[FUDZILLA] No Broadwell for Desktop

[Fjodor2001]

I'm not sure you're aware of this, but intel sells a TON of mobile core i5, core i7, celerons and pentiums. Those are by far their highest sellers, more than their desktop chips. Capacity won't be an issue.

I said tablet and mobile phone CPUs. And no, Intel doesn't sell many of those. ARM rules that segment.

The better rhetorical question for you is "when will ARM have a chip comparable to the core architecture? [...] -never"

ARM does not intend to compete in that segment, so the question is moot. Intel on the other hand says it intends to compete with ARM in the tablet and mobile phone space. So far they have not done that very successfully though.

 

[exar333]

If all it offers is lower power then I dont see why anyone would want to pay the premium for it on the desktop. Who cares about an extra 13 watts on a desktop? Especially if you're running a GPU that can pull over a hundred or even two hundred?

This. Most people are waiting for the 'tock', and many just buy buy the 'tick' because they can, honestly, not because they really want it. I don't see much changing with this.

Mobiles, on the other hand, LOVE the ticks, so the model will still work for Intel.

 

[Zor Prime]

There was an Intel engineer who said around half a year ago or further out now that Broadwell was going to be a BGA part and said nothing of a ZIF socket solution.

I'm sure some company will solder one on an ITX board ...

 

[Fjodor2001]

This. Most people are waiting for the 'tock', and many just buy buy the 'tick' because they can, honestly, not because they really want it. I don't see much changing with this.

Mobiles, on the other hand, LOVE the ticks, so the model will still work for Intel.

Perhaps some years ago. But now both tick and tock bring ~8% performance improvement, looking at IB and H.

As for mobile, tick (IB) brought lower TDP, tock (H) brought lower power consumption in low workload use cases.

So you get both mobile and desktop improvements with either tick or tock nowadays.

 

[Fjodor2001]

There was an Intel engineer who said around half a year ago or further out now that Broadwell was going to be a BGA part and said nothing of a ZIF socket solution.

I'm sure some company will solder one on an ITX board ...

If some company produces a NUC-like computer using a Broadwell BGA CPU, it's borderline desktop isn't it... :hmm:

 

[ShintaiDK]

There was an Intel engineer who said around half a year ago or further out now that Broadwell was going to be a BGA part and said nothing of a ZIF socket solution.

I'm sure some company will solder one on an ITX board ...

There is still LGA1150 Broadwell Xeons.

 

[zir_blazer]

There is still LGA1150 Broadwell Xeons.

Source?

 

[Techhog]

What bothers me about this is the fact that it means that there will only be one architecture per socket now. It also probably means that we'll likely see desktops completely phased out within the next 15 years...

 

[CakeMonster]

Desktop disappearing in 15 years doesn't matter. As long as there is no step back in performance, and no protracted stagnation, I don't care about the form factor.Right now I can't imagine being without a desktop because there's no way I'd get the clock speeds and especially GPU power that I want in a laptop or tablet. But things will look very different in 15 years. I doubt standalone GPUs will have the same lead over IGPs by then, if they even existl. And if they do they will probably draw so little power that they'll fit in a tablet or laptop anyway.

 

[blackened23]

Desktop disappearing in 15 years doesn't matter. As long as there is no step back in performance, and no protracted stagnation, I don't care about the form factor.Right now I can't imagine being without a desktop because there's no way I'd get the clock speeds and especially GPU power that I want in a laptop or tablet. But things will look very different in 15 years. I doubt standalone GPUs will have the same lead over IGPs by then, if they even existl. And if they do they will probably draw so little power that they'll fit in a tablet or laptop anyway.

Basically. It isn't there yet but the advances in mobile have far outpaced desktop. We'll get to the point where the difference may be indistinguishable eventually - maybe it'll be 3 years, or 5, but it's going to happen.

Meanwhile, desktop won't disappear. Intel, i'm sure, will still create desktop parts even if it's in a 1.5 - 2 year iteration as compared to the previous yearly iterations. Desktop sales have dropped so much that there really isn't much reason to invest heavily into desktop chips - but they will still serve that niche with their enthusiast line of products (I can see that going on for MANY years) and the mainstream line for some time as well. The desktop market is pretty interesting in that basically NOBODY who is a regular user buys a desktop (think of the average joe who goes to Best Buy) but for the enthusiasts and PC gamers who build DIY systems - that part of the market still does well.

