the damage using aerial/ortho images of the town before and after the fire... This site gives you the two maps side by side.

http://firemap.rmwb.ca/?hootPostID=15458a9037d301463d144aaa5481a59f

And every time they talk about economic losses, they still only seem to talk about oil sands production. They even talk about the economic benefit rebuilding will have. Who the hell is paying for this "free" insurance that doesn't impact the economy?
 
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