GM going all electric by 2035

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Eventually, at least one or 2 of your parking light lenses are cracked, sometimes by your own doing. That's why the garage deal was the only way to go.

oh well with city living and parking, I live by the "bumpers are there for a reason" rule. You better not be parking your Maserati on the street, as I will have no fucking sympathy if there's an ~inch give where I can still fit my car.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,403
8,199
126
At this point I don't even know what driving is. I drive like 2x a month to the grocery and liquor stores. And that's like a 3 mile round trip. Everything else is on my bike.
 
Dec 10, 2005
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call car. car arrives, takes you to gig, drives itself to hub for charge, picks up next owner, repeat. You actually need less charging infrastructure and far, far far less parking infrastructure. This is a really huge deal. ....obviously that's two big, relatively independent paradigm shifts (electric and automation), but they are now irrevocably tied together, anyway.
In an urban setting, the idea of single occupancy vehicles taking people all over should go the way of the dinosaur. Reclaim the street space for people and mass transit, with some ancillary space for cabs for those that need/want to pay for a personalized ride.
 
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Steltek

Diamond Member
Mar 29, 2001
3,053
759
136
It won't matter, because at the rate GM is going it won't exist by 2035. Customer satisfaction ratings are in the toilet, and the products they design and sell are absolute junk.

And then, there is their recent legal moves to limit their liability under warranty for the junk they sell.

Just recently, they argued in court (with a straight face) that Corvette tires that stay aired up when parked but that go flat when driving are a result of a flawed factory rim design. Because it is a design flaw and not the result of a material or workmanship failure, GM shouldn't have to pay to fix them. I kid you not.

Similarly, they also argued (and partially succeeded) not two weeks ago to dismiss several class action lawsuits over their defective 8-speed transmissions in 2017-2019 model vehicles. Their argument was that EVERY SINGLE ONE of them was defective from the day it was built due to bad design and -- wait for it -- as such, wasn't a material or workmanship failure. Thus, they aren't covered under warranty and GM shouldn't have to pay to repair them. Again, I kid you not.

So, they basically can sell you shit vehicles and it isn't their fault when the shit stops working because the engineers they hired and paid to design their vehicles are idiots.

Technically, it is a brilliant move because they are right. The warranty is completely silent on "defective design". It is only concerned with workmanship failures or material failures. This is going to save them billions when they pull it off. It will also cost them future legacy sales left and right.

I've decided I'll simply never buy a US-made automobile again. My next one will probably be a Toyota.

So, goodbye GM. I won't miss you when it happens.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
In an urban setting, the idea of single occupancy vehicles taking people all over should go the way of the dinosaur. Reclaim the street space for people and mass transit, with some ancillary space for cabs for those that need/want to pay for a personalized ride.

I agree. so now the car subscription service is a shared vehicle subscription service! Would definitely help to cut down on all the ...activities...that would invariably occur in such automated vehicles.

Still, virtual elimination of street parking, and of course automated cars that can drive 100% better than any human, would on their own eliminate that thing called traffic.

traffic isn't caused by "number of cars on road." It's only ever caused by stupid humans that are put in control of those cars.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,432
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Still, virtual elimination of street parking, and of course automated cars that can drive 100% better than any human, would on their own eliminate that thing called traffic.

traffic isn't caused by "number of cars on road." It's only ever caused by stupid humans that are put in control of those cars.
On street parking can be eliminated now - cities can stop giving away valuable land for free/cheap car storage. If you want to store your personal property, pay for the storage.

And it won't fix traffic, because that is completely governed by vehicles and the space they occupy. There will always be a maximum throughout based completely on max occupancy and vehicle size. You can't just keep cramming more vehicles into a fixed amount of space.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,947
20,216
136
I agree. so now the car subscription service is a shared vehicle subscription service! Would definitely help to cut down on all the ...activities...that would invariably occur in such automated vehicles.

Still, virtual elimination of street parking, and of course automated cars that can drive 100% better than any human, would on their own eliminate that thing called traffic.

traffic isn't caused by "number of cars on road." It's only ever caused by stupid humans that are put in control of those cars.

