Gore is going to win!!! Recount of 1% says he'll gain approx. 1900 votes

[SJ]

Optoman, hand recounts ONLY HAPPEN, if the canidate asks for one. Hand recounts are not mandated by Florida or ANY states law. The only recount mandated by law is a recount which Bush did win. Gore had the option to call for a hand recount. Friday 5pm, we will have "a" president elect. Hmmm I wonder if they will recount that 1% again when the recount the whole county, betcha they don't give the same numbers.

 

[Tripleshot]

Cybordolphin

Too bad you feel that way. Read the post above yours(optoman's).
When you become as inteligent as that person,maybe we could be proud to call you an american. Right now you sound just like a cry baby.


Just my opinion. I could be wrong. It's late and I'm too tired to argue.

 

[Shuxclams]

<< The only
recount mandated by law is a recount which Bush did win. >>



Again, the Election is NOT over until the 17th by Law. Unless you have the Official and Certified results of this Election then please refrian from claiming a victory that hasnt happend. The Gore camp is within the Law by requesting a manual count either statewide of in defined counties.


SHUX

 

[Format C:]

Anybody still young enough to be good at math? Makes my head hurt anymore.

Could somebody take this 19 vote figure and do the math to arrive at what the real expected outcome of the recount might could be based on this particular biased sample? The sample was 1% I think but it was taken in precincts where the Gore vs Bush margin was 9 to 1. Knowing that the vote margin wasn't that great county wide, and you can look that up cause I'm too lazy, what would the expected total be adjusted for that disparity? I know some of you can figure that out. I don't wanna have to wait.

And I know that absentee's and all that havn't been counted yet, yadda yadda yadda. I just would like to know the mathematically correct projection. I know that 1900 can in no way be anywhere close to accurate because the sample wasn't representative. Any Einstein's wanna tackle it?

 

[ride525]

Format C:

Where did you see/hear that the &quot;sample&quot; was in a 9-1 Gore area?

In Palm Beach, Gore got about 269,000 votes, Bush about 153,000.

 

[Steve Guilliot]

How can Gore be hijacking the election when everything he's done has been well within his rights? All of you Bushmen can hope that Al Gore will roll over and die, but it just sounds like crying now that potential defeat is in the air.

It's been said a million times, but here it is again: If Bush was narrowly behind because of possible counting errors, should Democrats ask for him to roll over and die? If not, then add that to the pile of hypocrisy that's been building up for the past week.

 

[Steve Guilliot]

A reprint from another thread:

The ratio of voters in these precincts has little to do with the votes gained by Gore. Even in this 9:1 county, if more Bush votes were originally miscounted, then Bush could gain and not Gore. The reverse is true as well, so in a conservative county, Gore could gain votes. Further, the more accurate totals could show a loss for a candidate, adding to the ambiguity.

With that said, 1% is a pretty small statistical sample. There is no way you can extrapolate that out to 1900 accurately.

 

[Cybordolphin]

I read the post above mine.

Gore and his supporters are the ONLY reason we are having a recount. Wake up. Certainly there are laws that outline this scenario. There are these same laws in most states. But you are naive to suggest these laws are not being put into effect as a direct result of GORE.

He could accept the BUSH win.... as he has in all the other states where Bush also won. Step down and accept his loss in Florida as well.

Friday is certainly not going to favor GORE. The votes from the overseas/military would still still put BUSH ahead. That is not me having a &quot;breakdown&quot;. This is the reality. The ONLY reason this election is not over..... is because GORE refuses to do the right thing.

The right thing for GORE to do is concede to BUSH. He will be forced to in time anyway. If the voting system is fair and works, and I believe it is..... it will go on to show, what it already has....
BUSH the winner.

I am not having a breakdown.... I am just angry..... as is the BUSH administration, and the rest of its supporters (you'll be hearing just how angry in the next few weeks.... I'm sure).

If there were any consequences to GORE's actions.... the rest of the public would be angry as well. And there may very well be just that before this is all over. You folks act like you are unaware that GORE can end this all right now. Please. He still can. He just wants to push it to a point that he can't. The point where it ends up in the courts.

I am not whining. I am irritated. You should be too.

