(GURU3D RUMOR) AMD Polaris 10 GPU To Offer Near 980 Ti Performance For 299 USD?

[lilltesaito]

From the statements lately from AMD, I think this is a reasonable set of expectations for now. Polaris 10 looks like it will offer 390X-ish performance in a much, much better power envelope.

I agree, I think it will be 390X/980 performance and lower power usage. I wish it would be 980ti or better, that just seem to good to be true.

I am really looking forward to the laptop gpu, will be looking at a new gaming laptop shortly. The idea of Freesync and powerful low power DX12 GPU, sounds really good.

 

[Vesku]

If Polaris 10 is 232mm2 then it will have similar transistor count to Hawaii die. Architecture improvements + FinFet is in the wild and known to have a better clockspeedower curve than 28nm. How does that translate to the top SKU Polaris 10 being basically Hawaii performance and not Hawaii x 1.1-1.3?

Unless we are speculating based on an even smaller die size expectation?

 

[Good_fella]

im gonna regret for asking but please who are those "tons of developers" ?D:
you remind me of the guy that said "nvidia has chips on 8 million cars" D:

http://vrworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/NVDA_VR_VRWorks_Adoption.png

Spoiler

The company’s automotive platforms remain on a sharp upward trajectory, with almost 8 million cars using Nvidia’s technology at present (up from 4.7 million a year ago)

 

[Paul98]

I agree, I think it will be 390X/980 performance and lower power usage. I wish it would be 980ti or better, that just seem to good to be true.

I am really looking forward to the laptop gpu, will be looking at a new gaming laptop shortly. The idea of Freesync and powerful low power DX12 GPU, sounds really good.

Yeah I am thinking the same thing. I can wait for a new desktop till later this year or next year. But I could really use a new gaming laptop.

 

[AtenRa]

If Polaris 10 is 232mm2 then it will have similar transistor count to Hawaii die. Architecture improvements + FinFet is in the wild and known to have a better clockspeedower curve than 28nm. How does that translate to the top SKU Polaris 10 being basically Hawaii performance and not Hawaii x 1.1-1.3?

Unless we are speculating based on an even smaller die size expectation?

Yea, i been saying the same thing for the last month or more. If Polaris 10 is 232mm2, it should even have more transistors than Hawaii. But even with the same transistor budget, adding all the architectural enchantments and the new 14nm process it should have higher performance than Hawaii on 28nm. Especially in DX-12, im confident it could be extremely close to Fiji.

 

[airfathaaaaa]

http://vrworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/NVDA_VR_VRWorks_Adoption.png

Spoiler

The company’s automotive platforms remain on a sharp upward trajectory, with almost 8 million cars using Nvidia’s technology at present (up from 4.7 million a year ago)

i wont bother to debunk again that 8 million cars fud anyway
so 4 engines and some apps great i guess i need to recheck the ton on vocabulary next time

 

[rainy]

Yea, i been saying the same thing for the last month or more. If Polaris 10 is 232mm2, it should even have more transistors than Hawaii. But even with the same transistor budget, adding all the architectural enchantments and the new 14nm process it should have higher performance than Hawaii on 28nm. Especially in DX-12, im confident it could be extremely close to Fiji.

That's my prediction as well.

 

[maddie]

If Polaris 10 is 232mm2 then it will have similar transistor count to Hawaii die. Architecture improvements + FinFet is in the wild and known to have a better clockspeedower curve than 28nm. How does that translate to the top SKU Polaris 10 being basically Hawaii performance and not Hawaii x 1.1-1.3?

Unless we are speculating based on an even smaller die size expectation?

That's the thing.

This alone should equal Hawaii. With architectural improvements we have more than Hawaii, even without a clockspeed increase. Any increase in clockspeed is icing.

 

[Orvogg]

Have you checked current prices?

Cheapest GTX 980TI @$569
Cheapest Fury @$469

el etro, I hope you are correct but why would AMD bring out a Full p10 with 980TI performance and under cut it's own Fury (less performance) by over $100? Especially since Dr. SU, CEO of AMD has repeatedly said she wants AMD to gain image as a premium brand?

I'll stick with Full p10 $499 and Cut p10 @$399.

P.S. Maybe you are correct since the new AMD Radeon Duo Fury X includes a third non-functional FuryX chip. OOPS it MSRP is $1499.

You are correct, had AMD been operating in a market without competition for some time, they would probably set prices closer to that of the more capabale cards. But slated for introduction in the same time frame as P10 is GTX1070, which, based on the 2 last generations of mid range cards, should be about equal to 980ti and cost 300-400 while also carrying the nVidia brand.

Equalling an nVidia card in both price and performance has never won AMD any market shares, so they would have to beat them and beat them bad. Look at 390 vs 970 today, for instance, where 390 is more often the winner, in both performance and price, but still manage to be bested by the 970. Despite all the controversy 'round that card...

 

[Mopetar]

I'm not a shareholder or employee. I don't care about sales. Just the hardware. You?

