Greece about to default

[Charmonium]

One of the more worrying, possible developments, is Russia intervening.

Russia can't afford to do jack shit. They now have less than $400B in foreign reserves which iirc is down from around $650B at the beginning of the year. That's not a lot of money for a country like Russia and they're burning through it fast.

 

[norseamd]

I don't see that happening but given how much has been given out to bail out failing private companies it seems strange that such a fuss is being made to help a failing country.

Because you like me must obviously not understand white people that much. It is some type of colonialistic imperialist superiority type shit.

 

[SOFTengCOMPelec]

Well now who out of any one would this term have actually come from?

And furthermore the use of such terms with obvious connotations is not surprising from "developed white western culture" in any way at all.

The 1st World was built off the 4th World (3rd World that is existing in the 1st World countries) 1st and the 3rd World 2nd indeed for sure.

Looking the term up (I knew what it meant, but NOT how the word came into existence), it seems that it is actually refering to "Englishman", who have gone to Wales to HIDE because they owe money, they DON'T want to pay back.

tl;dr i.e. It does NOT refer to the people of Wales.

Sorry, if I have caused any sadness, with my use of the term.

Furthermore are you applying this standard to all EU countries equally?

Some people were very skeptical about the creation of the Euro, in the first place, and thought it would end in tears, sooner or later.

Fortunately, the UK was kept out of the Euro. So far, it seems to have turned out for the best.

If Greece still had there own currency, the situation would be much easier to handle. Although Greece would probably have huge inflation, by now. But the rest of the European countries would be relatively isolated from that financial problem.

 

[WelshBloke]

Sorry, if I have caused any sadness, with my use of the term.

I'm fine with it, don't worry.

Some people were very skeptical about the creation of the Euro, in the first place, and thought it would end in tears, sooner or later.

Yeah, I was always skeptical that economies as diverse as Germany and Portugal were going to be run on a common currency and that was before the expansion of the EZ.

To be more cynical, the EU has always been a club primarily designed to suit France and Germany. Any one else that wants to join is going to be playing second fiddle to the interests of those two members.

 

[glenn1]

You are conflating prior debt restructuring and future lending (in excess of rolling over existing debt).

Okay then, let Greece not roll over existing debt and that can be the precondition for prior debt restructuring. Somehow I think the Greeks would very quickly lose interest in the former unless it somehow enabled the later.

Sovereign debt is not collateralized, unlike a mortgage. So it's completely different situation, since there is no "house" to take if Greece doesn't pay. It's a choice between losing 100% or getting something. This happens all the time in finance. The right choice is not to lose 100%.

Again, you are conflating a new loans with restructuring of existing loans.
The choice on existing loans is restructure and get something, or don't and get nothing.

The economic term for what you're describing is the Sunk Cost fallacy. It would help if you tried to actually educate yourself on a topic before opining on it.

 

[norseamd]

Looking the term up (I knew what it meant, but NOT how the word came into existence), it seems that it is actually refering to "Englishman", who have gone to Wales to HIDE because they owe money, they DON'T want to pay back.

tl;dr i.e. It does NOT refer to the people of Wales.

Sorry, if I have caused any sadness, with my use of the term.

Well what country would you ever find such dishonest shady exploitive scheming from at all?

No not England.

And to be fair you have progressed notably from your old ways but still a ways to go.

And all the other Anglo colonies have learned the bad conduct including America. And there are many countries besides Anglo cultures who do the same shit like the Germans, Muscovites, Italians, French, Indians, Thai, Arabs, Chinese, and more.

 

[SOFTengCOMPelec]

Sorry for the combination of so many replies, in one post.

Do you ever study Geopolitics or Grand Strategy?

Might you understand why I might ask this question?

I'm NOT very familiar with the term, and would be guessing, as to why you ask.

Possible guesses, would be, because the name stems from Greek, or because there are major political issues (such as the far left and far right), which could be coming into play. Also the huge number of migrants, who seem to enter Europe, via Greece.

I don't see that happening but given how much has been given out to bail out failing private companies it seems strange that such a fuss is being made to help a failing country.

I agree. But they seem to be politically too reluctant, to solve the issues here, such as poor tax compliance, excessively generous retirement packages (and ages), and way too high public sector salaries.

Russia can't afford to do jack shit. They now have less than $400B in foreign reserves which iirc is down from around $650B at the beginning of the year. That's not a lot of money for a country like Russia and they're burning through it fast.

On the one hand, yes, financially (and for many other reasons), Russia would be MAD, to pursue these crazy foreign country invasions.

But Russia have consistently refused (probably mainly due to Putin and the way he wants to remain in power, in that country), to back out of this Ukraine "war" situation. Despite being given many opportunities to stop it, without losing too much face.

