Graphics card rumor roundup

CakeMonster

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Nov 22, 2012
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Will click the links when I have the time, but for anyone who needs/wants an upgrade right now, it seems pretty much clear that you should buy now. NV just released their cards and we know they will always milk those for 6 months at a MINIMUM. AMD has publicly stated that we won't see anything until sometime into 2015 IIRC.
 

KaRLiToS

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Jul 30, 2010
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2014 is the most boring year in GPU history. (Unless you believe that Maxwell 28nm or R9 290x with 8GB is interesting, cause I don't)

 

positivedoppler

Golden Member
Apr 30, 2012
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2014 is the most boring year in GPU history. (Unless you believe that Maxwell 28nm or R9 290x with 8GB is interesting, cause I don't)


yeah, 28 has been around for too long. Either a node shrink or 3d memory would be exciting. Actually regardless of what node, 1080p is getting old. Gimme 4k on a single card with reasonable power usage
 
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Sep 27, 2014
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yeah, 28 has been around for too long. Either a node shrink or 3d memory would be exciting. Actually regardless of what node, 1080p is getting old. Gimme 4k on a single card with reasonable power usage

GM200 may possibly be pretty amazing, 28nm or no... Based on the specs that were leaked. Its a brute force approach with a massive chip, but I don't really care about perf/watt, I want maximum performance and damn everything else.

I am still cautiously optimistic about HBM on AMD's side.

That said, the first company that gives me great 4k capability on a single card gets my business. Period.
 

KaRLiToS

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Jul 30, 2010
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GM200 may possibly be pretty amazing, 28nm or no... Based on the specs that were leaked. Its a brute force approach with a massive chip, but I don't really care about perf/watt, I want maximum performance and damn everything else.

Maybe brute force, but the rumors of the size of it indicate 600-650mm2. It will heat up. No?


That said, the first company that gives me great 4k capability on a single card gets my business. Period.

For 60fps Ultra, not until 2016 in my opinion.
 

tviceman

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Mar 25, 2008
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2014 is the most boring year in GPU history. (Unless you believe that Maxwell 28nm or R9 290x with 8GB is interesting, cause I don't)


Boring from a flat out performance improvement? Yes. But it's anything but in all other respects. Innovation reigned supreme in the face of technological stagnation and cost barriers. GM204 destroyed Tahiti in performance (55-60%) at lower power consumption, lower memory bandwidth, and only a 13% increase in power consumption. GM204 also beats the two bigger chips in all the same metrics with a noticeably smaller die size. On top of all that, GM204 has incredible overclocking headroom which actually expands on it's lead over the Hawaii and GK110.

It's a taste of what is to come with finfets.
 

KaRLiToS

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Jul 30, 2010
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Boring from a flat out performance improvement? Yes. But it's anything but in all other respects. Innovation reigned supreme in the face of technological stagnation and cost barriers. GM204 destroyed Tahiti in performance (55-60%) at lower power consumption, lower memory bandwidth, and only a 13% increase in power consumption. GM204 also beats the two bigger chips in all the same metrics with a noticeably smaller die size. On top of all that, GM204 has incredible overclocking headroom which actually expands on it's lead over the Hawaii and GK110.

It's a taste of what is to come with finfets.

Sorry but efficiency doesn't interest me much. GM204 impresses you, not me. GM200 is a whole other story though, but won't happen in 2014.
 

f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
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H2 2015 slip-up for R9 390/X (according to latest seemingly credible info) leaves plenty of time for Nvidia to milk the GM204 (or to savor the moment as Jensen said).

But when it does arrive it should get roughly 20-25% (30% ideally and unrealistically as per TSMC) boost from the 20nm process AND?? The big unknown is how much gains from new arch.
I wouldn't expect much due to still being GCN 1.2 or was it GCN 1.3

Predicting perf for Nvidia's 28nm big Maxwell should be much easier - roughly +30% from combined higher TDP and more CC. That is how much TDP room they have (170W -> 250W)
 

exar333

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2004
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Sorry but efficiency doesn't interest me much. GM204 impresses you, not me. GM200 is a whole other story though, but won't happen in 2014.

It really should interest you. A lot.

