Happy 8 billion people day!

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
59,258
13,875
136
Not too shabby, considering years ago Bad Religion released "Ten in 2010", based on the notion we'd have 10 billion by 2010. Not sure what the source of that projection was.

 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,488
3,981
126
Not too shabby, considering years ago Bad Religion released "Ten in 2010", based on the notion we'd have 10 billion by 2010. Not sure what the source of that projection was.
Hmm, that intrigued me. A simple graph of the world's population LOOKS like it would be exponentially growing if you went back to ~1995 when that song was being worked on. See here:


But, if you look closely at the last 4 years or so in the graph above, the exponential fit isn't working any more. Exponential growth doesn't really occur ever in any situation (exponential ignores the obvious such as any limitations in space or resources). What really occurs is S-shaped growth (sigmoid-shaped) that LOOKS like exponential growth if you zoom in to just a part of the curve. But, if you zoom out, S-shaped growth is limited by food, resources, war, misery, etc. People using exponential growth models are just being lazy and ignoring the full effects.

Here is what really happened compared to that exponential trendline from the graph above.


But still that doesn't answer your question. Even using that false exponential growth, the 10 billion number wasn't supposed to happen until at least 2024.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,231
5,807
126
I'd light some candles, but the CO2 produced would be catastrophic. ;DebbieDowner;
 

pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
9,142
5,089
136
2050 is when we hit the reset button.


 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,707
5,462
136
COVID-19 was suppose to help out in cutting back the population but we have great science now to make sure it doesn't happen. The more the merrier !

It's AMAZING how much mis-information we grew up with about things like overpopulation! Want to support 29 billion people? No problem. 58 billion people? No big deal:


There's so much anxiety-driven fake news out there! For example, physically, the United States is 2% BIGGER than China, and yet China supports & sustains a population of 1.4 billion people, whereas America only has 330 million people. Some interesting facts:

* We currently produce enough food, today, right now, to feed 10 billion people, and we only have 8 billion people
* Those 8 billion people only inhabit about 10% of the planet & only about 14.6% of the world's land area has been modified by humans
* Worldwide, we lose about 25k to hunger every day (roughly 9 million people per year). Amartya Sen said no democracy, with a free press, has ever had major famines. I don't have concrete data to link, but it appears that in America, we lose roughly 100 people a year due to starvation, primarily due to anorexia.

Globally, there is no food shortage. We are not short on resources, not by a LONG shot. We have global shipping systems. We have wealth. We have foreign aid. The biggest issue simply boils down to the misuse of free agency within governments. For example, the 1995 famine in North Korea that killed an estimated 3 million people:


And short-term government decisions, Natsios argued, exacerbated that disaster. In 1995, the regime "triaged" the entire northeast region of the country—in essence, blocking food shipments to that portion of the population in order to ensure subsistence food supplies for the capital Pyongyang, whose support was critical to the government. "No food deliveries were made to that region for 2 ½ years," said Natsios.

"All famines take place in a political context," Natsios said. "And there has been no known famine in a democracy. In a democracy, people take action long before that point. Famines take place under centralized governments precisely because information can be hidden."

We collectively have MORE than enough resources, particularly food, and can grow that exponentially to scale to fit our needs with modern farming technology. We just don't know how to share very well. With 195 countries on earth right now, we can't control everyone or force them to distribute food aid properly within their borders.
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
59,258
13,875
136
It's AMAZING how much mis-information we grew up with about things like overpopulation! Want to support 29 billion people? No problem. 58 billion people? No big deal:


There's so much anxiety-driven fake news out there! For example, physically, the United States is 2% BIGGER than China, and yet China supports & sustains a population of 1.4 billion people, whereas America only has 330 million people. Some interesting facts:

* We currently produce enough food, today, right now, to feed 10 billion people, and we only have 8 billion people
* Those 8 billion people only inhabit about 10% of the planet & only about 14.6% of the world's land area has been modified by humans
* Worldwide, we lose about 25k to hunger every day (roughly 9 million people per year). Amartya Sen said no democracy, with a free press, has ever had major famines. I don't have concrete data to link, but it appears that in America, we lose roughly 100 people a year due to starvation, primarily due to anorexia.

