Housing 2008/2009 Thread

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,481
3,978
126
I'm not going to put as much work into this any more. I'll still update it monthly, around the end of the month/beginning of the next month.

Animated roller coaster of inflation adjusted housing prices.

Dec 2009 Graph

Picture uses final data if available, revised data if final isn't available, and preliminary data for the latest data point. Final data can be found at:
[*]Existing sales and existing prices.
[*]New Sales, Table 1
[*]New Starts, Table 3

An Excel least squares linear fit is overlaid.
 
Last edited:

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,481
3,978
126
Here is a quick update on what happened in the last thread (year 2007):

Existing home sales dropped from 6.27M (Dec 2006) to 4.89M (Dec 2007). That is a 22% drop in a year. It is 33% off from its all time high of 7.27M (Jun 2005).

Existing home sale prices dropped from $222k (Dec 2006) to $208k (Dec 2007). That is a 6% drop in a year. It is 9.5% off from its all time high of $230k (July 2006), but since the price data isn't seasonally adjusted, you can't really compare a Dec number to a July number.

New home sales dropped from 1.019M (Dec 2006) to 0.604M (Dec 2007). That is a 41% drop in a year. It is 57% off from its all time high of 1.40M (Oct 2005).

New home starts dropped from 1.629M (Dec 2006) to 1.006M (Dec 2007). That is a 38% drop in a year. It is 56% off from its all time high of 2.265M (Jan 2006).

 

RightIsWrong

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2005
5,649
0
0
I'm not sure what is scarier.....seeing the drop from an annual quarter v. quarter comparison or from the annual quarter v. historical high quarter comparison and realizing that they are the exact same number because the highs were only a year ago.

Couple that with realizing that the new totals haven't merely dropped back to prior levels before the boom but have dropped to levels over a decade prior is truly a catastrophe in the making.

It's like being on a roller coaster........It was such a long slow ride up to the top and then one really quick trip back down.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
no end in sight... I would love a bigger home right now, but situation begs to differ.

New home sales fall by record amount

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer 35 minutes ago

Sales of new homes plunged by a record amount in 2007 while prices posted the weakest showing in 16 years, demonstrating the troubles builders are facing with a huge backlog of unsold homes.

The Commerce Department reported Monday that sales of new homes dropped by 26.4 percent last year to 774,000. That marked the worst sales year on record, surpassing the old mark of a 23.1 percent plunge in 1980.

The government reported that the median price of a new home barely budged last year, edging up a slight 0.2 percent to $246,900, the poorest showing since prices fell by 2.4 percent during the 1991 housing downturn.

The new report reinforced the view that housing is currently undergoing its worst downturn in more than two decades, with the slump threatening to surpass in some ways the severe housing recession of the early 1980s.


The housing weakness has dragged down overall growth and sent shockwaves through the rest of the economy including the financial sector, which is dealing with billions of dollars in losses in subprime mortgages. Some analysts are worried that the fallout could become so severe it will drag the entire country into a recession.

The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut a key interest rate by the largest amount in more than two decades last week following an emergency meeting, and it is expected the Fed will cut rates further at a regular rate-setting meeting this week.

The 26.4 percent drop in sales for 2007 represented weakness in every part of the country except the Northeast, where sales posted a small 1.6 percent advance. Sales recorded declines of 32.2 percent in the West, 26.7 percent in the Midwest and 26.3 percent in the South.

The year ended on a weak note with new home sales in December falling by 4.7 percent after an even sharper 12.6 percent decline in November.

While the median home price for the entire year was up slightly, the median price of homes sold in December was $219,200. That was down 10.4 percent from a year ago, the biggest 12-month price drop in 37 years.

Analysts said that prices will likely keep falling in early 2008 as builders continue to struggle to work down the glut of homes.

It would take 9.6 months to eliminate the backlog of unsold new homes at the December sales pace, the longest stretch of time since the month's supply stood at 10.3 months in October 1981.

