[FUDZILLA] No Broadwell for Desktop

[seitur]

What i'm essentially saying is that the DIY market is going strong despite desktop sales going to the toilet. There's no way to objectively state otherwise [in regard to NEW COMPLETE desktop system sales] because the quarter to quarter sales of new complete desktops is a disaster and dropping 20% per quarter.

Are there things that you can do on desktop that you can't on a mobile device? Sure. Most people don't care. The young guys, the students, the future of the computing industry do not buy desktops. They do not care. There may be a few outliers but on average they buy mobile products and that is that. People using photoshop or video encoding is far less than 1% of all users. So there is a niche of power users that need desktop power - but for students who need a basic computing device, they will get a mobile product. They can get a macbook/ultrabook for better use or a tablet if they only want media consumption. For someone who wants ONLY media consumption, a tablet such as an ipad will do that just fine.

As I said, though, the DIY industry is still going strong despite desktop sales being terrible. Apparently, the DIY guys (us) are very dedicated to the hobby. So not all is lost and intel WILL find a way to serve our DIY niche - because we're loyal to the hobby. In fact, I can see myself as a DIY system builder for as long as the industry exists - I really enjoy doing it. Even though I have my macbooks, tablets and tons of gizmos, I still like using my desktop when i'm at home - and I enjoy upgrading it every now and then as well.

Does this make more sense? This is what I mean when I say new desktop sales are terrible but the enthusiasts are keeping the DIY industry well and alive.

Of course it does make sense.

Besides DYI market is not only based on old enthusiasts. There are actually at least two other groups:
1. Small stream of new enthusiasts that go into DYI
2. More semi-casual users that DYI themself - that is due to an simple fact that both availability of DYI parts and easiness of assembling your own PC is much easier now. Compare how annoying and long was assembly process in 486 times or Duron / Athlon times and how is it now.

Not to mention DYI being very price competetive vs. ready branded desktop systems from DELL, HP, etc which also play role in current economy.
DYI is caniballizing traditional branded Desktop sales.

 

[frozentundra123456]

When's the last time you saw a desktop in Best Buy. When's the last time you saw one anywhere in store. Go to Dell's website. How many desktops do you see in comparison to mobile products? Go to lenovo's website. Sony's website. Acer. The point is "average" consumers do NOT buy desktops, ever. 15 years ago? Yes, they had to - they couldn't even use the internet without one. Now? You're dreaming if someone new to computing would buy a desktop instead of a tablet or mobile product. I could go on here. If you can't see the writing on the wall with regard to desktop, you're not paying attention. Most of those desktop sales are corporate. You simply won't find an average joe consumer ever considering a desktop as their first and new computing device on average - Computing tasks that required a desktop 15 years ago do not anymore, so those people buy tablets and macbooks instead. You also conveniently forgot the massive drop quarter per quarter in desktop sales - and most of those are in developing countries and for corporations.

As I said though, the guys that are DIYers - that market hasn't died down much. They're pretty dedicated to the hobby and they (we) spend a lot of money on stupid stuff for their water cooling gizmos. But that market doesn't attract new blood really, either - the "new blood" fresh buyers are all using tablets, macbooks or some other mobile product. The next generation of computing - the students and young guys that are being introduced to computing now? Do you think they want desktops? Nah, not really. A few at best, but on average for new computing users - its a tablet or laptop and nothing else. That's what I meant in my earlier post.

Every best buy in my area still has a desktop section. Granted it is small relative the laptop, ultra books, and tablet areas, but it is still there. Even if I did not game, I still would prefer a desktop for normal home use because a large monitor and separate full size keyboard is much more pleasant to use than a laptop, even more so than touch on tablet or phone.

 

[Idontcare]

I've often wondered "who" actually walks into a Best Buy and walks out with a desktop computer. I don't know single person, in real life or on the internet, who has done that. But surely those individuals exist, otherwise Best Buy would not dedicate the floorspace to desktop SKUs.

 

[blackened23]

Every best buy in my area still has a desktop section. Granted it is small relative the laptop, ultra books, and tablet areas, but it is still there. Even if I did not game, I still would prefer a desktop for normal home use because a large monitor and separate full size keyboard is much more pleasant to use than a laptop, even more so than touch on tablet or phone.