When there is essentially a 'cap' on how much power can be sent to a single GPU and the input to that equation is a function of xtors and efficiency, it determines max performance levels.

Assume 2014 efficiency gains never happened and we moved right to 20nm, we would be sitting on 20nm with our current '3rd gen 28nm' performance, most likely.

I am disappointed too in the slowing of node changes, but I am VERY excited for 20nm based on all the great work that we have seen on 28nm. We need a LOT more single-GPU performance to make >1440P gaming viable. We should see some really nice options when 20nm hits.
 

Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
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Will click the links when I have the time, but for anyone who needs/wants an upgrade right now, it seems pretty much clear that you should buy now. NV just released their cards and we know they will always milk those for 6 months at a MINIMUM. AMD has publicly stated that we won't see anything until sometime into 2015 IIRC.

I disagree. GM200 in all likelihood will cohabit with GM204. How soon we get it depends on AMD launching their next gen with those Fiji cards. If AMD takes a while, nvidia will try and milk the GM204 as long as possible. If AMD gets it out soon we'll likely see GM200 not long after.

They need to get on with it, GTX 980 was a letdown unless you didn't already have a 780ti, 290X or Titan and were waiting on a more affordable flagship.
 

tviceman

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Mar 25, 2008
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Sorry but efficiency doesn't interest me much. GM204 impresses you, not me. GM200 is a whole other story though, but won't happen in 2014.

That's pretty much like saying "knowing about money doesn't interest me much, I just want to be a rich."

The single largest and most determinant factor in every video card is TDP. There will never be a single-GPU that will have a noticeably larger TDP than Hawaii ever again. Hawaii is pretty much the limit. TDP will determine how much performance you're getting out of each tier of cards from both Nvidia and AMD. And if AMD can't compete with Nvidia in maxwell's performance/watt, then - just like your view on efficiency - their cards will no longer interest you either unless you want to stick with bargain shopping.

Anyways, GM200 is coming on 28nm. I think that is all-but proven. It won't have massively larger specs vs. GM204 when compared to GK110 vs. GK104, but it will have the distinct advantage at being able to run at higher clock speeds than GK110 it won't be as TDP (aka efficiency) limited as GK110 was. Fully unlocked GM200 should be 25-30% faster than GM204.
 
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RussianSensation

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Sep 5, 2003
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Boring from a flat out performance improvement? Yes. But it's anything but in all other respects. Innovation reigned supreme in the face of technological stagnation and cost barriers. GM204 destroyed Tahiti in performance (55-60%) at lower power consumption, lower memory bandwidth, and only a 13% increase in power consumption. GM204 also beats the two bigger chips in all the same metrics with a noticeably smaller die size. On top of all that, GM204 has incredible overclocking headroom which actually expands on it's lead over the Hawaii and GK110.

It's a taste of what is to come with finfets.

It has failed from absolute performance given the timeframe, relative performance jump vs. previous 780Ti/290X, and on price/performance - so all 3 most valuable metrics for 20 years of desktop GPUs until performance/watt marketing took over. 980 is basically a 6600GT/460 1GB, nowhere near worthy the x80 designation, far worse than 580--> 680.

In your comparison to Tahiti, You literally ignored one the most important aspects -- Time. GM204 may be faster than Tahiti, but since it's been 3 years since Tahiti came out and GPUs at least double every 3 years (already way off historical 2x faster every 2 years), GM204 badly misses the mark as "Tahiti's" 3-year successor if you want to look at it that way. It's not NV's fault high performance 20nm node is dead or alive, don't get me wrong, but strictly as both a 3 year newer GPU and as an x80 series part bringing just 7-10% more performance over 780Ti, 980 is way off the mark. A $550 card 3 years after Tahiti launched should be at least 2X faster stock:

http://www.computerbase.de/2013-12/grafikkarten-2013-vergleich/10/

Secondly, it happens to be the most overpriced x80 part relative to x70 part in probably a decade, maybe ever, actually more than twice as expensive in terms of $ spent for every 1% gained over the x70 part compared to say 470 vs. 480.

