High-centered my Ninja 250, literally almost died afterwards, adventurous day.

[vshah]

lol, fuzzy...glad you're ok, but what is with you and going off road in vehicles that have no business there?

 

[Zenmervolt]

Why people ride with black helmets is beyond me.

The MAIDS report was unable to find any statistically significant increase in conspicuity for any helmet color, and as far as motorcycle colors, white motorcycles were actually over-represented in accidents.

There just aren't any clear data to suggest that helmet color has any real effect on accident rates.

As for reflective material on my jacket, etc, if they don't see my headlight and tail-lights, which are much brighter than any reflector, the chances of them noticing a reflector seem pretty small. That said, I do prefer having a reflective strip across the back of my jacket as that can help if I'm off the bike for any reason at night.

ZV

 

[Throckmorton]

The MAIDS report was unable to find any statistically significant increase in conspicuity for any helmet color, and as far as motorcycle colors, white motorcycles were actually over-represented in accidents.

There just aren't any clear data to suggest that helmet color has any real effect on accident rates.

As for reflective material on my jacket, etc, if they don't see my headlight and tail-lights, which are much brighter than any reflector, the chances of them noticing a reflector seem pretty small. That said, I do prefer having a reflective strip across the back of my jacket as that can help if I'm off the bike for any reason at night.

ZV

There may be no statistically significant difference with helmet colors, but less than a statistically significant difference could save your life.

Reflective tape would help because your helmet is much higher than your headlights and taillights. Also, a distinctive color like yellow or neon green is always going to be more noticeable than a normal taillight or headlight color. As for brightness, that depends on how bright the light source is.

 

[Zenmervolt]

There may be no statistically significant difference with helmet colors, but less than a statistically significant difference could save your life.

I think you're unclear on what "statistically significant" means. A difference which is not statistically significant isn't a "small" difference, it's a difference that cannot be said to exist at all.

If you flip a coin 100 times and get 51 heads and 49 tails, the difference between the two results isn't a statistically significant variation from 50/50, which means that it doesn't show any actual bias towards heads.

Reflective tape would help because your helmet is much higher than your headlights and taillights.

That was the same theory behind the Center High-Mount Stop Lamp (CHMSL) in the 1980's. However, studies have shown that the CHMSL had no affect on accident rates.

Also, a distinctive color like yellow or neon green is always going to be more noticeable than a normal taillight or headlight color.

If that were so, the MAIDS report would have been able to clearly show a statistical relationship between helmet color and accident rates.

As for brightness, that depends on how bright the light source is.

Unless they're running aircraft landing lights, I sincerely doubt that any reflector is going to be brighter than the 1,350 lumens of my low-beam headlamp. Even if we're only talking about visibility from the rear, I've yet to see reflectors that were brighter than the running lights of cars in front of me, let alone the brake lights.

ZV

 

[angry hampster]

Careful FFB. Nice job maneuvering out of the traffic incident. Stuff like that happens more than I'm comfortable with..one reason why I don't ride my Harley a whole lot anymore.

Echoing what others have said though, what the hell were you doing riding a sport bike on a B-maintenance road? :lol:

 

[Throckmorton]

I think you're unclear on what "statistically significant" means. A difference which is not statistically significant isn't a "small" difference, it's a difference that cannot be said to exist at all.

If you flip a coin 100 times and get 51 heads and 49 tails, the difference between the two results isn't a statistically significant variation from 50/50, which means that it doesn't show any actual bias towards heads.

You're missing the point, there can be a difference caused by the color that is too small to be statistically discerned. Studies show that pregnant women can drink a little and not cause statistically significant rise in cognitive disabilities in the child. Yet it's a fact that the alcohol causes IQ loss in the fetus, whether that is discernable by the study or not.

That was the same theory behind the Center High-Mount Stop Lamp (CHMSL) in the 1980's. However, studies have shown that the CHMSL had no affect on accident rates.