The severe credit crunch that hit in August has made the troubles in housing worse because it has prompted banks and other lenders to tighten their standards, making it harder for prospective buyers to qualify for loans. Also adding to the problems facing prospective sellers is the rising tide of mortgage defaults, which are dumping more homes on an already glutted market.

The big fall in new home sales followed earlier reports that sales of existing homes fell by 13 percent in 2007, the biggest drop since 1982, while construction of new homes dropped by 24.8 percent last year, the biggest fall since a record decline in 1980.

Story of the day
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
I went to a new home auction yesterday. Fuming that I didnt find out about it sooner so I could arrange funding. Most houses were going for 50-60 cents on the dollar. Most of them went for 80-100 bucks a square foot. Some real steals in there. One builder bought up a row of condos and said he was putting down the hammer and buying up as much as he could as he couldnt build them for this cheap.

 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
Originally posted by: Genx87
I went to a new home auction yesterday. Fuming that I didnt find out about it sooner so I could arrange funding. Most houses were going for 50-60 cents on the dollar. Most of them went for 80-100 bucks a square foot. Some real steals in there. One builder bought up a row of condos and said he was putting down the hammer and buying up as much as he could as he couldnt build them for this cheap.

didn't you just buy home for 225K in Austin? Where do you find auctions like that?
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
I live in Albertville and I bought right on the edge of the cliff in July of 05 hehe.
In a way wish i would have waited a couple of years and bought in on one of these homes. I could have got twice the home for the same price.

My dad found out about it a day before it happened. It required a registration and you had to be pre-approved for funding. you show up, they sign you in, give you a number. Then you make a bid and pay them the same day.
 

RightIsWrong

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2005
5,649
0
0
Originally posted by: Trianon
Originally posted by: Genx87
I went to a new home auction yesterday. Fuming that I didnt find out about it sooner so I could arrange funding. Most houses were going for 50-60 cents on the dollar. Most of them went for 80-100 bucks a square foot. Some real steals in there. One builder bought up a row of condos and said he was putting down the hammer and buying up as much as he could as he couldnt build them for this cheap.

didn't you just buy home for 225K in Austin? Where do you find auctions like that?

I think that you might be thinking about me. I just bought a 3200 sq. ft. home for ~$60/sqft. in a master-planned golf community. It also happens to be near <1/2 mile from what is considered the fastest growing intersection in Texas and is in the 15 fastest growing county in the US.

I figured that I can ride out the downturn/correction and once all of the new construction of commercial/retail finishes...I will come out pretty strong.

Near this community are two brand new hospitals, an Ikea, an outlet mall, a new shopping plaza currently being built, a CVS and Walgreens, a few restaurants, a medical office suite coming in, a community college, Texas A&M school of nursing and a bunch of other projects slated for 08/09.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Originally posted by: Trianon
Originally posted by: Genx87
I went to a new home auction yesterday. Fuming that I didnt find out about it sooner so I could arrange funding. Most houses were going for 50-60 cents on the dollar. Most of them went for 80-100 bucks a square foot. Some real steals in there. One builder bought up a row of condos and said he was putting down the hammer and buying up as much as he could as he couldnt build them for this cheap.

didn't you just buy home for 225K in Austin? Where do you find auctions like that?

I think that you might be thinking about me. I just bought a 3200 sq. ft. home for ~$60/sqft. in a master-planned golf community. It also happens to be near <1/2 mile from what is considered the fastest growing intersection in Texas and is in the 15 fastest growing county in the US.

I figured that I can ride out the downturn/correction and once all of the new construction of commercial/retail finishes...I will come out pretty strong.

Near this community are two brand new hospitals, an Ikea, an outlet mall, a new shopping plaza currently being built, a CVS and Walgreens, a few restaurants, a medical office suite coming in, a community college, Texas A&M school of nursing and a bunch of other projects slated for 08/09.

Sounds like a kickass location. Congrats.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
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www.conkurent.com
Originally posted by: Genx87
I live in Albertville and I bought right on the edge of the cliff in July of 05 hehe.
In a way wish i would have waited a couple of years and bought in on one of these homes. I could have got twice the home for the same price.