 

[Blitzvogel]

Desktop disappearing in 15 years doesn't matter. As long as there is no step back in performance, and no protracted stagnation, I don't care about the form factor.Right now I can't imagine being without a desktop because there's no way I'd get the clock speeds and especially GPU power that I want in a laptop or tablet. But things will look very different in 15 years. I doubt standalone GPUs will have the same lead over IGPs by then, if they even existl. And if they do they will probably draw so little power that they'll fit in a tablet or laptop anyway.

Really depends on consumer expectations 15 years from now. For the die area involved and at similar node processes to CPUs, dedicated GPUs have massive advantages in GFLOPS. CPU cores still have their place, and GPU cores/shaders still have their place so I don't see the two homogenizing anytime soon either. However I do see some kind of possibility of SIMDs arrays on CPUs being supplanted by graphics SIMDs if HSA and hUMA really takes off in the manner AMD and it's allies are hoping for. That means abandoning old ISAs I assume, but in 15 years, x86 might be done for, or not. Just don't know yet.

 

[Fjodor2001]

The desktop market is pretty interesting in that basically NOBODY who is a regular user buys a desktop (think of the average joe who goes to Best Buy) but for the enthusiasts and PC gamers who build DIY systems - that part of the market still does well.

Mentioned previously in the thread:

"2013 forecast, Desktop: 134.4M, Portable: 181.0M"

So 134.4M enthusiasts per year buy a new desktop PC? What counts as an enthusiast then?

 

[Idontcare]

So 134.4M enthusiasts per year buy a new desktop PC? What counts as an enthusiast then?

Nowadays you count as an enthusiast if you buy a desktop form factor for your at-home personal use (not counting what your employer decides you are going to be working with at work).

What percent of that 134.4M desktop units are for personal at-home use?

 

[blackened23]

Mentioned previously in the thread:

"2013 forecast, Desktop: 134.4M, Portable: 181.0M"

So 134.4M enthusiasts per year buy a new desktop PC? What counts as an enthusiast then?

When's the last time you saw a desktop in Best Buy. When's the last time you saw one anywhere in store. Go to Dell's website. How many desktops do you see in comparison to mobile products? Go to lenovo's website. Sony's website. Acer. The point is "average" consumers do NOT buy desktops, ever. 15 years ago? Yes, they had to - they couldn't even use the internet without one. Now? You're dreaming if someone new to computing would buy a desktop instead of a tablet or mobile product. I could go on here. If you can't see the writing on the wall with regard to desktop, you're not paying attention. Most of those desktop sales are corporate. You simply won't find an average joe consumer ever considering a desktop as their first and new computing device on average - Computing tasks that required a desktop 15 years ago do not anymore, so those people buy tablets and macbooks instead. You also conveniently forgot the massive drop quarter per quarter in desktop sales - and most of those are in developing countries and for corporations.

As I said though, the guys that are DIYers - that market hasn't died down much. They're pretty dedicated to the hobby and they (we) spend a lot of money on stupid stuff for their water cooling gizmos. But that market doesn't attract new blood really, either - the "new blood" fresh buyers are all using tablets, macbooks or some other mobile product. The next generation of computing - the students and young guys that are being introduced to computing now? Do you think they want desktops? Nah, not really. A few at best, but on average for new computing users - its a tablet or laptop and nothing else. That's what I meant in my earlier post.

 

[Shivansps]

There is no way to be able to do the same things in a tablet that in a desktop, i tried many times, i just cant, i need mouse/keyboard and Windows/Linux.

People moving away from desktops looks for tinny devices, like all in ones and notebooks, Standart Desktop are just too bulky for most people. And that i can undestand, but a tablet? no way.

Desktop needs to adapt thats all, eventually they will figure out that ATX and its subformats needs to die already(at least as a home mainstream system), ATX power supplys? WAY outdated, ATX backplate i/o? outdated, its too big, and i can go on, but you get the idea, a new format is needed in desktops to adapt it to all in ones.

 

[blackened23]

What i'm essentially saying is that the DIY market is going strong despite desktop sales going to the toilet. There's no way to objectively state otherwise [in regard to NEW COMPLETE desktop system sales] because the quarter to quarter sales of new complete desktops is a disaster and dropping 20% per quarter.