And for all you know the high mounted brake lights have saved 5 lives or 500 lives, neither of which would be a big enough increase to show up on any statistical analysis.

If that were so, the MAIDS report would have been able to clearly show a statistical relationship between helmet color and accident rates.

I was talking about reflectors not helmet color. The issue is people not noticing the motorcycle, so it stands to reason that a brightly colored strip of reflective material will help to some extent. It could save the lives of you, Fuzzybabybunny, and 100 other people and not produce a statistically significant improvement in an analysis.

Unless they're running aircraft landing lights, I sincerely doubt that any reflector is going to be brighter than the 1,350 lumens of my low-beam headlamp. Even if we're only talking about visibility from the rear, I've yet to see reflectors that were brighter than the running lights of cars in front of me, let alone the brake lights.

ZV

Reflectors won't be brighter than taillights but they'll increase the surface area of light being projected onto the driver's retinas. Which is exactly what motorcycle lack of visibility is about-- visible surface area. Does the MAID study you're talking about even consider reflectors?

 

[jlee]

You're missing the point, there can be a difference caused by the color that is too small to be statistically discerned. Studies show that pregnant women can drink a little and not cause statistically significant rise in cognitive disabilities in the child. Yet it's a fact that the alcohol causes IQ loss in the fetus, whether that is discernable by the study or not.

If it's not discernible, perhaps you could enlighten us how you determined it to be fact....

 

[Throckmorton]

If it's not discernible, perhaps you could enlighten us how you determined it to be fact....

Common sense. More noticeable color is more noticeable

 

[punjabiplaya]

I think he's trying to say that there isn't a difference between 49/51, but if you're that 1, it doesn't matter.

 

[Zenmervolt]

You're missing the point, there can be a difference caused by the color that is too small to be statistically discerned. Studies show that pregnant women can drink a little and not cause statistically significant rise in cognitive disabilities in the child. Yet it's a fact that the alcohol causes IQ loss in the fetus, whether that is discernable by the study or not.

Jlee covered this one.

And for all you know the high mounted brake lights have saved 5 lives or 500 lives, neither of which would be a big enough increase to show up on any statistical analysis.

And for all you know it caused 5 or 500 fatalities, neither of which would be big enough to be statistically significant. See how that works? When there's no evidence that it will help, you can't just assert that it helps in such a small way that the data can't register it; you have no evidence at all to support that assertion and your assertion becomes an irrational statement of faith, not a scientifically-supported position.

If I'm going to go on faith to reduce accidents I might as well get a gremlin bell and glue a little Jesus figure to my handlebars. Hey, they might help after all, it's just that the help they offer is so small that studies can't pick it up.

I was talking about reflectors not helmet color. The issue is people not noticing the motorcycle, so it stands to reason that a brightly colored strip of reflective material will help to some extent. It could save the lives of you, Fuzzybabybunny, and 100 other people and not produce a statistically significant improvement in an analysis.

And my grandfather's pocketknife that I carry could be keeping elephants away, after all, I've never seen an elephant while I was carrying the pocketknife.

"Could" and "does" are very different things and without evidence to support "does", "could" is always nothing more than a matter of faith. The simple fact is that the best studies we have show no differences among color choices beyond what would be expected by randomness.

Reflectors won't be brighter than taillights but they'll increase the surface area of light being projected onto the driver's retinas. Which is exactly the reason motorcycles are less visible-- surface area. Does the MAID study you're talking about even consider reflectors?

MAIDS does not appear to have specifically addressed reflectors, but also makes no suggestion for type of clothing which indicates that they saw no meaningful difference in conspicuity among clothing types, at least some of which must have included reflectors.

Remember, the most common motorcycle accidents involve cars violating the motorcycle's right of way from the front of the motorcycle. motorcycles are struck from the rear in only 2% of all accidents. Increasing conspicuity is far better served by adding additional lights on the front of the motorcycle than by adding reflectors.

ZV

 

[Zenmervolt]

I think he's trying to say that there isn't a difference between 49/51, but if you're that 1, it doesn't matter.

