Greece about to default

[norseamd]

Haha, not really, I would've liked my country to at least try and implement the reforms needed for EU accession even though as an atheist I am aware that membership was not even a remote possibility. What's shitty though is the Islamist government in power for the past 12-13 years has turned its back on European ideals and instead faces Russia and the Middle East as friends.

Noticed that turn of relations towards the Muscovites. Was thinking about wanting to ask you about what you think about Erdogan but was hesitant. Well I hope you get rid of that asshole. Did you know the Russians tried to win a helicopter competition for a contract by calling their entry the Erdogan?

Also do you know about the so named Deep State in your own country? Suppose that might be gone now that Erdogan has taken power from the secular military establishment.

So then does this mean you voted for the HDP?

 

[compuwiz1]

Socialism. It doesn't work. Now go vote for Bernie Sanders and we'll see how that works out. (Actually, he's rooted in Communism. Easily obtained info.)

 

[nickqt]

Socialism. It doesn't work. Now go vote for Bernie Sanders and we'll see how that works out. (Actually, he's rooted in Communism. Easily obtained info.)

Socialism never works. Just ask the Germans.

 

[Turkish]

Noticed that turn of relations towards the Muscovites. Was thinking about wanting to ask you about what you think about Erdogan but was hesitant. Well I hope you get rid of that asshole. Did you know the Russians tried to win a helicopter competition for a contract by calling their entry the Erdogan?

Also do you know about the so named Deep State in your own country? Suppose that might be gone now that Erdogan has taken power from the secular military establishment.

So then does this mean you voted for the HDP?

Not here to hijack the thread but since you asked... Yes, I voted for the HDP.

- Erdogan is a power hungry sick nutjob who also happens to be incredibly smart and politically talented. He knows how to move the masses and has been incredibly successful using religion to his benefit. I think this is rather a problem with Islam, not Turkey or Erdogan but let's not get into that complicated mess. I also hope we get rid of him as soon as possible but don't see it happening anytime soon (unless he dies suddenly). The reason I have mentioned Islam as the problem is the electorate will just find another Erdogan. I don't know how to explain myself in this regard but I would be glad to see the day I am proven wrong.
- I used to vote for the CHP, the Republican People's Party founded by Atatürk, and my mother's male lineage is pretty much all professional soldiers (mostly brigadier and major generals). If you were to have a conversation with them, they would all deny such a deep state exists and blame it on minorities and foreign powers trying to ruin the country. I know foreign interventions are there, this is the sad truth, but the military is not innocent. I used to believe everything I have read, watched or heard on mainstream media portraying the Kurds as the problem but experienced first hand the same media portraying those of us who protested against Erdogan and his rule during the 2013 Gezi Park protests as terrorists. I proudly inhaled my fair share of the tear gas
- Finally, I have no hope for my country. What can one expect from a mentality that idolizes the Ottoman Empire when history is out there in the wide open to show how that ended? Truth be told, I am looking forward to the first chance of immigrating to a country where I can live without worrying which of my rights will be taken away from me next.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Socialism. It doesn't work. Now go vote for Bernie Sanders and we'll see how that works out. (Actually, he's rooted in Communism. Easily obtained info.)

Uh...OK. So why is it doing well in Germany and Scandinavia? Why is the United States having all of these huge income inequality problems? It's not like Capitalism is all wine and roses here. (Have you seen the US's problems with providing health care and wealth concentration amongst a tiny percentage of the populace lately?)

 

[fskimospy]

No one is arguing that Greece will ever pay its debts in full. (Well, except the occasional Greek.) They are arguing over whether Greece will be allowed to take on new debts which will also never be paid in full.

Plenty of people are arguing exactly that. You do not appear to have a strong grasp of what's going on here.

I'd be willing to bet that not a single economist, be he professional or Internet amateur, who is arguing that Greece should be given more money without major structural changes has actually personally invested in Greek bonds. As always, proggie economic policies are best carried out with other people's money.

