GOP ACA Replacement Imminent....Predictions

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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Yup, would love to see it. Unfortunately I don't think middle class Americans are ready for another big addition to their payroll taxes ala Medicare/SS, which is what it would take to fund single payer. Even if the math worked out and, say, those in the middle no longer paid $4,000 in private HC premiums every year and instead paid $2,000 in payroll taxes each year for their single payer, it would still be an incredibly hard sell. Just from a practical standpoint, no way the nutters in power would agree to the necessary payroll tax increases to make this happen. The only shot is January 2021 when Repubs are out of power.

Repubs would love single payer if they could push the burden down the scale & eliminate ACA surtaxes on high incomes...

It might even sell if the middle class still had the share of national income we did 40 years ago... you know, before America fell for Ronnie & trickle down economics.
 
Reactions: Engineer

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
6,572
7,823
136
Oh man this lunch is a hot mess.

Trump promises 60-70% premium drops, makes awkward jokes about Heller (who's sitting next to him), and says the Senate should stay though the summer to work on healthcare.

It's amazing how little Trump knows about how congress works. The August recess is not really a vacation, it's fundraising season. Telling them they can't go back to their states and fund-raise is like telling them they must shoot themselves in the foot. Hell..he doesn't even understand that Congress is a separate branch of government. I don't think he fully grasps the fact that Senators and Representatives are not his employees. If he had run his comments past any competent staffer, he might have made a speech that didn't offend the very people he is trying to get to cooperate with him.

This is just another example of why "run the government like a business" is such an epic fail. Businesses don't have Constitutionally independent branches; the VP of Business Development isn't an elected official who can refuse to do the CEO's bidding.
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,573
5,096
136
First, what would it matter where or to whom the deduction is made out.....a payroll ded. for ins. premium to a private co. or a payroll ded. for ins. premium for "Medicare for all," esp. if the deduction is dropped by half.

And secondly, what happens to the ins. premiums that the employer was making to said private co. for their share of the premiums? Keep the money? Essentially, it was money being paid out to the employee as a benefit, so it should return to the employee as a pay increase, right? So wouldn't that sort balance out the fears of massive tax increases?


Yup, would love to see it. Unfortunately I don't think middle class Americans are ready for another big addition to their payroll taxes ala Medicare/SS, which is what it would take to fund single payer. Even if the math worked out and, say, those in the middle no longer paid $4,000 in private HC premiums every year and instead paid $2,000 in payroll taxes each year for their single payer, it would still be an incredibly hard sell. Just from a practical standpoint, no way the nutters in power would agree to the necessary payroll tax increases to make this happen. The only shot is January 2021 when Repubs are out of power.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,526
27,832
136
$4000 per year? Try $14,400 per year with a $3000 deductible for my family plan. Healthcare costs me more than federal and state income taxes combined. Increase my Medicare taxes eightfold but get rid of my healthcare spending and I come out ahead. Single payer is a no-brainer for me.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,868
34,815
136
New AP poll finding that a growing majority of Americans expect the federal government to make sure people have healthcare.

A new poll suggests the country may be shifting toward the political left on the issue, with 62 percent saying it’s the federal government’s responsibility to make sure that all Americans have health care coverage, while 37 percent say it is not.

The survey findings from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicate a change in public attitudes over the past few months, as concerns mounted about GOP legislation estimated to leave tens of millions without coverage.

“Nobody should be without insurance,” said Louise Prieto of Fort Lee, New Jersey, a retiree covered by Medicare. She said she’s most concerned about seniors, children and people with pre-existing medical conditions. The latest Republican legislation — repealing “Obamacare” with no replacement— would increase the number of people who are uninsured by 32 million in 2026, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

As recently as March, the AP-NORC poll had found Americans more ambivalent about the federal government’s role, with a slim 52 percent majority saying health coverage is a federal responsibility, and 47 percent saying it is not.


GOP plan still not so popular...

Seventy-three percent opposed giving states the option to let insurers charge some people higher premiums because of their medical history. And 57 percent opposed allowing states to reduce the types of benefits that federal law now requires insurers to cover. Similarly, 64 percent opposed allowing states to permit some health plans to omit coverage for mental health and drug addiction treatment. There was also solid opposition to Medicaid cuts (62 percent) and overwhelming disapproval (78 percent) for allowing insurers to raise premiums for older adults beyond what is currently permitted.

https://apnews.com/658e976fca5e40fe...n=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP
 

Sea Ray

Golden Member
May 30, 2013
1,459
31
91
You'd be wrong about that.

