Housing: 2007 Thread.

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: OSRealistically it doesn't look like the RE market is gonna recover for years.

But...will the prices return to being aligned with people's incomes? That's what I wonder about. Common sense says that they have to, eventually.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
My SRS is up 5.2% today When it dropped to 85 after Hilton was bought out, I doubled my position. I hope some of you guys didn't listen to Vic, and bought some. I don't think it's too late now, but I would let it pull back a little after a big jump. I am planning to double my position again, that's how strongly I believe that housing market is going down the drain. That's the only thing keeping my portfolio from declining since all my other holdings are down.

Gotta love the greed here. Nothing like a bald-faced hypocrite.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: OSRealistically it doesn't look like the RE market is gonna recover for years.

But...will the prices return to being aligned with people's incomes? That's what I wonder about. Common sense says that they have to, eventually.

Define both "recover" or "aligned with people's incomes." Or shut up.

If by "recover," you mean boom again, then that will be decades away. Or hopefully never again. If you mean flatten out, that will begin when the Fed starts cutting rates again and re-opens the money floodgates.

As to what you mean by "aligned with people's incomes," let me remind you greedy short-ers of what I've been saying for years. The housing market depends on the availability and cost of funds. It's not like you or most other people pay cash for housing. If and when the market becomes so depressed price-wise that you are able to buy in cheaply, don't fool yourself into believing that the cost and availability of funds will have remained affordable as well.

 

[senseamp]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
My SRS is up 5.2% today When it dropped to 85 after Hilton was bought out, I doubled my position. I hope some of you guys didn't listen to Vic, and bought some. I don't think it's too late now, but I would let it pull back a little after a big jump. I am planning to double my position again, that's how strongly I believe that housing market is going down the drain. That's the only thing keeping my portfolio from declining since all my other holdings are down.

Gotta love the greed here. Nothing like a bald-faced hypocrite.

Not this sh!t again. We already went over it, and the consensus on this board was that you were an idiot for thinking shorting housing was somehow screwing the middle class. :thumbsup:

 

[senseamp]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: OSRealistically it doesn't look like the RE market is gonna recover for years.

But...will the prices return to being aligned with people's incomes? That's what I wonder about. Common sense says that they have to, eventually.

Define both "recover" or "aligned with people's incomes." Or shut up.

If by "recover," you mean boom again, then that will be decades away. Or hopefully never again. If you mean flatten out, that will begin when the Fed starts cutting rates again and re-opens the money floodgates.

As to what you mean by "aligned with people's incomes," let me remind you greedy short-ers of what I've been saying for years. The housing market depends on the availability and cost of funds. It's not like you or most other people pay cash for housing. If and when the market becomes so depressed price-wise that you are able to buy in cheaply, don't fool yourself into believing that the cost and availability of funds will have remained affordable as well.

That's why some of us are shorting housing so we can make enough money to afford to buy a house once they depreciate. While some who bought at the peak are going to be foreclosing or pumping money into a depreciating asset, the few of us who didn't buy into this whole frenzy were waiting on the sidelines, putting money into investments so we can afford a large enough down payment on a house to not sweat whatever high interest rates at that point. So before you break out the violin for the middle class we are supposedly screwing, some of us are in the middle class, living in a 1 bedroom apartment instead of a house way beyond our means, saving money for the time when housing valuations are reasonable. No need to be hating.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
My SRS is up 5.2% today When it dropped to 85 after Hilton was bought out, I doubled my position. I hope some of you guys didn't listen to Vic, and bought some. I don't think it's too late now, but I would let it pull back a little after a big jump. I am planning to double my position again, that's how strongly I believe that housing market is going down the drain. That's the only thing keeping my portfolio from declining since all my other holdings are down.

Gotta love the greed here. Nothing like a bald-faced hypocrite.

There is nothing wrong with adding rationality back into the market. Every capital market is a zero-sum game. Somebody wins, somebody loses. If he loses on this trade, then you'll be laughing at him, won't you? If he wins, you'll be cursing him. Why is that? Could it be you have a conflicting interest?

