German IT Distributor Publishes AMD+Intel Roadmaps: Z490, Z390, 8-Core CFL in Q4

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Aug 11, 2008
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I think you misread the situation. The problem is that the current meager level of AMD success doesn't nearly ensure that healthy competition at all, not to mention ensuring it stays here in long term, with all those desirable effects that brings.

Look at the market: after year of riding Ryzen's improved competitiveness and mindshare, AMD has hardly any OEM sales, and their overall *DESKTOP* share (not to mention mobile/servers) has moved from 10 to paltry 12 %. And they had to cut prices on all the CPUs by 20-33% to achieve that. They are still just barely profitable (and that profit is tiny, not nearly enough to make any significant investments or debt reductions). And that is also thanks to the otherwise terrible crypto bubble (that better died swiftly...). Intel still eats all the profits and has 10x the revenue and what, 50x the profits? You only need to look at Intel being able to merrily sell its HEDT CPU for $2000 (2x more than two generations prior) even though there's Threadripper, which needs to be discounted heavily to keep selling, to see that the starting positions in the fight are still way too far from being equal.

As one of the other poster wrote above, AMD needs to get much stronger if the competition in the CPU market is to be ensured long-term. Guessing wildly, I'd say it needs at least double the revenue it will have in 2018 (6.5-7.0 billion), at least double the RD budget (800 millions/quarter, while it was ~400 in 2017), and then it needs to be bringing in about 1.5+ billions of yearly net profit and keep improving there, to keep the investors happy and the management from having to cut RD. They need to pay their debt on top of that. And they need to be able to field a new chip design every year instead of bi-annually (pinnacle ridge is the same design as summit ridge), if they are to be able to compete with Intel once it fixes its 10nm manufacturing. They also need to be able to design and pay mask costs for more chip variants, so that they can cover lowend/budget market under $100 - they are unable to do that now, you can clearly see how they are so cash strapped that they just can't afford to design chips for essential market segment. If not for anything else, this on its own tells you they are not in competitive enough position, because their size just doesn't allow them to field all the chip categories that the market needs. Result: some segments see no competition and the overall ability to keep Intel in check suffers.

So I am afraid that we really need Intel do tank for 2-3 more years so that AMD's position and healthy improves enough to make it really dangerous. Because now, it is not, it is still highly endangered instead. And that is without mentioning that it needs money and ability to press/market itself into big OEM and retail sales in the GPU segment too.

Even if Intel struggled for idunno, 5 years?, its position would hardly be endangered, you have to realize that. They wouldn't even lose that much of marketshare thanks to all those OEM deals and sheer economic strength. I'm not even convinces those 5 years of AMD lead would ensure the "long-term sustained competition" goal.
No, I just disagree with you. Basically what you are saying is you want progress to halt in cpus and dgpus until AMD catches up, or really until they come out with such a superior product that not even their knee jerk reaction to underprice the competition can prevent them from turning a profit. Seems like you just proved my point.
 

Jan Olšan

Senior member
Jan 12, 2017
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No, I just disagree with you. Basically what you are saying is you want progress to halt in cpus and dgpus until AMD catches up, or really until they come out with such a superior product that not even their knee jerk reaction to underprice the competition can prevent them from turning a profit.

Thanks, but I'm fairly sure my stance is quite correct. I was talking about what is needed for the competition to be sustainable in long term. And I mean, really long term. We want this world to have the PC platform for decades more instead of it being eaten by disposable toys that have terrible compatibility and thus short life and are useless in a few years (see ARM, mobile hardware). For that we need good competition in x86 CPU space that would drive PC platform ahead. Ideally stronger VIA/Zhaoxin would be good too, even if I didn't like it much that it got into PRC's hands.
You are talking just about short term matters, but those really are not that important in the grand scheme.

Importantly, progress won't halt when Intel gets to face problems. After all, adversity actually forces you to try harder! Just look at what happened between 2011-2017. AMD was forced to develop a very advanced power managament that bears fruit in Zen now (being able to clock cores up to the frequency ceiling reliably for example...), all because they were stuck with bad core architecture and bad process tech at the same time. And what was the effect Intel's dominance in architecture and process had on its products? They adopted a policy of holding back on core counts (a.k.a. value), playing it safe, perhaps even slow development. They got sidetracked from their core product, trying to chase markets like mcaffee, drones, and such stuff. And worse, they were half-assed there, so all those attempts were often just quickly abandoned, wasting the efforts. Some strong pressure might actually help Intel in the future, to get a better grasp.

Seems like you just proved my point.
Are you sure that this is not actually a case of you only wanting competition as long as your team stays in the lead and the "competitive push providing player B" never manages to really catch up and get dangerous?
 
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