It's pretty obvious you've lost the argument when you have resorted to the 'if you think taxes should go up then go write the government a check!' argument. It's childish and vacuous. Whether a policy is correct or not does not depend on the investment portfolio of the person advocating the position. It's incredible to me that such a thing would even need to be explained to you.

What's funny is that you already tried this line earlier and it was pointed out to you how stupid it was. Not only are you reduced to dumb arguments, they aren't even original ones, haha. As always, werepossum would rather look stupid than sacrifice his pride.

 

[fskimospy]

You just posted a chart that shows the deficit shrinking. Seems to me it's working. More austerity should get you to a surplus.

Strange. Their deficits keep shrinking but their debt/GDP keeps going up.

Why is that? Because shrinking the deficit is causing a larger than 1:1 reduction in GDP, making their debts even harder to repay. This chart here is a perfect example of why austerity in a depression is dumb, dumb, dumb.

 

[Greenman]

If you really think the people who you disagree with are going to fall for your game of "go on and invest in Greece if you really believe in it", you are sadly mistaken. It only makes you seem foolish, more so than the arguments you have you presented so far.

Why is that a game? And why are his arguments foolish? It's called "put your money where your mouth is". If you believe strongly in something you should be willing to offer financial support. Everyone that claims the answer is to hand the Greeks more money is invariably talking about handing them someone elses money.
The Greeks are using their massive debt as leverage to borrow more, while declaring that it will get spent as they see fit. As a sovereign nation, they have every right to do that, and every other nation on earth has the right to say no. That's whats happening right now.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Strange. Their deficits keep shrinking but their debt/GDP keeps going up.

Why is that? Because shrinking the deficit is causing a larger than 1:1 reduction in GDP, making their debts even harder to repay. This chart here is a perfect example of why austerity in a depression is dumb, dumb, dumb.

Do you actually think that Greece could grow there way out of their problems if other countries would just loan them more money?

 

[werepossum]

Go on then, explain how that's going to work then.

Greece gets booted from the EU.

Plenty of people are arguing exactly that. You do not appear to have a strong grasp of what's going on here.

It's pretty obvious you've lost the argument when you have resorted to the 'if you think taxes should go up then go write the government a check!' argument. It's childish and vacuous. Whether a policy is correct or not does not depend on the investment portfolio of the person advocating the position. It's incredible to me that such a thing would even need to be explained to you.

What's funny is that you already tried this line earlier and it was pointed out to you how stupid it was. Not only are you reduced to dumb arguments, they aren't even original ones, haha. As always, werepossum would rather look stupid than sacrifice his pride.

As always, the proggie position is 100% correct - but only for other people's money. Point of order here - it was never pointed out to me how stupid was this position, you merely asserted it was stupid. If loaning more money to Greece is a wise investment, then it's a wise investment, period.

As far as plenty of people arguing that Greece is going to pay back all its debts in full, who exactly is arguing that? All I hear is that the Greek debt is already unsustainable and must be cut, in addition to new loans. Paying back half of what one owes is NOT paying one's debt in full, even if the lender agrees to take something rather than nothing. And it should be axiomatic that if Greece cannot pay back its current loans, it isn't going to pay back additional loans either.

One small bright spot for the Greek people - the EC bank agreed to maintain "minimal liquidity" for Greek banks until Sunday, the new new deadline for Greece to submit a proposal more palatable than "gimme!".

 

[werepossum]

Why is that a game? And why are his arguments foolish? It's called "put your money where your mouth is". If you believe strongly in something you should be willing to offer financial support. Everyone that claims the answer is to hand the Greeks more money is invariably talking about handing them someone elses money.
The Greeks are using their massive debt as leverage to borrow more, while declaring that it will get spent as they see fit. As a sovereign nation, they have every right to do that, and every other nation on earth has the right to say no. That's whats happening right now.