If you're that 1, it's because of random chance, not because of increased visibility.

Are this many people really this bad at statistics?

ZV

 

[madeuce]

Are this many people really this bad at statistics?

ZV

I heard 99% of statistics are made up anyway.

 

[theApp]

Gah, fuck me. At what point do you say that riding is just not worth the risk?

BTW, I think I'm going to spend some money on brighter headlights and the ones that strobe.

Depends on the person, but I'd say when I'm killed doing it. Also, thumbs up on riding that road, I love seeing that type of action on a sportbike.

 

[Throckmorton]

Remember, the most common motorcycle accidents involve cars violating the motorcycle's right of way from the front of the motorcycle. motorcycles are struck from the rear in only 2% of all accidents. Increasing conspicuity is far better served by adding additional lights on the front of the motorcycle than by adding reflectors.

ZV

Is there a study proving that adding lights to the front of a motorcycle produces a statistically significant reduction in accidents?

 

[fuzzybabybunny]

lol, fuzzy...glad you're ok, but what is with you and going off road in vehicles that have no business there?

I like the look of roadsters more but I like driving off-road better? So I buy the square peg and smash it into the round hole. I works alright so far.

BTW, some damages on my 1 month old Ninja (1700 miles):

Right side fairing scratched. A lot.
Tip of the metal brake lever snapped off. Not bent, but snapped.
Lost a screw for one of the plastic pieces.
Dust everywhere. Good deal in chain.
Still need to examine underbody to make sure frame or exhaust isn't crimped.

I saw a sparkling new 2010 Ninja 250 today on the road. It was pretty.

 

[Throckmorton]

If you're that 1, it's because of random chance, not because of increased visibility.

Are this many people really this bad at statistics?

ZV

You're the one who's bad at statistics. It's a fallacy to assume that a statistically insignificant difference is the same as a no difference.

 

[fuzzybabybunny]

Jlee covered this one.



And for all you know it caused 5 or 500 fatalities, neither of which would be big enough to be statistically significant. See how that works? When there's no evidence that it will help, you can't just assert that it helps in such a small way that the data can't register it; you have no evidence at all to support that assertion and your assertion becomes an irrational statement of faith, not a scientifically-supported position.

If I'm going to go on faith to reduce accidents I might as well get a gremlin bell and glue a little Jesus figure to my handlebars. Hey, they might help after all, it's just that the help they offer is so small that studies can't pick it up.



And my grandfather's pocketknife that I carry could be keeping elephants away, after all, I've never seen an elephant while I was carrying the pocketknife.

"Could" and "does" are very different things and without evidence to support "does", "could" is always nothing more than a matter of faith. The simple fact is that the best studies we have show no differences among color choices beyond what would be expected by randomness.



MAIDS does not appear to have specifically addressed reflectors, but also makes no suggestion for type of clothing which indicates that they saw no meaningful difference in conspicuity among clothing types, at least some of which must have included reflectors.

Remember, the most common motorcycle accidents involve cars violating the motorcycle's right of way from the front of the motorcycle. motorcycles are struck from the rear in only 2% of all accidents. Increasing conspicuity is far better served by adding additional lights on the front of the motorcycle than by adding reflectors.

ZV

Any brighter headlights you can recommend?

 

[Throckmorton]

I think one reason motorcycles are prone to people driving in front of them is that the single headlight makes distance perception much harder. With 2 headlights on an approaching car, your brain automatically figures the distance based on how far apart the headlights appear to be.

If you already had your high beam on, will adding brightness really help? Obviously it won't hurt so it seems like a mod you might as well do.

The flashing effect really makes sense to me, because it increases noticeability and makes it clear that it's a motorcycle approaching. Other than that, I think adding colored lights would help.

Look at the amber marker lights
http://www.rallylights.com/SearchResult.aspx?CategoryID=1073

 

[foghorn67]

Please take a statistics class folks. I don't expect everyone to become statistician, but it will make a huge difference in your life when trying to make an educated decision.
After reading this thread, it will be a huge, huge difference.

