..using obama logic won't importing more poverty and crime in to Greece under the guise of "immigration" solve the problem??
Perhaps those accepting Greek immigrants will realize why we don't really need our own latin illegal invasion? Let them stay there and figure their own country out. I see nothing that makes Greeks special over Africans.
Using your logic my dog is a toaster because it likes to smell socks...using obama logic won't importing more poverty and crime in to Greece under the guise of "immigration" solve the problem??
Using your logic my dog is a toaster because it likes to smell socks.
I've been using your toaster for a few weeks now, and I have to say, not only does the toast take hours to come out after the bread is inserted, but it tastes awful.
No one is arguing that Greece will ever pay its debts in full. (Well, except the occasional Greek.) They are arguing over whether Greece will be allowed to take on new debts which will also never be paid in full.Not really. I'm saying their program has pretty obviously failed so we should try something else. There are plenty of economists who agree. Hell, even the IMF at this point has come out and said that Greek debt will need to be written down.
None of that changes all the ridiculous shit you said earlier that was either totally stupid or dishonest.
Yes, let's.People who think that the problem is Greece didn't cut enough, read the IMF's 2013 review:
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13156.pdf
They knew the problem was austerity for at least 2 years, and they continued with the program as if they learned nothing.
3. Fiscal policy was pro-cyclical. Some argue that Greece was the country that gained most from euro adoption (Fernandez-Villaverde et al, 2013) with borrowing costs falling sharply. As a direct fiscal dividend, government interest expenditure dropped from 11½ percent of GDP in the mid-1990s to 5 percent of GDP in the mid-2000s. However, these savings were more than swallowed up by increased spending on wages and pensions. The economy turned down in the wake of the Lehman crisis and the general government deficit reached 15½ percent of GDP (after incorporating data revisions), up from 4 percent of GDP in 2001. Public debt was 129 percent of GDP at end-2009, with 75 percent held by foreigners. There were also significant contingent liabilities due to public enterprises borrowing under state guarantee, while the pension system had become underfunded as a result of increasingly generous entitlements and an aging population.
If one looks at the tables, Greek wages and public welfare program spending both increased much faster than the EU average, and that average includes countries which are fiscally sound.26. About half of the adjustment in the primary deficit reflected lower spending. As a result of the expenditure measures undertaken during the SBA-supported program, primary expenditure declined by 4 percentage points of GDP in 200911, but still exceeded the 2005 level by about the same amount. Moreover, the wage bill remained high compared with other EU countries; programs for social protection remained largely untargeted and inefficient (OECD, forthcoming); and health care reform had yet to be completed.
27. Fiscal consolidation proceeded, but momentum on fiscal structural reforms flagged. Measures taken contributed to strong upfront consolidation (wage and pension cuts, VAT hikes) and to improved long-term sustainability (pension reform). A far-reaching pension reform was approved by Parliament in July 2010 that was designed to substantially contain increases in pension benefits over the long run (see Box 3). Fund TA also led to improvements in expenditure and commitment controls and to better fiscal reporting and budgeting practices. However, tax administration reforms encountered setbacks due to political resistance and capacity constraints. Although TA led to improvements in on-time VAT filing, there were few signs by the end of the SBA-supported program that collection efficiency was being improved on a permanent basis (see Box 4).
A core plank of progressive policy is that nations can borrow more money every year, forever, without adverse effects. Another core plank of progressive policy is that austerity (meaning spending less than last year, even if last year was an exceptional event, is always ruinous. Thus Greece threatens two key progressive beliefs. For these not to fall, Greece must be loaned more money, and we must pretend not to notice when that money is not paid back. This is why when conservatives say no one is willing to loan Greece more money without major systemic reforms, progressives only answer that Greece must be loaned more money.Slightly off topic. Why are non Greeks and Euro zone people so passionate about Greece?
I know there are market dangers however it seems like the market was expecting Greece to default. The US market has barely reacted to the turmoil.
Is it an opportunity to show austerity doesn't work so well and an example of a spend more than you can pay government causing the endless bickering?
Of course. Those of us without any vested interest in the borrow forever scheme are perfectly happy if Greece wants to spend 200% of GDP every year. We are also perfectly happy if someone wishes to loan Greece the money to do this. We are simply saying that it's stupid to do so.The EZ asked for more than just budget measures, but I guess those don't count?
Anyway, as I said to AtenRa, Greece can end austerity right now if they want to.
No one is arguing that Greece will ever pay its debts in full. (Well, except the occasional Greek.)
Greeces debt is mainly held by eurozone governments, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund. The ECB has repeatedly ruled out restructuring the Greek debt it holds.
Only 17% of Greek debt is owned by private investors. 62% is owned by other EU govts.Umm, they are arguing over exactly that. The creditors have repeatedly refused to put debt restructuring on the table, even after IMF admitted Greek debt is unsustainable. They still expect to be paid in full.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/greeces-debt-to-ecb-cant-be-restructured-says-eu-official-1436174595
Refusing to restructure the loans isn't belief that they are going to be repaid, it's belief that changing the terms will not help. The problem is Greece's underlying economic structure, and allowing Greece to pile on more debt without substantially changing this underlying economic structure simply increases the size of the default.Umm, they are arguing over exactly that. The creditors have repeatedly refused to put debt restructuring on the table, even after IMF admitted Greek debt is unsustainable. They still expect to be paid in full.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/greeces-debt-to-ecb-cant-be-restructured-says-eu-official-1436174595
This is still the best post of the thread.I think the rest of Europe is frankly tired of hearing about the "pain" of austerity. Austerity is such a subjective term to begin with. Is having to pay your taxes and not retire at 50 considers austerity? If so, what is so painful about it? Is having to actually be competitive and create a functional economy (not one based on debt and false promises with no real production to show for it) insulting to the Greek "pride"?