Thirdly, it changes very little in terms of moving 4K performance over 1 year old 290X/780Ti. If it wasn't for 970's great price/performance at launch, GM204 on the desktop would be a major failure in terms of GPU history. Now, I have doubts that even 390X will double Tahiti's performance but honestly I expect nothing less given the timeframe. If not, GM200 will do it :biggrin:

NV is just doing an exact repeat of 680-->780Ti, bifurcating the generation into 2, maybe even 3 parts (possible shrink of GM200 in 2016). If AMD doesn't launch 390X as a 520mm2 28nm part or a 20nm part, I have little hope for that card either.

At the end I guess it comes down to the games. PC software in 2014 has been way more disappointing from a technical perspective in pushing the PC than I imagined. I expected next gen PC games to start trickling but besides Ryse Son of Rome, none lived up to the hype so far from a graphical/technical point of view. Maybe Dragon Age Inquisition can still surprise. I have little hope that AC Unity or FC4 will change my opinion. Watch Dogs failed.

Unless 4K IPS monitors drop in price a lot more or there will be more games like Witcher 3 and Project CARS pushing the PC envelope, we might be in a serious drought of technical advancement until BF5.

Also, based on NV's bifurcating of a GPU generation, I am putting flagship GP200 Pascal at Q1 2017 at best even though NV has penciled Pascal for 2016. That will probably be low end 750Ti style card and mid-range GP204 parts.
 
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KaRLiToS

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Jul 30, 2010
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Why people are trying to convince me that 2014 was an exciting year for GPUs? To me it was not, okay? Looks like you are convincing yourself that GM204 was the revolutionary GPU of the decade.

Even if we were able to save 10$ in power saving for the year, I don't freakin care.


That's pretty much like saying "knowing about money doesn't interest me much, I just want to be a rich."

The single largest and most determinant factor in every video card is TDP. There will never be a single-GPU that will have a noticeably larger TDP than Hawaii ever again. Hawaii is pretty much the limit. TDP will determine how much performance you're getting out of each tier of cards from both Nvidia and AMD. And if AMD can't compete with Nvidia in maxwell's performance/watt, then - just like your view on efficiency - their cards will no longer interest you either unless you want to stick with bargain shopping.

Anyways, GM200 is coming on 28nm. I think that is all-but proven. It won't have massively larger specs vs. GM204 when compared to GK110 vs. GK104, but it will have the distinct advantage at being able to run at higher clock speeds than GK110 it won't be as TDP (aka efficiency) limited as GK110 was. Fully unlocked GM200 should be 25-30% faster than GM204.


Why are you turning this into a AMD vs Nvidia thread? :thumbsdown::thumbsdown:

I'm not falling into this. I'm out.
 
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exar333

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2004
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Why people are trying to convince me that 2014 was an exciting year for GPUs? To me it was not, okay? Looks like you are convincing yourself that GM204 was the revolutionary GPU of the decade.

Even if we were able to save 10$ in power saving for the year, I don't freakin care.





Why are you turning this into a AMD vs Nvidia thread? :thumbsdown::thumbsdown:

I'm not falling into this. I'm out.

2014 might not be exciting, but (hopefully) it sets the stage for an exciting 2015.

GPUs are a lot like recent server CPU SKUs. The more efficient the architecture gets, the more 'cores' you can fit on the same package. We see that with Haswell Xeons, for example, where we now have 18C/36T parts. That was unheard of a few years back.

Hopefully the arch tweaks and everything from 28nm will help feed some nice gains moving into 2nm and beyond. As other have stated, we really need 1-2 more 33-50% generational gains to really get 4K gaming where it needs to be.
 
Sep 27, 2014
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Hopefully the arch tweaks and everything from 28nm will help feed some nice gains moving into 2nm and beyond. As other have stated, we really need 1-2 more 33-50% generational gains to really get 4K gaming where it needs to be.

After seeing how a moderately OCed 980 performs at 4k, I would say that GM200 may just be it, provided it delivers on the 30-50% boost its supposedly capable of.

I would love AMD to hurry up and get its next gen cards out to promote some competition. When either company stagnates it always means a bad few months for consumers.
 