Globally, there is no food shortage. We are not short on resources, not by a LONG shot. We have global shipping systems. We have wealth. We have foreign aid. The biggest issue simply boils down to the misuse of free agency within governments. For example, the 1995 famine in North Korea that killed an estimated 3 million people:






We collectively have MORE than enough resources, particularly food, and can grow that exponentially to scale to fit our needs with modern farming technology. We just don't know how to share very well. With 195 countries on earth right now, we can't control everyone or force them to distribute food aid properly within their borders.
We waste a horrifying amount of food every day
 
Reactions: Captante

DigDog

Lifer
Jun 3, 2011
13,771
2,280
126
just because i hate happiness,

1. "we have food" is incredibly wrong. SUPER wrong.
The nutritional values of our foods have plummeted. Our food resources are infested with microplastics. White, limp battery chickens infested with diseases are killing us.

And, you know, i could stop here. Essentially 99% of our problems are due to overpopulation, many of which are evident, like pollution, some others not evident but still dramatic.
The more humans in the same space, the more we see other humans as competitors, the worse we become as individuals.

2. the human population is not evenly distributed.
That awesome post of incredible positivity that claims "we have a distribution problem" doesn't even consider that getting bales of wheat to africa is not the same as the cost of DRINKING WATER in new york city. The two subjects are as distant as they could be but somehow bundled together to try to paint a picture of a superhuman species flying to the stars.

3. civilizational collapse is *seriously* close.
Somehow in 20 years we've gone from being stable to Doomsday Preppers being sensible. This is indirectly linked to population growth, but directly linked to the geographical distribution of said humans. If you are ONE HUMAN but you are in downtown new york, the functions you can assign yourself are different than if you live in Montana.
Have a read about the Complexity Theory and the linked Bronze Age Collapse. You're born in a highly populated area where humans can no longer exist tied directly to the ground they occupy, e.g. farmers, you will need to integrate with a complex system to survive. The higher the complexity, the more fragile the system and the more cataclysmic the failure.

4. overpopulation breeds hostility.
Humans spontaneously compete for resources.

5. our systems are not designed to withstand overpopulation.

This is the most important one; although you'd think "my banana doesnt taste good" more often, there is no indication that ANY of the systems that we use to maintain complexity are capable of dealing with overpopulation.
An example is: the cost of housing.

We have houses. We have more houses than population, but the distribution of these houses is not linked to the demand for the same houses, it instead goes through a system which has no control measures to prevent someone from buying all the houses since "people will be forced to buy from me".
The systems worked before, but nobody thought "hey, this system we have devised today with 2.9B people obviously isn't gonna work once we hit overpopulation, we should implement some safeguards to make sure once we do, the system doesnt collapse".

Guys, as far as my science takes me, we are fucked. I cannot see a way out of the next 50 years, that doesnt involve being thrown back to the early iron age. Being as reasonable as i can be, the future is grim.

nyyyah, never mind that, let's instead have a laugh and watch some The Newsroom.
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
59,258
13,875
136
just because i hate happiness,

1. "we have food" is incredibly wrong. SUPER wrong.
The nutritional values of our foods have plummeted. Our food resources are infested with microplastics. White, limp battery chickens infested with diseases are killing us.

And, you know, i could stop here. Essentially 99% of our problems are due to overpopulation, many of which are evident, like pollution, some others not evident but still dramatic.
The more humans in the same space, the more we see other humans as competitors, the worse we become as individuals.

2. the human population is not evenly distributed.
That awesome post of incredible positivity that claims "we have a distribution problem" doesn't even consider that getting bales of wheat to africa is not the same as the cost of DRINKING WATER in new york city. The two subjects are as distant as they could be but somehow bundled together to try to paint a picture of a superhuman species flying to the stars.

3. civilizational collapse is *seriously* close.
Somehow in 20 years we've gone from being stable to Doomsday Preppers being sensible. This is indirectly linked to population growth, but directly linked to the geographical distribution of said humans. If you are ONE HUMAN but you are in downtown new york, the functions you can assign yourself are different than if you live in Montana.
Have a read about the Complexity Theory and the linked Bronze Age Collapse. You're born in a highly populated area where humans can no longer exist tied directly to the ground they occupy, e.g. farmers, you will need to integrate with a complex system to survive. The higher the complexity, the more fragile the system and the more cataclysmic the failure.

4. overpopulation breeds hostility.
Humans spontaneously compete for resources.

5. our systems are not designed to withstand overpopulation.

This is the most important one; although you'd think "my banana doesnt taste good" more often, there is no indication that ANY of the systems that we use to maintain complexity are capable of dealing with overpopulation.
An example is: the cost of housing.

