Future of used car market?

[Mermaidman]

Current cars are generally of good design and reliability--Even cars perceived as low quality are much better than their counterparts of the previous decades. So what do you think will happen to the used car market?
-Will people buy new cars less frequently?
-Will used cars become cheaper, even desirable brands like Honda and Lexus?
-Will used car buyers move up-market?
-Perhaps the cheaper used cars will be shipped overseas for emerging markets? In that case, it's unlikely that there will be a glut in the USA.
-Will car makers ensure planned obsolescence?
-Those of you who have just bought a new 'awesome' car, how long will you keep it?

It's late Friday afternoon--sorry for the rambling post.

 

[chuckywang]

Depends if people buy new cars cause they are of better quality or because they just show it off.

 

[GasX]

If today's cars are so much better than yesterday's cars then everyone will buy a new car and the bottom will drop out of the market. Then everyone will say to hell with it and buy a used car because they are so cheap. Eventually an equilibrium will be found.

kind of like we already have...

 

[Ika]

You bring up an interesting point...

I don't believe there's any way car manufacturers will allow the used car market to drop off the face of the planet, though. They'll probably find a way to implement planned obsolescence if it's necessary to save the used car market.

But honestly, I think some people buy used cars just because it's cheaper than buying a new car. I'm not so sure they take into account the longevity of a new car.

 

[cubby1223]

Both markets will suffer if people are driving cars longer than in years past. But there will *always* be a good balance between new & used car sales - the used cars have to come from somewhere.

 

[KrillBee]

unfortuntaly it probably means people will just find dumber reasons to junk their used cars.

for example: oh, the radiator fan stopped working, take it to the junkyard!

and then the junkyard smashes it.

 

[PAB]

Originally posted by: Mermaidman
Current cars are generally of good design and reliability--Even cars perceived as low quality are much better than their counterparts of the previous decades. So what do you think will happen to the used car market?
-Will people buy new cars less frequently?
-Will used cars become cheaper, even desirable brands like Honda and Lexus?
-Will used car buyers move up-market?
-Perhaps the cheaper used cars will be shipped overseas for emerging markets? In that case, it's unlikely that there will be a glut in the USA.
-Will car makers ensure planned obsolescence?
-Those of you who have just bought a new 'awesome' car, how long will you keep it?

It's late Friday afternoon--sorry for the rambling post.

People will continue to buy used for two reasons

1. It's cheaper
2. They don't qualify for conventional financing.

Theres currently PLENTY of exporting going on.

And if you want to follow valuations, google the Manhiem Used Car Value Index

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: Aflac
But honestly, I think some people buy used cars just because it's cheaper than buying a new car. I'm not so sure they take into account the longevity of a new car.

This makes no sense.

How long does the average last? 8 years?

If you buy a used car after two - you will pay much less than 75% of its original value (or you should) and then you can keep it 6 more years. You end up way ahead.

 

[preslove]

I was talking to a former dealership owner who was buying me an auction car. He said that the used car market was much bigger now than it was back in the day. Better constructed cars will mean they will keep their value longer and better.

 

[Thorny]

I was told once there was a cycle that the industry went through, with the peaks being about 1.5 years apart. I forget the reasons, but it sounded solid at the time.

 

[marulee]

Good question..
I also thought about how will be, then now the question is what will be, and what we will be expecting..
Simply it narrows down to what consumer wants... their trend...
Guess... in general, quantity versus quality.. like Marriage!

 

[Parasitic]

Used car prices will have to go down pretty soon, especially with the introduction of cheap $3000 Chinese vehicles coming into the States next year.

 

[Mrvile]

I think it's looking good since more people are buying more japanese cars

 

[KrillBee]

Originally posted by: Parasitic
Used car prices will have to go down pretty soon, especially with the introduction of cheap $3000 Chinese vehicles coming into the States next year.

whoah, i didnt know about this

 

[Zenmervolt]

The death of the used car market will actually come from the electronics in newer cars. I predict that in the future there will be very, very few cars that are 1) built after 1990 and 2) more than 15 years old.

Cars built before 1990 are usually decently fix-able by home mechanics and don't have as many electronic do-dads controlling them, this means that failures are cheaper to correct. As the more modern cars age, their expensive electronics will fail and the people who buy used cars will not want to spend the money to fix those electronics. For example, I can imagine restoring a Fox body Mustang or any earlier Mustang, but I wouldn't even THINK about restoring my '06 when it eventually wears out. I don't want to have to deal with all the computer controlled crap.