Some street parking in some areas should be reclaimed by cities to make available for parks, bicycles, pedestrians and plazas, but that is certainly not viable everywhere. Where is everyone going to park? There is simply not enough off street parking, even if everyone paid, to get even close.

Traffic is certainly caused by volume of cars on limited sized roads, along with humans. Automated cars are not going to solve a lot of our traffic problems in a lot of areas. There are just congestion points that exist in densely populated areas. You'd be better off really investing in mass transit in a lot of these areas. Give people a better reason to not get in any car, automated or not.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
On street parking can be eliminated now - cities can stop giving away valuable land for free/cheap car storage. If you want to store your personal property, pay for the storage.

And it won't fix traffic, because that is completely governed by vehicles and the space they occupy. There will always be a maximum throughout based completely on max occupancy and vehicle size. You can't just keep cramming more vehicles into a fixed amount of space.

no, not really.

Obviously, there is a simple physical limit to things that need to occupy a limited space--but traffic is actually governed by the efficiency of moving that stuff through that space; not by it being in that space.


Think about ants. Think about how they chemically communicate among the entire moving colony, and all the ants know all the information from all the other ants about what is going on several meters ahead of them. Complete communication across an entirely automated system would have this network of vehicles adjusting and responding on the fly, to compensate for slow downs before it ever becomes an issue. no cutting off. no random stopping in the middle of the street for no reason. no asshat deciding they need to make a u-turn RIGHT NOW and fuck everyone else. THAT is what causes actual traffic.

Humans are the actual problem. We are stupid and can't really think outside of our own specific needs, in the moment. a system where the cars never essentially stop, merge exquisitely into all lanes, with the minimum of space, would eliminate traffic--even at current levels of existing vehicles, and you could even remove current lanes from expressways...with the same vehicle load.

we actually haven't even reached the maximum throughput of our current infrastructure, because we will never know what that is in a system governed by inefficient, stupid humans. I know it's hard to imagine this because we really only have one experience right now, but a properly-designed and run system--like an ant colony and yes, entirely possible--would virtually eliminate it. Perfect zipper merges all the time, merging well ahead of time and using all available lanes as necessary up until the proper time is needed to merge. It is humans and it has only ever been the humans. Not the cars.

You can also imagine that things like stop lights and stop signs would necessarily be obsolete, at least not functioning the way they do now. The primary issue, in cities, would be dealing with pedestrians. lights at certain intersections would primarily exist only to allow timed pedestrian crossings. ....I'd say that you might have to gate certain sidewalks to keep idiots from jaywalking...or at least in the early years of such a system "let the herd thin itself" as morons decide to risk fate. Eventually, humanity will learn for real that only death awaits them in this new world order if they choose to challenge the uninterrupted automated network of cars--moving thorough the city like your own circulatory system.
 
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the DRIZZLE

Platinum Member
Sep 6, 2007
2,956
1
81
US consumes ~14 quadrillion BTU of electricity currently, (generated from total of ~39 quadrillion BTU of primary energy before losses)

US Transportation, in all forms, consumes ~28 quadrillion BTU of energy. With only about 0.2% of this currently from electricity ~ basically none.

So to replace all US forms of transportation (28 quadrillion BTU worth) with electric vehicles would require tripling the amount of power generation in the US - and also tripling transmission capabilities unless the new power was generated locally. Note this is far more than just electric cars, but assuming electrifying the entire US transportation sector.

Back of the envelope, about a $9 trillion investment (which obviously would have to be phased in over many years), note this is in addition to the normal business-as-usual investments to meet power demand growth and replacement of retiring assets - of about $130+ billion/year or so. So would need to increase investment in the power sector by a factor of 5x, over period of 15 years, to reach this target as a simplified example estimate.

Basis: current US investor-owned electric utilities hold more than $1.6 trillion in depreciated assets on their books, which makes up about 70% of US generation, so call it $2.3 trillion total current assets for the power market as a whole. With quick assumption that on average these are about half depreciated = $4.6 trillion of assets at replacement cost, or to triple the market, need to add $9.2 trillion of new investment as a very simple rough approximation.
.

