GOP ACA Replacement Imminent....Predictions

[Engineer]

McCain is waffling now a bit again. Apparently the solution to giving this thing a fig leaf of "regular order" is to hold a sham hearing on it in the Homeland Security committee.

For the rest of time until the sun burns out the GOP doesn't get to talk shit again about how the Democrats passed bills. This entire "process" is the most craven and shameless thing I've ever seen attempted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-along-graham-cassidy/?utm_term=.2eccf58b9f9f

Yep.

 

[vi edit]

When you resort to shady ass back room sleaze to fuck over 30 million Americans, don't come crying to me when another desperate plebe with an assault rifle tries to gun your old, spiteful asses down.

I'm not advocating violence. But if you want to bring out desperation in people, this is exactly how you do it.

 

[K1052]

Assuming Rand Paul pussies out as usual and McCain flips they have the votes to pass. The house would need to pass the same bill as is.

 

[fskimospy]

Assuming Rand Paul pussies out as usual and McCain flips they have the votes to pass. The house would need to pass the same bill as is.

That of course assumes all the other people who voted for 'skinny repeal' would actually do so again if they were the deciding vote. There's at least a decent amount of rumblings that a half dozen other senators wanted to vote no but didn't have to. That too was for a bill that they thought was terrible but would be 'fixed' in conference with the House. In this case it's a 'take it or leave it'.

I have no idea if that's true, but it wouldn't be that surprising to me. The basic end result of all of these bills is throwing tens of millions off their insurance in order to cut taxes for rich people. Nothing about that's really changed.

 

[K1052]

When you resort to shady ass back room sleaze to fuck over 30 million Americans, don't come crying to me when another desperate plebe with an assault rifle tries to gun your old, spiteful asses down.

I'm not advocating violence. But if you want to bring out desperation in people, this is exactly how you do it.

This is, perhaps, a dramatically under appreciated possibility since the Republican congress will have this "achievement" tattooed on their foreheads.

 

[K1052]

That of course assumes all the other people who voted for 'skinny repeal' would actually do so again if they were the deciding vote. There's at least a decent amount of rumblings that a half dozen other senators wanted to vote no but didn't have to. That too was for a bill that they thought was terrible but would be 'fixed' in conference with the House. In this case it's a 'take it or leave it'.

I have no idea if that's true, but it wouldn't be that surprising to me. The basic end result of all of these bills is throwing tens of millions off their insurance in order to cut taxes for rich people. Nothing about that's really changed.

Yes, there is still uncertainty and this is far closer to the less popular BCRA than the "skinny repeal". But these are some not great omens. Paul's principles often evaporate in the moment and the pressure from the leadership not to get primaried by fanatics has grown.

Passage in the House of course is no sure thing since there have to be 3 different factions who would want changes that aren't possible.

 

[dank69]

I don't feel good about this vote. The others had a ton of public outcry and resistance. This one, nothing at all. We've been hit by a couple hurricanes, there's a ton of other political noise going on. And everyone is sort of sleeping on this having been sent to bed. This one is much more sneaky and sinister. I'm not sure there's going to be enough no's to go around on the Republican side here.

Good. America gets what it deserves. Thanks Obama and Hillary!

 

[Jhhnn]

I have to say I find it unlikely they would come away from this unscathed, although I don't know how they come away unscathed at this point because they've spent eight years lying about health care and now the chickens have come home to roost. They appear to have two choices: 1) take health care away from tens of millions of people. 2) betray the campaign promises of the last decade. If they do #1, people will hate them for it. If they do #2 their base will feel betrayed. Neither one is good.

I think a lot of them think their best hope is to choose option #1 and then continue to lie about it, blaming whatever horrible outcomes happen on Obamacare instead of their own legislation. When you think about how plainly evil that decision is it's kind of shocking, but I think that's their plan.

It's one thing to rally the base on hatin' about Obamacare because they hate Obama & entirely another to do so now that Obama is gone. It was a conflation they can no longer maintain & the polls show it-

http://www.businessinsider.com/obam...pew-poll-shows-highest-popularity-ever-2017-2

Repeal is highly popular among their uber wealthy right wing donor base, however, because all they care about are tax cuts & deregulation. For them, health insurance is an incidental expense. The 3.8% surtax on income over $250K is serious money. The tax savings on the first $1M alone will easily pay for deluxe health insurance in my neck of the woods.

It's those same donors who started a civil war in the Party by promoting the Teahad, of course, so anybody not going along with the program can expect a primary challenge from the Right...

Couldn't happen to a nicer buncha guys...

 

[K1052]

Based upon the twitterings from Congressional reporters it looks like McCain is getting progressively more pissed off about how this is going down again. Probably not in the "yea" pocket yet.

 

[JEDI]

I don't feel good about this vote. The others had a ton of public outcry and resistance. This one, nothing at all. We've been hit by a couple hurricanes, there's a ton of other political noise going on. And everyone is sort of sleeping on this having been sent to bed. This one is much more sneaky and sinister. I'm not sure there's going to be enough no's to go around on the Republican side here.

why cant the dems filibuster this?
thought when McDonnell let the senate vote and failed, they couldn't try a reconciliation again for the year?

so if not a reconciliation type bill, then the dems can filibuster?