Are there things that you can do on desktop that you can't on a mobile device? Sure. Most people don't care. The young guys, the students, the future of the computing industry do not buy desktops. They do not care. There may be a few outliers but on average they buy mobile products and that is that. People using photoshop or video encoding is far less than 1% of all users. So there is a niche of power users that need desktop power - but for students who need a basic computing device, they will get a mobile product. They can get a macbook/ultrabook for better use or a tablet if they only want media consumption. For someone who wants ONLY media consumption, a tablet such as an ipad will do that just fine.

As I said, though, the DIY industry is still going strong despite desktop sales being terrible. Apparently, the DIY guys (us) are very dedicated to the hobby. So not all is lost and intel WILL find a way to serve our DIY niche - because we're loyal to the hobby. In fact, I can see myself as a DIY system builder for as long as the industry exists - I really enjoy doing it. Even though I have my macbooks, tablets and tons of gizmos, I still like using my desktop when i'm at home - and I enjoy upgrading it every now and then as well.

Does this make more sense? This is what I mean when I say new desktop sales are terrible but the enthusiasts are keeping the DIY industry well and alive.

 

[Shivansps]

There is just no way i will be able to do all my university stuff on a tablet, i cant even write whiout a keyboard, much less program or any rasonable number of multitasking, like reading a documentaion while i do something.

As i said, it can be done, Windows/Linux plus Keyboard+touchpad at least is needed.
I can do it in a notebook with no problem (in fact i do), but when i come in home there is nothing like sitting in my pc with my big screen monitor and big keyboad/mouse, the only way that can be reeplaced is a x86 tablet of more that 10" with a good keyboard dock that i can come home and plug in my monitor/keyboard/mouse...

And BTW, those arent the main sales on the mobile sector. Notebooks taking the place of desktops? yes i can fully undearstand that, but tablets are other thing.

I know that desktop market is still strong, but the fact is, the whole desktop concept is way outdated.

 

[Zodiark1593]

What i'm essentially saying is that the DIY market is going strong despite desktop sales going to the toilet. There's no way to objectively state otherwise [in regard to NEW COMPLETE desktop system sales] because the quarter to quarter sales of new complete desktops is a disaster and dropping 20% per quarter.

Are there things that you can do on desktop that you can't on a mobile device? Sure. Most people don't care. The young guys, the students, the future of the computing industry do not buy desktops. They do not care. There may be a few outliers but on average they buy mobile products and that is that. People using photoshop or video encoding is far less than 1% of all users. So there is a niche of power users that need desktop power - but for students who need a basic computing device, they will get a mobile product. They can get a macbook/ultrabook for better use or a tablet if they only want media consumption. For someone who wants ONLY media consumption, a tablet such as an ipad will do that just fine.

As I said, though, the DIY industry is still going strong despite desktop sales being terrible. Apparently, the DIY guys (us) are very dedicated to the hobby. So not all is lost and intel WILL find a way to serve our DIY niche - because we're loyal to the hobby. In fact, I can see myself as a DIY system builder for as long as the industry exists - I really enjoy doing it. Even though I have my macbooks, tablets and tons of gizmos, I still like using my desktop when i'm at home - and I enjoy upgrading it every now and then as well.

Does this make more sense? This is what I mean when I say new desktop sales are terrible but the enthusiasts are keeping the DIY industry well and alive.

What would be cool also is a DIY or modular laptop. (a larger one, not an Ultrabook). Configure it how you want, when you want, where you want. Want power, the bays can accommodate multiple video cards, fast cpu, Blu Ray drive, and plenty of extra drive bays (apart from the obligatory SSD). Want multiple days of battery life, stuff battery mods into those empty bays, and (automatically) undervolt the cpu. Want the latest and greatest CPU, system uses a standard of mobos making swaps easy. ^_^

Kinda like that one Lenovo laptop that has the SLI 750s (one of the GPUs takes the dvd drive bay), but taken to an extreme. Obviously I'm not saying desktops should die in favor of this idea, but a full-on DIY option in the mobile space would be awesome too.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Source?

Not to mention specific LGA1150 support in the refresh (9 series) platform for Broadwell LGA.

 

[SlickR12345]

Even more concerning is what will happen when it becomes impractical to continue die shrinks. Not sure when this will happen, but it could be in another cycle or two.

Maybe Intel will finally be forced to add more cores to the mainstream desktop. Or unfortunately, they just might say desktop is good enough and not bother.