Syriza seems to think so, and at this point the rest of the EU should rightfully tell them to go frick themselves.
Try this yourself. Got a mortgage? Then go to the bank and tell them you are willing and able to pay half of it and only half of it, but even that only if they put off payments for a couple decades and loan you more money every year until that magical time. I guarantee you will find that it isn't only the Germans who are heartless bastards..
You are conflating prior debt restructuring and future lending (in excess of rolling over existing debt).Refusing to restructure the loans isn't belief that they are going to be repaid, it's belief that changing the terms will not help. The problem is Greece's underlying economic structure, and allowing Greece to pile on more debt without substantially changing this underlying economic structure simply increases the size of the default.
Sovereign debt is not collateralized, unlike a mortgage. So it's completely different situation, since there is no "house" to take if Greece doesn't pay. It's a choice between losing 100% or getting something. This happens all the time in finance. The right choice is not to lose 100%.Try this yourself. Got a mortgage? Then go to the bank and tell them you are willing and able to pay half of it and only half of it, but even that only if they put off payments for a couple decades and loan you more money every year until that magical time. I guarantee you will find that it isn't only the Germans who are heartless bastards.
Again, you are conflating a new loans with restructuring of existing loans.Better yet, find a single working mother and make her the same deal. Loan her ten grand, with the understanding that she can begin paying it back twenty years from now, but only five grand, and maybe only two grand if this money doesn't magically increase her earning power. Then loan her enough to pay her bills every year until then. This is absolutely no different from what you are demanding of Germany, that those who have won life's lottery have an obligation to support those who have not, except for one thing - it would be your money.
The choice on existing loans is restructure and get something, or don't and get nothing.
Yeah, because the Greek debt is totally like a morgage and the Germans get to repossess Greece.
As recently exhibited in recent elections, it's quite clear that Greece is never going to pay any of their debts anyhow. As such, why even bother with the pie-in-the-sky promises?
Honestly, at this point the only "restructuring" that Greece and its citizens deserve is to be locked out of international capital markets indefinitely and having their Euros forcibly re-denominated to Drachmas...
The de-lousing costs involved before the country would able to be rented to new occupants would be cost-prohibitive anyhow.
Nice.
Yeah, because the Greek debt is totally like a morgage and the Germans get to repossess Greece.
Nice.
How are you going to pay when you still have a deficit ??? That is what we are talking about. The austerity measures didnt help reaching a surplus, we were instructed to take austerity measures and the GDP fell, that had an affect in tax revenue. So again we were told to take more austerity measures and GDP fell further and thus Tax revenue fell as well. We had this circle for 5 years now, it is obvious to anyone knowing what is happening that this program is not working. And they continue to ask more austerity measures.
Well nobody here will agree only to austerity measures any more. If EU doesnt want to help any more i dont have a problem, but if Greece exit the EZ and EU then things for every other EU countries will not be the same, especially for the northern countries.
Are you somehow going to work into that analogy the single European currency, the dangers of Greece leaving it, the dangers of having a failing state in Europe whose citizens have freedom of movement throughout Europe and the right to work anywhere in Europe, the moral side of having generations of people born into poverty...Another attempt at an analogy.
On trust (unsecured loan), I lend you, £10,000 some time ago.
You have NOT paid me back, and have run out of money (Bank Of WelshBloke is Broke and is Welshing on the loan).
You want to immediately borrow, some more money from me.
I have said, I will, as long as you keep up your job, reduce your spending, and STOP posting on ATOT at 3:00 AM in the morning.
You have had a family vote, and 61% (approx) of your family say "NO".
I am now threatening to stop giving you any more money (loans).
Welshing
Another attempt at an analogy.
On trust (unsecured loan), I lend you, £10,000 some time ago.
You have NOT paid me back, and have run out of money (Bank Of WelshBloke is Broke and is Welshing on the loan).
You want to immediately borrow, some more money from me.
I have said, I will, as long as you keep up your job, reduce your spending, and STOP posting on ATOT at 3:00 AM in the morning.
You have had a family vote, and 61% (approx) of your family say "NO".
I am now threatening to stop giving you any more money (loans).
Are you somehow going to work into that analogy the single European currency, the dangers of Greece leaving it, the dangers of having a failing state in Europe whose citizens have freedom of movement throughout Europe and the right to work anywhere in Europe, the moral side of having generations of people born into poverty...
I'm not particularly against analogies but this is a bigger subject than your mate not buying you that beer he owes you.
Lots of good points, in your reply. I agree.
One of the more worrying, possible developments, is Russia intervening.
E.g. They buy sea port (base ?) rights, in that area.
Then suddenly, Armed "Greek" freedom fighters appear in the area and set up road blocks. Amazingly the "freedom fighters" can only speak Russian and a large plane gets blown up in the area, byRussianstolen Greek anti-aircraft system(s).
Yes, it is a very complicated situation.
I don't see that happening but given how much has been given out to bail out failing private companies it seems strange that such a fuss is being made to help a failing country.Lots of good points, in your reply. I agree.
One of the more worrying, possible developments, is Russia intervening.
E.g. They buy sea port (base ?) rights, in that area.
Then suddenly, Armed "Greek" freedom fighters appear in the area and set up road blocks. Amazingly the "freedom fighters" can only speak Russian and a large plane gets blown up in the area, byRussianstolen Greek anti-aircraft system(s).
Yes, it is a very complicated situation.