House Speaker election/circus/all ages carnival - ongoing coverage

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,683
49,275
136
Here’s the problem. There is an overwhelming majority of voters who have no idea how the process works. Repeating the same thing without resistance causes it to be true.
Voters don't need to know how the process works - they know Republicans are in charge and things are screwed up. That's all that really matters.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,267
8,195
136
Seems like a real possibly nobody in their caucus can get to 217.

Probably need to have a real discussion about how to empower McHenry as caretaker so that the body isn't totally fucking paralyzed because the Rs are a giant mess.

Interesting, in that it seemed clear from their party conference that the Conservatives here are hopelessly split into incompatible factions.

You have the 'former red wall' MPs, still hoping for more of that Johnsonian 'levelling up' confidence-trick so they can offer something to their disgruntled Northern voters, probably combined with culture-war tactics...and the Trussbot still pushing her mad tax-cutting libertarianism (appealing to home counties and City types? Clearly entirely incompatible with any 'levelling up' agenda), while there are still a few liberal conservatives (yes we have such a thing) worried about the effect of the rightward turn on their 'blue wall' voters who still have some concern about the environment (that they live in, or even own).

It's usually the left that is riven with disunity, but these days the right seems at least as bad, if not worse.
 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,385
7,146
136
Not clear what that second graphic shows. Is it showing that from the '50s till the '90s the system actually _under_ represented Republican votes? What was the cause of that, if so? (Or is it showing the opposite? Can't work out what the symbols mean).
I believe the dots represent the % of the popular vote and the destination of the arrow corresponds to the % of the House seats won. For example, in 1964 Democrats won 57% of the popular vote which led them to winning almost 70% of the House seats. Vice versa, Republicans won 43% of the popular vote which led them to winning low-30% of the House seats.

What's interesting is to see when a party didn't win at least 50% of the popular vote yet won House seats. You can see more recently there were a handful of times Republicans lost the popular vote but won seats, implying an inherent edge. This is consistent with their rural advantage.

 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,267
8,195
136
I believe the dots represent the % of the popular vote and the destination of the arrow corresponds to the % of the House seats won. For example, in 1964 Democrats won 57% of the popular vote which led them to winning almost 70% of the House seats. Vice versa, Republicans won 43% of the popular vote which led them to winning low-30% of the House seats.

What's interesting is to see when a party didn't win at least 50% of the popular vote yet won House seats. You can see more recently there were a handful of times Republicans lost the popular vote but won seats, implying an inherent edge. This is consistent with their rural advantage.

View attachment 87019

Yeah, I get that now - was slightly surprised at how bad the bias _against_ the Republicans was in previous decades. Now it's reversed, of course. Hard to imagine how such skewed system operating for such a long time could not have had long-term political effects, but the fact that it's flipped in terms of party affiliation/label I guess means the effects would be complicated (the one consistent aspect being a bias against black people).
Does "House seats" mean solely Congress, or is the Senate lumped in with those figures? Has the skew in the electoral college followed the same pattern?

[edit] And why is 2008 such an outlier? Like a brief return to the old pattern. Is it that it just takes one state to flip and the bias reverses?
 
Feb 4, 2009
34,699
15,941
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Yeah but they don't matter as they are unreachable anyway.

Really 'But Trump supporters will say X' is a meaningless statement. They will make up whatever lies are needed to justify themselves.
And they also speak the loudest.
This is a battle of hearts & minds. Democrats have a long history of losing this battle.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,647
10,507
136
Do they though? I mean they've won the popular vote for president all but one time over the last 30 years.
So you think that humbles them and makes them silent. Remember, they don't believe in our system anymore. It's who has the most intimidating and threatening message.
 
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eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
9,326
4,587
136
Beyond parody. Also blaming the Ds who have nothing to do with their mess after having just competently ran the body with a slimmer majority is something.

Indeed. And Biden’s fault Hamas attacked because he released humanitarian funds to Iran. Also leaving Afghanistan is the precursor to all the instability around the world. Hmm 2017-2020 didn’t cause more worldwide instability? NAH!!!
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,683
49,275
136
So you think that humbles them and makes them silent. Remember, they don't believe in our system anymore. It's who has the most intimidating and threatening message.
No, I’m saying losing the popular vote almost every time doesn’t look like winning the message war to me.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,385
7,146
136
Does "House seats" mean solely Congress, or is the Senate lumped in with those figures? Has the skew in the electoral college followed the same pattern?

[edit] And why is 2008 such an outlier? Like a brief return to the old pattern. Is it that it just takes one state to flip and the bias reverses?
I believe House seats are just House of Representatives... but don't quote me on that.

