HOORAY!! HOUSE PRICES GOING UP!

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
136
Sadly at the moment inflation is still low, but there are some hopeful signs it will be higher in the fairly near future. We should all cross our fingers and hope for more inflation and keep money cheap cheap cheap until we see it in a significant way.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,045
43,828
136
The price of lumber right now, holy crap, really hoping that changes for the better this summer. Doing a real number on new home construction.
 

Juiblex

Banned
Sep 26, 2016
500
253
136
And once $15 min wage kicks in it will go up even more. The billionaires will never do anything to lose their money. Its just the way the world works.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
136
You guys realize inflation hurts billionaires and helps regular people, right?

The average American is a net debtor. Billionaires are generally speaking large net creditors. Inflation decreases the real value of debt, which is why you see rich people constantly railing against inflation - it decreases their hold over you.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
71,755
31,719
136
You guys realize inflation hurts billionaires and helps regular people, right?

The average American is a net debtor. Billionaires are generally speaking large net creditors. Inflation decreases the real value of debt, which is why you see rich people constantly railing against inflation - it decreases their hold over you.
Except for us long suffering savers who have been getting reamed for the better part of two decades. Putting the grasshoppers in charge of monetary policy has done a number on us ants.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
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Except for us long suffering savers who have been getting reamed for the better part of two decades. Putting the grasshoppers in charge of monetary policy has done a number on us ants.
Wait, are you saying rich people want interest rates to be low? This seems to be the direct opposite of what they do in practice.

Rich people want interest rates high to keep inflation low to make sure regular people don’t get to escape the real value of their debts too easily. If you have a mortgage, inflation benefits you big time.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
15,427
7,945
136

Caesar

Golden Member
Nov 5, 1999
1,686
178
106
It is absolutely bonkers. In my area, house prices have gone up by 20%+ and there are bidding wars. Houses are rarely hitting the market and are under contract before getting listed.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,613
11,254
136
You guys realize inflation hurts billionaires and helps regular people, right?

The average American is a net debtor. Billionaires are generally speaking large net creditors. Inflation decreases the real value of debt, which is why you see rich people constantly railing against inflation - it decreases their hold over you.
And when your wages don't keep up? And when house prices go up, so do closing costs and property taxes.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
136
Median Hawaii single family home price of $814K as of 4th qtr. last year.


My nephew in his twenties just bought what is considered an "affordable" new 2B2B townhouse outside of downtown for "a steal of a deal" @ $550K.

Even the luxury prime location tarp covered cardboard boxes our homeless live in have bidding/fighting wars over them.
Gotta stop using the government to ban housing construction then! If people want to see an actual decrease in housing costs that's the answer.

Cheap money increases the dollar value of homes but doesn’t increase the actual monthly burden of owning them because people target rent equivalence and not dollar value for the most part. For example if a house costs $100,000 at 5% interest the monthly mortgage cost is $537. If a house costs $150,000 at 2% the monthly mortgage cost is close to the same at $554. Is the second homeowner really worse off?

This is how low interest rates inject money into the economy.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,926
42,771
136
It is absolutely bonkers. In my area, house prices have gone up by 20%+ and there are bidding wars. Houses are rarely hitting the market and are under contract before getting listed.

Three homes have sold on my street in the last couple months and none hit the MLS. Pocket listings with bidding wars.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
136
And when your wages don't keep up?
Why would wages not keep up? Inflation mostly comes from times of full employment where wages are rising rapidly.

And when house prices go up, so do closing costs and property taxes.

Depends. Some closing costs are fixed like attorney's fees, others are a percentage of the value of the home. This means, broadly speaking, as home prices increase closing costs as a percentage of the sale decline. So sure, when home prices go up your closing costs go up but only by a small fraction of the extra money you get. To illustrate I'll offer you a deal: You can choose for me to give you $100 but you have to give me $3 back or I can give you $200 but have to give me $6 of it back. Which do you choose?

As far as property taxes go yes, they do go up. Again though, these increases are caused by you owning an asset that has dramatically increased in value! If your property taxes go up that means you have tons more money available to you!