 

[Format C:]

Had to have been on either MSNBC or CNN. I flipped between those two earlier today for about an hour and that was mentioned in one of the pieces about the re-count.

 

[Steve Guilliot]

If there were any consequences to GORE's actions.... the rest of the public would be angry as well. And there may very well be just that before this is all over. You folks act like you are unaware that GORE can end this all right now. Please. He still can. He just wants to push it to a point that he can't. The point where it ends up in the courts.\

News Flash: Most of the absentee ballots have already been counted.

Either candidate could win this, so it's also fair to say the Bush could end this anytime by conceding to Gore. Did you have a point?

 

[ride525]

Format C:

Been looking at CNN and MSNBC too....and searched...

Haven't found that sample was 9-1 Gore votes....

 

[Format C:]

I may have my facts and assumptions wrong here. (I'm old, its possible. ) I think I remember from the news that I watched today that the 1% sample was to be taken in 3 precincts in Palm Beach County. The fact that the 2 democrat supervisors chose those over the objections of the 1 republican was the subject of the story. I assume that the results of that particular re-count are what the 19 vote gain story is from. If that's not the case and this total represents a different count then somebody please educate me.

 

[ride525]

Format C:

I think facts in post directly above this are correct.

I just didn't find anything about the sample was 9-1 Gore territory. That would be a poor sample to choose..

 

[Cybordolphin]

Yes I have a point. Read it.

&quot;Most of the votes are in&quot;. You have said this yourself. &quot;BUSH has won thus far.&quot; &quot;The remaining votes will (very confident), show BUSH the winner.&quot; It is an historical fact that the votes still waiting to come in shall likely be in BUSH's favor (overseas/military ballots). Please don't argue this.

On Friday.... When BUSH win's, I can forsee &quot;GORE still will not accept this&quot;, and continue to create an unneccessary chain of events.

That is wrong. That is my point. Get it?

 

[Tripleshot]

Format C:

I think the 1900 figure is representitive. Then 19 vote increase you heard the commisioner say was a net total above Bush.The sample is 1% of all of Palm Beach County,Florida. If that trend continued,Gore would quite probably win. You have lost me on a 9:1 ratio. the vote sample was from a total of 4 pricincts. Now all precincts will be manually counted, pending the outcome of the &quot;I TRUST THE PEOPLE&quot; legal challenge in federal district court to block the will of the county. Give me a break. What precedence is there for the federal government to intervene in a state election and overturn state law and proceedure? Bush is really desperate and a real hypocrite,but only a select few on this board would dare acknowledge that.


Good night. My last post till tomorrow.

 

[Cybordolphin]

Triple....

I agree with you.

Now. Let's agree that this &quot;a manual recount in select pricincts... is fair or representative of what the people of America want&quot;.... is rediculous.

Then you can see where this is heading. In the wrong place.

 

[Slugbait]

It's the same old story here as in every other thread. Gore is being a sore loser, Bush is going to be overturned.

The big problem here kidz is that the voting process is flawed. No, I'm not talking butterfly ballots. I'm not talking about thrown out ballots. I'm not talking about a Jewish area becoming a Buchannan stronghold. I'm not talking about minorities being told the polls were already closed, or they only have a few minutes or they're out, and then bring in Jesse to argue. Let's not let the irregularities reported all over the place cloud the issue we should all truly be concerned about.

I'm talking about how a lead of over 1700 dwindled down to...what...less than 400 after the first recount? That doesn't require butterfly ballots to have such a discrepancy. How could it swing over 1300 votes?

That's pretty damn small when you're looking at tens of thousands of votes. Statistically, it's a low difference. Any county or district could blunder that bad. But at the dawn of the 21st century, don't you think we should be capable of reaching a 400 spread without a recount?

Just twenty days into the 21st century, we will inaugurate a new president. And he may be elected by recount in multiple states, if Gore surprisingly gets Florida and Bush decides to pull the same tactic in other close states. In the meantime, those of us down in the trenches can bicker all we want, saying our favorite is going to win like it was a fact of life, instead of being a game of chance like it truly is...which is exactly what this election has turned out to be.