If anyone think tons of new computing buyers are buying desktops in droves, that truly isn't the case. Existing DIYers? Sure. The hobbyists spend tons of money and they're on average older people, who understandably are still using desktops because *that* is how they were introduced to computing. Old habits die hard.. They buy stuff because it's their hobby - but the problem is, that hobby doesn't attract new, young blood. New computing buyers - the young folks - do not buy desktops on average. On average, new computing users want media consumption and occasional use of Office. Their introduction to computing generally is a macbook or small laptop. Or if media consumption only is sufficient, a tablet is their introductory computing device. 15 years ago? people were introduced to computing by desktops because that was the only way.

One poster stated "everyone has desktops at home". That really isn't true. All the new, younger guys do not have desktops, on average. There's the occasional outlier, sure, but the preference of the market has shifted far in favor of mobility. But the older guys won't acknowledge the reality, they're stuck in their old school dinosaur ways of thinking, I guess. The same guys, who probably said that cell phones were pointless 15 years ago. Walking around a university makes this painfully obvious - if any of these 18 year olds have desktops in their dorms or homes, they sure do hide them awfully well. They all have laptops, macbooks, and tablets. The younger buyeres represent the future buyers of the industry and on average, they laugh at the notion of "desktop" computers outside of work environments.

How does this affect us? Not much. Intel is changing focus from the desktop because desktop sales suck. However, as I said, as DIYers are older people with more disposable income - that keeps the DIY industry going strong. New desktop sales are going to the toilet however DIY sales aren't really contracting because these are hobbyists - we are hobbyists, me included - that have disposable income who genuinely enjoy messing with this stuff. The real question is, how long will the hobbyists and old dudes keep the DIY industry sustainable? Who knows. 5 years? 6 years? 10? Shrug.

 

[ShintaiDK]

My better half got both a desktop and a laptop. The desktop is purely used for gaming, nothing else. The laptop handles everything else, including some gaming.

 

[blackened23]

Yeah, almost the same here - gaming and productivity stuff. And I genuinely enjoy using and upgrading my desktop - i'm a hobbyist like most of us here. But, again, the writing is on the wall regarding desktops, I can't deny that. But it doesn't matter because the hobby industry for DIY folks is going very strong and isn't contracting - so it should last for many years in that respect.

I think some people that shrug laptops off don't understand the convenience factor. I love being able to take all of my work on the go. There are specific usages for my desktop when i'm relaxing at home - but i'm sold on mobility.

 

[NTMBK]

Both me and my girlfriend have desktops (well, hers is a ZBox so I'm not sure if that technically counts). But I can't think of any of my friends my age who have one.

(Probably university is a big part of that, though. Laptops are so much easier when you're moving around a lot.)

 

[Fjodor2001]

Even for basic tasks like emailing, surfing the web, and some word processing I could not imagine being without a desktop PC. A large monitor together with proper keyboard and mouse provides a completely superior user experience and makes most tasks much more efficient.

Laptops, tablets and smart phones can be good complements though.

I know I'm certainly not alone in that opinion. A lot of people think like that, and it's not just enthusiasts. The thing though is that a lot of users already have a desktop that they feel is "good enough", if it's bought within the last 4 years or so. Therefore desktops may not sell as much as when there was a clear benefit for most users in upgrading every 2-3 years.

 

[VirtualLarry]

I've often wondered "who" actually walks into a Best Buy and walks out with a desktop computer. I don't know single person, in real life or on the internet, who has done that. But surely those individuals exist, otherwise Best Buy would not dedicate the floorspace to desktop SKUs.

I know someone that bought one for their elderly mom. Didn't turn out so bad, it was a G630-ish machine, not an E-350 thank goodness.

I've personally, in the last two years or so, purchased two pre-builts from Staples. Mostly because they were $200 off, and I couldn't have built them for that price.

What I wonder, though, too, is what the target market is for the average BestBuy desktop computer? I don't think I've ever seen any of them "Geek Squad Gaming Optimized", with an aftermarket graphics card added to a decent desktop non-SFF PC. (Feel free to use my idea, though, BestBuy, if you're reading this.)

I have seen the DIY section at Microcenter growing by leaps and bounds though, they are carrying easily twice or more as many different case selections at the Cambridge store.

