So, not a quick turnaround of passage as expected. Looks like the Grexit is back on the table.
That asshole is a complete moron - which would be fine if he actually tolerated any dissent on his so-called forum. If you have a forum owner that is completely clueless but allows people who actually know what they're talking about to speak, then you at least don't get that herd mentality that is financial suicide for any investor. Karl seems to think of himself as the pope of finance - infallible. In fact Karl is the ultimate fade. Do the opposite of whatever he's recommending and you will probably make out like a bandit.Just an FYI, Karl Denninger is a complete nutcase.
Funny thing, in July 2013 he predicted a crash worse than the great depression that would take place within two years for all the usual reasons.
*checks calendar*
Nice call, Karl.
Now that Greece has had a taste of what going it alone will look like, the legislature would have to be insanely masochistic to NOT go along with the new proposals. Sure, it sucks to have to assent to a much worse deal than what you could have gotten, but that's what happens when you ignore reality.So, not a quick turnaround of passage as expected. Looks like the Grexit is back on the table.
Denninger's words, not Tsipras', and Denninger is an idiot. If changing the party in power invalidated loans, there would be no more loans to governments, period. And if taking out a loan you can't repay constituted lender fraud which meant you didn't have to repay the loan, there would be no more loans, period. Greece would be the first and hardest hit of nations by such a policy and currently cannot pay its bills, so effectively such a policy would crash Greece like a lead balloon launched from space. That letter is such a vacuous creation that one wonders if Greece crashing is Denninger's preference.That's from nearly a week ago. Tsipras has since come to Jesus. He is a new man and you can't hold his past words against him.
OK, thanks. I wonder if Denniger and Tsipras were separated at birth.Denninger's words, not Tsipras', and Denninger is an idiot. If changing the party in power invalidated loans, there would be no more loans to governments, period. And if taking out a loan you can't repay constituted lender fraud which meant you didn't have to repay the loan, there would be no more loans, period. Greece would be the first and hardest hit of nations by such a policy and currently cannot pay its bills, so effectively such a policy would crash Greece like a lead balloon launched from space. That letter is such a vacuous creation that one wonders if Greece crashing is Denninger's preference.
lol I don't think so - Tsipras needed only six months of crashing his country's economy to learn his lesson. Unless Denninger is the stupid brother. lolOK, thanks. I wonder if Denniger and Tsipras were separated at birth.
Tsipras needed only six months of crashing his country's economy to learn his lesson.
Varoufakis is showing his true colors after being shown the door:
http://www.newstatesman.com/world-a...ufakis-full-transcript-our-battle-save-greece
Looks like he wanted Grexit all along, but at the same time he recognizes that Greece doesn't have what it takes for a Grexit, including a prime minister with balls to push for it. Indeed the labels of amateur, gambler and time waster suits Varoufakis properly. If Greece couldn't sustain Grexit why have it in the cards and why push for it? That meant basically giving up control of the possible outcomes once the other sides started pushing for a Grexit, something they ought to be preparing for years.
Congratulations for the Greek people for electing and supporting in a decisive referendum the most incompetent European government in a long time.
Greece already agreed in June to the primary surplus target (unsustainable austerity) that the Europeans demanded, the disagreement was over the means to get there, and they were pretty minor, compared to the damage done to both sides by the failure to reach an agreement.
http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/files/2015/06/Greek-crediors.pdf (Pre-referendum Greek offer with differences red-lined by creditors)
The difference is that in June, they were talking about $8B loan with no debt relief now they are talking about $100B + debt reprofiling (which was off the table before) + massive fiscal stimulus (which was also off the table before).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/13_07_15eurosummit.pdf
If Eurocrats put fiscal stimulus and debt re-profiling on the table before, a deal could have been struck before Greek banks shut down and imposed massive additional bailout costs on the creditors. But they didn't want a deal, they wanted a capitulation. Well they got it, congratulations, but at a huge cost to their own taxpayers.
After reading the interview, how you can say that he wanted Grexit all along is beyond comprehension. If anybody has been pushing Grexit, demanding terms as draconian as possible, that would be Schauble.
