GOP ACA Replacement Imminent....Predictions

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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
This is going to be a disaster, GOP will own it, and the only solution will be single payer.
 

snoopy7548

Diamond Member
Jan 1, 2005
8,088
5,084
146
Gotta give the GOP credit for sticking to their word. They said they would dismantle Obamacare and it seems like they'll accomplish it at any cost, even if it means the death of those who voted for them.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
4,446
136
McCain will flip. The bullshit Homeland Security Committee hearing on healthcare as well as the Arizona governor coming out in favor of this will push McCain to the yes camp. I'm guessing that this things passes this time. GOP and T-Rump desperate to get this dung on the books.

I don't think so. I think what we are going to find is that almost no republican will vote yes on this bill if they think it actually has a chance to pass. What they want is to be able to walk the tightrope of being able to vote yes on the bill and being able to blame others for it not passing. What they don't want is to have to actually own it, which is what happens if it passes. It is much better to vote no on it, and be able to claim that there was something wrong with this particular bill and that is why they didn't vote for it. I expect that it will pick up some unpopular rider before the process is over. Then you will hear a bunch of Republicans say they can't vote yes on this because of that rider, but they would certainly vote yes on a repeal bill that didn't include such an unpopular item on it.

Then Congress will be to busy to get around to healthcare until the spring. Then, when their base has forgotten the excuses used on this vote, we will repeat the same process, with a new unpopular rider that keeps it from being a Yes vote for just enough to make it fail. Repeat as necessary until after the midterms. Then they just hope that enough Dems get voted in to block anything they propose and then they have their excuse back for not getting anything done.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
Grahm-Cassidy shafts a lot of purple and red states in addition to the royal burn down that will be inflicted on NY/CA. Kentucky, Louisiana, Arizona, Alaska, Maine, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, etc stand to loose billions.

As a long term electoral strategy this looks a tad questionable....
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,681
7,180
136
I don't think so. I think what we are going to find is that almost no republican will vote yes on this bill if they think it actually has a chance to pass. What they want is to be able to walk the tightrope of being able to vote yes on the bill and being able to blame others for it not passing. What they don't want is to have to actually own it, which is what happens if it passes. It is much better to vote no on it, and be able to claim that there was something wrong with this particular bill and that is why they didn't vote for it. I expect that it will pick up some unpopular rider before the process is over. Then you will hear a bunch of Republicans say they can't vote yes on this because of that rider, but they would certainly vote yes on a repeal bill that didn't include such an unpopular item on it.

Then Congress will be to busy to get around to healthcare until the spring. Then, when their base has forgotten the excuses used on this vote, we will repeat the same process, with a new unpopular rider that keeps it from being a Yes vote for just enough to make it fail. Repeat as necessary until after the midterms. Then they just hope that enough Dems get voted in to block anything they propose and then they have their excuse back for not getting anything done.

What you say makes sense to me, other than the notion that the Repubs have tied the tax cuts for the wealthy that are inclusive in their repeal/replace plan to the GMFU tax cut plan they are about to slam the working class and poor with.

I'm not clear on how that affects what your have proffered up in your post.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
McCain said he would reluctantly vote for it if the Arizona governor was for it. I guess so be it. Time to let the dog grab hold of the moving car bumper I suppose.

I'l expect my 'great healthcare' with lower premiums, lower deductibles and better service....just like T-Rump promised.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
I don't think so. I think what we are going to find is that almost no republican will vote yes on this bill if they think it actually has a chance to pass.

Plausible, but wasn't the last one expected to pass with McCain sinking it at the last minute? Are you suggesting that there were GOP Senators voting 'yes' that would have voted 'no' if they didn't know McCain would sink it?
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
I don't think so. I think what we are going to find is that almost no republican will vote yes on this bill if they think it actually has a chance to pass. What they want is to be able to walk the tightrope of being able to vote yes on the bill and being able to blame others for it not passing. What they don't want is to have to actually own it, which is what happens if it passes. It is much better to vote no on it, and be able to claim that there was something wrong with this particular bill and that is why they didn't vote for it. I expect that it will pick up some unpopular rider before the process is over. Then you will hear a bunch of Republicans say they can't vote yes on this because of that rider, but they would certainly vote yes on a repeal bill that didn't include such an unpopular item on it.

Then Congress will be to busy to get around to healthcare until the spring. Then, when their base has forgotten the excuses used on this vote, we will repeat the same process, with a new unpopular rider that keeps it from being a Yes vote for just enough to make it fail. Repeat as necessary until after the midterms. Then they just hope that enough Dems get voted in to block anything they propose and then they have their excuse back for not getting anything done.

While I hope you're right, and have actually thought the same thoughts myself, I just have a feeling that it's going to pass. Would be funny if the house refused to vote on it or voted it down after the senate voted yes on it (maybe for the same reasons that you mention).
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
Another letter from a bipartisan group of Governors opposing bill...with a new addition of Walker - AK. GOP Govs Sandoval (NV), Kasich (OH), and Scott (VT) also oppose

Getting Murkowski to yes not made easier.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
McCain seemingly not on board yet since he's making sarcastic comments to reporters about "regular order" denigrating the GOP approach.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
So again we now have a political party trying to remake 1/6th of the national economy without any indication of their bill's effects because they think the analysis of those effects will be so bad that no one will want to pass it. Whether or not it succeeds that is monstrous.

