GOP ACA Replacement Imminent....Predictions

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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,337
15,133
136
The political consequences of passing this turd of a bill are indeed very bad. But passing nothing at all will be worse. Voters reject parties in total control who don't get things done. It affects midterm elections a great deal.

Not passing anything would be worse? Is that under the assumption that Republicans would also be doing what they can to impede the success of the ACA, as they have been doing since its passage? Or it would be worse if nothing changed and everything was left the same?
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
Not passing anything would be worse? Is that under the assumption that Republicans would also be doing what they can to impede the success of the ACA, as they have been doing since its passage? Or it would be worse if nothing changed and everything was left the same?

If by impeding, you mean not doing anything to fix Obamacare, then...it doesn't matter either way. They are perceived by the electorate as owning it all right now. They could pass a new bill, but failed to do so. They could fix Obamacare, but failed to do so. Either way, they look weak and ineffectual, like they're fiddling while Rome burns.
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,425
8,388
126
I think i understand why the GOP didn't want to present a unified Obamacare replacement before the election now, if they presented that turd to the American people, Hillary would have won in a landslide even if it turned out she murdered kittens in her spare time.
NOOOOO CAN"T GET THE IMAGE OF HILARY KILLING KITTENS OUTOF MY HEADDDD!!!!

*headexplodes*
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
You were apparently saying that cheap HI was no good because we couldn't use it.

I'm saying that expensive HI that we can't use is no good either, only more expensive.

-------------------------

Otherwise, you seem to confuse HI with health care. HI =/= HC. The apparent inability of people to differentiate the two, particularly many in Congress, is a large part of our problem in trying to solve the problem.

Fern

Except even if we assume ACA plans are mostly or significantly "high deductible" (not true, but just for argument's sake), those high deductible plans would still by definition be infinitely better than pre-ACA barebones plans that didn't actually cover people when they got a major illness. Which renders your whole point, well, mostly moot, as clearly his post delineated how vastly superior post-ACA plans on the individual market are.
 
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Reactions: ivwshane

lopri

Elite Member
Jul 27, 2002
13,211
597
126
Breitbart is laying down a blueprint for scapgoating Paul Ryan. It strongly points to the bill's demise being a foregone conclusion, but I won't rule anything out with this administration.

Exclusive — Audio Emerges of When Paul Ryan Abandoned Donald Trump: ‘I Am Not Going to Defend Donald Trump—Not Now, Not in the Future’

Now, Ryan—still the Speaker—has pushed now President Donald Trump to believe his healthcare legislation the American Health Care Act would repeal and replace Obamacare when it does not repeal Obamacare. Ryan has also, according to Trump ally Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), misled President Trump into believing that Ryan’s bill can pass Congress. Paul and others believe the bill is dead on arrival in the U.S. Senate since a number of GOP senators have come out against it, and there are serious questions about whether it can pass the House. This is the first major initiative that Trump has worked on with Ryan—and the fact it is going so poorly calls into question whether Speaker Ryan, the GOP’s failed 2012 vice presidential nominee who barely supported Trump at all in 2016, really understands how Trump won and how to win in general...

.. What’s more, the bill has virtually zero chance of ever passing the Senate should it get there. Sens. Paul, Mike Lee (R-UT), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), James Lankford (R-OK), Dean Heller (R-NV), Susan Collins (R-ME), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Ben Sasse (R-NE)—among other GOP senators—have all raised concerns about it. Paul, Lee and Cotton have been particularly vocal, while Graham has raised concerns with the process..
..
Ryan has been unwilling to negotiate on the specifics of his bill, which has earned multiple negative monikers like “Obamacare 2.0,” “Obamacare Lite,” “RyanCare,” and “RINO-CARE” from detractors. But President Trump and his true allies, despite what Ryan’s allies inside the White House say publicly, have been much more willing to negotiate, according to House and Senate conservatives who have had direct conversations with the president.

“We have gotten a signal from the White House that the bill might be completely pulled and a more transparent and inclusive process could start as early as next week,” one senior Republican Senate aide told Breitbart News on Friday. “House leadership misled the White House on how popular this bill would be with conservatives..”

.. But in conversations Breitbart News has had with no fewer than 15 other White House aides, including many on the press team, it is clear that the President and the senior Trump administration team are not happy with this bill’s lack of conservative support. The President and his team were assured by Ryan that conservatives would, in fact, be on board with it in the beginning, something that has turned out to not be accurate. Interestingly, much more so than Ryan and his House GOP leadership team, the White House is much more open to significant negotiation on the details in a healthcare bill—including the structure, vehicle, timeline and more. Several senior White House aides confirmed to Breitbart News that while the administration is publicly touting the bill as the party line, the President is much more willing to wheel and deal on this front than Ryan loyalists on his team would have anyone believe.

