Future of CPU prices: AMD and Intel?

[VirtualLarry]

Where do you see prices going?

kwalkingcraze mentioned that he believes that CPU prices are going up.

I felt, prior to now, that prices were on a downward trend still, at least, in terms of price/performance.

But thinking about Intel's declining market share in desktop CPUs, thanks to Ryzen, compounded by the overall decline in terms of PC unit sales numbers, something that both the HDD as well as the GPU industry players have had to contend with, and in the case of GPU makers, rising prices - where does that leave Intel?

We've already started to see their strategy around the G4560 and its reduced supply, due to that chip being such a good value, relative to all of their other dual-cores in their current CPU lineup.

Will we see absolute prices on Intel CPUs actually rise? Is Intel's declining volume, due to declining PC unit sales, an even bigger economic "lever", than the competition from AMD right now?

IOW, is this the end of under-$100 CPUs and APUs? And how much of this trend is due to lower unit volumes, versus how much of this is due to lesser-cored CPUs (dual-cores, mostly) no longer being capable of giving reasonable performance in today's desktop software, and internet content browsing (both advanced video codecs, and script-heavy pages, or even both at the same time).

I think that the rumors that Intel's upcoming CFL-S CPU lineup contains i3 SKUs that are 4C/4T, (or possibly even 4C/8T, depending on which rumors you believe), indicate to me that at least this "minimum CPU core count software effect" is largely true.

(This is why I recommend a Ryzen 5 1600 CPU as an entry-level desktop CPU, paired with at minimum a GT1030 for modern internet content-consumption. Yes, the Zen/Vega-based APUs can't come soon enough, IMHO.)

 

[whm1974]

There is a market for both cheap and expensive computers, so the under $100 CPUs will still be around for awhile yet. Perhaps will we start seeing cheap 4C/4T CPUs replacing the lower cost dual cores sometime soon.

 

[moonbogg]

AMD came in with shocking value because they had no choice. If they regain their reputation by competing solidly for another generation or two, their prices will go up. If Zen 2 comes in at 4.5ghz with 10% IPC increase on top of it, what are the chances they'd be selling another 8 core for $300? Precisely ZERO chance!

 

[JimmiG]

AMD came in with shocking value because they had no choice. If they regain their reputation by competing solidly for another generation or two, their prices will go up. If Zen 2 comes in at 4.5ghz with 10% IPC increase on top of it, what are the chances they'd be selling another 8 core for $300? Precisely ZERO chance!

CPUs were still cheap back when Intel and AMD were in fierce competition (Netburst vs K8). Competition leads to lower prices, not higher. Intel already have a 4.5 GHz (Turbo), 8-core CPU with 10% higher IPC, at $599, so that's the absolute highest price AMD can go with for the next 8-core CPU. The 1800X launched at $499, so that's a reasonable price to expect for the highest mainstream Zen 2. Then they will obviously have lower clocked versions and versions with disabled cores below that, and MCM's above that.

There is a market for both cheap and expensive computers, so the under $100 CPUs will still be around for awhile yet. Perhaps will we start seeing cheap 4C/4T CPUs replacing the lower cost dual cores sometime soon.

About $100 seems to be the lowest price that still allows a CPU company to make a profit, so when prices drop too far below that, the product no longer makes economic sense. It's kind of like SSD's - instead of 120 GB SSD's just getting cheaper and cheaper, they were eventually more or less replaced by 240 GB SSD's. You can use TLC, take out the DRAM etc. but selling an SSD below $45 ($55 now due to the NAND shortage) just isn't viable. Same with CPUs - eventually quad-cores will be $100, but dual-cores won't be $50, they'll simply vanish (or cost more or less the same as quad cores).

 

[AtenRa]

AMD came in with shocking value because they had no choice. If they regain their reputation by competing solidly for another generation or two, their prices will go up. If Zen 2 comes in at 4.5ghz with 10% IPC increase on top of it, what are the chances they'd be selling another 8 core for $300? Precisely ZERO chance!

ZEN 2 will be produced at 7nm, that means an 8core die will be almost half of what current 8Core Zen is. So 8 Core Zen2 could easily be at $300 and even lower.

 

[ao_ika_red]

Industry competition should give advantages to customers, which are higher performance in lower cost and also faster technological advancement. That means, as long as AMD and Intel compete fairly, we'll witness downward trend of CPU price. The only reason why Intel could offer higher price on G4560 is purely because Intel saw demand shift from i3 to Pentium product. Once things stabilized, G4560 price will be stagnated and will be down again once AMD has similar perf/price SKU to offer.

 

[moinmoin]

Intel's up to now ridiculous margin dictates that they need to continue the "added value" market segmentation at all cost which could indeed lead to scarcity of lower priced but lower margin Intel chips. AMD on the other hand has no margin to defend, on the contrary for now they have the most profit to gain from pure economy of scale so they'll continue building on as few dies as manageable and sell those in as many markets as possible. Only once demand outstrips supply (meaning GloFo and TSMC can't produce more, not going to happen anytime soon) AMD will start focusing more on higher margin segments.

 

[mohit9206]

AMD has already stated they don't want to be seen as the "cheaper option" but a "better option".
AMD ironically doesn't have any options in the sub $100 market while Intel is King there so there's no competition there.
Between $100-200 there's either the locked i5s or underwhelming 1400/1500x. Both are overpriced and should be cheaper.
Between $200-300 is where the prices have dropped and great value is there.Too bad sub $200 is still bad.

 

[whm1974]

AMD has already stated they don't want to be seen as the "cheaper option" but a "better option".
AMD ironically doesn't have any options in the sub $100 market while Intel is King there so there's no competition there.
Between $100-200 there's either the locked i5s or underwhelming 1400/1500x. Both are overpriced and should be cheaper.
Between $200-300 is where the prices have dropped and great value is there.Too bad sub $200 is still bad.

