No, it's not possible. After some austerity got you from a recession to a depression, more austerity is not going to take you from depression to prosperity.
Is it possible that if Greece had enacted the reforms they promised to it would've been revenue neutral? We'll never know now. It's inconsequential, Greece is not going to make the reforms and the rest of the EZ isn't going to prop them up.
And when you sign a contract and don't fulfill your terms, don't be surprised or angry when the other parties won't sign any more contracts with you.
I agree BTW that the EZ deserves to lose their money for not doing their due diligence. Greece can make them swallow that loss right now by leaving.
No, it's not possible. After some austerity got you from a recession to a depression, more austerity is not going to take you from depression to prosperity.
No one gives a shit what you want. Borrowers have the terms dictated to them by the people who have the money or default, not the other way around. Pay your fucking debts off and you can screw up your economy however you want with your own money. You are not the Germans' charity case.
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Top 10 Greek Imports from Germany 2014
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Germany's exports to Greece amounted to
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$6.1 billion or 9.9% of its overall imports.
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 1. Pharmaceuticals: $946.6 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 2. Vehicles: $661.3 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 3. Machines, engines, pumps: $601.2 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 4. Electronic equipment: $526.2 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 5. Dairy, eggs, honey: $364 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 6. Plastics: $297.5 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 7. Medical, technical equipment: $218.8 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 8. Meat: $173.9 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 9. Organic chemicals: $166.2 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10. Other chemical goods: $153 million[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Top 10 Greek Imports from Netherlands 2014
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Dutch exports to Greece amounted to
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$3 billion or 4.8% of its overall imports.
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 1. Meat: $395.5 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 2. Machines, engines, pumps: $325.7 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 3. Pharmaceuticals: $282 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 4. Dairy, eggs, honey: $238.3 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 5. Electronic equipment: $235.9 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 6. Oil: $193.1 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 7. Plastics: $99.2 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 8. Medical, technical equipment: $98.7 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 9. Organic chemicals: $97.5 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10. Cereal, milk preparations: $63.1 million[/FONT]
We're beyond the point of concern about writing down the debt, that's already baked into the cake and nobody including the Greeks pretend they'll get repaid. The only real question is whether the creditors will continue to add yet more money to the delinquent account which will also need to be written down in turn. As someone said earlier, recognize a 200B loss now or continue to bail out at 50B at regular intervals that add to the 200B already sunk cost. At some point you'll get to where the debt service alone on the ever increasing principal is greater than the principal you would have written off at an earlier stage of the game.
Ok if nobody gives a shit lets stop all imports from northern EU, we can import more from Italy, Spain, Portugal, China, India, Russia etc et. Also other southern EU countries could do the same. Im sure they will not give a shit about that.
I'm sure they'll forgo $6.1 billion in export revenues (which is considerably less once you account for it properly strictly as net income that revenue generates) to not lose €50B on an ongoing basis. That $6.1B is German money to begin with so the mere fact they're getting some back is beside the point.
How about Spain ???[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Germany's exports to Italy amounted to
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$72.6 billion or 15.4% of its overall imports.
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 1. Vehicles: $11 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 2. Machines, engines, pumps: $10.6 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 3. Electronic equipment: $6.5 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 4. Plastics: $5.4 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 5. Medical, technical equipment: $3 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 6. Iron and steel: $2.8 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 7. Pharmaceuticals: $2.8 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 8. Organic chemicals: $2.4 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 9. Oil: $2.2 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10. Dairy, eggs, honey: $2 billion[/FONT]
And Portugal ??[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Germany's exports to Spain amounted to
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$42.4 billion or 12.1% of its overall imports.
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 1. Vehicles: $11.9 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 2. Machines, engines, pumps: $6.4 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 3. Electronic equipment: $3.1 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 4. Pharmaceuticals: $2.1 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 5. Plastics: $2.1 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 6. Medical, technical equipment: $1.5 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 7. Organic chemicals: $1.5 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 8. Iron and steel: $1.3 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 9. Other chemical goods: $942.7 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10. Rubber: $776.5 million[/FONT]
Do you want to play that game because of puny Greece ?? Europe its about the people first, Its about supporting one each-other in good times and bad times. I haven't seen the German people object in exporting 6-7Bn Euros to Greece before the crisis. Did Greece had higher pensions then than now ??[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Germany's exports to Portugal amounted to
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$9.6 billion or 12.4% of its overall imports.
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 1. Vehicles: $2.6 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 2. Machines, engines, pumps: $1.3 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 3. Electronic equipment: $1.2 billion
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 4. Pharmaceuticals: $568.2 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 5. Plastics: $518.2 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 6. Other chemical goods: $373.6 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 7. Oil: $250.5 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 8. Medical, technical equipment: $237.6 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 9. Iron and steel: $167.5 million
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10. Tanning, dyeing extracts: $152.6 million[/FONT]
So you agreeing they will not give a shit about having ZERO exports to Greece starting tomorrow.
What about if Italy decides to do the same ??
http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-italy-imports.html
How about Spain ???
And Portugal ??
Do you want to play that game because of puny Greece ?? Europe its about the people first, Its about supporting one each-other in good times and bad times. I haven't seen the German people object in exporting 6-7Bn Euros to Greece before the crisis. Did Greece had higher pensions then than now ??