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
My SRS is up 5.2% today When it dropped to 85 after Hilton was bought out, I doubled my position. I hope some of you guys didn't listen to Vic, and bought some. I don't think it's too late now, but I would let it pull back a little after a big jump. I am planning to double my position again, that's how strongly I believe that housing market is going down the drain. That's the only thing keeping my portfolio from declining since all my other holdings are down.

Gotta love the greed here. Nothing like a bald-faced hypocrite.

There is nothing wrong with adding rationality back into the market. Every capital market is a zero-sum game. Somebody wins, somebody loses. If he loses on this trade, then you'll be laughing at him, won't you? If he wins, you'll be cursing him. Why is that? Could it be you have a conflicting interest?

My professional interests have nothing to do with this. That's just one of the ways you rationalize to yourself the way you're treating peoples' homes like just another stock market commodity to be pumped-and-dumped.
And please don't PM me with yet more personal and professional attacks. Thank you.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
My SRS is up 5.2% today When it dropped to 85 after Hilton was bought out, I doubled my position. I hope some of you guys didn't listen to Vic, and bought some. I don't think it's too late now, but I would let it pull back a little after a big jump. I am planning to double my position again, that's how strongly I believe that housing market is going down the drain. That's the only thing keeping my portfolio from declining since all my other holdings are down.

Gotta love the greed here. Nothing like a bald-faced hypocrite.

There is nothing wrong with adding rationality back into the market. Every capital market is a zero-sum game. Somebody wins, somebody loses. If he loses on this trade, then you'll be laughing at him, won't you? If he wins, you'll be cursing him. Why is that? Could it be you have a conflicting interest?

My professional interests have nothing to do with this. That's just one of the ways you rationalize to yourself the way you're treating peoples' homes like just another stock market commodity to be pumped-and-dumped.
And please don't PM me with yet more personal and professional attacks. Thank you.

Your professional interests have a direct impact, you don't want to see your friend lose their jobs, which is a natural thing, so I don't take exception to it. lol, who ever said I, or anybody else, were pumping and dumping? Nice strawman attack there. I am sure it's a great way to deflect actual intellectual thought. Rationality has to enter into the equation in any situation. Housing just happened to be an asset that had a lot of lop-sided rationalization as the market didn't price in all information, it was an inefficient market. As a result of that asymmetry, it was prone to one-sided speculation and price irrationality.

Now, rationality is returning and part of that is product that enable symmetrical pricing of the asset. It's a simple economic fundamental present in any efficient system, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

I know that people seem to think that something should never lose value. However, if that value is unsustainable, then it will lose value. If somebody knows that and takes that estimate and makes money off of it, so what? They are doing nothing immoral. If you think they are, perhaps you should become a communist.

Sure, these are people's homes. But they are homes they shouldn't have had in the first place. The only reason why they did have them is because some mortgage broker stuck out sign promising the world and then painted a rosey picture of perpetual appreciation that would enable the obligor to keep in the house.

It's the typical bubblehead mentality. As far as pump and dump, I never thought much of this housing situation. Back in 2002 when somebody told me to go long on housing I scoffed, especially due to my personal and professional situation.

I only PM'd you to not have a direct affect on this thread. However, if you want my to point out the glaringly obvious self-righteous behavior in public I shall.

I realized on my own that perhaps I had treated Vic unfairly, I didn't intentionally mean to, but I could see the connection. I PM'd him an apology and also posted one, which he accepted, but also attempted to bludgeon me with a threat of a Mod report and potential ban (or other repurcussions). I blew this off. I never meant to insinuate that Vic directly took any fraudulent actions and even still I am sorry if he ever assumed that I meant to insinuate that. He seems like a decent guy, even if I completely disagree with his position and I have never assumed he'd attempt to defraud people.

Now, high self-righteous behavior is exposed as nothing more than an attempt of "do as I say and not as I do", which completely undermines his position as being able to use his leverage as a long-time poster to bring divergent opinions and assumed insinuations to heel. I did not like this attempt at essential blackmail and I PM'd him to that fact (as others have PM'd me attesting to it). I guess he didn't like being told to stop being a hypocrite.

