Dont don’t count your 2022 chickens before they hatch. Dems are likely to net 2 Senate seats in 2022(PA and Wisconsin). Plus you are going to have a GOP intraparty civil war. The Trumpers have already threatened to primary everyone that doesn’t support their coup. If moderate gop members get primaried and they lose to a radical Trumper those seats will likely flip Dem.
The GOP is going to be feasting on and attacking itself for the next two years. I expect to see some vicious GOP on GOP fighting today on the House and Senate floors during debate over objections to EC votes..
Generally speaking the party out of power wins seats in the midterms but to me the biggest wild cards are:
1) economic growth in 2021 and 2022 is likely to be very strong - a lot of savings have been accumulated during COVID and people are going to spend them.
2) possible Trumpist/GOP civil war. People really, really hate Trump but Republicans (at least for the moment) are being forced by their base to continue his legacy. If they have to keep running on a return to Trumpism that could be a big problem.
The main issue for the Democrats is that to keep the house they will once again have to secure a blowout win. If they only win the popular vote by say, 3-4 points they probably lose the house and then of course you have dumb people saying 'america repudiated Biden' even though Biden's side got the most votes.