Exactly. Everyone insisting that Greece should be loaned more money should be willing to step up and do so if it's a sound investment. Greece is literally the only developed nation offering double digit yields - I think it's currently around 18%? Where else can one earn that kind of return on such a solid investment? Yet strangely, buying Greek government bonds remains something proggies insist that other people should do while they steer clear, defending such two-faced behavior by calling it a game to point it out or with obscure references to investment portfolios.

 

[Turkish]

Exactly. Everyone insisting that Greece should be loaned more money should be willing to step up and do so if it's a sound investment. Greece is literally the only developed nation offering double digit yields - I think it's currently around 18%? Where else can one earn that kind of return on such a solid investment? Yet strangely, buying Greek government bonds remains something proggies insist that other people should do while they steer clear, defending such two-faced behavior by calling it a game to point it out or with obscure references to investment portfolios.

It's like saying if you think fighting Islamic terrorism is a good idea then you should just go parachute into Syria yourself and start shooting terrorists. See how dumb that sounds? It's dumb because you have professional armies to do that. It's the same thing with Greece. The banks and other financial institutions are professional entities who made an investment by loaning that money to Greece with interest. I am not a professional lender.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

It's like saying if you think fighting Islamic terrorism is a good idea then you should just go parachute into Syria yourself and start shooting terrorists. See how dumb that sounds?

Agree...that does sound really dumb. lol

I've seen more than a few really bad false equivalencies in the past...but this one takes the cake!

 

[Turkish]

Agree...that does sound really dumb. lol

I've seen more than a few really bad false equivalencies in the past...but this one takes the cake!

Only if you disagree with it

 

[werepossum]

It's like saying if you think fighting Islamic terrorism is a good idea then you should just go parachute into Syria yourself and start shooting terrorists. See how dumb that sounds? It's dumb because you have professional armies to do that. It's the same thing with Greece. The banks and other financial institutions are professional entities who made an investment by loaning that money to Greece with interest. I am not a professional lender.

That's a very poor analogy. For one thing, I specifically asked if you were volunteering your nation to step up and provide these wise average Greeks with enough money to spend their way to solvency. Certainly Turkey has banks who should jump on this investment opportunity, right? Unless Greece defaults, your nation is only wealthier and stronger for making this wise investment, and Turkey needs to invest its retirement fund somewhere. For another, one need not be a professional lender to buy government bonds; it requires no personal risk, no separation from job or family, no particular training. Government bonds are quite common investment vehicles for individuals, although not nearly as popular today among younger people due to mutual funds' generally better returns. But any individual with money to invest surely should jump on an 18% return if he truly believes it's a sound investment. That's well above current mutual fund yields and they aren't even government-insured.

 

[Jaskalas]

Sounds like we should be telling Obama + Congress to invest in Greece. 18% RoI, let's get the US some piece of the action!

 

[fskimospy]

Do you actually think that Greece could grow there way out of their problems if other countries would just loan them more money?

Greece's debt is currently too large to be repaid right now no matter what. Other than that, yes, being able to lessen austerity would make their debts easier to repay. That's what multiplier >1 means. If someone loans them $1 and their GDP grows by $2 as a result, their debts are now less of a problem. It's just math.

 

[fskimospy]

Agree...that does sound really dumb. lol

I've seen more than a few really bad false equivalencies in the past...but this one takes the cake!

It's EXACTLY the same thing. Advocating for action by individuals for a collective action problem. By werepossum's logic if you think a course of action (investing in Greece/battling ISIS in Syria) is a good idea then you should act alone to further it (personally buying their bonds/fighting ISIS yourself), regardless of whether or not you acting alone will actually achieve the result you want.

If you guys are too blind to see an exact example of why your reasoning is so bad then..well.. I guess that explains why you tried to use such bad reasoning to begin with.

 

[fskimospy]

That's a very poor analogy. For one thing, I specifically asked if you were volunteering your nation to step up and provide these wise average Greeks with enough money to spend their way to solvency.

You explicitly called out individual economists for not personally investing. If it's a poor analogy that's your fault for making such a dumb one to begin with.

