I've been reading a lot of mixed feedback regarding the 9500 non-pro and it's rate of success with the soft mod. Personally, I wouldn't rely on it. If I was going to get a 9500, I'd spend a little more and just the Pro version which is a much better card than either of the choices you've mentioned.
By the way, I was in the same position as you. I was looking for a powerful, but cheap upgrade for one of my backup boxes to replace my aging GF3. I went a head and got the PNY special (64mb ti4200 8x AGP) over at BestBuy this week. For $90, you cannot beat this card as far as bang for the buck is concerned. It's an excellent value and the quality is very high as far as I can tell. I was able to push it to near ti4600 speeds in my testing last night. Image quality with the ATI is better, but really not by that much. My 21" Dell p1130 has dual VGA inputs and I toggle back and forth between the ti4200 and my 9700 Pro. Without seeing it in a side by side comparison, the difference in image quality is not noticable at all.