Sep 27, 2014
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Supposed GM200 specs and benches leak: http://wccftech.com/alleged-gtx-titan-x-specs-benchmarks-leak-sisoft-sandra/

"If the benchmark is truly of the next Maxwell Flagship, then we are looking at a CUDA Core count of 3072 in 24 SMMs. Since there are 24 Streaming Maxwell Processors and each SMM has 8 TMUs to it, I can further deduce that this card has 192 TMUs. You can expect 96 ROPs to go along with it. A slightly odd number, but nothing to really set alarm bells ringing. It features 3MB of L2 cache, 384 bit bus width and perhaps most surprisingly, 12GB vRam coupled with a low 6GHZ frequency. As forum members have pointed out, this is usually indicative of a professional GPU."
 

III-V

Senior member
Oct 12, 2014
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It has failed from absolute performance given the timeframe, relative performance jump vs. previous 780Ti/290X, and on price/performance - so all 3 most valuable metrics for 20 years of desktop GPUs until performance/watt marketing took over. 980 is basically a 6600GT/460 1GB, nowhere near worthy the x80 designation, far worse than 580--> 680.
The good news is that when Nvidia finally moves past 28nm, they've already made more than your typical generation's worth of architectutal improvements, so we'll just be getting the process improvements at a later date. AMD on the other hand hasn't really moved anywhere, and they're fortunate enough to have time to react to Maxwell.

I think your outlook on Pascal is rather pessimistic, though. Stacked memory benefits high end cards the most, so I don't see Nvidia launching with a "x50 class" card first.
Supposed GM200 specs and benches leak: http://wccftech.com/alleged-gtx-titan-x-specs-benchmarks-leak-sisoft-sandra/

"If the benchmark is truly of the next Maxwell Flagship, then we are looking at a CUDA Core count of 3072 in 24 SMMs. Since there are 24 Streaming Maxwell Processors and each SMM has 8 TMUs to it, I can further deduce that this card has 192 TMUs. You can expect 96 ROPs to go along with it. A slightly odd number, but nothing to really set alarm bells ringing. It features 3MB of L2 cache, 384 bit bus width and perhaps most surprisingly, 12GB vRam coupled with a low 6GHZ frequency. As forum members have pointed out, this is usually indicative of a professional GPU."
I'm really not that excited for GM200, outside of the role it will play as a price negotiator. I'll probably be picking up a GM204 based card, along with a 2560xY panel. Or maybe a 4k panel, if the prices are right. Although if I go the 4k route, I'd probably want GM200...
 
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UaVaj

Golden Member
Nov 16, 2012
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2014 gpu is boring because neither - quad 290x nor quad 980 - is unable to deliver - 60fps minimum at 7680x1440 at ultra preset.

2015 gpu excitement will happen when either - quad gm204 or quad Fiji - can do so. :biggrin:
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
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Tviceman, I think your estimate that flagship Maxwell will only be 25-30% faster than 980 is wayyy too conservative. NV has a lot of headroom to play with 250-275W power usage that 780Ti hit. There is no reason they couldn't theoretically push GM200 to that power usage. By the time this card launches, 28nm will be even more mature. GM200 may be Maxwell 3.0 with slightly higher IPC (v1 had 35%, v2 is 40% over Kepler). I think it will be around 50% faster than a 980, maybe more. 980 reference uses less power than 680 reference so that means Big Maxwell has at least the same headroom from 980 as 780Ti had over 680!

Also, look at 6970--> 290X. In 3 years AMD increased performance 2.3X and NV did nearly as well with 2-2.1X faster over 580 with 780Ti.

Since 980 is 20% faster than 290X, if GM200 is only 30% faster than 980, it will only be 56% faster than 290X and nowhere near 80-100% faster than 780Ti. I would imagine by the end of Maxwell/AMD's generation before the next gen wave of 14/16nm FinFET GPU architectures (Pascal, etc.), we will have flagship GPUs 75-100% faster than 290X/780Ti from both AMD and NV because 290X/780Ti will be 3 years old by November/Dec 2016. 75% over 290X by that time is crazy low-balling. I am thinking 2-2.3X faster is even realistic. Therefore your estimate that the fastest GM200/210 will get this generation over 980 is 25-30% sounds way too pessimistic. NV can still shrink Maxwell to net another 20-30% more performance towards the 2nd half of the Maxwell generation.

