HOORAY!! HOUSE PRICES GOING UP!

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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,889
8,980
136
You guys realize inflation hurts billionaires and helps regular people, right?

The average American is a net debtor. Billionaires are generally speaking large net creditors. Inflation decreases the real value of debt, which is why you see rich people constantly railing against inflation - it decreases their hold over you.

This nation really needs some economic classes in high school. So your knowledge could be put into practice via more people knowing and supporting it.

The whole railing against the 2008 recovery was a lesson that our people were sorely in need of an education.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,009
53,274
136
i live in a rural area, not a city/urban area, i read a lot of the comments here, a lot do apply to urban areas. some to rural areas. i am 48, bought my 1st house in 2004, paid $89k for it, it went up in value, refinanced it for the equity, its worth is now today, $125k. I did make improvements to my home to increase its value, new siding over the years, new energy-efficient windows, and a few other things. homes for sale in my area range from $30k to over $300k, obviously the ones for $30k need some work, but put the time into it, and turn that $30k home into a $70k home. many people do it, house flipping. Average rent in my area for a HOME (not apartment) is $1,100 (roughly, and round to nearest $100). I did my research before moving here, saw that, saw that buying a home was way cheaper than renting. when i bought my house, my mortgage was about $550, of course, it went up when i refinanced it and took out equity. I didn't have good credit at the time, still was able to do it. lots of programs out there now for first time home owners and low income people to buy homes. I know an 19 year old that just bought a house that also had a trailer on it, he rents out the house to pay for his mortgage and lives in the trailer. i tell people, get a job, stick to it, after a year, apply for a home loan, buy a cheap fixer upper. way cheaper than renting. make improvements, sell it and move up to a nicer home. its possible, is it for everyone? course not. have to be willing to do a lot of work yourself, not everyone is knowledgeable in home repairs, or willing to do them themselves. but it is possible, and lots of programs out there to help people do it.

It sounds like your housing market is functioning at least moderately rationally. In high cost metro areas I really can't fathom how home prices can increase much from where they are just because I don't know who could afford to buy them. I would say a 2 bedroom apartment in Brooklyn that's not a piece of shit and is in a decent neighborhood is well above $500k, probably above $600k, and that's before common charges which can top $1,000 a month. There just aren't that many people who can afford that.
 

Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
30,383
912
126
It is absolutely bonkers. In my area, house prices have gone up by 20%+ and there are bidding wars. Houses are rarely hitting the market and are under contract before getting listed.

It's like that here too. Houses are pretty much contingent on the same day they're listed, and they're going for well over asking price. The worst thing is that people are submitting offers to waive the home inspection (as a method to sweeten the deal due to the insane number of offers), but Alabama is a caveat emptor (buyer beware) state. I would never buy a home around here without an inspection. A friend's parents-in-law bought a home where the owners moved a couch over top of a soft spot on the floor so the inspector wouldn't find it.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,009
53,274
136
It's like that here too. Houses are pretty much contingent on the same day they're listed, and they're going for well over asking price. The worst thing is that people are submitting offers to waive the home inspection (as a method to sweeten the deal due to the insane number of offers), but Alabama is a caveat emptor (buyer beware) state. I would never buy a home around here without an inspection. A friend's parents-in-law bought a home where the owners moved a couch over top of a soft spot on the floor so the inspector wouldn't find it.

That sounds like an extremely bad idea, haha.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
25,280
11,707
136
The price of lumber right now, holy crap, really hoping that changes for the better this summer. Doing a real number on new home construction.
Was going to replace the 1 x 4 cedar planking on my deck. Holy crap! Prices just went through the roof. I'm just going to replace the pieces where there a actual holes and are weak at this point.

Also, let me know when mortgage rates reach 14.25 % which was my rate in 1981 in Groton CT. You just don't have a clue.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
5,072
4,330
136
My realtors recently told me they haven’t seen anything like the current market in my town. I didn’t think it could get any hotter considering we were one of thirteen offers when we bought this place 1.5 years ago. Waived inspection, mortgage contingency, and paid about 20% over asking. It was already a thing at the time to have “pre-inspections” ... basically have an inspector come in and check the property before you even put an offer in so you can waive the inspection and feel good about it. There were two offers near ours but without the waivers ... only reason they accepted outright rather than start a bidding war. Anyway it’s worth 10-15% more now depending on who you ask. Lucky timing for sure. To me this is the city (MBTA nearby, small lots, walkable to tons of stuff) but to people who live in the actual city it’s the burbs (single family homes) so they’re all escaping out here.
 