 

[frozentundra123456]

I've often wondered "who" actually walks into a Best Buy and walks out with a desktop computer. I don't know single person, in real life or on the internet, who has done that. But surely those individuals exist, otherwise Best Buy would not dedicate the floorspace to desktop SKUs.

I have, but it was about 7 years ago. That Core 2 duo Acer lasted me 6 years for general use and modest gaming with several gpu upgrades.

I have to admit now however, that I would not purchase a pre-built desktop from Best Buy. Fortunately, I live close to a microcenter, and they have a much better selection. Sounds like heresy on these forums, but I did purchase a close out XPS from Microcenter, added a HD7770, and am very happy with it so far.

 

[frozentundra123456]

I know someone that bought one for their elderly mom. Didn't turn out so bad, it was a G630-ish machine, not an E-350 thank goodness.

I've personally, in the last two years or so, purchased two pre-builts from Staples. Mostly because they were $200 off, and I couldn't have built them for that price.

What I wonder, though, too, is what the target market is for the average BestBuy desktop computer? I don't think I've ever seen any of them "Geek Squad Gaming Optimized", with an aftermarket graphics card added to a decent desktop non-SFF PC. (Feel free to use my idea, though, BestBuy, if you're reading this.)

I have seen the DIY section at Microcenter growing by leaps and bounds though, they are carrying easily twice or more as many different case selections at the Cambridge store.

Actually, Best buy is featuring more and more low end desktops. Mostly pentiums and i3 machines from intel, and occasionally an AMD machine with an APU, not an FX with a discrete card. About the closest thing they feature to a gaming machine is a Dell XPS with a discrete card barely more powerful than the HD4600, but of course you could add a better card, as the XPS has a decent power supply.

The microcenter where I live, OTOH has several relatively powerful gaming desktops for sale, both from OEMs and their in house brand.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Actually, Best buy is featuring more and more low end desktops. Mostly pentiums and i3 machines from intel, and occasionally an AMD machine with an APU, not an FX with a discrete card. About the closest thing they feature to a gaming machine is a Dell XPS with a discrete card barely more powerful than the HD4600, but of course you could add a better card, as the XPS has a decent power supply.

"Race to the bottom" for retail desktops, I guess. Kind of sad, but if no-one's buying, I guess that they have to attract customers based on price. See my sig for why.

 

[Vesku]

I've often wondered "who" actually walks into a Best Buy and walks out with a desktop computer. I don't know single person, in real life or on the internet, who has done that. But surely those individuals exist, otherwise Best Buy would not dedicate the floorspace to desktop SKUs.

Older people often buy desktops, I've seen a few shoppers in my limited time inside the various computer stores. They just want something cheap with a big screen, they aren't very concerned about portability. That market is slowly dieing off though (harsh but true).

 

[fleshconsumed]

Even for basic tasks like emailing, surfing the web, and some word processing I could not imagine being without a desktop PC. A large monitor together with proper keyboard and mouse provides a completely superior user experience and makes most tasks much more efficient.

Laptops, tablets and smart phones can be good complements though.

I know I'm certainly not alone in that opinion. A lot of people think like that, and it's not just enthusiasts. The thing though is that a lot of users already have a desktop that they feel is "good enough", if it's bought within the last 4 years or so. Therefore desktops may not sell as much as when there was a clear benefit for most users in upgrading every 2-3 years.

The thing that I'm afraid is going to happen is that once their desktops die people simply won't buy another one and will just use their laptop. You and me and everybody else on this forum are power users and enthusiasts. Most people are not like us. Most people do not need more than a laptop.

My girlfriend has macbook air (yes, I know, she's a hard core apple user and nothing I do will ever change it, so I've given up that battle). Initially she thought about getting desktop mac as well but thankfully I talked her out of it because it would cost a ton and she does not actually need it. So she just uses her macbook air on the go and when she needs desktop she just plugs in external monitor via displayport cable and a USB hub that has keyboard, mouse, and fitbit dongles attached to it and voila - she's got a desktop in less than 20 seconds.

I feel that once their desktops die a lot of people will go the same route. It's what makes most sense for them.