I think this is mostly due to years of propaganda from rich people but I genuinely don't understand why people dislike inflation. If you have a mortgage inflation is your friend. If you have credit card debt inflation is your friend. The vast majority of Americans have these things.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,810
12,056
136
Median Hawaii single family home price of $814K as of 4th qtr. last year.


My nephew in his twenties just bought what is considered an "affordable" new 2B2B townhouse outside of downtown for "a steal of a deal" @ $550K.

Even the luxury prime location tarp covered cardboard boxes our homeless live in have bidding/fighting wars over them.
In hawaii's defense, it's an island (or series of them). There's truly a finite area of buildable terrain. At some point you need to build up instead of out.

When I visit my sister in Rockville, MD, I often pass by a set of new construction luxury townhomes. The STARTING price is 800k 😳
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,926
42,771
136
Gotta stop using the government to ban housing construction then! If people want to see an actual decrease in housing costs that's the answer.

It is pretty odd to watch CA begin turning the corner on this while NY (and much of the northeast generally) keeps sinking into "more homes in a housing crisis are bad" territory.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,926
42,771
136
In hawaii's defense, it's an island (or series of them). There's truly a finite area of buildable terrain. At some point you need to build up instead of out.

Ideal Honolulu skyline circa 2040:

 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
136
It is pretty odd to watch CA begin turning the corner on this while NY (and much of the northeast generally) keeps sinking into "more homes in a housing crisis are bad" territory.
Well, there is hope for CA. They really need to pass that bill to overturn local zoning within X miles of transit at least.

Yes though, the situation in NYC is enraging to me. All everyone ever talks about is how high their rent is and how bad the housing prices are and then as soon as anyone attempts to build more housing so that prices will go down they go balls out trying to block it under the guise that increasing the supply of something increases its price. (?!?) I think the idea is that the government needs to build massive amounts of public housing as if we didn't try that in the past (and in some cases the present).

They seem to think this because new housing is expensive but that's like saying building new cars makes cars more expensive. In reality rich people buy new cars and then less wealthy people buy the used cars the rich person just turned in. Same applies to houses.
 

PingSpike

Lifer
Feb 25, 2004
21,753
599
126
I think this is mostly due to years of propaganda from rich people but I genuinely don't understand why people dislike inflation. If you have a mortgage inflation is your friend. If you have credit card debt inflation is your friend. The vast majority of Americans have these things.

When my parents bought their house back in 1978 or so inflation was insane. They paid extra on it and paid it off in 7 years because a large amount of the mortgage payment was interest. You'll still see real estate tips websites telling you that if you pay one extra mortgage payment a year you can shave 12 years off your mortgage...this was true for a brief period of time and that period of time didn't overlap with the internet! Real estate ads took that advice from the 1980s and then printed it on the Internet for decades after it was true.

They do the same thing with the "big tax savings" from owning a house. That high interest also gave you a gigantic amount to deduct off your taxes, but at current rates only people with really huge mortgages (rich people and I guess people living in very HCL areas) have actually had much of a tax benefit from it. My own banal house and income had a tax benefit that started at a whopping $800/yr and went down from there. I think I got about 5 years out of it before the benefit went from paltry to non-existent. And Trump tax cuts basically devoured the remaining scraps since they pushed the standard deduction up so much.
 
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shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
80,287
17,080
136
You guys realize inflation hurts billionaires and helps regular people, right?

The average American is a net debtor. Billionaires are generally speaking large net creditors. Inflation decreases the real value of debt, which is why you see rich people constantly railing against inflation - it decreases their hold over you.
I dont think so.

Rich people have real assets. Land. Homes. Stocks in companies that produce things of value. Gold. Silver. Power and influence over labor. Shit like that. Thats real value.
Money is not value. Money is a representation of things that have real value, like the stuff I just listed.

Poor people dont have assets. dont have capitol. Thats why they cant make more value, and turn it into money. Thats why they suffer whenever the rich are doing really well.