RearAdmiral

Platinum Member
Jun 24, 2004
2,280
135
106
People are waiving inspections as part of their offers. I would never do this but it's happening.

The market does seem a bit manic, that is even happening in my area; bumble, PA. I live in a town with like 50k household income. Stuff is going for over asking here, even in a relatively depressed area. I'm hoping to be able to move sometime in the next few years once we have >1 child. Might just wait till the next downward turn. We've been saving a lot so that my wife can quit working and put down a large DP to keep our monthly expenses low. I don't really want a 600k mortgage on my proverbial books.
 

desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
5,446
214
106
I know in 97 when I bought my first house my wage has doubled, but I saw that the price of that house for sale recently was triple+
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,566
23,920
136
The Jersey Burbs market is nuts too. My buddy is working with buyers out in the burbs and he said it's practically pointless. Inventory is low and demand is so high, that any good home, at the open house, it's just a line out the door and it's insanely competitive, bidding wars, the usual situation as everyone is describing.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,971
42,838
136
The market does seem a bit manic, that is even happening in my area; bumble, PA. I live in a town with like 50k household income. Stuff is going for over asking here, even in a relatively depressed area. I'm hoping to be able to move sometime in the next few years once we have >1 child. Might just wait till the next downward turn. We've been saving a lot so that my wife can quit working and put down a large DP to keep our monthly expenses low. I don't really want a 600k mortgage on my proverbial books.

Manic is probably underselling it around here in Austin. Realtors are talking about dozens of offers on any given property. When we bought in Dec 2019 it wasn't anywhere close to this insane. This can't last though.
 
Reactions: RearAdmiral

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
5,072
4,330
136
Manic is probably underselling it around here in Austin. Realtors are talking about dozens of offers on any given property. When we bought in Dec 2019 it wasn't anywhere close to this insane. This can't last though.

Sure it can, it’s been that way for many years here. Maybe they’ll alleviate it by actually building out though. Never been to Austin but I imagine there’s room.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,971
42,838
136
Sure it can, it’s been that way for many years here. Maybe they’ll alleviate it by actually building out though. Never been to Austin but I imagine there’s room.

The pandemic is very much distorting this market. Several years worth of relocations are piling into the SFH markets across the country all at once. Sure a number of places will remain competitive but demand will eventually drop off and supply catch up.
 

thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
11,996
2,219
126
I really can't fathom how home prices can increase much from where they are just because I don't know who could afford to buy them.
I don't know how it is where you are but in Toronto there has been lots of foreign money (investors and some people actually living there) coming in buying up houses and multiple condo units. It was crazy back in 2017, new buyer rules were introduced to curb that and it maybe helped a little bit, but prices are still higher than in 2017.

Wages absolutely did not keep pace with the price of housing in Toronto in the last ~10 yrs or so.
Younger people are having to move way outside the city to actually afford a house.
 

Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
30,383
912
126
The pandemic is very much distorting this market. Several years worth of relocations are piling into the SFH markets across the country all at once. Sure a number of places will remain competitive but demand will eventually drop off and supply catch up.

It probably doesn't help that mortgage rates are low. Also, with building materials having jumped heavily in price, it means that building may be less appealing to some over buying. In addition to the price of materials, we have serious issues around here with just a lack of tradesmen to handle all the jobs. It's so bad that you may have trouble getting someone to come out for work on an existing property, and if you do get a quote, they jack up the rates. (I've been told the higher rates are more to scare off potential clients due to lack of time.)

It's also worth noting that not all buyers are your standard single-home buyers. There are also investors putting down cash on houses for rentals, AirBnB, etc.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,009
53,274
136
I don't know how it is where you are but in Toronto there has been lots of foreign money (investors and some people actually living there) coming in buying up houses and multiple condo units. It was crazy back in 2017, new buyer rules were introduced to curb that and it maybe helped a little bit, but prices are still higher than in 2017.