To some degree market share impacts performance. If you're a developer and most of your customers use a particular brand of GPU, you'll probably devote more resources towards optimizing for it.

In reality the argument falls down, because with so many console ports being released on PC, AMD tends to get a development bump just because they have the hardware in all of the different consoles.

Yea, i been saying the same thing for the last month or more. If Polaris 10 is 232mm2, it should even have more transistors than Hawaii. But even with the same transistor budget, adding all the architectural enchantments and the new 14nm process it should have higher performance than Hawaii on 28nm. Especially in DX-12, im confident it could be extremely close to Fiji.

Although it was a very short and limited demo, we already saw that Polaris 10 is going to be better than Hawaii based on the results of the Hitman demo during their event last month. The performance suggests that it would be around Fury levels of performance, at least for that one game and that particular resolution.

 

[Phynaz]

i wont bother to debunk again that 8 million cars fud

I don't think you know what FUD means.

There is no Fear, Uncertainty or Doubt that Nvidia is doing an all out pursuit of automotive applications for their devices. Nor is there any doubt that it's going to be an absolutely huge market.

Dave Pahl, vice president of investor relations, noted that market analysts estimate that there is probably around $350 in semiconductor content, on average, in a new car. “That's a number that's been growing very nicely,” Pahl said in a conference call with analysts following TI’s first quarter report.

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1329560

 

[Adored]

I don't think you know what FUD means.

There is no Fear, Uncertainty or Doubt that Nvidia is doing an all out pursuit of automotive applications for their devices. Nor is there any doubt that it's going to be an absolutely huge market.

Dave Pahl, vice president of investor relations, noted that market analysts estimate that there is probably around $350 in semiconductor content, on average, in a new car. “That's a number that's been growing very nicely,” Pahl said in a conference call with analysts following TI’s first quarter report.

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1329560

You said recently there were over 40 chips in a car.

At under $9 per chip on average that goes some way to explaining why Tegra continues to lose Nvidia money year after year.

Where is the money coming from? It's already hit commodity prices, when did Nvidia ever win at commodity pricing? Serious question.

 

[xpea]

so 4 engines and some apps great i guess i need to recheck the ton on vocabulary next time

http://www.roadtovr.com/nvidia-gtc-2016-conference-makes-virtual-reality-a-top-topic-this-april/
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/04/07/virtual-reality-2/
36 VR companies were exhibiting at GTC2016 last month

BTW what did you expect from a emerging technology with products just hitting the shelves now ? Plus Nvidia is well know for its great developer support with 10 times more people/money than AMD... Green team policy "let's make it open source and pray that others will do the job for us" doesn't work.
and finally what AMD is doing more than Nvidia except powerpoints and PR talks ?

 

[xpea]

At under $9 per chip on average that goes some way to explaining why Tegra continues to lose Nvidia money year after year.

Where is the money coming from? It's already hit commodity prices, when did Nvidia ever win at commodity pricing?

Nvidia is chasing the autonomous car revolution that needs huge software investment and that will bring high ASP, not the commodity MCUs

 

[Adored]

Nvidia is chasing the autonomous car revolution that needs huge software investment and that will bring high ASP, not the commodity MCUs

I agree on that but that isn't part of this "40 chip, 8 million cars" thing we've been hearing about.

There are completely separate really. AI is quite exciting and Nvidia looks well placed right now, but I'm not convinced self driving cars are a reality in the next 10 years. Will Google be interested in buying a boatload of P100's for research anyway? Possibly.

 

[moonbogg]

OKAY who are the smart guys who voted the last option? Who would do such a thing?

 

[Kenmitch]

OKAY who are the smart guys who voted the last option? Who would do such a thing?

Guilty

At least I was the 1st one. The others are copy cats!

 

[moonbogg]

Guilty

At least I was the 1st one. The others are copy cats!

My gawd. I have to admit I didn't see this coming. Not from you. D:

 

[Despoiler]

I agree on that but that isn't part of this "40 chip, 8 million cars" thing we've been hearing about.

There are completely separate really. AI is quite exciting and Nvidia looks well placed right now, but I'm not convinced self driving cars are a reality in the next 10 years. Will Google be interested in buying a boatload of P100's for research anyway? Possibly.

There is no way self driving cars have a prayer's chance in h*** for any company. "Here sign this waiver that our software is potentially buggy and can kill you if it screws up, but you can't sue us even if you live." Not happening. JHH is an idiot if he thinks it can be a business expansion. My cynical thought is that he is building these tertiary products because if AMD goes under Nvidia will get broken up. Government splits off all of these side projects and leaves the core intact.

 

[moonbogg]

Yeah, I don't care how amazing Polaris or Pascal actually are. I'd still never trust either of them to drive my ass to the super market.

 

[kraatus77]

Yeah, I don't care how amazing Polaris or Pascal actually are. I'd still never trust either of them to drive my ass to the super market.

LOL

 

[airfathaaaaa]

I don't think you know what FUD means.