Not going to happen. There are billions desktops, 85% of the world have desktops, thing is when are they going to upgrade?

Right now I feel like with windows 8 sucking, no games that push the limit and basically slow gains in performance by upgrading 2 generations, people are just not willing to upgrade.

I think 2014 is going to be a resurgence year with desktops with games from PS4 and Xbone being ported to the PC, with DDR4 becoming more affordable, with SSD's becoming very affordable at great storage space, with AMD obviously launching its new GPU's in few months.

So I think from March of next year we are going to see people upgrading and of course new markets emerging as well, with teens buying desktops for the first time.

I think mobile is going to slow down from next year as well, like what real changes are there going to be? There is only so much difference going from 8 megapixels camera to 9 megapixels or whatever, going from 20 centimeters screen to 22 or whatever.

Like what new features are there? So I think the market for new mobile phones is going to reduce, right now its huge because mobile phones are generally cheap and there has been enough advancement and new features to drive sales, but in the past year we've seen that development of new stuff has been rare.

I also think tablets are going to die off as well, we already are seeing major markets rejecting them like Europe, Latin America and central Asia, so the big market for tables is in USA, Canada, Britain, Japan, South Korea, New Zeland and pockets in Western europe. I don't think its going to continue.

The big movers are going to be PS4 and Xbone though, I do believe this generation is going to sell the best and fastest, especially since the systems are not more expensive than the last generation, in fact the PS4 is $200 cheaper at start, while Microsoft is more expensive, but not by too much.

So we are going to see at least 20 million units sold combined within few months.

 

[bgt]

Most(95%) of my clients have iPads, iPhones or Androids but................they all have desktops too. So no way the desktop is going to die real soon. PC renewal cyclus is only slower but still there. And don't forget how awful(slow) laptops become after a year or 2. A big nuisance for most users. iPads are better in that regard.

 

[zir_blazer]

Not to mention specific LGA1150 support in the refresh (9 series) platform for Broadwell LGA.

If Broadwell requieres the new Chipset to work, it pretty much kills the point of it using LGA 1150. If I need to buy a new Motherboard alongside the Processor, I wouldn't care the less if it was LGA 1150, BGA, or whatever else.

So the actual plans seems to be that Desktop users will get a "Haswell refresh" under the Core i brand while Xeons E3 will receive Broadwell sometime later I suppose. I don't find the logic behind having to develop two dies that seems to be too close from a time perspective and sharing the same infrastructure for two different markets, when all Intel did during the last 3 generations was consolidate it.
Something doesn't fits...

 

[ShintaiDK]

If Broadwell requieres the new Chipset to work, it pretty much kills the point of it using LGA 1150. If I need to buy a new Motherboard alongside the Processor, I wouldn't care the less if it was LGA 1150, BGA, or whatever else.

So the actual plans seems to be that Desktop users will get a "Haswell refresh" under the Core i brand while Xeons E3 will receive Broadwell sometime later I suppose. I don't find the logic behind having to develop two dies that seems to be too close from a time perspective and sharing the same infrastructure for two different markets, when all Intel did during the last 3 generations was consolidate it.
Something doesn't fits...

The situation have been explained multiple times before. Due to the new focus on tablets and smartphones, desktop users are simply not first in line to get 14nm as long as Intel is capacity limited on the node. Servers, smartphones, tablets and laptop users comes first. Hence Skylake will be the first 14nm desktop product. Desktops is slowly dying and have been for quite a while. It was an unavoidable situation sooner or later.

Also Haswell Refresh might be a platform update only. And perhaps a speedbin or 2. Broadwell is not supposed to be sold to desktop users. Just as current E3 Xeons.

 

[Atreidin]

Desktops will exist pretty much as long as processors are made, simply because they have the thermal headroom for more performance, and there will always be applications that need as much performance as possible. However I would expect it to get more and more expensive to stay on the bleeding edge because of the loss of economy of scale.

 

[24601]

Desktops will exist pretty much as long as processors are made, simply because they have the thermal headroom for more performance, and there will always be applications that need as much performance as possible. However I would expect it to get more and more expensive to stay on the bleeding edge because of the loss of economy of scale.

As long as the desktop skus use the same masks as the laptop/server skus then there is no loss of economy of scale, as shintaiDK mentioned earlier.

Desktops are also a convenient place to dump chips that don't meet their requirements for performance per watt in laptop and server applications (higher leakage chips on the wafer).