Companies can still operate even after filing for bankruptcy, FYI. BTW, those people who have been calling for AMD's demise over the last 10 years haven't actually been wrong that the business would continue to deteriorate significantly, so maybe give those "doom and gloom haters" a little more credit for getting the basic trend right.
That's not what they have been saying. They claimed AMD will not improve their dGPU market share above 20% (we've heard those claims for > 12 months now) as well as AMD declaring bankruptcy, not that its business would decline. Before that, they claimed next gen PS4/XB1 consoles (next gen at that time) won't even get AMD design wins, nor will they be based on APUs. The same posters also claimed AMD won't improve perf/watt with Fiji.
There is strong potential for AMD to improve its positioning with NX, 1440p and above gaming, and VR. That's not even accounting for PS5/XB2 launching in 2019-2020 with a huge probability of having next gen GCN and Zen APUs in them.
TIBURON, CA-March 14th , 2016 - Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, will be presenting new research during this week's Game Developer's Conference (GDC) that forecasts the
global game hardware market to pass $140 billion in 2019.
https://jonpeddie.com/press-release...arket-forecasted-to-reach-140-billion-by-2019
^ Who do you think is going to be benefiting from this growth? Intel integrated graphics?
"Gaming Notebook sales take breather as Desktop trend for 4K/UHD builds Momentum
The global PC gaming hardware market is forecast to slightly recede in 2015 but, but less than the overall PC market, and
then resume growth in 2016. However, all recession and growth within the market is not equal. Jon Peddie Research (JPR) believes that notebooks bought for gaming have entered a challenging sales environment
as PC gamers gear up for the forthcoming mass market 4K/UHD development."
http://jonpeddie.com/publications/pc_gaming_hardware_market_report/
The performance and enthusiast dGPU segments now outnumber mainstream by
3:1.
The proof is everywhere.
"
High-end add-in boards shipments increased in 2015, while all else declined"
http://www.computerbase.de/2016-03/...rafikkarten-fuer-spieler-hat-sich-verdoppelt/
https://jonpeddie.com/press-release...nts-increased-in-2015-while-all-else-declined
This forum continues to be behind reality of PC gaming hardware still clinging to ideologies that people are buying $100-200 GPUs and i3s/dual cores.
To support their claims they use data from PC OEMs, while completely ignoring the DIY market, as well as the growth in the performance and enthusiast segments (like i7 breaking all-time quarterly records for Intel). The biggest growth is happening in the $300+ dGPU and i7 market segments. Many PC gamers entering PC gaming or building/upgrading their rigs no longer want weak sauce $50-130 CPUs and $100-150 underpowered desktop GPUs.
It's akin to claiming that luxury car sales are declining by looking at the overall sales of the entire automotive industry and not even accounting for major declines in emerging markets like Russia, Brazil, etc. where incomes are low and people are less likely to purchase $300+ GPUs and i7s.
"All major regions showed year-over-year shipment declines, with Latin America showing the steepest drop, where PC shipments declined 32.4 percent. The Latin American PC market was intensely impacted by Brazil, where the problematic economy and political instability adversely affected the market, Ms. Kitagawa said. "The ongoing decline in U.S. PC shipments showed that the installed base is still shrinking, a factor that played across developed economies. Low oil prices drove economic contraction in Latin America and Russia, changing them from drivers of growth to market laggards."
http://www.techpowerup.com/221673/w...in-first-quarter-of-2016-according-to-gartner
PCs are not being adopted in new households as they were in the past, especially in emerging markets. In these markets, smartphones are the priority."
http://www.techpowerup.com/221673/w...in-first-quarter-of-2016-according-to-gartner
Do you think AMD will not regain any market share in the next 5 years?
Do you think AMD will sell less Zen CPUs/APUs than existing architecture over the next 5 years?
Do you think AMD will not gain any server market share from Intel in the next 5 years?
Do you think AMD will not get any new laptop design wins with Polaris in 2016 and with Zen in 2017?
AMD survived over the last 3-4 years having inferior perf/watt GPUs, almost non-existent product line in mobile dGPU space, completely noncompetitive FX4000-9000 lines. With NX revenue stream, 14nm GPUs and Zen CPUs, their current market share and market positioning in 2016 will probably be their bottom in the foreseeable future. 2017 and beyond should be a turnaround year for them in GPUs/CPUs, etc. They don't necessarily need to outright beat NV/Intel to gain market share either because in many CPU/GPU segments there weren't even a consideration. For example, NV won sub-75W and sub-150W dGPU markets by default. When NV launched 750/750Ti/950/960 for OEMs, AMD really had nothing for those markets where $20-40 350-400W POS PSU is the norm. It's not going to go down that way once Polaris launches. NV won't just get the same design wins by default anymore.
All in all, I see NVIDIA shrinking, AMD growing and Intel shrinking in one market but growing in another because Zen won't be a flop.
Exciting times.
I don't see NV shrinking at all. They are going to grow their revenue and gross margins by raising prices on GPUs again. You will see. They'll do it by pricing mid-range cards at flagship prices and playing with 1060Ti/1070/1080 names. For instance, 1060Ti could easily match a 980 and be priced at $299 (almost the same price where 970 used to be). Similarly, 1070 could beat 980Ti and still be an amazing value at $399-449. That would allow NV to easily position 1080 at the same $550 or even $600 price levels since it'll offer superior price/perf to 980Ti.
You aren't accounting for huge growth in deep learning, AI, neural networks, autonomous driving, etc. Those markets have incredible potential, far exceeding graphics growth.
Look at where the automotive industry is going --- cameras everywhere, safety systems, computers guiding the vehicle, virtual cockpits. NV hits all of these markets out of the park.
NV is
already onboard with Audi (VW Group), which means as prices drop and tech evolves, NV could capture the entire VW Group offerings, from Skoda, VW, Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, Porsche -- all with virtual cockpits, autonomous driving capabilities, etc.
Virtual cockpit and autonomous driving are dropping to more affordable levels than ever with the all-new A4. NV and Tesla also have huge growth potential. In these markets, Intel and AMD aren't even on the map.