Hey all. I'm originally from Maui, have family there now, and have loads of friends that have been providing me updates (everyone is safe and okay). Coverage on the news has been very haphazard. I've been letting things play out because saving lives and search and rescue should be a priority but I think it's time for the conversation to start.
There's some great info out there in mass media but more needs to be said on the subject. Here's what I know, followed up by some personal opinions:
Source:
NASA 8/12/2023
FACTS
Weather: winds at the time of the fires were 60mph sustained with 80 mph gusts. The winds were associated with an intense high/low pressure gradient related to Hurricane Dora. Due to recent drought there is a LARGE amount of highly flammable invasive grass roughly coinciding with former sugarcane and pineapple land that has essentially been abandoned for the last 10-35 years (depending on the crop). This agriculture system (now functionally dead but whose echo remains) originates in the 19th century and is very meshed with land grab and power structure dynamics related to the overthrow of the Hawaiian monarchy in 1893 and annexation by the USA.
1) Many fatalities in Lahaina were caused by the fires (duh) but also by downed power lines people couldn't see during the evacuation through the thick smoke. There are multiple confirmed fatalities by electrocution. Total fatalities are at 80 (confirmed) as of 7:20pm HST on 8/12. Most of these discovered fatalities (~60) were in the open. Many more will be found in the rubble.
As of now, only 3% of the rubble has been searched with cadaver dogs. I think these dogs were flown in yesterday morning from the mainland. FEMA is on-site as of today.
To put this into perspective, this is the deadliest US fire in the last 100 years. The death toll will rise significantly as more rubble is searched.
2) None of the emergency sirens (used for tsunamis, earthquakes, and yes, fires) were activated during this emergency. More on this later (opinion).
3) There were 3 concurrent fires that completely overwhelmed Maui Fire Department (MFD) and State of Hawaii Department of Forestry and Wildlife (DOFAW) crews. Lahaina, Pulehu, and Kula. Lahaina essentially burned down (80%+ of structures destroyed ~2,207). 17,000 acres burned.
4) 4,500 people are out of a home/apartment and will need shelter. Some will leave the island, others will stay in hotels and/or AirBnB's (this is still being figured out).
5) Unsafe water alerts are active for the majority of upcountry Maui (the area in the center right of the above image).
OPINION
1) The State of Hawaii and Maui County are completely incompetent (about this and many other things). Maui Electric (MECO) should have shut down the grid when winds picked up this much. Downed lines are almost certainly the cause of much of the ignition sources (needs forensic work to confirm - that will be done soon I'm sure). This is especially true in the context of #3. We've had loads of small fires in the past caused by downed lines. This should not have been a surprise.
2) There is zero excuse for the warning sirens not to have a backup system. This should be true for earthquakes and tsunami contexts as well.
3) The State of Hawaii and land management agencies have known about the invasive grass / fuel problem for decades and have done NOTHING about it. This is inexcusable.
4) Communication has been atrocious. Most of my family has had to rely on accurate and timely updates from social media groups. State and county communication sources have been inaccurate or out of date by the time of publication.
I'm starting to ramble and am realizing we've lost so much. Lahaina was a truly special place. My first date with my wife was there and I have countless memories of walking down front street with my family. It's all gone.
I'll update this post as I receive more information.