Greece about to default

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
How did austerity work out for Ireland?

I'm guessing that because it was absolutely successful on all accounts you would rather just ignore it.

It worked out horribly, why do you ask?

Catastrophic decline in GDP:



Huge increase in debt/GDP ratio:



FEEL THE SUCCESS EVERYONE.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
Ireland ran the biggest deficit and got the biggest growth.

I guess in your mind that proves that austerity works

And before that their growth was horrible as I just showed.

Remember too, that's their POSTER CHILD for austerity's success. If that's the best they can do, what's the worst?
 

TheSlamma

Diamond Member
Sep 6, 2005
7,625
5
81
Do you really think raising retirement age and keeping more old people working will help when there are not enough jobs by 30% already? All you are going to get is even higher youth unemployment, which will translate to enormous lost economic potential for decades to come.
5th time, what will the youth do though.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
They had 7.5% unemployment prior to the crisis. I guess everyone else was making gyros
Austerity has failed spectacularly. Just read IMF's own projections from 2010 and compare to reality. Wrong by 30% of GDP, because they assumed austerity was free and wouldn't destroy a country's economy.

Stop borrowing money and creditor demands for austerity are moot. The Greeks have asked for different terms and the (potential) lenders have said no, so you either accept the creditors' terms or don't take the money. Why you keep on persisting that the Greeks or you want is at all relevant is amusing, but at some point you have to recognize that the people in the subordinate position have no leverage whatsoever now that the primary creditors have called the default bluff.
 

chowderhead

Platinum Member
Dec 7, 1999
2,633
263
126
Ireland ran the biggest deficit and got the biggest growth.

I guess in your mind that proves that austerity works

I think Ireland's financial problems were their major banks got into trouble with real estate investments. The Irish government nationalized the banks and made the foreign investors take a haircut. I don't think they can do that here since the Greek government owe money and they owe money to governments and central banks.
 

TheSlamma

Diamond Member
Sep 6, 2005
7,625
5
81
I think Ireland's financial problems were their major banks got into trouble with real estate investments. The Irish government nationalized the banks and made the foreign investors take a haircut. I don't think they can do that here since the Greek government owe money and they owe money to governments and central banks.
c'mon man, buzzwords!
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
Ireland ran the biggest deficit and got the biggest growth.

I guess in your mind that proves that austerity works

And yet the Irish are the leading proponent of continuing the Greek austerity program and held their own experience out as an example to the Greeks.

Yet as eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels on Monday to press Greece to seek an extension to its €172bn bailout, Irish ministers seem insistent that Athens complete every last yard of its gruelling austerity programme just as the Irish did. “They’re saying, ‘We’ve done our homework, it wasn’t easy, and part of the homework is keeping Germany happy, and the Greeks are being unrealistic’,” says Tom Healy, director of the Nevin Economic Research Institute.


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dd4511a6-b3a9-11e4-9449-00144feab7de.html#axzz3fKrkmgeV

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...-have-to-accept-certain-constraints-1.2101577
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
I am not sure how anyone can argue that Ireland has experienced same austerity as Greece after seeing the charts above.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Funny how that happens when you actually *pay your debts* which is what Ireland did a few years after taking out their IMF loan and following austerity. Debt repayment, an amazing concept the Greeks might try to learn.

Ireland repays billions in IMF loans years early.

Ireland ran a 7% deficit from 2011 to 2014. It was racking up debts, not repaying them. Which is what a country is supposed to do in a middle of a recession, because if it does austerity, it will go into a depression and never repay anything.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
More Western propaganda. Our boots on the ground reporter AtenRa says everything is cool.

read again,

So to sum up, we increased % of taxes, we increased the tax revenue % over GDP and we still produce less tax revenue because the economy is shrinking and people doesnt have money to give to pay their taxes.

When you people understand that, you will see why Greeks voted NO, why we are asking for no more austerity measures to be taken but we want reforms that will help the economy and thus will help to increase tax revenue.


The real problem now is not that people evade paying taxes when they have money, the problem is that middle class people have become poor, poor have become poorer and all those people dont have money to pay an increased taxation. People and EU countries should understand that we are in the beginning of a humanitarian crisis here in Greece and there must be a program change to resolve the situation.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
30,967
8,688
136
Yes I honestly believe that. That's why there are binding treaties. You can suspend member states for human rights violations but not kick them out. The unanimous agreement of all member states is a requirement for amendment of membership provisions.
But werepossums sure of it. That must trump the treaties that bind Europe together.
 

Ns1

No Lifer
Jun 17, 2001
55,414
1,574
126
problem, what problem?

:whiste:

I was doing my business all the week that past and i will be able on Monday. The bank system was working last week, i could do my business through the net. I could move money from my accounts to others and vice versa. I could buy and sell as usual.

What people forget is that a vast majority of Greek people have moved their money out of the country. That is one of the reasons Banks have liquidity problems. But that also means lots of them can still do business using their foreign accounts.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
You're obviously an expert on this, why don't you explain to us the process for unilaterally expelling a country from the EU and when that process can occur?
Can't - doesn't exist yet. And it won't exist unless and until there is a need.

It's down to 50% now, so they are "only" wasting half of their young people's potential. Quite the achievement for austerity
Perhaps you'll be so good as to explain how 50% youth unemployment and fiscally sound is worse than 55% youth unemployment and dog-ass broke, unable to meet one's basic domestic obligations or even allow citizens to withdraw more than a hundred euros of their own money without someone else furnishing that money.

Yes I honestly believe that. That's why there are binding treaties. You can suspend member states for human rights violations but not kick them out. The unanimous agreement of all member states is a requirement for amendment of membership provisions.
So if Greece began exporting hundreds of suicide bombers to other EU nations, there would be literally nothing these nations could do to restrict Greeks' freedom of movement?
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
And before that their growth was horrible as I just showed.