If you want to have an economic war within the EZ, then Greece has less to loose than other Northern Countries. We support the EU and EZ, we support the Euro as currency but dont give me the crap about nobody gives a shit about what we want. There are other threes to gather currency, EU or IMF is not the only institutions that have money on the planet you know.
ps: I dont have anything against Germany and Germans, i respect them and their country. But they should respect the other EU countries as well.
So "respecting" you means they should just give you money without end or realistic hope of repayment? How about your just own up to your deadbeat status instead and stop trying to fuck over the taxpayers of other nations.
Also, what money we get from Germany and the other European countries are loans not charity. We will have to repay them at some time.
So stop this fucking the other nations taxpayers, Germany and other EU countries lending us money they will get back WITH INTEREST.
Private investors hold 38.7 billion euros of Greek government bonds following a major write-down and debt swap in 2012 that reduced the Greek debt stock by 107 billion euros and the value of private holdings by an estimated 75 percent.
IMF - Greece was promised a total of 48.1 billion euros by the IMF, of which 16.3 billion was still to come by March 2016 if Athens successfully completed the second economic adjustment program. It had serviced and repaid loans on time up to this month, when it used an obscure IMF provision to bundle together four payments totaling 1.6 billion euros for payment by the end of June. The older IMF loans carry an interest rate of 3.5 percent, higher than the euro zone rescue fund charges.
THE EURO ZONE - Euro zone governments gave Greece 52.9 billion euros in bilateral loans under the first bailout agreed in 2010, known as the Greek Loan Facility. Under the second bailout agreed in 2012Athens has so far received 141.8 billion euros from the euro zone's financial rescue fund. It had been due a further 1.8 billion euros by June 30 if it met conditions but barring major surprises that is off the table.
Of the biggest euro zone members, Germany's exposure for the two bailouts totals 57.23 billion euros,France's is 42.98 billion, Italy's is 37.76 billion and Spain's 25.1 billion. That is in addition to their contributions to the IMF loans, commensurate with their respective quotas in the global lender.
Euro zone countries have already extended the maturities of their loans to Greece from 15 to 30 years and reduced the interest rates on some to just 0.5 basis points above their borrowing cost. They also granted Greece a 10-year moratorium on interest payments on the second bailout loan from the euro zone rescue fund.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33382046
Yes, still living high on the hog with their 40% pension cuts
Compared to poorer EU nations which also have been bailed out and have made much more bare bones cuts, i.e. Latvia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Lithuania etc, yes the Greeks are doing well pension wise. In the end it doesn't matter because pensions are going to be hit hard in Greece whether they finally see reason and accept the new terms being offered or they decided to leave/are kicked out and then they re-issue their drachma currency which will have the purchasing power close to or approaching toilet paper.
Lol, 30 years to pay it back, .5 basis points above their own borrowing costs, and 10-year moratorium on interest and you still don't pay! What's in this for the EZ?
1. Pharmaceuticals: $946.6 million
So does Bayer have their own game of corporate conwork going on with business in the Southern European countries?
Are there generic drugs available in the EU or are they illegal like what they want to do in America?
This.Long term, the issue is that Germany is in a currency peg with weaker southern European economies. Just like other countries (Japan, China, SK, etc) artificially weakening their currency to peg it to their export destinations, Germany will have to pay for that peg, one way or another, or the peg (Euro in this case) will fail.
Greece just demonstrates that Euro is not sustainable long term, because member countries can not be relied on to maintain it.
You'd think so but it always seems like the Germans that are holding back the ECB from printing more money. I'm not sure how much they care about having a weak Euro. After all, it does make imports more expensive even as it makes their products more competitive internationally.This.
The "poor old Germany." shtick is getting old.
Germany is doing extremely well out of having financially 'weaker' nations in a currency union with them.
B. Fiscal policy outcomes
23. A large reduction in the fiscal deficit was achieved. The change in the primary deficit during 2010–11 was 8 percentage points of GDP, slightly above target, despite the deep recession. The authorities introduced additional measures in 2011 (Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy, amounting to 10½ percent of GDP during 2011–14) once it became clear that the initial set of fiscal measures was insufficient to deliver the consolidation target. In cyclically-adjusted terms, the primary balance improved by about 13 percent of potential GDP during the SBA.
They knew the problem was austerity for at least 2 years, and they continued with the program as if they learned nothing.Financing constraints implied limits on the flexibility of targets, but this had led to a vicious circle whereby the deeper the recession, the greater the need for measures, and the deeper the recession.
Slightly off topic. Why are non Greeks and Euro zone people so passionate about Greece?
I know there are market dangers however it seems like the market was expecting Greece to default. The US market has barely reacted to the turmoil.
I'm not sure about this number but I think that US exports to the EU make up between 1 and 2% of US GDP. So it doesn't have that much of an impact here. Whereas the EU I think is a major export destination for China. Although IDK how much of an effect that's had on the recent collapse in Chinese stocks.Slightly off topic. Why are non Greeks and Euro zone people so passionate about Greece?
I know there are market dangers however it seems like the market was expecting Greece to default. The US market has barely reacted to the turmoil.
Slightly off topic. Why are non Greeks and Euro zone people so passionate about Greece?
I know there are market dangers however it seems like the market was expecting Greece to default. The US market has barely reacted to the turmoil.
Is it an opportunity to show austerity doesn't work so well and an example of a spend more than you can pay government causing the endless bickering?