The reason I'm really afraid of this trend is because once there is no demand for desktops anymore it will be harder and harder and more and more expensive to get a desktop. I do not want a laptop with its whiny little fan for my primary machine, I don't want that noise, I want peace and quiet. I also like having a file server with terabytes of space and RAID5/RAID6 redundancy accessible to any device in the whole house. I do not want to store things in the cloud, I like my privacy thank you very much, and I trust myself and my skills more than any cloud. I like having full desktop in a nice good looking case for my HTPC, it gives me tons more flexibility than any google or apple TV ever would. A laptop can never replace those things. That's why I'm afraid of the current laptop/tablet/phone/minification trend. Personally I wouldn't even mind two year upgrade cycle, I don't really need that much CPU power, a 3570/4670 has plenty enough power for me. What I really need is the incredible flexibility that only desktop can provide, and if those are gone... woe is me I guess...

 

[blackened23]

Even for basic tasks like emailing, surfing the web, and some word processing I could not imagine being without a desktop PC. A large monitor together with proper keyboard and mouse provides a completely superior user experience and makes most tasks much more efficient.

Laptops, tablets and smart phones can be good complements though.

I know I'm certainly not alone in that opinion. A lot of people think like that, and it's not just enthusiasts. The thing though is that a lot of users already have a desktop that they feel is "good enough", if it's bought within the last 4 years or so. Therefore desktops may not sell as much as when there was a clear benefit for most users in upgrading every 2-3 years.

You need a desktop for web surfing and word processing. Anyway, it's a good thing you can't hook up an external monitor and keyboard/mouse to an ultrabook eh? Oh wait. You can. If you're at home you can easily do this on a laptop and it does not require a desktop.

The bottom line is the writing is on the wall with desktop sales plunging into the toilet by double digit percentages every quarter. People who aren't old and antiquated do not consider a desktop for a new purchase, older people being set in their ways tend to have a different mindset (ie, they hate change.). Like I said it was the same thing 15 years ago when the old guys said cell phones would never matter. Pointless. Who needs a cell phone with a land line? Etc. The change has already happened, but the good news is the DIY upgrade market is still going strong. But you won't see new desktop sales improving anytime soon - the younger guys and people new to computing want mobility.

Basically the net effect is that DIY is now hobbyist status and that segment is still going relatively strong - so there is nothing to worry about even if desktop sales are terrible. For DIY builders, they are older dudes with more disposable income - thus the DIY market hasn't really contracted as I mentioned earlier. In fact, DIY sales are relatively strong because this segment of users has disposable income (on average). New desktop sales HAVE definitely contracted by an absolutely absurd amount, however - like I said the younger guys who are new to computing generally will not and do not consider a desktop. This is aside from the fact that rarely if ever will you see a desktop on the shelf at a Best Buy or Apple store. The concept of "desktop" to the new generation of buyers is just something that they on average will just laugh at and never consider outside of a work environment.

 

[cytg111]

Well - everyone knew this more or less.

(Even if it's fudzilla reporting).



What i hope is - they'll start shifting more server tech to enthusiast levels
Perhaps move i7 brand to E only - and make a cheaper lines and scale more cores.


Look at the top DIE SKU's scaling of Ivy E5-EP lines.
We need that our in enthusiast segment - so the software ECO will be interested in catching up.

8 cores coming with haswell-e should keep any enthusiast happy #core-wise for the next decade. - Unless the software revolution is around the corner (I peeked, it is not..)

 

[Insert_Nickname]

What I really need is the incredible flexibility that only desktop can provide, and if those are gone... woe is me I guess...

Same here I guess. Desktop is about flexibility for me at least. The one thing a laptop can't provide is the expandability of a desktop.

What some here apparently fails to see are the DIY crowd has ALWAYS been a minority. That hasn't changed in the last 10-20 years. It doesn't matter if mainstream users go laptop/tablet. The DIY/gaming market may be small but its also profitable enough to make at least a desktop/consumer version of server hardware, that has already been developed and paid for. Will the desktop die eventually? Yes it properly will in its current form, but I do believe desktops will be here in some form or other for the foreseeable future.

There is also the small matter of the EU screen directive, that essentially forbids anyone from using a laptop at work for more then two hours at a time. (no, dockable laptops with separate keyboard/monitor do not count in this regard)

BTW, does HTPC's count as fully fledged desktop?