I think there is a very real danger, that things could escalate, between Russia and the rest of the world (or at least vs Nata countries and other near to Russia countries).

As things get to worsen in Russia (money wise), it will be interesting (and perhaps very sad), when we see how Russia reacts to the situation.

I am worried that they may react like Japan did, towards the end of the second world war, and maybe fight back, rather than surrender and/or back down.

I'm fine with it, don't worry.





Yeah, I was always skeptical that economies as diverse as Germany and Portugal were going to be run on a common currency and that was before the expansion of the EZ.

To be more cynical, the EU has always been a club primarily designed to suit France and Germany. Any one else that wants to join is going to be playing second fiddle to the interests of those two members.

Yes, the UK seems to be treated (more often, than not), as a kind of outsider, in many EU things. Especially when they discuss the Euro, but at other times as well (I guess).

Germany (especially), act as if they are in charge of the whole EU, quite often, in my opinion.

 

[norseamd]

I'm NOT very familiar with the term, and would be guessing, as to why you ask.

Possible guesses, would be, because the name stems from Greek, or because there are major political issues (such as the far left and far right), which could be coming into play. Also the huge number of migrants, who seem to enter Europe, via Greece.

No.

More or less I asked because I find it hard to believe that the current situation could lead to Donbass style conflict in the Greek areas in the short term. This type of fighting has not occurred in Hungary or Serbia or actually even in Russian-occupied territories like Transistria, Abkhazia, or South Ossetia so I doubt you are going to see it soon from cantankerous Greek mobs at all in the short term.

However it is true that often being learned or set in way can cause experts to miss something and that amateurs or greenhorns can bring outside perspectives or fresh insights into the idea, situation, or problem.

So I have not actually considered so far that the Russians might influence Greek government and society and cause the rise of some Golden Dawn like political organization yet. So you could get a right wing violent fundamentalists running the country and you might also see some targeting of foreigners and maybe even some cross-border crime and trafficking and that type of shit.

And reading your response it seems obvious that you are not that aware of geopolitics and grand strategy. These subjects are not well known to commoners but they are very important. And also although these subjects are related and interconnected and interdependent they are not the same subjects. Also note the name Grand Strategy as it is known as the highest or grandest or the most epic of all strategy. And also this is actually what grand strategy games like Crusader Kings or Europa Univeralis are concerning themselves with as the core of their content.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_strategy

 

[SOFTengCOMPelec]

No.

More or less I asked because I find it hard to believe that the current situation could lead to Donbass style conflict in the Greek areas in the short term. This type of fighting has not occurred in Hungary or Serbia or actually even in Russian-occupied territories like Transistria, Abkhazia, or South Ossetia so I doubt you are going to see it soon from cantankerous Greek mobs at all in the short term.

However it is true that often being learned or set in way can cause experts to miss something and that amateurs or greenhorns can bring outside perspectives or fresh insights into the idea, situation, or problem.

So I have not actually considered so far that the Russians might influence Greek government and society and cause the rise of some Golden Dawn like political organization yet. So you could get a right wing violent fundamentalists running the country and you might also see some targeting of foreigners and maybe even some cross-border crime and trafficking and that type of shit.

And reading your response it seems obvious that you are not that aware of geopolitics and grand strategy. These subjects are not well known to commoners but they are very important. And also although these subjects are related and interconnected and interdependent they are not the same subjects. Also note the name Grand Strategy as it is known as the highest or grandest or the most epic of all strategy. And also this is actually what grand strategy games like Crusader Kings or Europa Univeralis are concerning themselves with as the core of their content.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_strategy

I agree, I am NOT particularly aware of geopolitics and grand strategy stuff.

I hope Russia do not get involved, as that could make matters, considerably worse than they currently are.

I sometimes hear rumors about the real truth (supposedly) that is going on. E.g. That the Iraqi war, was really about Oil, rather than Saddam Hussein. And even more contentious conspiracy theory stories.

One big danger of the current situation, is that Greece could go badly out of control, internally, with mass rioting and civil war like situations, if things deepen/worsen too much.

If it moves into becoming a humanitarian disaster, then that will be a VERY bad thing, not just for the Greek population, but probably for the European Community as a whole, who will probably have to sort their act(s) out, and solve the resultant mess out. Because it is way too close, to home, to ignore.

 

[norseamd]

I sometimes hear rumors about the real truth (supposedly) that is going on. E.g. That the Iraqi war, was really about Oil, rather than Saddam Hussein. And even more contentious conspiracy theory stories.

conspiracy (plural conspiracies)

1. The act of two or more persons, called conspirators, working secretly to obtain some goal, usually understood with negative connotations.
2. (law) An agreement between two or more persons to break the law at some time in the future.
3. A group of ravens.
4. (linguistics) A situation in which different phonological or grammatical rules lead to similar or related outcomes.