Hopefully things will improve soon.

 

[Mopetar]

Prices will fall. Intel is going to be pressured by AMD, but even if they decide to increase prices in the future, both will have to content with ARM SoCs that are reaching new performance levels and will soon be able to move beyond the mobile space.

 

[formulav8]

Definitely see cheaper future options, especially from Intel's overcharging like they loved to do. They showed some of that with SL-X. AMD with their very shrewed CCX design makes it easier for them to have good consumer prices with still good margins. Intel IIRC will be using an AMD type approach for their 2020+ cpu's.

 

[VirtualLarry]

I really wouldn't mind if Intel released a true 4C/4T CPU for around $100 or so, based on Core architecture, in the CFL-S generation. (Rumor has it that there will be 4C/4T i3 CPUs.)

 

[formulav8]

Rumor has it that there will be 4C/4T i3 CPUs

For $100 though? Don't see that personally.

 

[Mopetar]

We'll likely see a 4C/4T Ryzen CPU at close to $100 by the end of the year. It might launch at a higher price, but I expect some deals to bring it down for Black Friday.

Might not clock as high as an i3, but should perform well enough and you can manually overclock it to whatever it is capable of hitting.

I'm still curious to see where their
APUs slot in price-wise as they have a good shot at providing some absurd value for the entry-level desktop market as well as mobile even if Vega isn't the monster many wished it were.

 

[whm1974]

We'll likely see a 4C/4T Ryzen CPU at close to $100 by the end of the year. It might launch at a higher price, but I expect some deals to bring it down for Black Friday.

Might not clock as high as an i3, but should perform well enough and you can manually overclock it to whatever it is capable of hitting.

I'm still curious to see where their
APUs slot in price-wise as they have a good shot at providing some absurd value for the entry-level desktop market as well as mobile even if Vega isn't the monster many wished it were.

Are the APUs supposed to be released late this year or early next year?

 

[moinmoin]

Are the APUs supposed to be released late this year or early next year?

Mobile APUs later this year, desktop APUs next year.

 

[VirtualLarry]

We'll likely see a 4C/4T Ryzen CPU at close to $100 by the end of the year.

I don't know if we'll see much 4C/4T action below $100, but I'm fairly confident that we'll see them from both Intel (CFL-S i3) and AMD (Ryzen 3) soon, at around or just above that price.

However, AMD's AM1 platform, did offer 4C/4T CPUs, at low, low prices. (My Sempron 3850 quad-core 1.30Ghz AMD AM1 APU was $20 on sale.)

Granted, performance of the AM1 APUs was low(er), especially in ST, compared to Intel and AMD big-core offerings.

I'm curious where Ravens Ridge will fall on the pricing spectrum, in comparison with Ryzen 3.

 

[Malogeek]

ZEN 2 will be produced at 7nm, that means an 8core die will be almost half of what current 8Core Zen is. So 8 Core Zen2 could easily be at $300 and even lower.

Half the size of the process doesn't mean it's half the price. It doesn't work like that, it never has. Mature processes are often much cheaper than newer processes.

 

[mohit9206]

For $100 though? Don't see that personally.

i3 always start at the same price of $120 so a true quad core i3 would be great.

 

[Malogeek]

i3 always start at the same price of $120 so a true quad core i3 would be great.

Wouldn't that create even more of an identity crisis Intel are having with their lineup? I'm sure they could find something to disable on a 4c4t i3 to "differentiate" it from an i5.

 

[whm1974]

Wouldn't that create even more of an identity crisis Intel are having with their lineup? I'm sure they could find something to disable on a 4c4t i3 to "differentiate" it from an i5.

They should really release a mainstream 6-core CPU for the Socket 1151 platform and make that the i7.

 

[ao_ika_red]

I don't know if we'll see much 4C/4T action below $100, but I'm fairly confident that we'll see them from both Intel (CFL-S i3) and AMD (Ryzen 3) soon, at around or just above that price.

Ryzen 3 (realistically) will hit market next week. Its initial price will be about US$120. I imagine it will hit around or below 100 mark when Black Friday sales begin. I wish Christmas come early.

However, AMD's AM1 platform, did offer 4C/4T CPUs, at low, low prices. (My Sempron 3850 quad-core 1.30Ghz AMD AM1 APU was $20 on sale.)

Granted, performance of the AM1 APUs was low(er), especially in ST, compared to Intel and AMD big-core offerings.

Wow, is your Jaguar still running? How's its performance if used as shop (cashier and inventory) PC? I'm planning to get one.

I'm curious where Ravens Ridge will fall on the pricing spectrum, in comparison with Ryzen 3.

This is a well-discussed topic in this thread.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Wow, is your Jaguar still running? How's its performance if used as shop (cashier and inventory) PC? I'm planning to get one.

I'm guessing that "shop"-type software is probably not heavily multi-threaded, so it probably will run poorly on the Jaguar quad-cores, as their single-threaded speeds are fairly poor. At least, on my 1.30Ghz Sempron 3850 APU.

 

[whm1974]

I'm guessing that "shop"-type software is probably not heavily multi-threaded, so it probably will run poorly on the Jaguar quad-cores, as their single-threaded speeds are fairly poor. At least, on my 1.30Ghz Sempron 3850 APU.

Need to replace badly.

 

[ao_ika_red]

I'm guessing that "shop"-type software is probably not heavily multi-threaded, so it probably will run poorly on the Jaguar quad-cores, as their single-threaded speeds are fairly poor. At least, on my 1.30Ghz Sempron 3850 APU.

Thanks, it's not sophisticated software, VB-based software made by my friends. I guess I'll wait until the cheapest Ryzen APU is released. Really wish it will hit under US$100 mark.