Remember too, that's their POSTER CHILD for austerity's success. If that's the best they can do, what's the worst?
You persist in pretending that austerity is a switch one flips or doesn't, depending on one's favored economic theory. That is simply untrue. I am all for Greece spending more than they take in to get out of recession. The problem is that, unlike Ireland (and Spain, and Portugal), Greece has not made the systemic reforms necessary to convince lenders to loan them more money. Austerity is more than simply spending less, it's changing the socioeconomic system to be sustainable.

The European nations want Greece to be a successful nation. Everyone here at AT wants Greece to be a successful nation. But unless Greece comes up with something better than "you forgive the money we promised to pay back and give us tens of billions more until a miracle happens", loaning more money to Greece is simply throwing good money after bad. Europe cannot save Greece unless Greece helps save itself, and so far that has not happened to a sufficient extent. And that's not my analysis, it's the analysis of the IMF and the EU and the EC, as well as private investors. You can froth and foam as much as you please about austerity, but the fact is that Greece has not changed enough to make the largely socialist European states comfortable with sending more of their citizens' wealth to Greece.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Can't - doesn't exist yet. And it won't exist unless and until there is a need.


Perhaps you'll be so good as to explain how 50% youth unemployment and fiscally sound is worse than 55% youth unemployment and dog-ass broke, unable to meet one's basic domestic obligations or even allow citizens to withdraw more than a hundred euros of their own money without someone else furnishing that money.

You are comparing a train wreck to a plane wreck and coming to the conclusion that a train wreck is a good thing.
22% overall and 50% youth unemployment for years and counting is catastrophic. Also Spain has been running huge deficit as percent of GDP, so the extent of austerity has not been as bad as Greece.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
You are comparing a train wreck to a plane wreck and coming to the conclusion that a train wreck is a good thing.
22% overall and 50% youth unemployment for years and counting is catastrophic. Also Spain has been running huge deficit as percent of GDP, so the extent of austerity has not been as bad as Greece.
No, I'm coming to the conclusion that a train wreck is less bad than a plane crash. Again, austerity is more than simply spending less, it's changing the socioeconomic system to be sustainable. If Greece can satisfy the rest of the EU nations, many of whom have gone through substantial economic pain, that they are making the changes required to make their system sustainable (self-supporting) over the (reasonably short) long run, then Greece can borrow more money. So far Greece has not done so. Thus Greece has run out of other people's money. There. Is. No. More. Money.

I'd liken it to having two deadbeat brothers-in-law with broken cars, both of whom have borrowed $75,000. One has recently cleaned up, stopped sniffing paint, cut up his credit cards, and gotten a job; in fact, he's paid back $25,000 so he owes you $50,000. The other insists that he has a right to enjoy his life (read: sniffing paint, home shopping, and gaming) in their mom's basement. In fact, he insists that you write off half the debt he isn't paying, in spite of the fact that you've already forgiven $25,000 so he owes you $50,000 as well. The first wants another $1,000 to fix his car so that he can get to his job. The second wants another $1,000 to fix his car because by golly, he's suffered enough. With the first, investing another $1,000 not only seems likely to help him avoid disaster, you might even get your money back. With the second, investing another $1,000 is merely throwing away another $1,000. Now the second brother-in-law may be a hell of guy and the life of the party, but loaning him money is simply giving him money.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Yes that was about wrong info of businesses not being able to operate because of the closing of the banks.

Dont confuse one with the other.
Are you still able to do business electronically, just limited as to how much cash you can withdraw?
 

Turkish

Lifer
May 26, 2003
15,549
1
81
So if Greece began exporting hundreds of suicide bombers to other EU nations, there would be literally nothing these nations could do to restrict Greeks' freedom of movement?

Freedom of movement is a completely different directive. It's subject to public security and public health restrictions. So it's safe to assume they could do something about a member state exporting suicide bombers. I am not sure though.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Are you still able to do business electronically, just limited as to how much cash you can withdraw?

yes, you can move any amount you have within Greece electronically. You can only withdraw 60 Euros per day from the ATMs.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Freedom of movement is a completely different directive. It's subject to public security and public health restrictions. So it's safe to assume they could do something about a member state exporting suicide bombers. I am not sure though.
But that was my point - that if Greeks having "freedom of movement" within the EU becomes a problem as WelshBloke implied it would be, then that freedom of movement could and would be curtailed. Nations are generally not suicidal, and treaties which prove to be truly problematic can and will be scrapped.

yes, you can move any amount you have within Greece electronically. You can only withdraw 60 Euros per day from the ATMs.
While that is obviously devastating to small, cash-only entrepreneurs, doesn't that actually solve some problems with Greeks dodging taxes? Assuming Tsipras is so minded, anyway, because electronic transfers inherently leave trails and thus people running cash-only businesses to dodge taxes are pretty much busted as long as Greece's leadership has the political will to enforce the tax laws.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
30,967
8,688
136
Can't - doesn't exist yet. And it won't exist unless and until there is a need.

Lol. Right so your "cheaply" option is to renegotiate the founding agreements of the EU and get all the member states to agree on them?



So if Greece began exporting hundreds of suicide bombers to other EU nations, there would be literally nothing these nations could do to restrict Greeks' freedom of movement?

Well if the Greek state was doing it I guess that would spark off a war otherwise it would be like the IRA in the UK. We didn't stop all Irish people's freedom of movement, you just up security and target the bombers.

But let's face it when your thinking is getting this ridiculous it's probably a sign that you're in a hole and that you need to stop digging.
 
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