There is nothing irrational about that insight that you just mentioned.

 

[werepossum]

You are conflating prior debt restructuring and future lending (in excess of rolling over existing debt).

Sovereign debt is not collateralized, unlike a mortgage. So it's completely different situation, since there is no "house" to take if Greece doesn't pay. It's a choice between losing 100% or getting something. This happens all the time in finance. The right choice is not to lose 100%.

Again, you are conflating a new loans with restructuring of existing loans.
The choice on existing loans is restructure and get something, or don't and get nothing.

Ah, the proggies point of view - if you can't take something from me, then I don't really owe you anything.

The Greece support team is conflating new loans with restructuring old loans, because Greece is demanding new loans for vague promises of repaying some unspecified portion of the existing loans.

As recently exhibited in recent elections, it's quite clear that Greece is never going to pay any of their debts anyhow. As such, why even bother with the pie-in-the-sky promises?

Honestly, at this point the only "restructuring" that Greece and its citizens deserve is to be locked out of international capital markets indefinitely and having their Euros forcibly re-denominated to Drachmas...

The de-lousing costs involved before the country would able to be rented to new occupants would be cost-prohibitive anyhow.

Exactly. The Greeks are already talking about their existing debt being unsustainable while demanding tens of billions in new loans just for the next year or so. What idiot is moronic enough to even pretend any of the existing loans will ever be paid back?

Creditors will have their 200B Euros in loans re-denominated in Drachmas too. Because they don't like that Tsirpas guy who is telling them the same thing that IMF is finally telling them after being in denial for 5 years, which is the Greek debt load is unsustainable and needs to be restructured, and that austerity doesn't work.

There aren't enough trees in Creation to pay back the existing Greek loans in drachmas, much less the new loans Greece is demanding. Everyone knows these loans are never being paid back, and the Greeks aren't even pretending they will ever do so except with new loans.

 

[werepossum]

Exactly.

I said some shit about it as well somewhere else.

Edit: Also nice to see at least one citizen from the Northern EU has some humanity about real countries with real humans and that type of shit.

So Germany, France, Poland, Spain, etc. are not real countries with real people? What makes their citizens deserving of supporting the Greeks?

You just posted a chart that shows the deficit shrinking. Seems to me it's working. More austerity should get you to a surplus.

That line between deficit and surplus seems amazingly mobile, eh? One minute Greece is supposedly showing a surplus, demonstrating how they implemented austerity as they promised. Next minute they have a deficit, demonstrating how austerity didn't work. It's that one annoying semi-friend who insists on telling you how well he is doing compared to you, until the waiter brings the check, then it's all woe and doom and that new truck, he borrowed that from a friend.

Are you somehow going to work into that analogy the single European currency, the dangers of Greece leaving it, the dangers of having a failing state in Europe whose citizens have freedom of movement throughout Europe and the right to work anywhere in Europe, the moral side of having generations of people born into poverty...

I'm not particularly against analogies but this is a bigger subject than your mate not buying you that beer he owes you.

I have every confidence that if Greeks having freedom of movement throughout Europe becomes a problem, that too can be solved. Cheaply.

 

[Turkish]

So, are you volunteering your nation to step up and provide these wise average Greeks with enough money to spend their way to solvency? If you are correct, it's a foolproof investment. If the EuroZone and the IMF are correct, it's a gift of your tax dollars, which will come out of your social programs. Which will it be?

If you really think the people who you disagree with are going to fall for your game of "go on and invest in Greece if you really believe in it", you are sadly mistaken. It only makes you seem foolish, more so than the arguments you have you presented so far.

 

[Exophase]

No, it's not that "most Greeks" don't like to pay taxes.

The rich oligarchs who own and operate that country don't pay their taxes.

You can be damn sure the little guy in Greece pays taxes.

But, you're a conservative. Kiss up, punch down. It's your MO.

You've been trained well.

This is purely anecdotal, but I had a doctor a few years who was from Greece and he told me that he knew a lot of people back home who believed only suckers paid their taxes. And it didn't sound like he was talking about wealthy people.

I doubt this was ever a matter of most Greeks not paying their taxes, but if there was any culture of evasion at all combined with a government that is too uninterested or unable to enforce payment it can definitely be a problem.

 

[PingviN]

No, it's not that "most Greeks" don't like to pay taxes.

The rich oligarchs who own and operate that country don't pay their taxes.

You can be damn sure the little guy in Greece pays taxes.

But, you're a conservative. Kiss up, punch down. It's your MO.

You've been trained well.