 

[MJinZ]

Riding down HWY 1 between Big Sur and Carmel. Two lane road, I'm going north traveling @ 45mph 2 seconds behind a column of cars. I have my brights on, it's somewhat foggy and dim outside, and I'm riding closer to the center of the road (left side of my lane). Suddenly a truck going southbound runs straight across my lane in front of me to get off into a side street. No blinkers, no warning, no slowing down. All I had time for was wedging myself between him and the car behind him, almost straddling the center line. I came within 2 feet of clipping his rear and 2 feet from crashing head on into the guy going straight behind him. If I had been riding in the center or the right of my lane, I would not be posting this right now. When we passed each other I had the sickening realization that I just avoided a very real and instant death at 90mph combined speed due to a driver who wasn't paying attention.

Earlier that day I drove off into a secluded side road of HWY 1, and it was a very very rugged 15 miles. Big rocks, very steep, all dirt, and huge potholes and channels that swallowed my tires whole. Took a slow spill after swallowing one of these channels, and the bike got high-centered between two of them after picking it up. No traction to motor out, so I had to wait for a couple of guys passing along to push me out. Very hairy ride.

http://fuzzybabybunny.smugmug.com/M...-Sur-Bike-Trip/13665670_rD8Cx#997809751_ceJSE

All I read here is that newbie rider stupidly does not realize other drivers on the road are fucktards and should keep balls tucked away in purse before getting entrail-plastered the next the time he goes into fuzzybunnydaydreaming mode.

 

[simonizor]

People who don't look out for motorcycles suck. Glad to hear your ok.

You're f'in crazy for driving your rocket on that type of terrain, though. Not only is it not going to control very well, but it's also not designed for that at all so you might end up doing some damage to it.

 

[madeuce]

Any brighter headlights you can recommend?

I've got DDM tuning HIDs in my truck. The 35 watt bulbs are brighter than stock and a very pure white color at 5k. 55 watt kit would be insanely bright I reckon.

They are inexpensive, easy to install. So far I've gotten about 20,000 miles of driving on mine in my truck and no problems. I was worried how they would hold up to the bad roads my truck sees on the way to and from work, but they've worked great.

I'll be putting a set on my bike as soon as a stock bulb goes out.

 

[Zenmervolt]

Is there a study proving that adding lights to the front of a motorcycle produces a statistically significant reduction in accidents?

The Hurt Report shows that additional lighting to the front of a motorcycle is even more effective at increasing conspicuity than using a headlight modulator (a device which cycles the headlight at about 4 Hz).

However, there is currently no data specifically showing that increased conspicuity actually reduces accident rates.

ZV

 

[Zenmervolt]

You're the one who's bad at statistics. It's a fallacy to assume that a statistically insignificant difference is the same as a no difference.

What I have said is that the differences in all studies can be attributed to random chance and that there are no data to support your assertions. This is not the same as categorically stating that there is no difference.

A statistically-insignificant difference does not, as you seem to be claiming, mean that a difference exists but is merely very small. A statistically-insignificant difference means that the difference cannot be verified to exist in the first place because the variance is within the expected range for random variations.

Is it possible that more specific studies will show that such a difference exists? Absolutely. But as of right now there is no evidence that helmet color or the wearing of reflectors has any affect on accident rates. If your personal hunch is that it's helpful, then by all means wear a neon orange helmet and reflectors, but don't pretend that it's anything more than a guess or that people wearing black helmets are necessarily incurring some excess risk.

ZV

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

No traction to motor out, so I had to wait for a couple of guys passing along to push me out. Very hairy ride.

http://fuzzybabybunny.smugmug.com/M...-Sur-Bike-Trip/13665670_rD8Cx#997809751_ceJSE

This is the clearest evidence yet that you should not be riding. If you can't move a 250 on your own, give it up. In 30 years of riding, I've needed help pushing a bike exactly once and, that was a full dress 1200.