(emphases mine)
 
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lopri

Elite Member
Jul 27, 2002
13,211
597
126
Ryan may be sacked. I expect to hear rumors about his corruption and hidden mistresses, as well as a potential criminal investigation, following shortly thereafter. XD Maybe Trump is going to systematically chop off GOP's faces and organs before he gets to pass anything. Maybe that process will consume most of his term and Bannon's projects never get to take off (but get embroiled in court battles instead).

/indulgence
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
Bump.

I voted for "It won't happen, they won't pass either repeal or replacement". Looks like that's what went down, only question is, is this permanent. It's always possible R's will actually work with the Dems this time to do routine tweaks to ACA to make it better and....oh who am I kidding, they'll kick the can down the road as long as possible until Dems take control again.
 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,658
5,228
136
I voted based on the "looks" part (like ACA but worse).

The fate is another question.

I would have voted "dies in Senate." I figured the idiots could at least get something out of their own house, and it's so awful a few sens would have broken ranks.
 

Balt

Lifer
Mar 12, 2000
12,674
482
126
I have some doubts they'll get anything passed. The Tea Party caucus is still in the House. Are they going to support anything other than a total repeal? Dems aren't going to help Republicans on this one, since any plan Republicans put forth will almost certainly kick some people off of insurance and/or Medicaid.

The idea that was floated for a while to base tax credits for health insurance on age rather than income was pretty hilarious. GOP wants to keep their old voters alive, but poor people can go fuck themselves. It was actually suggested that basing it on income would discourage work. Because we all know that everyone wants to avoid getting a better job just so that they can get a larger tax credit for some shitty barebones health insurance plan.

Just going to quote myself from March 3.
 
Reactions: ch33zw1z

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
People like affordable access to healthcare, YES EVEN RIGHT WING REPUBLICANS

Gee....
What if they never wanted to scrap Obamacare in the first place?
What if all of those votes to repeal Obamacare WHILE Obama was president were all just their release of anger?
Like getting sooooo mad at your wife but punching your fist thru the wall rather than thru her face?
Republicans way of tossing a tissy fit like a three year old child denied a candy bar in the grocery store checkout lane?

Maybe... just maybe republicans LOVE Obamacare.
They like it. They actually like it, and Obama too!
Yes.... they actually liked the skinny black guy that sat in the oval office.
Maybe just maybe they, republicans, were absolutely TERRIFIED at the notion Obamacare could actually be murdered off by THEIR VERY ACTION?

How many republicans are sitting back, right now tonight, wiping the sweat off their forehead and SOOOO RELIEVED that ACA i.e. Obamacare is alive, safe and well?
A lot of them I would bet.
In fact.... most all of them.

What republicans did using their extreme far right FREEDOM GROUP personnel was to use them to make Trumpcare appear SO TERRIFYING that no republican would vote for it.
And SO TERRIFYING that none of their base would support it.
What if all along THIS was their grand scheme?

What if Paul Ryan standing up there before the people last week looking so happy and so content envisioning Trumpcare in America, Paul Ryan's wet dream of eliminating EVERY social safety net, what if all that from Paul Ryan was simply faking his "lets pretend" dream?
Like pretending humans had wings and could fly like a bird, or that every human had super powers like Clark Kent and Superman?
What if Paul Ryan was only up there dishing out a double serving of Ryan fantasy land?
You know, that Paul Ryan "IN A PERFECT WORLD" ?

What if indeed all of this was only a republican stunt?
A stunt because suddenly republicans found themselves IN POWER and that reality was unthinkable for them.
God forbid they must now be forced to pony up on their promises.
Or..... There was indeed a PLAN B.
Oh look!
The Freedom Group!
Let them the FREEDOM FIGHTERS make this thing, this Trumpcare thing appear soooo terribly awful and sinister that we will save our very ass from what we fear most.
Actually repealing Obamacare...

And face it.
This PLAN B would fit like a glove right into the Trump world of illusion, delusion, and fantasy island.
The world of "REALITY TRUMP TV".
The Freedom fighters scare off ACA repeal support.
Trump blames democrats.
And everyone is happy.
Mr. DeMille, Mr Trump is Ready for his Close-Up.
 
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First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
So, 3 months have passed and this thing is basically gonna die in the Senate.