In a recent poll conducted by The Economist/YouGov (Apr. 2-4, 2017), Question #81 was: "Opinion on health reforms – Expanding Medicare to provide health insurance to every American."

The responses broke down to this: 60% approved (somewhat to strongly approved), 23% opposed (somewhat to strongly opposed), 17% unsure.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/divhts7l9t/econTabReport.pdf
(Question 81, pg. 88)

This poll tracks others, so, yes, most Americans favor something like expanding Medicare for all.

Medicare only pays about 80% of medical expenses. Folks also aren't figuring on tax increases on them to pay for it. Both Presidential candidates were against Medicare for all. Do you really think most people want Medicare when they'll also have to pay out of their own pocket for a gap plan?
 

Sea Ray

Golden Member
May 30, 2013
1,459
31
91
You keep dancing around a big issue. Your wife is 60 yrs old, has a history of cancer and heart problems. She will be uninsurable with the exception of whatever sick pool your state opens up.

Oh & don't forget, in the blink of an eye you'll be age 55, get ready for premium increases that will make your eyes bulge!

I'm not dancing around anything. The essential elements have nothing to do with making people like my wife uninsurable. Nothing. As for the rest of the Republican plan, I don't share your sky is falling attitude. If I was prone to such panic attacks I'd be panicking right now because I'm already looking at a market with no ins options right now in 5 mos.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,868
34,815
136
Medicare only pays about 80% of medical expenses. Folks also aren't figuring on tax increases on them to pay for it. Both Presidential candidates were against Medicare for all. Do you really think most people want Medicare when they'll also have to pay out of their own pocket for a gap plan?

Close the gap and tax the wealthy to do it. Done.
 

Sea Ray

Golden Member
May 30, 2013
1,459
31
91
$4000 per year? Try $14,400 per year with a $3000 deductible for my family plan. Healthcare costs me more than federal and state income taxes combined. Increase my Medicare taxes eightfold but get rid of my healthcare spending and I come out ahead. Single payer is a no-brainer for me.

For someone like you or me, it saves us a lot of money but most Americans won't see it that way. Most Americans aren't paying anywhere near that much. They will balk at a significant tax increase to pay for their healthcare
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,526
27,832
136
For someone like you or me, it saves us a lot of money but most Americans won't see it that way. Most Americans aren't paying anywhere near that much. They will balk at a significant tax increase to pay for their healthcare
Employers really need to lay out the costs of their health plans for the employees to see. If everybody knew what the private insurance industry actually costs, we would have a single payer system last Tuesday.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,526
27,832
136
There's only so many rich guys you can tax. After awhile you have to find others to tax.
There are only so many rich folks but they have a crap ton more money than they used to. The rich have been kicking ass in class warfare.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,868
34,815
136
There are only so many rich folks but they have a crap ton more money than they used to. The rich have been kicking ass in class warfare.

This basically. All the wealth has been and continues to be sucked to the top. Tax them.

In the interest of disclosure I probably qualify as one of the "them" here.
 

Sea Ray

Golden Member
May 30, 2013
1,459
31
91
Employers really need to lay out the costs of their health plans for the employees to see. If everybody knew what the private insurance industry actually costs, we would have a single payer system last Tuesday.

If employers dropped out of the health insurance business altogether and everyone was on their own to buy it like car insurance we'd have single payer last Tuesday
 

Sea Ray

Golden Member
May 30, 2013
1,459
31
91
There are only so many rich folks but they have a crap ton more money than they used to. The rich have been kicking ass in class warfare.

They have but we only have 500 billionaires in this country. Tax them all a million dollars and we still have only a half bill. That's pennies and nickels what it'll cost to fund this.

Do you have any idea how much money it'd take to fund single payer? I think this article describes it pretty well:

http://www.thedailyliberator.com/much-single-payer-health-insurance-cost/

What would it cost if we insured everybody, all 326 million Americans?

Somewhere between $2.5 trillion and $3.5 trillion. An additional $1.35 trillion to $2.35 trillion more than the feds spend on Medicaid/Medicare now.

In 2016 the feds only brought in $3.27 trillion and spent $3.85 trillion. Where are the extra trillions supposed to come from? Taxes? To cover everyone and pay for it via taxes means the average person would owe an additional $4,100 to $7,200 every year. At a minimum, a family of four would have to pay $16,400 extra. You can buy a damn good private insurance policy for that kind of money … and have enough left over for a down-payment on a nice car.