You have a couple of big errors here. First, you are comparing electricity consumption to transportation primary fuel consumption. But vehicles have limited thermodynamic efficiency just like power plants. So you need to compare the electricity consumption of EVs to currently electricity consumption.

Second, transportation includes heavy trucks, rail, aircraft, ships, etc. Some of which will never be electrified. A better back of the envelope is taking the 3.3 trillion miles of pre-corona VMT and multiplying by 300 W / mile resulting in 1 trillion kWh. Current US electricity consumption is around 4 trillion kWh so it's about a 25% increase, not a tripling.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Some street parking in some areas should be reclaimed by cities to make available for parks, bicycles, pedestrians and plazas, but that is certainly not viable everywhere. Where is everyone going to park? There is simply not enough off street parking, even if everyone paid, to get even close.

Traffic is certainly caused by volume of cars on limited sized roads, along with humans. Automated cars are not going to solve a lot of our traffic problems in a lot of areas. There are just congestion points that exist in densely populated areas. You'd be better off really investing in mass transit in a lot of these areas. Give people a better reason to not get in any car, automated or not.

You guys should read up on the traffic people and city planners about what causes traffic. It really isn't "volume of cars."

Hell, just think about your daily commute, if you have one, and the rage that fills you every time some jackass causes a hiccup for no reason. ...fucking rubberneckers. RUBBERNECKERS! literally half the expressway problems are due to asshats slowing down to look at crap that isn't even in their way. automated cars of no interest in this nonsense. Hell, here in DC on 495, there's a particular section that has an S turn...very light, very easy turns, but everyone loses their collective shit over this idea that they will have to turn their steering wheels for a second, and slow to a crawl. Every time. There is literally no reason for it.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
You do realize there is going to be an infrastructure issue if they were to do that. The fact is that majority of apartment buildings in the US were built before the shift to electric vehicles started, and thus they do not have outlets at their parking. I can see this as a start to disenfranchising people who live in apartment buildings.
Apartments don't have gas pump either. This is also 14 years out, there will be improvements in infrastructure as the market demands it.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,947
20,216
136
If automatic cars can eliminate the traffic caused by multiple fast moving major highways culminating into much smaller infrastructure like the Lincoln Tunnel and spitting them out a mile later into much much slower streets I'm all ears. It will help but it's certainly not the solution. Getting individuals out of cars that take up all that space to carry one person, and into mass transit, will probably be a bigger solution.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
I dunno. I very much don't trust the people who make decisions that actually implement change listen to the people who know what actually needs to be done.

In short politicians think in the short term.
Luckily in America utilities aren't ran by politicians. We can build gas turbine plants in a couple years time, and they take up very little footprint.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
We already have to curtail wind and solar when there is to much versus demand. An issue that will continue to grow as deployment of those resources does. If you've got millions and millions of plugged in cars on intelligent EVSEs you can tell them to soak up the excess juice at reduced prices.
 
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Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,038
4,800
136
I'd love to have an electric rear wheel drive vehicle. VW got the message from motorists with the ID.4 line so I wonder if the General will get it too.
 
Nov 8, 2012
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I just gotta wonder if HUR DUR $75k truck drivers are willing to buy electric trucks or will get butt-hurt about it?

Either way, I think US auto manufacturers will fail miserably just like they always do with everything having to do with the very basics of the market.