ZV

 

[radioouman]

Car manufacturers already have planned obsolescence. Parts that last significantly longer than they are supposed to are cheapened down. Just barely achieving the target is the goal of the car makers.

 

[vi edit]

I think all consumer goods in general have converted from a "repair/restore" to a replace mentality.

Very few products any more are designed with owner repairs/maintenance in mind.

Everything any more is disposable, cars included.

 

[funboy6942]

Originally posted by: Zenmervolt
The death of the used car market will actually come from the electronics in newer cars. I predict that in the future there will be very, very few cars that are 1) built after 1990 and 2) more than 15 years old.

Cars built before 1990 are usually decently fix-able by home mechanics and don't have as many electronic do-dads controlling them, this means that failures are cheaper to correct. As the more modern cars age, their expensive electronics will fail and the people who buy used cars will not want to spend the money to fix those electronics. For example, I can imagine restoring a Fox body Mustang or any earlier Mustang, but I wouldn't even THINK about restoring my '06 when it eventually wears out. I don't want to have to deal with all the computer controlled crap.

ZV

I was just about to write something up about this as well because I dont see the used car market becoming better but worse. Most people who buy a used car are the not so well off. With more crap in them to break and computer controlled that will cost a butt load just for the part itself, the really older cars, like pre 1990, are going to be in high demand.

I think people will start to pay a premium for the really older cars with no computer controlled anything on them at all and will continue to repair them till the frames rust off and may find a way around that too. When you think about it, you can buy a engine for around $500 and a tranny for $300, can be replaced with someone with half a brain, that cost is rather minimal when thoes are really the only two things on a older car to keep it on the road thats going to go out.

Cars of today and 10 years ago your talking $2400 for a trans and $1200-$1500and up for a engine for some autos, and thats not including all the other sensor/computer bs all over the car.

I sold my Firebird, Im picking up a 83 carb'd full size blazed. Aint a damn thing on it computerized, rust free to boot. I will just continue to pop in a V8 350 into it and a TH700R4 trans and keep it for ever.

 

[KrillBee]

Originally posted by: funboy42

I was just about to write something up about this as well because I dont see the used car market becoming better but worse. Most people who buy a used car are the not so well off. With more crap in them to break and computer controlled that will cost a butt load just for the part itself, the really older cars, like pre 1990, are going to be in high demand.

I think people will start to pay a premium for the really older cars with no computer controlled anything on them at all and will continue to repair them till the frames rust off and may find a way around that too. When you think about it, you can buy a engine for around $500 and a tranny for $300, can be replaced with someone with half a brain, that cost is rather minimal when thoes are really the only two things on a older car to keep it on the road thats going to go out.

Cars of today and 10 years ago your talking $2400 for a trans and $1200-$1500and up for a engine for some autos, and thats not including all the other sensor/computer bs all over the car.

I sold my Firebird, Im picking up a 83 carb'd full size blazed. Aint a damn thing on it computerized, rust free to boot. I will just continue to pop in a V8 350 into it and a TH700R4 trans and keep it for ever.

i wonder if some car maker will eventually become smart and produce vehicles once again that are fixable by the home mechanic. They could just produce a few models like that while keeping their other ones all complex.

It appears the auto industry wants us to buy new cars even more now than ever before.
I dont think we as a country can keep on affording this lavish "its broke so lets replace it" lifestyle forever though.

plus its not very fair to people in the rest of the world who dont have cars.

 

[redgtxdi]

Thought about this much myself!

There are some arguments that the latest models in big brand names are skimping and shortcutting in critical places. (Toyota, Honda, etc.) I don't know if that's true or not, but I do know that the mid 90's produced some great cars that are still all over the road today.

Another thing to consider is that the late 80's produced some of the WORST cars ever. Problem w/ a lot of those was that a lot of them were computer controlled BUT w/ carburetors instead of injection. Injection was pretty much full circla by '90 so if I were to buy a used car it'd either have to be post-'90 or pre-'80!! (Actually, might even go pre-'75 just to be safe!!!)


Now.............just to throw a wrench in all of this, you have to also consider how the technological advances can be looked at as "better" despite the fact that the cars may be made w/ a shorter-term life. (7 airbags, traction control, etc.)

Does that make newer better?? How to judge?? Safety vs. long-term value??

 

[sindows]

There will always be starving college students and as a result, there will always be a market for used cars.

 

[fitzov]

What makes you think the used car market has changed?