 

[Engineer]

why cant the dems filibuster this?
thought when McDonnell let the senate vote and failed, they couldn't try a reconciliation again for the year?

so if not a reconciliation type bill, then the dems can filibuster?

There is a time limit on reconciliation and it expires on September 30th. The Senate Parliamentarian set the date.

 

[LevelSea]

i++ time's a charm!

 

[Engineer]

CBO won't release full report until after deadline / vote. How convenient.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/cbo...-obamacare-repeal-after-passage-deadline.html

I thought that the CBO had to score it as non adding to the deficit before the Senate could vote on it?

 

[K1052]

CBO won't release full report until after deadline / vote. How convenient.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/cbo...-obamacare-repeal-after-passage-deadline.html

I thought that the CBO had to score it as non adding to the deficit before the Senate could vote on it?

The CBO can only issue a partial score because it takes more time to analyze the coverage/premium impacts....which the GOP say don't matter.

Under similar plans millions lost coverage an premiums rose substantially above current.

 

[Engineer]

The CBO can only issue a partial score because it takes more time to analyze the coverage/premium impacts....which the GOP say don't matter.

Under similar plans millions lost coverage an premiums rose substantially above current.

That's why it's 'how convenient' as I said above. I know full well that they want to pass this before the numbers come out on how many are losing coverage.

 

[K1052]

That's why it's 'how convenient' as I said above. I know full well that they want to pass this before the numbers come out on how many are losing coverage.

Gotta avoid those primary challenges no matter the cost...to their constituents.

 

[fskimospy]

why cant the dems filibuster this?
thought when McDonnell let the senate vote and failed, they couldn't try a reconciliation again for the year?

so if not a reconciliation type bill, then the dems can filibuster?

McCain voted down the motion to proceed, not the bill itself.

 

[fskimospy]

CBO won't release full report until after deadline / vote. How convenient.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/cbo...-obamacare-repeal-after-passage-deadline.html

I thought that the CBO had to score it as non adding to the deficit before the Senate could vote on it?

So again we now have a political party trying to remake 1/6th of the national economy without any indication of their bill's effects because they think the analysis of those effects will be so bad that no one will want to pass it. Whether or not it succeeds that is monstrous.

It also makes me laugh how many times conservatives tried to bring up that (false) Pelosi quote that Congress had to pass it to see what was in it. It's obvious now that conservatives never cared about that, and were more than willing to do exactly what they complained about as soon as they were able.

 

[K1052]

McCain voted down the motion to proceed, not the bill itself.

McCain was a yes on the MTP but later a no on the amendment to the bill (which really was the bill) that contained the "skinny repeal".

 

[Engineer]

McCain voted down the motion to proceed, not the bill itself.

McCain did vote down the 'skinny repeal' bill. He voted yes on the MTP.

Edit: K1052 beat me to it.

 

[Engineer]

So again we now have a political party trying to remake 1/6th of the national economy without any indication of their bill's effects because they think the analysis of those effects will be so bad that no one will want to pass it. Whether or not it succeeds that is monstrous.
.

They don't 'think'....they 'know'!

 

[fskimospy]

McCain was a yes on the MTP but later a no on the amendment to the bill (which really was the bill) that contained the "skinny repeal".

Ah yes, you're right. The important part is that no actual reconciliation bill was voted on though, which is why they can bring zombie Trumpcare back for another try.

 

[Puffnstuff]

This bill is lipstick on a pig and I believe that any reasonable person probably sees it that way. Their rush to push it through with minimal vetting demonstrates the level of desperation present at the GOP as they struggle to maintain their base ahead of midterms.

 

[Engineer]

Assuming Rand Paul pussies out as usual and McCain flips they have the votes to pass. The house would need to pass the same bill as is.

McCain will flip. The bullshit Homeland Security Committee hearing on healthcare as well as the Arizona governor coming out in favor of this will push McCain to the yes camp. I'm guessing that this things passes this time. GOP and T-Rump desperate to get this dung on the books.

 

[K1052]

Ryan, Trump Reject bipartisan insurance fixes

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/19/obamacare-stabilization-bill-status-242875

House Speaker Paul Ryan and the White House have informed Senate Republican leaders that they oppose a bipartisan plan to stabilize Obamacare being written in the Senate, according to Trump administration and congressional sources, in a clear bid to boost the Senate's prospects of repealing the health law.

After Senate Republicans failed to repeal Obamacare bill in July, talks began on fixing the law rather than dismantling it. The dose of cold water from senior GOP officials will put pressure on Republican senators to back a last-ditch bill to dismantle Obamacare before a Sept. 30 deadline. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell backed that approach publicly on Tuesday

Republicans say that while the bipartisan talks between Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) initially appeared promising, many in the GOP fear providing money for Obamacare but offering little for conservatives — especially after Republican lawmakers have been throttled by President Donald Trump and the GOP base for failing to repeal the health law.

This thing could kill the firstborn of every third family and these people would still vote for it just to fulfill a promise they never should have made.