 

[Fjodor2001]

You need a desktop for web surfing and word processing. Anyway, it's a good thing you can't hook up an external monitor and keyboard/mouse to an ultrabook eh? Oh wait. You can. If you're at home you can easily do this on a laptop and it does not require a desktop.

The bottom line is the writing is on the wall with desktop sales plunging into the toilet by double digit percentages every quarter. People who aren't old and antiquated do not consider a desktop for a new purchase, older people being set in their ways tend to have a different mindset (ie, they hate change.). Like I said it was the same thing 15 years ago when the old guys said cell phones would never matter. Pointless. Who needs a cell phone with a land line? Etc. The change has already happened, but the good news is the DIY upgrade market is still going strong. But you won't see new desktop sales improving anytime soon - the younger guys and people new to computing want mobility.

Basically the net effect is that DIY is now hobbyist status and that segment is still going relatively strong - so there is nothing to worry about even if desktop sales are terrible. For DIY builders, they are older dudes with more disposable income - thus the DIY market hasn't really contracted as I mentioned earlier. In fact, DIY sales are relatively strong because this segment of users has disposable income (on average). New desktop sales HAVE definitely contracted by an absolutely absurd amount, however - like I said the younger guys who are new to computing generally will not and do not consider a desktop. This is aside from the fact that rarely if ever will you see a desktop on the shelf at a Best Buy or Apple store. The concept of "desktop" to the new generation of buyers is just something that they on average will just laugh at and never consider outside of a work environment.

I think you're being overly pessimistic in some aspects.

After all, the forecast for 2013 is 134.4M Desktop PCs and 181.0M Portable PCs sold. So the difference is not that big.

The trend may look a bit gloomy for desktops though at the moment. But what about the future for laptops sales? When people already have laptops with "fast enough" CPUs, 1080p+ displays, all day battery life and low weight. We're close to reaching that already. So then you get the same dilemma as for desktops - what would make the consumer want to buy a new laptop when they already have one that is good enough in all those aspects?

 

[fleshconsumed]

BTW, does HTPC's count as fully fledged desktop?

My HTPC is a full "desktop" PC in a Silverstone GD07 case. It houses full ATX motherboard with E8400 and has windows 7 installed on it. It works really great for parties and gatherings because we can show photos, watch movies or play music from my file server, or stream from pandora, watch youtube, netflix if someone has a subscription, you name it. I also have an app installed on my android phone/tablet so I can control most basic computer functions. Yes, google/smart TVs are slowly catching up to the functionality that I have right now, but one, they're still behind and will always be a step behind compared to proper HTPC, and two, they're a proprietary technologies that are hard to interface with the rest of the tech devices. So IMO my HTPC is a desktop in a different (HTPC) form factor.

The trend may look a bit gloomy for desktops though at the moment. But what about the future for laptops sales? When people already have laptops with "fast enough" CPUs, 1080p+ displays, all day battery life and low weight. We're close to reaching that already. So then you get the same dilemma as for desktops - what would make the consumer want to buy a new laptop when they already have one that is good enough in all those aspects?

You have to remember, that desktops are much more flexible than laptops. I still have a couple of Core2Quad 9450 desktops, but the only reason I've been able to keep using them is because desktops are so expandable. I've upgraded those machines with 8GB of RAM and SSDs and they practically fly now. You can't easily do the same with laptops. Almost every single ultrabook now has RAM soldered to the motherboard, and most of the ultrabooks only come with 4GB which is a "planned obsolesce" feature in my opinion. For now you can still upgrade these ultrabooks with aftermarket harddrives, either 7mm of msata ones, but it's a lot more difficult than it used to be because now you practically have to gut your entire laptop to replace a part, and with SSDs becoming more and more common, I can see in the future SSDs being integrated into motherboard as well. What would you do then when you run out of hard drive space or RAM? The only choice is to buy a new laptop...

 

[Fjodor2001]

You have to remember, that desktops are much more flexible than laptops. I still have a couple of Core2Quad 9450 desktops, but the only reason I've been able to keep using them is because desktops are so expandable. I've upgraded those machines with 8GB of RAM and SSDs and they practically fly now. You can't easily do the same with laptops. Almost every single ultrabook now has RAM soldered to the motherboard, and most of the ultrabooks only come with 4GB which is a "planned obsolesce" feature in my opinion. For now you can still upgrade these ultrabooks with aftermarket harddrives, either 7mm of msata ones, but it's a lot more difficult than it used to be because now you practically have to gut your entire laptop to replace a part, and with SSDs becoming more and more common, I can see in the future SSDs being integrated into motherboard as well. What would you do then when you run out of hard drive space or RAM? The only choice is to buy a new laptop...