When the cost of things in money goes up and you only have your paycheck and maybe something in the bank and no tangible assets, you are kinda losing value.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
136
When my parents bought their house back in 1978 or so inflation was insane. They paid extra on it and paid it off in 7 years because a large amount of the mortgage payment was interest. You'll still see real estate tips websites telling you that if you pay one extra mortgage payment a year you can shave 12 years off your mortgage...this was true for a brief period of time and that period of time didn't overlap with the internet! Real estate ads took that advice from the 1980s and then printed it on the Internet for decades after it was true.

My mom told me the same thing, that I needed to start paying extra on my apartment. It was really hard for her to believe that doing this was a big waste of money because the interest rate was so low I could get a better return doing almost anything else. Also, I had no plans to stay in it for 30 years and so I never intended to pay it off.

They do the same thing with the "big tax savings" from owning a house. That high interest also gave you a gigantic amount to deduct off your taxes, but at current rates only people with really huge mortgages (rich people and I guess people living in very HCL areas) have actually had much of a tax benefit from it. My own banal house and income had a tax benefit that started at a whopping $800/yr and went down from there. I think I got about 5 years out of it before the benefit went from paltry to non-existent. And Trump tax cuts basically devoured the remaining scraps since they pushed the standard deduction up so much.
Very true - the Trump tax cuts essentially eliminated the mortgage interest deduction for most people. I used to save about $4,000 a year in taxes off of mine before then. What people often don't take into account is you know what's better than tax savings on the interest you paid? Not paying the interest to begin with!

The problem with housing prices isn't low interest rates, it's that our housing supply is incredibly constrained by oppressive regulation.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
71,755
31,719
136
Wait, are you saying rich people want interest rates to be low? This seems to be the direct opposite of what they do in practice.

Rich people want interest rates high to keep inflation low to make sure regular people don’t get to escape the real value of their debts too easily. If you have a mortgage, inflation benefits you big time.
What does your response have to do with my post?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
136
What does your response have to do with my post?
You seem to be claiming that monetary policy over the last few decades has been bad for savers, which I took as criticism of low interest rates. Generally speaking though inflation has been much too low for at least the last 12-13 years or so, which benefits savers.

So I guess my question is how you think monetary policy hurt you if you don't have debt.
 

PingSpike

Lifer
Feb 25, 2004
21,753
599
126
The problem with housing prices isn't low interest rates, it's that our housing supply is incredibly constrained by oppressive regulation.

To some extent, low interest rates do boost the actual prices people are willing (and can) pay for housing because as you said, people buy based on the monthly payment not the price of the house.

That said, during the 1970s around here tons and tons of cheap ranch houses were built for boomers to live in, followed by their mortgages being inflated away. The cheap house construction was probably a larger factor though. Now everyone seems to fight tooth and nail to kill any "affordable housing" projects from being built in my area. And these affordable housing projects are all like 300K condos.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,000
53,243
136
I dont think so.

Rich people have real assets. Land. Homes. Stocks in companies that produce things of value. Gold. Silver. Power and influence over labor. Shit like that. Thats real value.
Money is not value. Money is a representation of things that have real value, like the stuff I just listed.

Rich people have assets, yes. Rich people are also net creditors. (where is the loan money for your house coming from, after all?) The average American is a net debtor but rich people are net creditors. Inflation helps debtors (average people) and hurts creditors (rich people).

Poor people dont have assets. dont have capitol. Thats why they cant make more value, and turn it into money. Thats why they suffer whenever the rich are doing really well.

Inflation has been extremely, worryingly low since at least 2008 or so. During that time who did better, rich people or poor people?

When the cost of things in money goes up and you only have your paycheck and maybe something in the bank and no tangible assets, you are kinda losing value.
Well that's the thing though - with inflation wages generally go up as well. I'm not sure why people think inflation means wages are stagnant.

What DOESN'T go up is fixed rate debt like mortgages or student loans. Since average people have lots of fixed rate debt like this inflation helps them out big time. If you owed $500k on your house right now and in this next year inflation was 4% instead of 1% it's like you paid off $15,000 extra in mortgage principal. Not bad, huh. Imagine how pissed the person who loaned you that money is though, you get to pay them back in dollars that are worth a lot less than the ones they loaned you.

My one question to people here is if inflation is bad for regular people but good for rich people then why do rich people fight so hard to ensure inflation doesn't happen? Do they not know what you know?
 
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