 

[Vic]

As long as you continue to make professional attacks against me, LK, we ain't gonna get along. As Sampson already pointed out just recently in this thread, seasoned real estate professionals can make money no matter which way the market turns. I've already weathered through the '99-'00 downturn, which was worse in my area than this one has been so far.
What my professional experience does do is give me direct and personal knowledge of how your "shorting" is hurting real people (who are real no matter what labels you give them).
Most comical of all, LK, is your perception that mortgage brokers did/do nothing but pushing people into buying homes they didn't want. As if. That just shows how disconnected you are. No doubt you get that from your due diligence experience where you have to deal directly with fraud. The truth, however, is that most mortgage brokers (and you use that term loosely, let me tell you) and "pushy LOs" (at least Sampson shows that he knows the industry) are order takers who sit around waiting for the phone to ring. That's why most of them lose their jobs the moment the phone stops ringing on its own.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic
As long as you continue to make professional attacks against me, LK, we ain't gonna get along. As Sampson already pointed out just recently in this thread, seasoned real estate professionals can make money no matter which way the market turns. I've already weathered through the '99-'00 downturn, which was worse in my area than this one has been so far.
What my professional experience does do is give me direct and personal knowledge of how your "shorting" is hurting real people (who are real no matter what labels you give them).
Most comical of all, LK, is your perception that mortgage brokers did/do nothing but pushing people into buying homes they didn't want. As if. That just shows how disconnected you are. No doubt you get that from your due diligence experience where you have to deal directly with fraud. The truth, however, is that most mortgage brokers (and you use that term loosely, let me tell you) and "pushy LOs" (at least Sampson shows that he knows the industry) are order takers who sit around waiting for the phone to ring. That's why most of them lose their jobs the moment the phone stops ringing on its own.

I could care less if we "get along" or not. I just want you to stop your holier-than-thou attacks. It's hypocritical and essentially blackmail and it's misplaced considering your recent spate of posts.

Brokers/LO, sure, you could call them different things. However, from what I have read it really isn't much different. Personally, I haven't been involved in a MBS transaction, my bank doesn't like them.

The market is going to go down whether it's shorted or not. Stop trying to put blame where it isn't due.

 

[senseamp]

I am a real person (who is real no matter what labels you give me). Shorting is helping me. Real estate longs are hurting me, because they drive up housing prices, so I continue to rent. And I know hundreds of people like me, young professionals who are making decent (high 5 or low 6 figure) wages but are being priced out of the real estate market here in CA by speculators and real estate longs. These people would be helped by shorting real estate, and will be if I am successful in convincing them to short it.

 

[OS]

i bought in to the RE short fund, too bad i didn't a couple days ago, but gotta start somewhere.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I could care less if we "get along" or not. I just want you to stop your holier-than-thou attacks. It's hypocritical and essentially blackmail and it's misplaced considering your recent spate of posts.

Brokers/LO, sure, you could call them different things. However, from what I have read it really isn't much different. Personally, I haven't been involved in a MBS transaction, my bank doesn't like them.

The market is going to go down whether it's shorted or not. Stop trying to put blame where it isn't due.

My "attacks" are because you have been attacking me personally and professionally. They've long been out of line. And your constant attacks on everyday in-the-sales-trenches mortgage loan officers as the SOLE blame for high home prices is akin to blaming car salesmen for the high prices of new cars. In fact, they're so ridiculously blown out of any and all proportion, that initially I thought you must be engaged in something shady, and were covering up on that. I have since come to the conclusion that you're just a typical e-thug and a liar.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: OS
i bought in to the RE short fund, too bad i didn't a couple days ago, but gotta start somewhere.

If you think a mere couple of days matters on any speculative investment, then you're investing over your head. Buy all you want though. Funds like this feed off the market, not create it.