We have houses. We have more houses than population, but the distribution of these houses is not linked to the demand for the same houses, it instead goes through a system which has no control measures to prevent someone from buying all the houses since "people will be forced to buy from me".
The systems worked before, but nobody thought "hey, this system we have devised today with 2.9B people obviously isn't gonna work once we hit overpopulation, we should implement some safeguards to make sure once we do, the system doesnt collapse".

Guys, as far as my science takes me, we are fucked. I cannot see a way out of the next 50 years, that doesnt involve being thrown back to the early iron age. Being as reasonable as i can be, the future is grim.

nyyyah, never mind that, let's instead have a laugh and watch some The Newsroom.
It sounds an awful lot like you're just saying the problem is runaway capitalism.
 
Reactions: Captante and Kaido

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,707
5,462
136
We waste a horrifying amount of food every day

Nearly 40% of all food in America is wasted:


The average American family of 4 wastes $1,500 a year in food:


My storage solution is to combat food waste is:

1. Press 'N Seal sticky cling wrap
2. Freeze Ziploc gallon bags
3. Suction-vac sealer
4. Chamber-vac sealer
5. Souper Cubes
6. Deep freezer
7. Insulated lunchbox with freezer packs
8. Pressure canning (for shelf-stable foods)
9. (future) Harvest Right freezer dryer (stores food for up to 25 years!)

My reheating solution is to utilize leftovers & meal-prepped items is:

1. Microwave
2. Hot Logic Mini 120V & 12V heated lunchboxes
3. RoadPro 12V car oven
4. Anova Precision Oven (steam reheating)

The average family of 4 spends around $7,600 a year on food; $4.3k at home & $3.3k on food away from home. The average individual spends $500k in their lifetime on food. 3 meals a day = 21 meals per week = 80+ meals per month = 1,000+ meals per year. So there are some pretty compelling numbers to start thinking about investing in an upgraded home system! I don't have a huge ATOT baller budget, so I use a personal layaway system to save up for stuff over time haha:


They don't really teach this stuff in school (the numbers or a support system to deal with the cost waste), which is why I like to share things like the Instapot & APO, because it makes the job easier & there are so many great tools available that pay for themselves in no time!
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,707
5,462
136
An example is: the cost of housing.

We have houses. We have more houses than population, but the distribution of these houses is not linked to the demand for the same houses, it instead goes through a system which has no control measures to prevent someone from buying all the houses since "people will be forced to buy from me".
The systems worked before, but nobody thought "hey, this system we have devised today with 2.9B people obviously isn't gonna work once we hit overpopulation, we should implement some safeguards to make sure once we do, the system doesnt collapse".

I was pretty shocked to learn about the politics of the housing crisis:

* There are 17 million vacant homes in America
* Which equates to more than 30 empty homes for every American experiencing homelessness


As you mentioned about food, there are some very complicated issues regarding things like accessibility, shipping, etc., but there are all solvable problems with modern technology. The problem is that we don't have the infrastructure setup to deal with solving these problems. For example, I'm a big fan of a capitalistic-socialism hybrid model, with 3 additions to our existing capitalistic society in particular:

1. Universal basic income (63% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck in the wealthiest country in the world)
2. Universal basic healthcare (100 million Americans have medical debt, nearly 1/3 of our country)
3. Universal free education ($1.57 trillion in Federal & private student loans)

America wants to be Number One, but we've outsourced manufacturing overseas & we're getting trounced academically by other countries, and the system is setup financially to make it hard to get ahead & to further your education as an adult. The current political party is trying to knock down some of that existing student loan to help people out, but it already got blocked by a Federal appeals court:


It's easy to say people should just make better financial, healthcare, and educational decisions, but it's pretty hard to get ahead without an education that opens the door to a job that pays well, and people take advantage of it, which has given rise to movements like the anti-work subreddit:


The solution is simple, but the implementation is complex & multi-layered. We don't have a resource problem: we have a distribution problem, which is a sharing problem, which is a free agency problem. Just like how North Korean let millions of people die in the mid-90's, despite foreign aid coming in at sufficient levels to feed their people. But with 195 countries in the world, we can't go in & dictate how to do things for everyone, because we don't even do that very well in America! Even within our own system, getting through the laws, lobbyists, etc. is incredible difficult.