It also makes me laugh how many times conservatives tried to bring up that (false) Pelosi quote that Congress had to pass it to see what was in it. It's obvious now that conservatives never cared about that, and were more than willing to do exactly what they complained about as soon as they were able.

Speaking of so bad that nobody wants it passed....from August.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/03/poll-republican-health-care-241291

Sixty-four percent of voters across the ideological spectrum disapprove of Republican ideas to replace Obamacare, while just 25 percent are in favor of the legislation presented thus far.


As for outright repeal, only 22 percent of voters surveyed say President Donald Trump and the GOP should repeal the entirety of the Affordable Care Act. Forty percent are in favor of repealing parts of Obamacare, while 33 percent do not want any repeals at all.

If this poll is true (i.e. not a fake news poll), looks like they are playing with fire. Of course, since this is phased in over time, people will forget who put it in place.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Chart showing comparisons of current ACA, the house plan and the new senate plan...

Going to be interesting if this passes to see how a person from one state receives care in another state in an emergency situation, especially if on the state's medicaid plan. Looks like we're going to have 50 or more different regulated healthcare plans going forward.

 
Reactions: trenchfoot

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
It's all about the tax cuts. Repub politicos are banking on getting a piece of it for their re-election campaigns.

It's the same pig, different lipstick.
 
Reactions: Engineer

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,499
136
Trump has indicated he's 100% behind this bill. Remember a few weeks back when he made literally a single bipartisan statement and everyone decided this was the 'New Trump' who wasn't going to try and govern from the extreme right anymore?

Hope we all remember that next time.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
Trump has indicated he's 100% behind this bill. Remember a few weeks back when he made literally a single bipartisan statement and everyone decided this was the 'New Trump' who wasn't going to try and govern from the extreme right anymore?

Hope we all remember that next time.

Trump just wants to sign stuff, anything really. I thought that then and I think it now.

It's hilarious that he's tweeting Grahm-Cassidy is a "great bill" and everybody knows that he has zero idea what it does. Just like all the previous tries on healthcare mustered by the GOP

Objectively G-C is a blind roll of the dice with 1/5th the US economy. All the coverage shows that even the Senate really doesn't know what it does or what the impacts will be but they have to vote for it because it's the last try with reconciliation....regardless of the policy. People should let that sink in for a minute. Many in the GOP in Congress want to pass a bill that they have no idea what the real impacts will be and are flat out lying to people (even their own part members) that they do know. The world's foremost deliberative body indeed.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
Medicaid expansion dies in all variants of this proposed change.

Worse it looks like the bill actively punishes states that expanded Medicaid AND states that got people onto insurance. Florida for example did not expand Medicaid but did aggressively get people signed up for insurance. They stand to loose billions in healthcare funding under the new formula. Same with Louisiana, Alaska, Nevada, etc.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
http://wapo.st/2fArlaL?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.dd3d21792bcb

The boldness of the plan — and the extent to which it would free states from the ACA’s rules — has startled even some Republicans in recent days. “It’s not about health policy any more,” said one former senior GOP congressional staffer. “This is about, in the Senate particularly, they need a vote. They were getting their rear ends hammered by the president and their base. It’s about, ‘Are we winners or losers?’ ”


They literally do not care what it does, at all.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Trump just wants to sign stuff, anything really. I thought that then and I think it now.

It's hilarious that he's tweeting Grahm-Cassidy is a "great bill" and everybody knows that he has zero idea what it does. Just like all the previous tries on healthcare mustered by the GOP

Objectively G-C is a blind roll of the dice with 1/5th the US economy. All the coverage shows that even the Senate really doesn't know what it does or what the impacts will be but they have to vote for it because it's the last try with reconciliation....regardless of the policy. People should let that sink in for a minute. Many in the GOP in Congress want to pass a bill that they have no idea what the real impacts will be and are flat out lying to people (even their own part members) that they do know. The world's foremost deliberative body indeed.

Please. Senate Repubs know it's cornholio for 20M Americans. Don't let them escape the moral responsibility for willful acts.
 

obidamnkenobi

Golden Member
Sep 16, 2010
1,407
423
136
Hypothesis, could this happen: GOP pass.. something.. which of course mess up ACA and collapse the healthcare market, make insurance unaffordable for most and no one with per-existing conditions can get coverage (what true free market health insurance would look like). In more liberal states (west coast + NE basically. CO? Maybe FL, but guess old people have medicare, so what do they care?) they have the means and political will to move aggressively to stabilize the market and even offer single payer systems. I believe some have talked about this already. Result is even more fragmented, two-tier system with uninsured, dying, sick people in the middle and south, and almost European-like "socialized medicine" (the horror..) on the coastal states.

Conceivable? What would the federal response be? (Blame Obama..?). Considering the red state rednecks gave us Trump, tea party et.al I'm not sure I see a problem with this..
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
Please. Senate Repubs know it's cornholio for 20M Americans. Don't let them escape the moral responsibility for willful acts.

At least some of them seem genuinely confused about what the impacts will be. Which makes sense since the bill proposes radical, previously unanalyzed, changes to the system.
 
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