You now have something to be passionate about. You have something to discuss at work with people you may seldom ever talk to. You're losing valuable UT cycles. Enjoy the ride. It ain't gonna happen again for another four years.

And when it does, expect the voting process to be a bit different in some areas. Expect more media coverage of what to expect at the voting booth. Maybe it will happen in yours. And expect the voting place to be a little more crowded, too.

 

[Cybordolphin]

Amen.

 

[SuperTool]

<< Gore is going to win!!! Recount of 1% says he'll gain approx. 1900 votes >>


If I had a dollar for every projection made in this election, maybe I wouldn't need a tax cut. Someone wake me up when this is over.

 

[Format C:]

Well said Slugbait.

To everyone else, I'm not going to argue with you over the 9 to 1 ratio. I know it was in the report that I heard because thats what caught my interest and I've been thinking about it the rest of the day wondering why such an unrepresentative sample would be chosen, but of course knowing the answer to that question. Politics. The same reason for everything else the country is being forced to endure.

My interest in the numbers is just that, interest in the numbers, because if its true that the sample was from precincts with a 9 to 1 ratio then the 1900 number that I'm sure every media pondit will be running with won't be anywhere near the true number when its all completed. I'd like to one-up 'em if you know what I mean. I'm figurin' but my head sure hurts. I'll let ya know if I come up with anything before brain melt.

 

[Format C:]

Okay, here's the figures that I've come up with and I know that there's much more info that should be filtered in and some of what I did input may not be correct but like I said its giving me a headache. The info that I've seen on total votes county wide showed a total of ~430,000 votes cast that were counted. Assuming that the 1% figure was 1% of that amount then the sample size would be ~4,300. That sample yielded a net gain of ~20 votes for Gore. The reported margin of Gore/Bush votes overall is ~1.8 to 1 advantage Gore. IF the sample was indeed taken in precincts with a margin of 9 to 1 then the 20 votes figure must be divided by a factor of ~5 to correct the skewed sampling yielding an adjusted net gain of ~4 votes. A 4 vote difference for a 1% sample extrapolated to the entire population would yield a net gain for Gore of ~400 votes.

Yes, I know that a 1% sample is not enough to base any statistical analysis on, but thats whats being done by the media so I'm doin' a &quot;me too&quot;. There is probably no way that the extrapolated figure of 1900 or mine of 400 will be anywhere near the actual outcome, but its going to be fun to see who comes closest. And yes, I know that all of this is pure speculation and based on one single report that may or may not be true and that any and all of my figures may be incorrect, but the excersize was fun while we wait, and wait, and wait, and wait...

 

[jimmygates]

WE CARES IF AL GORE ASKED FOR A HAND RECOUNT. LET HIM HAVE IT. IF YOUR SOO SURE THAT BUSH WILL WIN THEN YOU HAVE NOTHING TO BE WORRIED ABOUT RIGHT? ACTUALLY IF BUSH STILL WINS AFTER THE RECOUNT, IT WOULD MAKE HIM LOOK BETTER AND GOREA FOOL. SO QUIT UR BICKERING. IF YOU WERE TO LOSE BY A SLIGHT MARGIN AND THEN FOUND OUT THAT THERE WAS SOMETHING FISHY GOING ON, YOU WOULD WANT A RECOUNT TO.

DAMNIT WHY AM I YELLING...





-Jimbo

 

[Format C:]

Beats me, but there sure seems to be a lot of it goin' on 'round here lately.

 

[chess9]

The issue now is not whether Gore will have enough votes to overtake Bush. He will. The issue is whether Gore's winning counties will be able to certify results to the Secretary of State by the Tuesday 5 p.m. deadline. That is appearing less likely by the hour, and particularly for a big county like Dade. They may have to be satisfied with a partial manual recount and hope that carries the day.

Bush still has plenty of daylight, but this game is very tricky and the fat lady may not sing any time soon.

 

[PCAddict]

The recount is fine with me, as long as it isn't a Gore campaign delay tactic designed to take some/all of Florida's votes out of the equation. Remember, if Florida is unsettled by Decembmer 18th, then it's 25 electoral votes are NOT going to be cast in the electoral college.