There is no Fear, Uncertainty or Doubt that Nvidia is doing an all out pursuit of automotive applications for their devices. Nor is there any doubt that it's going to be an absolutely huge market.



http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1329560

actually i do since they claim 8 million cars as i posted (quoting you on the other thread) the number simply dont add up not even to a million especially if we remove the concept cars
audi installs a good ICE only on a7/a8 and those dont have any mass sales around
and vw golf since 2013 that nvidia provide them with a chip havent even reached a million of sales..(both us and europe )
so yeah its another blatand lie from the company that just lies for everything D:

 

[Samwell]

actually i do since they claim 8 million cars as i posted (quoting you on the other thread) the number simply dont add up not even to a million especially if we remove the concept cars
audi installs a good ICE only on a7/a8 and those dont have any mass sales around
and vw golf since 2013 that nvidia provide them with a chip havent even reached a million of sales..(both us and europe )
so yeah its another blatand lie from the company that just lies for everything D:

Sorry, but you just have absolutely no idea in how many cars tegra is nowadays. They sell easy over 1 million per year alone in the whole Volkswagen company (containing Audi, Skoda, Seat and so on). Audi is using it since 2012 down till A3, VW in Golf, Passat, Skoda Octavia and so on since 2013. Second big customer is Honda, which is also a lot per year. Looking at their car revenue you clearly see, that they are selling them now in quite a few cars. But anyway Infotainment will never help Tegra to get out of the red numbers, autonomous cars are more interesting.

 

[airfathaaaaa]

Sorry, but you just have absolutely no idea in how many cars tegra is nowadays. They sell easy over 1 million per year alone in the whole Volkswagen company (containing Audi, Skoda, Seat and so on). Audi is using it since 2012 down till A3, VW in Golf, Passat, Skoda Octavia and so on since 2013. Second big customer is Honda, which is also a lot per year. Looking at their car revenue you clearly see, that they are selling them now in quite a few cars. But anyway Infotainment will never help Tegra to get out of the red numbers, autonomous cars are more interesting.

http://www.nvidia.com/object/automotive-partner-innovation.html
with a very basic google search
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2012/09/28/the-next-volkswagen-golf-now-with-tegra-2/
this is when nvidia got into vw itself
aka the next golf was the 2013 model (also no nvidia isnt on every vw car as you know and they dont even sell it as a basic package if you had bothered to see the paris motor show you would understand what optional means
in case of honda nvidia is powering the optional full ICE system only (as it should) and many concept cars(and also only from late 15 and after
in case of mercedes is even worse since they are powering mostly conecept cars and very few cars from s500 and above (with anything lower from those on being optional )
the audi connect which is also optional as it sold only on a7/a8 which are rare class anyways since there is s class
the idrive on bmw changed from being a in house development to nvidia on early 2015(not to be confused with the connect since its optional on anything below series 7)
and those are the best selling cars from 2013 till now (aston martin alfa romeo and stuff i wont even consider them because they dont have in total not even 200k sales on us and europe)

i suggest you dig a bit and see the sales also i suggest for you to see the feature list for every car(not a hard thing to do tho) and you will see how difficult it is to actually have 8 million cars with optional items on them while the basic ones are 1/6 of those...its just misleading as always no one is giving an ICE system with a basic package unless its a premium car which 99% of the cars you said they sold its not
so yeah its a lie

 

[Mahigan]

If you're a gamer...you're not going to care about self driving cars. You might care a bit about HPC, but not much and Deep Learning is something you wouldn't give a rats arse about.

So when folks mention, but but NVIDIA are heading into cars, I immediately realize that they're NVIDIA fans. Because the only reason one would mention this is if they have some sort of soft spot for NVIDIA as a corporation.

What's good for NVIDIAs financials, isn't something I care about (or AMDs for that matter). What's good for gamers, on the other hand, is something I care about as a gamer.

VR will push scalability and a need for more scalable designs and architectures not just on the hardware front but on the API and game engine front. This is good for gamers. It doesn't matter if you're a console' mobile or PC gamer due to the fact that modern APIs allow for portability between all segments of games, applications and software in general.

With AMD having locked in the console business, where an overwhelming amount of the market is to be found, coupled with Vulkan/DX12 means that AMD have locked in the PC business as well. People who reference NVIDIAs last big hurrah (80% market share of PC discrete DX11 GPUs) haven't realized or refuse to realize what is happening.

What is happening is that AMD is rising, far from being pushed into bankruptcy, they will instead dominate the gaming market in short order. I figure that 2016 is the beginning of their rise, 2017 is the establishment of their superiority and 2018 is the end game with Navi.

I've been saying this since August of 2015 or so. It sounded crazy back then but today...I think that more and more people are realizing that this is most likely what will occur.

By the end of 2017, we won't recognize Intel, AMD or NVIDIA. I keep saying it but just you wait and see... It's the truth.

Polaris 10 doesn't need to be high end because the software (games) are already tailored for it. NVIDIA, on the other hand, need big GPUs in order to keep competing and we're going to see this more and more as we head towards 2018.