 

[smack Down]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: OS
i bought in to the RE short fund, too bad i didn't a couple days ago, but gotta start somewhere.

If you think a mere couple of days matters on any speculative investment, then you're investing over your head. Buy all you want though. Funds like this feed off the market, not create it.

haha, You're comparing yourself to a car salesman to make yourself look good.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I could care less if we "get along" or not. I just want you to stop your holier-than-thou attacks. It's hypocritical and essentially blackmail and it's misplaced considering your recent spate of posts.

Brokers/LO, sure, you could call them different things. However, from what I have read it really isn't much different. Personally, I haven't been involved in a MBS transaction, my bank doesn't like them.

The market is going to go down whether it's shorted or not. Stop trying to put blame where it isn't due.

My "attacks" are because you have been attacking me personally and professionally. They've long been out of line. And your constant attacks on everyday in-the-sales-trenches mortgage loan officers as the SOLE blame for high home prices is akin to blaming car salesmen for the high prices of new cars. In fact, they're so ridiculously blown out of any and all proportion, that initially I thought you must be engaged in something shady, and were covering up on that. I have since come to the conclusion that you're just a typical e-thug and a liar.

Yeah, even if they were in response, all they did was undermine your position, because it just highlights you're a hypocrite. Don't use your supposed high-ground to bludgeon me with threads of banning, because it won't work anymore when all you do is throw around "scum" and everything else. I did sincerely regret any assumed insult, but now I only regret kowtowing to a hypocrite blackmailer.

Why don't you try to create a realistic analogy? This situation is akin to the salesman being in league with the loan officer and appraiser (Say KBB) to keep cars appreciating. Nobody stops the upward spiral because they all feed off of it like bloodsucking leeches. The appraiser makes more with more sales and more expensive houses feeding more sales. The mortgage broker makes more money off of higher values. The RE agent gets the same. They are supposed to be *THE* people on the forefront of making sure that people can afford, purchase, and maintain their houses. Appraisers are supposed to be subjective, but are not. Brokers and LOs are supposed to keep to the credit guidelines and be honest and truth seeking in making sure the correct loans are underwritten. The RE agents are supposed to add realistic expectations into the market. The triumverate of reasonability in the local markets did nothing but scheme in a massive pump and dump. Either way, you just put yourself akin to a car salesman, great job!

You want to throw around pump and dump? Look at the people who were in the local markets, who had direct and absolute control over the situation *AND* profited directly by the pyramid scheme. Sure, bankers made money off of the underwriting fees, but bankers only buy paper, they aren't the ones who write it.

What it comes down to is that the whole local RE industry threw out scruples and did everything it could for that last dollar of commissions.

I have not done one thing shady, nor have you probably. My bank hasn't underwritten MBS, nor have gotten near CDOs with subprime MBS. I am sure you'd like to think that everybody has, or those who have are directly culpable, but that's not the case. As far as me being a liar, I have not lied once. As far as an e-bully, I am not calling everybody in this thread scum or ripping their ideas down.

You're such a hypocrite that you can't even realize it at every step of the way. Instead, you act like a further bully by crying about reporting me to the mods. Pathetic.

 

[Vic]

Blah blah blah... and everyone who bought a house did so against their will. It was a grand evil conspiracy. We've all heard this nonsense here from you many times before, LK.
Note that I said NEW cars. The appraisal is the MSRP set by the manufacturer. It was no surprise to me that you couldn't get that.

But the funniest thing is that you think you're insulting me everytime you say the word "broker." I work for a FDIC chartered NA bank, not a mortgage broker.


edit: my main point to you, however, which you just can't seem to get, is that you're not living in the real world. You made it crystal clear to me months ago that all you care about is being "right" about the housing market here on internet message boards. After that point, all your arguments about the real world were rendered moot.
It's like senseamp... he calls himself middle class and struggling in this thread, and so explains he needs to invest in an RE short fund, he constantly bemoans about the fate of the poor and the need for the right to be punished, but then brags about his large 6 figure salary in another (recent) thread, and his successful investments in this one. In other words, he's your classic wineglass socialist. Altruism in words, selfish greed in acts.
You live in fantasy worlds.