They seem to have taken the correct approach since even now the Greek government is balking at the deal. The Greeks aren't reliable partners and the Germans are predatory, they're perfect for each other. In the end the Grexit with subsequent total loss to creditors and complete debasement of Greek standards of living will have to do if Greeks won't voluntarily address their structural economic issues and make the hard decisions on spending that need to be made.
"For I can raise no money by vile means."
He planned Grexit, he pushed the PM for it, he didn't seriously negotiate in these 6 months and only focused on overturning the memorandum signed by the previous administration. He basically wanted European money without European conditions. Who would be dumb enough to give him money without strings attached, as he wanted to do first through new loans and then through monetary financing of his government by the ECB?
They seem to have taken the correct approach since even now the Greek government is balking at the deal. The Greeks aren't reliable partners and the Germans are predatory, they're perfect for each other. In the end the Grexit with subsequent total loss to creditors and complete debasement of Greek standards of living will have to do if Greeks won't voluntarily address their structural economic issues and make the hard decisions on spending that need to be made.
"For I can raise no money by vile means."
Seeking terms better than the suicide pact signed by the previous govt isn't the same as pushing for Grexit & anybody with enough sense to pour piss out of a boot knows it.
The issue is not just Greece, it's the Euro. It's too strong for everyone except Germany. Euro-zone has 11% unemployment rate and is doing little to nothing about it. US has a 5.5% rate, half of Eurozone, and it's running unprecedented monetary stimulus on top of a fiscal deficit to stimulate the economy.
Greece is just canary in the coal mine.
Yes, Europe has to become a lot more like Germany or else there will be imbalances. The alternative is fiscal and even political union, which will yield another set of tools to deal with these imbalances.
It's not that simple. Back in 2002 Germany was the sick man of the Europe, they had to reform and guess what, it worked for them. Germany become a competitiveness powerhouse, and they are trying to push Europe to follow its lead. I don't think it's beyond the means of all the EU countries (with the notable exception of Greece) to follow some of the German recipe and reap some of its success. Now if Europe doesn't reform, then yes, Greece will be the canary in the coal mine.
Well said.Yes, Europe has to become a lot more like Germany or else there will be imbalances. The alternative is fiscal and even political union, which will yield another set of tools to deal with these imbalances.
It's not that simple. Back in 2002 Germany was the sick man of the Europe, they had to reform and guess what, it worked for them. Germany become a competitiveness powerhouse, and they are trying to push Europe to follow its lead. I don't think it's beyond the means of all the EU countries (with the notable exception of Greece) to follow some of the German recipe and reap some of its success. Now if Europe doesn't reform, then yes, Greece will be the canary in the coal mine.
you're underestimating the amount of corruption embedded in certain societies and the democratic deficit they face.It's not that simple. Back in 2002 Germany was the sick man of the Europe, they had to reform and guess what, it worked for them. Germany become a competitiveness powerhouse, and they are trying to push Europe to follow its lead. I don't think it's beyond the means of all the EU countries (with the notable exception of Greece) to follow some of the German recipe and reap some of its success. Now if Europe doesn't reform, then yes, Greece will be the canary in the coal mine.
Germany had that exact same problem, given that almost half its population were raised in a system where bribes were often required to get someone to do his nominal job.you're underestimating the amount of corruption embedded in certain societies and the democratic deficit they face.
Germany is a federal state with people of a certain mentality.
The issue is not just Greece, it's the Euro. It's too strong for everyone except Germany. Euro-zone has 11% unemployment rate and is doing little to nothing about it. US has a 5.5% rate, half of Eurozone, and it's running unprecedented monetary stimulus on top of a fiscal deficit to stimulate the economy.
Euro-zone has twice the unemployment and is not doing much about it. Why? Because Germany decides what happens in Europe monetarily or fiscally. Germany has unemployment rate of 4.7%, so they are fine with the status quo, but everyone else is getting screwed by it. It would be like the US Fed just looking at the state with the lowest unemployment and saying, yep, our job here is done, everyone else, it's your fault for not being like Nebraska.
Greece is just canary in the coal mine.
The ECB should be looking at unemployment rate in Euro-zone as it is now, not as it wishes it would be if everyone was like Germany. And right now, the unemployment rate is 11%, which would be considered horrible in the US, but is acceptable to the EU, because Cool Aid about integration is better than young people having a job.