So that free agency root-cause problem really morphs into an infrastructure problem, and bureaucracy is an incredibly difficult thing to change! We have plenty of resources...MORE than enough. Enough food to feed an extra 2 billion people. Enough empty houses for every homeless person in America to live in, and then some. Connecting the dots to solve the problem is where the difficulty lies! We have the problem, we have the stuff to resolve it, but it ain't easy! Especially because there's no single ruling body to dictate solutions & blow through the red tape! (which is probably a good thing based on how human beings behave under centralized command with corruption, lol).

Bottom line is that we have the opportunity & resources to do better.
 
Reactions: Captante

DigDog

Lifer
Jun 3, 2011
13,771
2,280
126
just in case you watched the video above - which is a tv show and not a real video - and you are questioning why this is something worth putting in a tv show to being with.

our CAPACITY to have 8 billion, 9 billion, X billion people survive on the planet is NOT due to ... the planet.

It's due to complexity.

Promoting the idea that "we can feed 10 billion people" without adding "due to an extremely complex, extremely fragile system that is already stressed to seriously terrifying levels" is almost criminal.
Hundreds of years ago, if a village in turkey had a famine, people living in yorkshire wouldn't be affected. This is no longer true. One piece fails, the whole fails.

To explain in a way that you will understand, 2 billion people is a human running. Something goes wrong, you fall, you pick yourself up.

8 billion people is a space shuttle. A single bolt comes loose, panels fall off, attrition burns a hole and the entire fucking thing is pulverized.

.. and this complexity is caused by people .. the more people, the higher exponential increase of complexity, not only does complexity increase, dependancy on complexity increases with increased complexity.

Did i say we are fucked?

If you want to see how many people this planet can sustain after a fall in this complexity word that i keep throwing around, have a look at the population-by-year stats, and look, let's say, at the dark ages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population
eh, let's say, maybe 800 million? a billion? Yeah, maybe a billion.
 

DigDog

Lifer
Jun 3, 2011
13,771
2,280
126
obviously you take this as a joke, but it's more profound than that.

Obligatory "kill the poor" sketch.

Let's hypothesize that we get to the point where we need to kill all the people.
Hypothesis 1: we say "ok, let's kill everyone".

This is a behavioural change. You DECIDE to change your behaviour.

likewise, at one point someone said "hey, we need to scrap all the cars, start walking, reduce the population, stop using plastic, and completely rework our economic system" and that was, for all intents and purposes, a viable solution.

.. but we didn't do that? We didn't action a behavioural change that is substantially easier than, let's say, kill everyone. Why not?

Because humans do not change. Large populations cannot change. We have innately instinctive behavioural machines and we are hard-keyed to do specific things like MAKE BABIES, DEFEAT COMPETITORS, EAT EVERYTHING.

and that's just not gonna happen. It will always be hypothesis 2, "let's just keep doing what we are programmed to do" because as machines designed to do the thing we do, we would sooner die than stop doing the thing we do.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,707
5,462
136
obviously you take this as a joke, but it's more profound than that.

Obligatory "kill the poor" sketch.

Let's hypothesize that we get to the point where we need to kill all the people.
Hypothesis 1: we say "ok, let's kill everyone".

This is a behavioural change. You DECIDE to change your behaviour.

likewise, at one point someone said "hey, we need to scrap all the cars, start walking, reduce the population, stop using plastic, and completely rework our economic system" and that was, for all intents and purposes, a viable solution.

.. but we didn't do that? We didn't action a behavioural change that is substantially easier than, let's say, kill everyone. Why not?

Because humans do not change. Large populations cannot change. We have innately instinctive behavioural machines and we are hard-keyed to do specific things like MAKE BABIES, DEFEAT COMPETITORS, EAT EVERYTHING.

and that's just not gonna happen. It will always be hypothesis 2, "let's just keep doing what we are programmed to do" because as machines designed to do the thing we do, we would sooner die than stop doing the thing we do.

Bro honestly that sounds like depression
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
59,258
13,875
136
Because humans do not change. Large populations cannot change. We have innately instinctive behavioural machines and we are hard-keyed to do specific things like MAKE BABIES, DEFEAT COMPETITORS, EAT EVERYTHING.

and that's just not gonna happen. It will always be hypothesis 2, "let's just keep doing what we are programmed to do" because as machines designed to do the thing we do, we would sooner die than stop doing the thing we do.
Oh, this is such bullshit, we've changed fucking drastically in a few thousand years.
 

clemsyn

Senior member
Aug 21, 2005
531
197
116
We volunteer in a meal program for the homeless in our area and it is crazy how much food the homeless people throw away. Coming from a thirld world country and missing meals while growing up, this behavior makes me cringe
 
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