NOBODY SAW THIS COMING

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/26/republican-health-care-bill-revisions-239948

Senate GOP revises health bill in hunt for votes
Republicans are tweaking their plan to repeal Obamacare to try to curb dissent in the party.

By BURGESS EVERETT and JENNIFER HABERKORN

06/26/2017 08:29 AM EDT

Updated 06/26/2017 03:00 PM EDT

Senate Republicans released a revised version of their bill to repeal Obamacare Monday and are preparing further changes to overcome deep opposition in the party toward last week's initial effort, according to people familiar with the matter.

The updated text is intended to promote continuous health coverage, which was left out of the discussion draft released Thursday and is designed to encourage people to buy insurance ahead of an emergency.

The Republican leadership and its allies as well, as President Donald Trump, are working furiously to tamp down criticism of the legislation and a voting timetable that will provide perhaps just a couple a days for senators to review the final product.

Trump called undecided GOP senators including Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia to feel them out on healthcare, said White House press secretary Sean Spicer on Monday afternoon.

In a pointed exchange with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Monday, Johnson said the bill does "nothing adequate to bring down the premiums" and said that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) should allow more time before a vote. Hewitt responded: "That’s why you got reelected, to pass this bill this week. It’s a disaster not to do so."

“You don’t have to do it this week. I just completely disagree ... I see what leadership’s trying to do. They’re trying to jam this thing through," Johnson said.

Pressed on how he will vote if forced to do so this week, Johnson said he prefers not to kill the bill: “I’ve not said I’m a no. But I'm not a yes yet."

Despite the complaints, Republicans are still expecting a vote this week as McConnell aims to reach a conclusion before the July 4 recess.

After previously leaving the door open to a vote next month, party whip John Cornyn of Texas said on Twitter that "we need to do it this week before double digit premium increases are announced for next year."

Most people in the party's leadership believe that letting the bill hang out over a recess will result in more "no" votes and hurt the GOP's momentum. Earlier on Monday, the president also suggested that the party could let insurance markets collapse if the bill fails this week.

"Republican Senators are working very hard to get there, with no help from the Democrats. Not easy! Perhaps just let OCare crash & burn!" Trump said in a tweet.
 

Azuma Hazuki

Golden Member
Jun 18, 2012
1,532
866
131
Oh God I hope Ryan gets the royal treatment. It would be so fitting if the guy who creams himself on the regular imagining millions of people suffering and dying from lack of healthcare gets shitcanned over the very abomination he's trying to foist off on the American public.

I love watching evil people tear each other to shreds, devouring one anothers' putrid flesh and drinking their rotten acidic blood over each others' screams. They are already in Hell while still in the body.
 

zzyzxroad

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2017
3,245
2,260
136
Oh God I hope Ryan gets the royal treatment. It would be so fitting if the guy who creams himself on the regular imagining millions of people suffering and dying from lack of healthcare gets shitcanned over the very abomination he's trying to foist off on the American public.

I love watching evil people tear each other to shreds, devouring one anothers' putrid flesh and drinking their rotten acidic blood over each others' screams. They are already in Hell while still in the body.

Are you talking about ryancare? He needs to own it.
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
24,843
9,092
136
Don't go celebrating yet... Plenty of wiggle room for revised drafts tomorrow and Wednesday, and I don't doubt for a second that McConnell can squeeze enough juice from the old prunes in his party to pass this turd this week. Whether or not the House can resolve it and the President signs it is anyone's guess, but I'm pretty sure the Senate will pass this along with Pence.
 

zzyzxroad

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2017
3,245
2,260
136
Don't go celebrating yet... Plenty of wiggle room for revised drafts tomorrow and Wednesday, and I don't doubt for a second that McConnell can squeeze enough juice from the old prunes in his party to pass this turd this week. Whether or not the House can resolve it and the President signs it is anyone's guess, but I'm pretty sure the Senate will pass this along with Pence.
Yeah I think the mandate is out to these spineless gimps and this is going to get passed.
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
38,000
18,346
146
Oh God I hope Ryan gets the royal treatment. It would be so fitting if the guy who creams himself on the regular imagining millions of people suffering and dying from lack of healthcare gets shitcanned over the very abomination he's trying to foist off on the American public.

I love watching evil people tear each other to shreds, devouring one anothers' putrid flesh and drinking their rotten acidic blood over each others' screams. They are already in Hell while still in the body.
I would love watching, sans the fact that Americans are the ones who will get screwed by the end of this.
 

