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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,986
13,508
136
It appears that covid19 is far less deadly than was first thought.
That is one thing that subtracts, add those who died/dies without a test, subtract those who died with a test but from a piano falling on their head, possibly subtract those who lived from all other shit not happening in a lockdown. Think we are looking at 0.5%-ish but add to that that its heavily more infectious than the common flu ... So either way its no breeze but coulda been worse. Still. Testing and tracing * 1000000000
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
38,161
18,654
146
WRT OP: imagine, for just a second, that we (our leadership) was competent. High positive tests with the same amount of deaths would obviously equal a lower mortality rate, which would've translated into less FUD, less economic impact, but also less money for the .01%.

Why would our Republican leadership proceed (and still) hide numbers, lie about testing, allow at home antibody tests to be such a snake oil sales pitch?

Because they only know how to politicize, not actually lead.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,619
8,518
136
It appears that covid19 is far less deadly than was first thought.

I don't know about "far less" that "was first thought". From the start the figures seemed to suggest a case fatality rate of between 1 and 2% (Diamond Princess passengers currently have case fatality rate of 2%). And the figures in that article remain consistent with that. The figures they give (e.g. for NYC) aren't even based on 'excess deaths' only on officially registered covid deaths, so probably miss quite a few deaths that were actually due to the disease but not tested and recorded as such, thus reducing the numerator, hence the true figure should be higher than the one the article quotes.

Also even a rate between 1 and 2% is way higher than the flu death rate. And that flu death rate is NOT based on officially-registered flu deaths, it's based on making estimates after looking at the increase in the total death rate. So to make a legit comparison you'd have to do that for Covid19 deaths, and if you do, you get a figure 25% higher than the official rate.

That article seems to be doing it's utmost to minimise the figures and put the most optimistic gloss possible on them.

 

allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
25,073
4,525
136
Not when the antibody test results are wrong half of the time:



This. Antibody testing pointing to ANY conclusion is meaningless as long as antibody tests are so inaccurate.
 
Reactions: ch33zw1z

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,705
28,875
136
This has already been well established. The death rate has been vastly over-estimated by people that can't do simple math.

The best means of this calculation was through things such as outbreaks on cruise ships where the majority of the people onboard had the virus - but few still died from it.... and that was with cruise ships having a vastly elderly crowd.
Based on simple math (deaths/current cases) the death rate is 6.2%. Remember that's EVERYONE all locations all age groups not just a cruise ship. (Johns Hopkins map)
 

Lanyap

Elite Member
Dec 23, 2000
8,184
2,224
136
This. Antibody testing pointing to ANY conclusion is meaningless as long as antibody tests are so inaccurate.



It will probably take another year or two, at least, before we have enough meaningful data to accurately analyze this pandemic.

:RantOn:
Republicans will hopefully be out of power by then. I have absolutely no faith in any government entity at this point with the Trump admin and Republican senate in charge. Trump has his hand in everything that happens telling people what to do and say. I question everything they say and do. There is no stability. Our government is in chaos.
:RantOff:
 
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