 

[werepossum]

Greece's debt is currently too large to be repaid right now no matter what. Other than that, yes, being able to lessen austerity would make their debts easier to repay. That's what multiplier >1 means. If someone loans them $1 and their GDP grows by $2 as a result, their debts are now less of a problem. It's just math.

But only if someone is someone else.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Greece's debt is currently too large to be repaid right now no matter what. Other than that, yes, being able to lessen austerity would make their debts easier to repay. That's what multiplier >1 means. If someone loans them $1 and their GDP grows by $2 as a result, their debts are now less of a problem. It's just math.

I take that as a 'no'. Then it looks like it's time to go back to the drachma and hope their resulting "self-imposed" austerity isn't quite as onerous.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

It's EXACTLY the same thing. Advocating for action by individuals for a collective action problem. By werepossum's logic if you think a course of action (investing in Greece/battling ISIS in Syria) is a good idea then you should act alone to further it (personally buying their bonds/fighting ISIS yourself), regardless of whether or not you acting alone will actually achieve the result you want.

If you guys are too blind to see an exact example of why your reasoning is so bad then..well.. I guess that explains why you tried to use such bad reasoning to begin with.

So you would be OK sending our military to fight ISIS knowing full well that it's likely we would lose all our troops? I think not.

 

[lotus503]

Socialism. It doesn't work. Now go vote for Bernie Sanders and we'll see how that works out. (Actually, he's rooted in Communism. Easily obtained info.)

There is a difference between socialism and some socialist policy in a democratic republic.

Its not all or nothing

 

[unokitty]

"tactics without strategy is the noise of defeat." --Sun Tzu

Noise of Defeat

What has Syriza accomplished after five months of being in power aside from having toyed with people's emotions and having generated a great deal of temporary enthusiasm about giving the finger to Germany and the EU?

Syriza ...has managed, instead, to revert the economy back to a recession after a minor but promising 0.8 percent rate of growth at the end of 2014, bring the banking system to the verge of collapse...

Syriza has failed miserably ... It refuses to address the problem of the inefficiency of public sector institutions and continues to employ the same despicable cronyist habits of the previous governments by providing jobs to government family members. Its views on higher education (human capital remains Greece's most vital resource) are counterproductive and have already alienated the bulk of the academic community in Greece; it seems to have no idea how to boost the economy (apparently, the Syriza government has yet to decide whether it wants to run a capitalist or a socialist economy!); and its diplomacy and negotiation skills have proven not merely insufficient but outright incompetent.

It is very hard to predict what will happen next...

But its not hard to know what happened next for self proclaimed Marxist Economic Professor and former Syriza Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis .

He quit and rode of into the sunset on his motorcycle with his wife, the multimillionaire, on the back...

Pity that the Greek people have no such option...

Uno

 

[fskimospy]

Greece gets booted from the EU.

As always, the proggie position is 100% correct - but only for other people's money. Point of order here - it was never pointed out to me how stupid was this position, you merely asserted it was stupid. If loaning more money to Greece is a wise investment, then it's a wise investment, period.

I sincerely hope you aren't in charge of anyone's finances because you don't appear to understand how investment works. More money to Greece CAN be a wise investment, but it largely depends on what other actors do. If you invest alone, it would be insufficient to change Greece's trajectory and would be a waste of money. If other countries invest, it wouldn't be.

It is most certainly not just a wise investment no matter what. Therefore, what you said was stupid so long as you have a basic understanding of investment.

As far as plenty of people arguing that Greece is going to pay back all its debts in full, who exactly is arguing that? All I hear is that the Greek debt is already unsustainable and must be cut, in addition to new loans. Paying back half of what one owes is NOT paying one's debt in full, even if the lender agrees to take something rather than nothing. And it should be axiomatic that if Greece cannot pay back its current loans, it isn't going to pay back additional loans either.

One small bright spot for the Greek people - the EC bank agreed to maintain "minimal liquidity" for Greek banks until Sunday, the new new deadline for Greece to submit a proposal more palatable than "gimme!".

Germany is arguing that.