2008 was when Obama was elected. Voter turnout was historic in that election, obviously favoring Democrats.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,683
49,275
136
Yeah, I get that now - was slightly surprised at how bad the bias _against_ the Republicans was in previous decades. Now it's reversed, of course. Hard to imagine how such skewed system operating for such a long time could not have had long-term political effects, but the fact that it's flipped in terms of party affiliation/label I guess means the effects would be complicated (the one consistent aspect being a bias against black people).
Does "House seats" mean solely Congress, or is the Senate lumped in with those figures? Has the skew in the electoral college followed the same pattern?

[edit] And why is 2008 such an outlier? Like a brief return to the old pattern. Is it that it just takes one state to flip and the bias reverses?
House seats means solely the House of Representatives. The Senate has always had a skew towards rural states by design.

2008 was most likely an outlier because of the size of Obama’s victory, which I suspect hit the tipping point to overcome gerrymandering, and when that happens it’s very bad for the person who did the gerrymandering because it leads to an avalanche of losses. For example if your gerrymander all your seats to be R+5 and R’s lose by 4, you’re all good and lose nothing. If you lose by 6 you might lose everything.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,683
49,275
136
And yet we are here. Narrow non functional R control.
Of one of the three elected parts of government. If the Democrats had the house with a narrow majority and republicans controlled the senate and presidency would you say Democrats had won the country’s hearts and minds? Of course not.
 
Feb 4, 2009
34,699
15,941
136
Of one of the three elected parts of government. If the Democrats had the house with a narrow majority and republicans controlled the senate and presidency would you say Democrats had won the country’s hearts and minds? Of course not.
Then why does this damn thread even exist? Rs control the house, they control it poorly however they control it.
 
Reactions: pcgeek11
Nov 17, 2019
11,258
6,701
136
The House the Senate and the White House need each other. No two can do much without at least the co-operation of the third. The system is sort of designed that way.

The system was not designed to be have whiney cry babies running one or more though which is what we've had for the last few years.

Maybe some day we'll get adults back in place.
 
Feb 4, 2009
34,699
15,941
136
The House the Senate and the White House need each other. No two can do much without at least the co-operation of the third. The system is sort of designed that way.

The system was not designed to be have whiney cry babies running one or more though which is what we've had for the last few years.

Maybe some day we'll get adults back in place.
Agreed, I like how our system is designed for effectively equal powers. Historically it has worked well. Problem now is that we have a small but significant chunk of Republicans that literally want to burn government to the ground. System was built assuming people want to get stuff done. We haven’t figured out an effective mechanism to combat this.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,104
136
House seats means solely the House of Representatives. The Senate has always had a skew towards rural states by design.

2008 was most likely an outlier because of the size of Obama’s victory, which I suspect hit the tipping point to overcome gerrymandering, and when that happens it’s very bad for the person who did the gerrymandering because it leads to an avalanche of losses. For example if your gerrymander all your seats to be R+5 and R’s lose by 4, you’re all good and lose nothing. If you lose by 6 you might lose everything.
The Dems used to be really good at gerrymandering. The republicans got wise to that and went full bore on funding to win majorities in state elections. So, there is a way to for democrats to fix this - it's just a tough and unseemly road.
 

NWRMidnight

Platinum Member
Jun 18, 2001
2,965
2,571
136
I believe the dots represent the % of the popular vote and the destination of the arrow corresponds to the % of the House seats won. For example, in 1964 Democrats won 57% of the popular vote which led them to winning almost 70% of the House seats. Vice versa, Republicans won 43% of the popular vote which led them to winning low-30% of the House seats.

What's interesting is to see when a party didn't win at least 50% of the popular vote yet won House seats. You can see more recently there were a handful of times Republicans lost the popular vote but won seats, implying an inherent edge. This is consistent with their rural advantage.

View attachment 87019
One has to ask, how much the red states heavy gerrymandering and supression efforts played in those numbers the last few decades? With that in mind, is it an accurate representation of what the people want? I am willing to bet, if someone took the time to research it, that the 1990's is when such gerrymanding and suppression efforts started to streamline in the red statese. I suspect the results would have been simular to the previous decades if such gerrymandering and supression efforts in the red states didn't take place to the extent that it has. Record voting numbers in 2008 is most likely why 2008 looks like the earlier decades. At some point, the red states are going to succeed with their gerrymanding and suprission efforts that not even record voting turnout will be able to combat it, if something isn't done about it to stop them.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,841
20,176
136
America is unfixable due to the archaic constitution and how it divies up how many representatives there are, gerrymandering, how tilted to low population red states the senate is, and the messed up way the supreme court works.

I fail to see any scenario happening in time where these things can be changed, therefore, it is time for a national divorce. It is impossible to right the American government because it is too fundamentally flawed in favor of the GQP, regressives, and there is no real way to change it that's actually possible.

National. Divorce.
 
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