Azuma Hazuki

Golden Member
Jun 18, 2012
1,532
866
131
This feels like one of those nightmares where you're rooted to the ground and you can see the monster coming for you but can't move. And all the monster's prey, who think they've struck a bargain with it not to be eaten, are standing on the sidelines and cheering. Stupid bastards have no idea what kind of contract they've made.

One thing is for certain: this will end in one of two ways, either a violent revolution or the death of the US as a country.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,639
12,767
146
This feels like one of those nightmares where you're rooted to the ground and you can see the monster coming for you but can't move. And all the monster's prey, who think they've struck a bargain with it not to be eaten, are standing on the sidelines and cheering. Stupid bastards have no idea what kind of contract they've made.

One thing is for certain: this will end in one of two ways, either a violent revolution or the death of the US as a country.
Interestingly, and because I'm not up to snuff on my history, I just did a quick google for 'cause of french revolution'. The first hit is a coursework guide for a college, as follows...
https://www.mtholyoke.edu/courses/rschwart/hist151s03/french_rev_causes_consequences.htm
... in which it lists the following...
Causes of the French Revolution
1. International: struggle for hegemony and Empire outstrips the fiscal resources of the state
2. Political conflict: conflict between the Monarchy and the nobility over the “reform” of the tax system led to paralysis and bankruptcy.
3. The Enlightenment: impulse for reform intensifies political conflicts; reinforces traditional aristocratic constitutionalism, one variant of which was laid out in Montequieu’s Spirit of the Laws; introduces new notions of good government, the most radical being popular sovereignty, as in Rousseau’s Social Contract [1762]; the attack on the regime and privileged class by the Literary Underground of “Grub Street;” the broadening influence of public opinion.
4. Social antagonisms between two rising groups: the aristocracy and the bourgeoisie
5. Ineffective ruler: Louis XVI
6. Economic hardship, especially the agrarian crisis of 1788-89 generates popular discontent and disorders caused by food shortages.
We've already got severe issues with #1 related to our military 'outreach'. #2, political conflict, I really don't even have to touch on, although bankruptcy doesn't quite apply here just yet. #3, Enlightenment has been ongoing since the 50's or so, and is only accelerating, much to the chagrin of some. #4, again, no sense even mentioning. #5 just makes me laugh, and #6, we're already looking at a rising tide of financial inequality that's already just an educated populace away from general popular discontent, although 'food shortages' is probably not something in the near future for most of the nation.

Note that I'm not suggesting we're at the point of 1790's France, it's just interesting to draw parallels in history. I think our 'ruling class' sometimes forgets how effective 300m pissed off people with rebar can be.
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republicans-key-repeal-vote-delay-240010

Republicans delay Obamacare repeal vote until after recess
The bill lacked sufficient support to even begin debate amid resistance from moderate and conservative Republicans.

By JENNIFER HABERKORN and BURGESS EVERETT

06/27/2017 01:12 PM EDT

Updated 06/27/2017 01:52 PM EDT

Update, 1:52 p.m.:
Senate Republicans have delayed their plans to vote on repealing Obamacare this week, GOP senators said on Tuesday.

The bill lacks sufficient support to even begin debate amid resistance from moderate and conservative Republicans.

SHOCKING.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Not being able to muster the votes to proceed ain't a promising sign.

Reports that McConnell wants to make changes to the bill and go get a new CBO score.
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
24,843
9,092
136
Not being able to muster the votes to proceed ain't a promising sign.
Then again, neither is giving McConnell more time a good sign. So much for a quick yay-nay and declaring Obamacare the law of the land and moving on to tax reform/infrastructure.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Then again, neither is giving McConnell more time a good sign. So much for a quick yay-nay and declaring Obamacare the law of the land and moving on to tax reform/infrastructure.

The longer it goes the worse it gets. If healthcare starts running up against fall deadlines like the budget, debt ceiling, etc there will be no room for it.
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
Well, this did catch my eye in Politico:

McConnell warns Trump, GOP on health bill failure
If Obamacare repeal fails in the Senate, the GOP might be forced to compromise with Democrats.

By BURGESS EVERETT , JOSH DAWSEY and JENNIFER HABERKORN

06/27/2017 10:11 AM EDT

Mitch McConnell is delivering an urgent warning to staffers, Republican senators and even the president himself: If Obamacare repeal fails this week, the GOP will lose all leverage and be forced to work with Chuck Schumer.

President Donald Trump continued to float the possibility on Monday that Congress and the White House would simply let Obamacare’s individual markets collapse if the GOP’s repeal effort goes down later this week. But McConnell called up Trump recently, according to people with knowledge of the call, to deliver a reality check.
 
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