Wages absolutely did not keep pace with the price of housing in Toronto in the last ~10 yrs or so.
Younger people are having to move way outside the city to actually afford a house.
I’m in NYC but it depends a lot here on what you’re talking about. Foreign buyers are less of an issue because so much of the housing stock is co-ops, which you can’t really buy without living in. It’s a thing at the high end but that doesn’t comprise that much of the housing in the city. I think the story here is the same as much of the rest of the big cities. A ton of money and jobs flowed in here which attracted a lot of new, high income people. We didn’t build housing in response so the rich people bought up the middle class housing, and so on and so forth.

From what I’ve read the whole ‘foreign buyer parking money’ is an issue but it’s not as big an issue as people think. I also think the recent ban on anonymous shell companies is going to put a big dent in the ‘luxury real estate to launder money’ business.
 

RearAdmiral

Platinum Member
Jun 24, 2004
2,280
135
106
Manic is probably underselling it around here in Austin. Realtors are talking about dozens of offers on any given property. When we bought in Dec 2019 it wasn't anywhere close to this insane. This can't last though.

Austin does seem wild! My market is wild when a house gets one offer lol.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,971
42,838
136
From what I’ve read the whole ‘foreign buyer parking money’ is an issue but it’s not as big an issue as people think. I also think the recent ban on anonymous shell companies is going to put a big dent in the ‘luxury real estate to launder money’ business.

I think it's a genuine issue in parts of Manhattan (midtown, Central Park South, etc) but certainly not citywide by any means. Foreign buyers looking to stash cash are not climbing over each other to buy condos in Canarsie.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
And once $15 min wage kicks in it will go up even more. The billionaires will never do anything to lose their money. Its just the way the world works.
The first sentence is the stupidest thing I've read in quite a while. Even assuming someone who just got a raise to $15/hr had managed to save up enough for the 20% down, they still couldn't qualify for a mortgage on a home at the national median home price of $320k.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,009
53,274
136
I think it's a genuine issue in parts of Manhattan (midtown, Central Park South, etc) but certainly not citywide by any means. Foreign buyers looking to stash cash are not climbing over each other to buy condos in Canarsie.
Even if that's true the number of people who live in Midtown is small as it's not a residential area so I'm not convinced it means much to the city's market. Of course it always depends on how you define Midtown, but it's mostly a business district.

I just bet if you look at the percentage of unoccupied units as a percentage of the city's units it is vanishingly small. (it's probably a lot higher right now but if you looked at it in 2019 for example)
 

nOOky

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2004
3,185
2,218
136
We have a paid off house and a paid for small business including the brick building in a small WI town. My goal is to sell when the values are inflated, but it will be a couple of years before we retire. So not now.

The downside is thinking "oh cool I can sell my house for twice what I paid for it!" but when you buy again you'll also take it in the shorts when you go to buy to replace.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136

THANK GOD!
Those poor billionaires were just hurting too much from this mean old economy.

No seriously I think they want us all to be indentured servants for as long as we live. And thats fine except sooner or later the servants are gonna revolt and start lopping off heads ala Louis the sixteenth.
It would be nice if the servants didn't keep doing it to themselves, as eski has been trying to point out here.
Home values will always go up. They're not building more land, and if they did, it would cost more than existing land (because otherwise there'd be no reason to build it). While high interest rates and low inflation help the rich, not the poor. So-called "savers" hurt by low rates and inflation are 1) not poor by definiton, and 2) paying the price (if you will) for investing their assets so securely.
Low interest rates mean more people can afford to borrow, while rising home prices incent lenders to lend to more people despite low rates reducing their bottom line.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,613
11,254
136
Not quite. Extra mortgage payments go directly against the principal, thus reducing the amount of interest paid in the long term.
I was talking about total capital expense, not remaining balance. Poor word choice on my part.

The point being if my total mortgage over 30 years was 300k principal and 200k interest, but is now 400k principal and 100k interest, I have to pay off that 400k no matter what, the interest maybe not if I over pay or sell my house before the end of the loan.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
We have a paid off house and a paid for small business including the brick building in a small WI town. My goal is to sell when the values are inflated, but it will be a couple of years before we retire. So not now.

The downside is thinking "oh cool I can sell my house for twice what I paid for it!" but when you buy again you'll also take it in the shorts when you go to buy to replace.
If you sell your house for twice what you paid for it, that means that (assuming you hadn't already spent that equity), you will have a substantially large down payment to put towards your next house. Yes, you'll have to pay more, but chances are you're buying up anyway.
 
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