 

[Oceandevi]

So is there a website that lets you look at local real estate listings that is easy to navigate and requires no signup?

And chill out guys. please?

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic
Blah blah blah... and everyone who bought a house did so against their will. It was a grand evil conspiracy. We've all heard this nonsense here from you many times before, LK.
Note that I said NEW cars. The appraisal is the MSRP set by the manufacturer. It was no surprise to me that you couldn't get that.

So you're telling me that Pulte sets an MSRP for a house and the appraiser follows that? Or is it that a car salesmen never sells a car above MSRP? Or is it that the loan officer screws with the numbers to "fit" them in? Or is it that the LO knows that the MSRP is crap, but wants commissions anyway? Used, new, they are all slimeballs. Marginally above timeshare salesmen and pond scum.

But the funniest thing is that you think you're insulting me everytime you say the word "broker." I work for a FDIC chartered NA bank, not a mortgage broker.

Amazingly, where did I ever say you were a broker? Where did I say I was trying to insult you? Delusions of grandeur? The world doesn't revolve around you.

edit: my main point to you, however, which you just can't seem to get, is that you're not living in the real world. You made it crystal clear to me months ago that all you care about is being "right" about the housing market here on internet message boards. After that point, all your arguments about the real world were rendered moot.
It's like senseamp... he calls himself middle class and struggling in this thread, and so explains he needs to invest in an RE short fund, he constantly bemoans about the fate of the poor and the need for the right to be punished, but then brags about his large 6 figure salary in another (recent) thread, and his successful investments in this one. In other words, he's your classic wineglass socialist. Altruism in words, selfish greed in acts.
You live in fantasy worlds.

Ahh yes, it's all about me being right. It's not about me wanting to return rationality to the market, or even my wanting to buy a reasonably priced house? Sure, you know what it is. Keep it up sparky, you're the one discrediting yourself with further bully behavior.

 

[senseamp]

Originally posted by: Vic
It's like senseamp... he calls himself middle class and struggling in this thread, and so explains he needs to invest in an RE short fund, he constantly bemoans about the fate of the poor and the need for the right to be punished, but then brags about his large 6 figure salary in another (recent) thread, and his successful investments in this one. In other words, he's your classic wineglass socialist. Altruism in words, selfish greed in acts.

Another lame personal attack on me. Definitely a pattern here. Where is the selfish greed in my acts? If I was selfish, I'd be a Republican, screaming and yelling about how my salary and capital gains are overtaxed. 10 years ago, I was living in my grandparents garage, going to an inner city school, and eating cup noodles. Now I make reasonable money, by no means a lot in this area, and I try to invest it wisely, because that's all I have to fall back on if something were to happen to me. I don't plan to apologize to you for doing honest investing in what I want to invest in.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic
It's like senseamp... he calls himself middle class and struggling in this thread, and so explains he needs to invest in an RE short fund, he constantly bemoans about the fate of the poor and the need for the right to be punished, but then brags about his large 6 figure salary in another (recent) thread, and his successful investments in this one. In other words, he's your classic wineglass socialist. Altruism in words, selfish greed in acts.

Another lame personal attack on me. Definitely a pattern here. Where is the selfish greed in my acts? If I was selfish, I'd be a Republican, screaming and yelling about how my salary and capital gains are overtaxed. 10 years ago, I was living in my grandparents garage, going to an inner city school, and eating cup noodles. Now I make reasonable money, by no means a lot in this area, and I try to invest it wisely, because that's all I have to fall back on if something were to happen to me. I don't plan to apologize to you for doing honest investing in what I want to invest in.

So what you're saying is that the morality of selfishness is defined solely by political affiliation? :laugh:

 

[senseamp]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic
It's like senseamp... he calls himself middle class and struggling in this thread, and so explains he needs to invest in an RE short fund, he constantly bemoans about the fate of the poor and the need for the right to be punished, but then brags about his large 6 figure salary in another (recent) thread, and his successful investments in this one. In other words, he's your classic wineglass socialist. Altruism in words, selfish greed in acts.