They hinge entirely on high mark-up of gas-guzzling pickup trucks. They fail miserably at simple cars, SUVS, etc... from competitors.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
Having owned a Model 3 for the past 2.5 years, I don't think your number is accurate... unless we're talking about older non-Tesla vehicles that don't support DC Fast Charging. I don't drive long distances often, but I did take my car on a ~900 mile trip (each way) back in 2019. Typically, going from about 5-15% to 85-95%, it would take about 20-30 minutes. Now, there are a ton of small points to make about this...
  • Tesla vehicles can charge very quickly under nominal circumstances; however, the chargers can be flaky at times. This is worse due to how Superchargers are generally spread out with dozens of miles in between (outside of large metro areas) as where if a gas station has pump issues, there's usually another close by. One awkward problem that I ran into is that one charger just didn't work well at certain times of the day regardless of the number of people at the station. It worked fine at 8 AM and 8 PM, but it operated at 20% of the speed at 12 PM.
  • Tesla chargers are sometimes located in very odd areas. For example, when I was up in PA, one charger was literally behind a grocery store in a strip mall; I was staring at their dumpsters as I was charging. I can't imagine how you'd convince any timid individual to charge there at night. In Chattanooga, TN, the charger is located in the airport's long-term parking, and yes, you have to pull a ticket to access it.
  • Tesla's navigation software doesn't allow for customizable charge-related settings. The software tries to push for the smallest amount of charges, and it will often push you to low amounts of charge (note my mention of 5% above). Keep in mind that batteries don't perform as well at a lower charge/voltage, so performance is worse as your charge drops. The car also performs its planning of when you'll need to charge based upon your prior usage rate, but this may not consider upcoming terrain changes (e.g. going from a flatter area to a more mountainous area).
Amusingly enough, a friend of mine that owns a Model X just bought an ICE-powered car because he's tired of range anxiety on trips. I believe he travels to see his folks often, and that trip just doesn't have great Supercharger support. I was talking to him the other day after being frustrated at it taking 10 minutes to enter the new WiFi password into my Model 3, and he told me that if he had to keep just one, he'd keep the ICE-powered car. (As a note, I had to reboot the car's system to get it to take the WiFi password. Go Tesla quality! )
The time of day issues might be peak load shedding. I know most corporations have a maximum instantaneous power draw allowed during peak hours. I'd think chargers would be smart enough to balance that across the whole station, though.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
Personally, I think that the automakers should agree on a universal fast charging standard before producing millions of vehicles with competing standards. Most of the existing standards either suck, or are owned by Tesla.

Otherwise, we're going to end up with something like a USB Micro vs. USB-C vs. Lightning port charger fiasco on a much grander scale.
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
OR it presents an opportunity to create the necessary infra structure and the jobs associated with that effort. Also if tenants want electric cars and that becomes a factor driving where they rent then land lords will address that need.

Heh... When was the last time you asked a landlord to upgrade something in an apartment complex, and actually got them to do it? There is a reason that most of the older apartment complexes still have window unit air conditioners and manual garage doors.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
If automatic cars can eliminate the traffic caused by multiple fast moving major highways culminating into much smaller infrastructure like the Lincoln Tunnel and spitting them out a mile later into much much slower streets I'm all ears. It will help but it's certainly not the solution. Getting individuals out of cars that take up all that space to carry one person, and into mass transit, will probably be a bigger solution.
well, theoretically it can absolutely do that.

...but then there is reality, lol. the will, the money, the implementation of making this sort of system possible.

But I do think it's the type of thing that really needs to happen in major metro areas. The tech is coming, though:

VW is supposed to have implemented a cloud system, for 2020 model year (at least in Europe--I don't know about here), that can communicate with any other VW with the same features in your general area, and basically share travel information between vehicles. This....I don't think is it:


But I read about it a year ago and can't right now find the details for that. (it might have been more of a concept that they were talking about, and just slowly stopped talking about it, lol).

Obviously Mass transit is the best general solution for big metro areas, but it still isn't perfect for everyone's needs, all the time. Also, encouraging people to use mass transit is a current and long-term thing that we have already been working on for decades. If we are still talking about the need to do that now, and in years to come, then obviously we have insurmountable issues here.

...encouraging and convincing people to fucking live where they fucking work would be the most effective solution to address a lot of our current traffic problems, without having to jump into world-changing technological leaps...but yeah, good luck with that, lol.
 
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Dec 10, 2005
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Also, encouraging people to use mass transit is a current and long-term thing that we have already been working on for decades.
I'd argue we've hardly been doing this. We may be telling people to do this, but we're sending the opposite message when we keep expanding highways, providing free/cheap parking, allowing commuter benefits to pay for parking, and simultaneously undercutting mass transit with poor service and (sometimes) high fares (since, for some reason, only mass transit needs to pay for itself).
 
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