I fail to see why people care whether or not a system or not is "on top". The super nintendo sold way more systems and games than the sega genesis, but if you liked sports games, the genesis was the way to go regardless. If you liked RPGs, get a SNES.
And nothing has changed. This isnt going to signal the end of the PC gaming world. Another year PCs will be on top again. And probably only two systems will survive. And history has shown us, the the first to come out, are the first to die.
Case in point: Turbografx 16. Came out a slight bit before the rest, and had the most games for a while, but just didnt cut it, mostly for technolgical reasons. Its library of games couldnt help it.
Same with Saturn, and with dreamcast. When looking at the PS2 anyone who uses the argument, "It will have more and better games when the others are released.", should think twice. The dreamcast has plenty more, and still does have plenty more games than the PS2. I'd even venture to say that when october comes around, the DC will still have more games combined than all 3 of its competitors. But its dead in the water, and isnt even considered an official competitor. Its been thrown with the likes of 3D0, Jaguar and the TG16. The PS2's library of games isnt going to save it, nor will name recognition, nor will backwards compatibility. It'll have some great games, but in another year, it wont be able to compete, no matter what anyone says. XBOX and GC are heads and shoulders above PS2 as far as technology goes. GC and XBOX arent debuting anywhere until october, and the PS2 was out in japan for a short while before coming here. Show me a year and a half old console that has come out on top of the one released afterwards.
I'd like to think people would learn things from history, as the same things happen over and over, and I believe we can draw a few parallels here. Dreamcast is dead, and not even considered. PS2=Saturn. It'll have its great games, but the thing about the PS2 is that theres no first party games. Sony doesnt make any games. The developers can just move onto newer systems, and likely will. Not even the DC's first party support could save it, and the PS2 doesnt even have that going for it.
Now while I'm fairly confident the PS2 will go the way of the Dreamcast, and be dead in a year, I'm not all too sure about the XBOX and GC. I would tend to think the GC would end up being the kiddie system, as the N64 was. You didnt have 30 year old men buying N64s, they bought Playstations. It was more adult oriented. Not that I'm saying the N64 was totally kiddie, but there was obviously a tendency more towards the young. Then again, that who play most console games.
But the xbox seems to be appealing more to the older crowd. The 20 and 30 somethings. Games with more depth in them. I dont expect to see many kiddie games for the xbox. With PC developer support, PC gamers are likely to buy it. PC gamers are much much older than console kiddies.
The way I see it, kiddies will love the GC, and the adults will love the XBOX, just as the n64 and ps before it. I think the PS2 will put up more of a fight than the TG16, but if name recognition was such a big deal, sony wouldnt exist. If sony can come out of nowhere with a console, so can MS. MS has had far more game experience than sony did at its launch, so give them a chance.
And lets not forget who has more money, kids or adults. Probably the single deciding factor in the PS's success.
It has nothing to do with technology, as the SNES and PS have shown. People wont buy the PS2 anymore because its not the new thing. I'm seeing more and more people selling them.
Lets not forget at heart, these are toys. They play games. Noone wants to have last years toy.
The market simply cannot support 3 consoles for a long time. One has to die, and the PS2 has been alive the longest, and is most likely the one to go. It'll still probably be a profitable venture for sony, but doubtfully to the extent of the PS.
And the golden rule of consoles (and the gameboy does not count), which has ALWAYS held true: First in, First out.
Personally, I'll go for the system with easier to pirate games. Another HUGE factor in the PS's success. Everyone I know with a PS has a mod chip in it. Dont flame me for Rsaying whats on half of everyones mind. DVD-R will become commonplace soon enough, and many xbox owners will have PCs...well, take from it what you will. I just want UC.