Another lame personal attack on me. Definitely a pattern here. Where is the selfish greed in my acts? If I was selfish, I'd be a Republican, screaming and yelling about how my salary and capital gains are overtaxed. 10 years ago, I was living in my grandparents garage, going to an inner city school, and eating cup noodles. Now I make reasonable money, by no means a lot in this area, and I try to invest it wisely, because that's all I have to fall back on if something were to happen to me. I don't plan to apologize to you for doing honest investing in what I want to invest in.

So what you're saying is that the morality of selfishness is defined solely by political affiliation? :laugh:

Huh? What? What exactly is immoral about investing money? Is Warren Buffet immoral too?

 

[senseamp]

So wait, am I getting this right, does Vic work at a bank? Bank that is probably now stuck with loans whose collateral's value is going to get decimated. No more suckers to sell ARMs too? Too bad, so sad. Seems like he is really pissed off that the gravy train is leaving, so he is attacking those of us who are hopping on the it to make some money on the return trip.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic
It's like senseamp... he calls himself middle class and struggling in this thread, and so explains he needs to invest in an RE short fund, he constantly bemoans about the fate of the poor and the need for the right to be punished, but then brags about his large 6 figure salary in another (recent) thread, and his successful investments in this one. In other words, he's your classic wineglass socialist. Altruism in words, selfish greed in acts.

Another lame personal attack on me. Definitely a pattern here. Where is the selfish greed in my acts? If I was selfish, I'd be a Republican, screaming and yelling about how my salary and capital gains are overtaxed. 10 years ago, I was living in my grandparents garage, going to an inner city school, and eating cup noodles. Now I make reasonable money, by no means a lot in this area, and I try to invest it wisely, because that's all I have to fall back on if something were to happen to me. I don't plan to apologize to you for doing honest investing in what I want to invest in.

So what you're saying is that the morality of selfishness is defined solely by political affiliation? :laugh:

Huh? What? What exactly is immoral about investing money? Is Warren Buffet immoral too?

No, immorality (among other things) is not walking your own talk. That was my point. There was no personal attack on my part, except that I (in a strongly worded fashion due to my own personal disgust) pointed out that you've washed your hands of your own actions by mindlessly letting partisan affiliation define morality for you. Very much like a Christian who goes to church on Sunday, sins the rest of the week, but is still conceited about his fine prospects for eternal salvation. Or like I said, a wineglass socialist. If you're not familiar with that expression, it's used to describe the hypocrites who like to bemoan the fate of the poor over expensive bottles of wine at a fancy restaurant (or over $5 coffees at Starbucks), and bitch about these same selfish Republicans you complained about here, while at the same they never give or donate a single damned penny or minute of time on their own.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
So wait, am I getting this right, does Vic work at a bank? Bank that is probably now stuck with loans whose collateral's value is going to get decimated. No more suckers to sell ARMs too? Too bad, so sad. Seems like he is really pissed off that the gravy train is leaving, so he is attacking those of us who are hopping on the it to make some money on the return trip.

Now THIS is a personal attack. And an untruthful one at that. The market I happen to work in is still seeing appreciating values. Nor do I work in servicing. And fixed rates have been more profitable for banks to originate than ARMs for the past few years now (as long as the yield curves have been inverted).

Based on your comments here, you better educate yourself about how RE works before you get screwed on your investments. And education involves listening to those who actually have knowledge as opposed to letting your paranoia discount such knowledge by imagining a conflict of interest. I'm gonna say this again, competent RE professionals can make money no matter which way the market goes. In fact, if the market did tank, I'd probably make money than if it remained indefinitely at its current semi-stagnant state. How do you think that fund of yours is making money for you? Believe it or not, not everyone acts solely from self-interest. I am genuinely concerned about poor people losing their homes, and am particularly aghast at those who literally want to see that happen solely for their own personal profit.