They may pay the taxes they can't avoid, but go to Greece, make a cash purchase and see if you get a receipt. I'm going to say you wont and that is that. The Greeks has a bigger black market than pretty much any other EU nation, and not because just the rich skip on taxes. Everyone does.

 

[WelshBloke]

I have every confidence that if Greeks having freedom of movement throughout Europe becomes a problem, that too can be solved. Cheaply.

Go on then, explain how that's going to work then.

 

[IGBT]

why not get the obama involved in this..he can use that phone and pen maybe an executive order or two!!

 

[Turkish]

They may pay the taxes they can't avoid, but go to Greece, make a cash purchase and see if you get a receipt. I'm going to say you wont and that is that. The Greeks has a bigger black market than pretty much any other EU nation, and not because just the rich skip on taxes. Everyone does.

I vacationed for 2 weeks in Greece last month and even though I paid with plastic mostly, the hotel we stayed in was cash only and provided a receipt. And the owners who we've befriended told us that their business has been downhill in the past 5 years despite the fact it's been getting cheaper for Northern Europeans to vacation in Greece. So much for austerity helping.

 

[Turkish]

How long do you all think it will take Greece to achieve a sustainable economy in either scenario?

A) Greece accepts yet another austerity and stays in EZ.
B) Greece leaves EZ and goes back to the drachma.

I think 30 and 15 years respectively.

 

[PingviN]

I vacationed for 2 weeks in Greece last month and even though I paid with plastic mostly, the hotel we stayed in was cash only and provided a receipt. And the owners who we've befriended told us that their business has been downhill in the past 5 years despite the fact it's been getting cheaper for Northern Europeans to vacation in Greece. So much for austerity helping.

Hasn't gotten much cheaper. The Euro has strengthened against non-Euro EU currencies and neither food nor labour costs are down enough. Flying there hasn't turned cheap either.



If you want to kick-start your economy with tourism, you need a weaker currency

 

[AtenRa]

You just posted a chart that shows the deficit shrinking. Seems to me it's working. More austerity should get you to a surplus.

Ehm no, let me explain the situation

We decreased public spending by decreasing pensions(40%), decreasing public worker wages (20-30% or more). Also from reforms, we closed a lot of public institutions, decreased public spending like, decrease Millitary spending, decreased Pharmaceutical spending, decreasing public school/universities spending, decreased public hospital spending etc etc.
But austerity measures where ALSO taken for the Private sector(cut off wages, cut off pensions etc etc) as well that had a negative affect increasing the unemployment to 25% (~1.5 million people).

Beyond all that we also took taxation measures, Increased taxes on the public and even higher taxes on the private sector. Also measures were taken for taxes evasion. Other taxes increased like property taxation by 7x, Fuel taxation increased by %450 etc etc.
Also, increased VAT to 23% from 19%. All that increased the cost of living and decreased spending in the private sector further.

So, while spending is decreasing, taxation revenue also decreasing simultaneously and cost of living is getting higher. So we have come to the point that we have a 3-5% deficit that no matter how many more austerity measures we take it cannot close because the taxation revenue also decreasing.
At that point we should keep all those measures taken the last 5 years, make more reforms in areas that need to be addressed and try to Increase the economy in order for increase taxation revenue and have zero deficit.

The real problem now is not that people evade paying taxes when they have money, the problem is that middle class people have become poor, poor have become poorer and all those people dont have money to pay an increased taxation. People and EU countries should understand that we are in the beginning of a humanitarian crisis here in Greece and there must be a program change to resolve the situation.

 

[MongGrel]

why not get the obama involved in this..he can use that phone and pen maybe an executive order or two!!

Just an idiotic post.

If you have nothing realistic to add, just don't make yourself look like a fool.

 

[Turkish]

Is anyone watching the Eurosummit? http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/ebs/live.cfm?page=2&sitelang=en

Jeez. The tone of discussions is disgusting. Regardless of which side you are on, these politicians are apparently incapable of having a civilized discussion. We are fools to think of them agreeing on a solution.

 

[norseamd]

I vacationed for 2 weeks in Greece last month and even though I paid with plastic mostly, the hotel we stayed in was cash only and provided a receipt. And the owners who we've befriended told us that their business has been downhill in the past 5 years despite the fact it's been getting cheaper for Northern Europeans to vacation in Greece. So much for austerity helping.

Glad you guys never went into the EU?

 

[Turkish]

Glad you guys never went into the EU?

Haha, not really, I would've liked my country to at least try and implement the reforms needed for EU accession even though as an atheist I am aware that membership was not even a remote possibility. What's shitty though is the Islamist government in power for the past 12-13 years has turned its back on European ideals and instead faces Russia and the Middle East as friends.