I think if big vega is 10% faster and is priced right it wouldn't necessarily be a failure. But I agree, they are a full cycle behind Nvidia at this point.
That's just dreaming though.
I mean, what price point does Big Vega have to be at where you'd be happy with it? I'll still get it probably, but I'll cry myself to sleep afterwards. Literally, I will cry myself to sleep, because I know Nvidia will have a card ready.
So what price does it make us happy? 10% faster for $600? Then when does it have to be out by? March? February? April? January?
It's an extremely hard question to answer given the time frame it can have until Nvidia will have a midrange competitor out again. What if Volta is out in April? June? GTX 1070 launched in June.
Even if it launches in January, that's 5 months of market superiority, until it's beat out buy a GTX 2070... While the GTX 1070/1080 stood UNCONTESTED for 7 months (under a January release scenario.... even worse as it gets longer)?
It's just hard....
One thing many of the AMD proponents miss is the time factor. They cite a card was a great choice, while ignoring time on market.
This is what makes Nvidia cards such an amazing choice at the high end. Time on market as the fastest card on the market with ZERO alternative. It's honestly amazing how much people trash talk Nvidia and those who pay the premium for such cards when there is a clear time value of owning the card (time value of money applied to time value of owning the card vs not owning a card and therefore not being able to game at that fidelity level(not sure if that's clear.)). That's the main reason I'm upset I didn't buy a GTX 980Ti. I wanted it at release when I saw the MSI GTX 980Ti card benched and didn't purchase and paid dearly for it in the TIME I could have enjoyed the card.
Purchasing Nvidia at the high end has a lot to do with Time, and those who are willing to spend that much also most likely put a higher value on the time of owning the card.
That's also what makes 2016 SO WEAK for High end gaming. There was no competition, Titan XP was at a really crazy price that even most high end gamers aren't willing to pay, and the GTX 1080Ti is pushed out so far that it may not even be released ( I do NOT believe this), and that even then, the time til Volta just will not be worth it. Aelease advantage of 2-3 weeks of the GTX 1080Ti over Big Vega will be VERY suspect of being a worthwhile purchase. Staggering a high end release like this is utterly insane. The GTX 1080Ti would need to me at least a month and a half at this point of a lead.
This post all assumes a Volta GTX 2070 will come in June though. If a GTX 2070 comes later that changes a whole lot of things. I just have faith Nvidia works like clockwork though.