Actually I think very few desktop owners use the flexibility and upgrade their computer like that. When it's time to upgrade RAM or storage they usually buy a completely new computer and get the rest (motherboard, CPU, etc) upgraded at the same time. The average Joe/grandpa often does not even know or care about simple stuff like how to replace a HDD and reinstall the OS & Apps on it, or even insert new RAM. So the behavior compared to for laptops is not that different in reality.

 

[Phynaz]

8 cores coming with haswell-e should keep any enthusiast happy #core-wise for the next decade. - Unless the software revolution is around the corner (I peeked, it is not..)

Somehow other people always seem to know what I need or want without asking me.

 

[frozentundra123456]

You need a desktop for web surfing and word processing. Anyway, it's a good thing you can't hook up an external monitor and keyboard/mouse to an ultrabook eh? Oh wait. You can. If you're at home you can easily do this on a laptop and it does not require a desktop.

The bottom line is the writing is on the wall with desktop sales plunging into the toilet by double digit percentages every quarter. People who aren't old and antiquated do not consider a desktop for a new purchase, older people being set in their ways tend to have a different mindset (ie, they hate change.). Like I said it was the same thing 15 years ago when the old guys said cell phones would never matter. Pointless. Who needs a cell phone with a land line? Etc. The change has already happened, but the good news is the DIY upgrade market is still going strong. But you won't see new desktop sales improving anytime soon - the younger guys and people new to computing want mobility.

Basically the net effect is that DIY is now hobbyist status and that segment is still going relatively strong - so there is nothing to worry about even if desktop sales are terrible. For DIY builders, they are older dudes with more disposable income - thus the DIY market hasn't really contracted as I mentioned earlier. In fact, DIY sales are relatively strong because this segment of users has disposable income (on average). New desktop sales HAVE definitely contracted by an absolutely absurd amount, however - like I said the younger guys who are new to computing generally will not and do not consider a desktop. This is aside from the fact that rarely if ever will you see a desktop on the shelf at a Best Buy or Apple store. The concept of "desktop" to the new generation of buyers is just something that they on average will just laugh at and never consider outside of a work environment.

Well you *can* hook up and unhook an external monitor, mouse and keyboard every time you want the desktop experience, but I really have no need for a mobile platform, so why should I bother. Not to mention that a desktop is cooler running, upgradable, more easily repairable (and probably longer lasting in the first place do to better cooling), and faster for less money.

 

[BSim500]

Well you *can* hook up and unhook an external monitor, mouse and keyboard every time you want the desktop experience, but I really have no need for a mobile platform, so why should I bother. Not to mention that a desktop is cooler running, upgradable, more easily repairable (and probably longer lasting in the first place do to better cooling), and faster for less money.

Not to mention a case on the floor takes up less valuable desk space than a full sized notebook with half a dozen cables streaming out of it in different directions...

 

[Insert_Nickname]

My HTPC is a full "desktop" PC in a Silverstone GD07 case. It houses full ATX motherboard with E8400 and has windows 7 installed on it. It works really great for parties and gatherings because we can show photos, watch movies or play music from my file server, or stream from pandora, watch youtube, netflix if someone has a subscription, you name it. I also have an app installed on my android phone/tablet so I can control most basic computer functions. Yes, google/smart TVs are slowly catching up to the functionality that I have right now, but one, they're still behind and will always be a step behind compared to proper HTPC, and two, they're a proprietary technologies that are hard to interface with the rest of the tech devices. So IMO my HTPC is a desktop in a different (HTPC) form factor.

I think you hit the nail on the head there. That's pretty much how I use my own HTPC. Its just far more flexible then any smart TV/google/appletv.

 

[bgt]

I think you hit the nail on the head there. Its just far more flexible then any smart TV/google/appletv.

True. My SilverstoneSG05 does not have a remote control unit but using a mouse and keyb. makes it easy to use. And the A4-5300 is fast and economic to use in a HTPC.