Who knows as this is all just speculation but I honestly believe Big Maxwell will be more than 30% faster than 980 or it will be the smallest generational jump from NV ever vs. last gen flagship.
 
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CakeMonster

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Nov 22, 2012
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NV has a lot of headroom to play with 250-275W power usage that 780Ti hit. There is no reason they couldn't theoretically push GM200 to that power usage. By the time this card launches, 28nm will be even more mature. GM200 may be Maxwell 3.0 with slightly higher IPC (v1 had 35%, v2 is 40% over Kepler). I think it will be around 50% faster than a 980, maybe more. 980 reference uses less power than 680 reference so that means Big Maxwell has at least the same headroom from 980 as 780Ti had over 680!

Forgive my ignorance in advance, you know a lot more about this than me and I generally agree with 80-90% of what you write there. But I'm having problems following the part above.

The 780Ti took a lot of time to arrive after the 680, the process did have to be tweaked to make the 780Ti possible and profitable. The 780Ti was not just sitting there from Feb 2012 while they were milking the market.

And this late in the 28nm process you'd expect the necessary tweaks for a similar improvement to be achieved a lot slower than early in the 28nm process. You can't just magically improve 28nm at the same rate as when it was brand new.
 

f1sherman

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Apr 5, 2011
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It would be 50% faster than GM204, if GM200 had roughly 50% die space to grow on. Bit it doesn't.
Because 550mm2 is realistically a maximum.

So since GM200 can't physically afford +50% execution units, it will achieve its performance goal by trading some of its perf/W for increased clocks.
So yeah +30% over 980 sounds reasonable
 

f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
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Or you can look at it this way:

Being unable to deliver +50% CC over 980, increased clocks are a must.
(they have only 150mm2 to play with)
And you have to lose some of perf/W in doing so.
 

Actaeon

Diamond Member
Dec 28, 2000
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Best part and most exciting part about GPUs in 2014 was the Maxwell release.

Not because of Maxwell itself, but because of the crazy price drops and game bundles AMD has done for the 290s and 290Xs.

Top tier GPU performance that is a $1k Titan slayer and priced at $600+ just 6 months ago is now $250-300 and includes $150~ worth of free games. Awesome.
 

tviceman

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It has failed from absolute performance given the timeframe, relative performance jump vs. previous 780Ti/290X, and on price/performance - so all 3 most valuable metrics for 20 years of desktop GPUs until performance/watt marketing took over. 980 is basically a 6600GT/460 1GB, nowhere near worthy the x80 designation, far worse than 580--> 680.

In your comparison to Tahiti, You literally ignored one the most important aspects -- Time. GM204 may be faster than Tahiti, but since it's been 3 years since Tahiti came out and GPUs at least double every 3 years (already way off historical 2x faster every 2 years), GM204 badly misses the mark as "Tahiti's" 3-year successor if you want to look at it that way. It's not NV's fault high performance 20nm node is dead or alive, don't get me wrong, but strictly as both a 3 year newer GPU and as an x80 series part bringing just 7-10% more performance over 780Ti, 980 is way off the mark. A $550 card 3 years after Tahiti launched should be at least 2X faster stock:

Russian you are throwing everything regarding today's reality out of the window. GPU's double in performance because NODES. We are still on the same node. GM204 is built on the same exact node as Tahiti, and obliterates it. Destroys it. In every way possible. GM204 is built on the same node as GK110 and Hawaii, and destroy those cards in all metrics. No question, no contest. And it's on the same node.

Everyone is stuck on 28nm. We aren't getting double performance on the same node. It isn't happening. It's not Nvidia's fault they can't defy the laws of physics. Nvidia is doing more given their situation than AMD. Case in point, there was a shorter time frame between Tahiti and Tonga than there was between GK104 and GM204. Tonga offered NOTHING over Tahiti unless you are frothing for Mantle and true audio. GM204 offered EVERYTHING over GK104 and also took out the bigger, more power hungry chips (GK110, Hawaii) being built along side it. But I get it. You don't care. You're not impressed. You want a $250 Titan Black killer. You want everyone to ignore reality. I get it. Keep waiting. Let me know how impressed you are when Fiji comes on 20nm and can only beat the craptastic GM204 by 20%.
 
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