There are two variables that matter here: price and performance. Power use cuts in favor of the 960, VRAM cuts against it, but ultimately, it's going to sell based on price and performance.
If the leaked performance benchmarks are in the ballpark, we're looking at a card that would be a huge hit at $180 for a 2GB model, and a decent seller at $200. Then Nvidia could come in with a 4GB model at $230 and make another segment of the market happy.
Say what you will about the 290 vs. 970 today...the 970 was severely under-priced at launch, leading to extremely low inventory for months after release. I doubt Nvidia, its board partners, or the resellers are interested in repeating that. Especially the resellers - the 970 presented serious marketing problems for them. Point being, Nvidia simply isn't going to be as aggressive this time around.
1. Price/performance on a launch review can't account that future games like Dying Light, Evolve, The Division, Witcher 3, etc. may use more than 2Gb of VRAM for Ultra textures. Textures is one of the key IQ areas that PC has over consoles and an area where often a reduction in this IQ settings results in a severe drop in graphics quality. Having seen what happened to 5870 1Gb, 8800GT 256, 8800GTS320MB, 470/480/570/580 1.28-1.5GB, we know from past experience that buying a card near the edge of minimum required VRAM to keep for 2-3 years is very dangerous.
2. Looking ahead, the Price/performance of a 960 would be worse than R9 290 at $250, because R9 290 would have the extra VRAM and Mantle which will all help in future games.
But I expect the same typical story from reviewers: ignoring R9 200 series on regular sales, downplaying how good R9 290 is by again stating that it runs hot and loud based on some reference card they bought at launch.
I mean look back at your own post history over the years. There is no way the old you would have recommended anyone save $40-60 to lose 20-30% performance and accept half the VRAM because of power usage. After Kepler, it's like NV's marketing REALLY got into the heads of most gamers it seems. It seems the first thing gamers look at are perf/watt not price/performance or performance gained vs. timeframe.
I remember this forum used to gush over a GTX460 OC that used gobbles of power, 200W! when a stock 6870 was as fast. How many people bought a 460 and overclocked it to destroy Perf/watt of a 460 against a 5850?! That all didn't matter back then, nor did perf/watt at all matter during HD4000-6000 series, until Kepler came out.
This forum went from largely ignoring power usage and Perf/watt in favour of performance and overclocking during Fermi to almost entirely ignoring longevity, price/performance, VRAM and absolute performance today in favour of perf/watt as the end-all-be-all metric of some sorts.
I guess I mean I will just out this in perspective:
970 = $330-350 with 6% more performance over a $250 290
980 = $550-600 with 20-25% more performance over R9 290X.
Those GM204 cards people gush over but a $240-260 R9 290 with 20%+ performance over a $180-200 960 2GB is not recommended? The double standards when it comes to value and Perf/watt on this forum have become obvious.