Let me know where we're going to find $3 trillion
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,526
27,832
136
They have but we only have 500 billionaires in this country. Tax them all a million dollars and we still have only a half bill. That's pennies and nickels what it'll cost to fund this.

Do you have any idea how much money it'd take to fund single payer? I think this article describes it pretty well:

http://www.thedailyliberator.com/much-single-payer-health-insurance-cost/



Let me know where we're going to find $3 trillion
That's some strawman you put up there. Let's tax all income at the current marginal personal income tax rates (abolish the billionaire welfare rate on capital gains) and subject all income to Medicare taxation. Oh look, problem solved. Enjoy a dog biscuit in a commie free world. It really is that easy. The only thing standing in the way is bought politicians.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,333
15,128
136
They have but we only have 500 billionaires in this country. Tax them all a million dollars and we still have only a half bill. That's pennies and nickels what it'll cost to fund this.

Do you have any idea how much money it'd take to fund single payer? I think this article describes it pretty well:

http://www.thedailyliberator.com/much-single-payer-health-insurance-cost/



Let me know where we're going to find $3 trillion

You are annoyingly fucking stupid!

https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2013/44890

Adding a public plan to the exchanges in the manner described in this option would reduce federal budget deficits by $158 billion through 2023, according to estimates by CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). That figure reflects a $37 billion reduction in outlays (mostly from a decrease in exchange subsidies) and a $121 billion increase in revenues (mainly from changes in employment-based health insurance coverage). Those estimates include the option’s effects on other spending and revenues related to health insurance coverage, such as outlays for Medicaid and penalty payments by large employers who do not offer “affordable” health insurance and by people who do not obtain insurance.

Exchange subsidies would be an estimated $39 billion lower between 2016 and 2023 under this option than under current law. Although the premium subsidies are structured as refundable tax credits, in most cases the amounts of those credits will exceed the total amount of federal income tax that recipients owe, and the amounts above the tax owed by recipients are classified as outlays. The cost-sharing subsidies for enrollees in exchange plans are also categorized as outlays. The $39 billion estimated reduction in subsidies consists of a $35 billion reduction in outlays and a $4 billion increase in revenues.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,333
15,128
136
That's some strawman you put up there. Let's tax all income at the current marginal personal income tax rates (abolish the billionaire welfare rate on capital gains) and subject all income to Medicare taxation. Oh look, problem solved. Enjoy a dog biscuit in a commie free world. It really is that easy. The only thing standing in the way is bought politicians.

No, the only thing standing in the way is idiot voters like him who keep electing utter retards to office.
 

Sunburn74

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2009
5,034
2,613
136
They have but we only have 500 billionaires in this country. Tax them all a million dollars and we still have only a half bill. That's pennies and nickels what it'll cost to fund this.

Do you have any idea how much money it'd take to fund single payer? I think this article describes it pretty well:

http://www.thedailyliberator.com/much-single-payer-health-insurance-cost/

Let me know where we're going to find $3 trillion
Single payer improves access to healthcare but does nothing about healthcare costs. Current healthcare costs (ie the prices of stuff the US) are currently unsustainable.
Giving everyone universal access to healthcare is a nice start, but more importantly as a country we need to decide how we want to bring healthcare costs down. Most countries that have universal coverage have numerous regulations and systems that dramatically lower costs and so allows them to cover everyone. In the US we have very little in terms of national policies to decrease the cost of stuff and so we spend/are charged much more for the same goods and services as other countries.
Simply opening up medicare to everyone is great but it will result in a massive ballooning of spending assuming we don't institute policies to cut drug prices, cut medical device prices, etc etc and trust me these industries are not going to just sit there and take it.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,501
136
Single payer improves access to healthcare but does nothing about healthcare costs. Current healthcare costs (ie the prices of stuff the US) are currently unsustainable.
Giving everyone universal access to healthcare is a nice start, but more importantly as a country we need to decide how we want to bring healthcare costs down. Most countries that have universal coverage have numerous regulations and systems that dramatically lower costs and so allows them to cover everyone. In the US we have very little in terms of national policies to decrease the cost of stuff and so we spend/are charged much more for the same goods and services as other countries.
Simply opening up medicare to everyone is great but it will result in a massive ballooning of spending assuming we don't institute policies to cut drug prices, cut medical device prices, etc etc and trust me these industries are not going to just sit there and take it.

If single payer doesn't do anything for costs then why does Medicare pay less than private insurance for the same procedure?
 
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