My dad found out about it a day before it happened. It required a registration and you had to be pre-approved for funding. you show up, they sign you in, give you a number. Then you make a bid and pay them the same day.

I see, where can I find registration for similar auctions in IL?
 

RightIsWrong

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2005
5,649
0
0
Originally posted by: Trianon
Originally posted by: Genx87
I live in Albertville and I bought right on the edge of the cliff in July of 05 hehe.
In a way wish i would have waited a couple of years and bought in on one of these homes. I could have got twice the home for the same price.

My dad found out about it a day before it happened. It required a registration and you had to be pre-approved for funding. you show up, they sign you in, give you a number. Then you make a bid and pay them the same day.

I see, where can I find registration for similar auctions in IL?

This site might be a good starting point.
 

RightIsWrong

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2005
5,649
0
0
Originally posted by: Genx87
60/foot is cheap as hell! Lucky you!

Dang it....I typo'ed and almost cried at the thought of being that low....

Should have been $69/foot. We still thought that it was pretty incredible when last summer the avg was over $90/foot.
 

maddogchen

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2004
8,903
2
76
still haven't really felt it where I live here in CA. My parent's neighbor sold his 5 bedroom house recently for $956,000. He made over $200,000 in 6 years.
 

glugglug

Diamond Member
Jun 9, 2002
5,340
1
81
Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I'm not sure what is scarier.....seeing the drop from an annual quarter v. quarter comparison or from the annual quarter v. historical high quarter comparison and realizing that they are the exact same number because the highs were only a year ago.

Couple that with realizing that the new totals haven't merely dropped back to prior levels before the boom but have dropped to levels over a decade prior is truly a catastrophe in the making.
Where have they dropped to levels over a decade prior? Around here while prices have started to drop substantially, they are still FAR higher than they were in 2006.

Oh, and around here, there ARE places going for $60/sq ft. but that is monthly rent, not sale price. Hell, some of the commercial space on the UES is over $1000/sq ft per month.
 

RightIsWrong

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2005
5,649
0
0
Originally posted by: glugglug
Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I'm not sure what is scarier.....seeing the drop from an annual quarter v. quarter comparison or from the annual quarter v. historical high quarter comparison and realizing that they are the exact same number because the highs were only a year ago.

Couple that with realizing that the new totals haven't merely dropped back to prior levels before the boom but have dropped to levels over a decade prior is truly a catastrophe in the making.
Where have they dropped to levels over a decade prior? Around here while prices have started to drop substantially, they are still FAR higher than they were in 2006.

Oh, and around here, there ARE places going for $60/sq ft. but that is monthly rent, not sale price. Hell, some of the commercial space on the UES is over $1000/sq ft per month.

Just read the news some time.

Sales of newly built homes across the United States fell 4.7 percent in December to the lowest level in almost 13 years as a national housing slump showed no signs of easing.

Sales of new homes plummeted a record 26.4 percent last year while the median price of a new home edged up just 0.2 percent, the worst showing since 1991, the Commerce Department said.

New-Homes Sales Hit 12-Year Low
New-home sales tumbled 4.7% from the previous month to the lowest mark in 12 years during December, the Commerce Department said. The median price of a new home fell 10% from a year earlier to $219,200. For all of 2007, sales of new homes dropped by 26%. December's pace of 604,000 units sold was the worst since 559,000 in February 1995. Economists had forecast December sales at an annual rate of 650,000.

 

RightIsWrong

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2005
5,649
0
0
Originally posted by: glugglug
Sales rates have dropped that much, yes. I thought you were referring to prices.

Sorry for the ambiguity.

I still took the plunge though figuring that rent is going to increase with the buyer pool chlorinated and the interest rates dropping. I figured that I may take a short term hit but it should rebound with all of the new construction (commercial, retail and residential) that the values will increase once the fears are even slightly alleviated.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Anyone notice that mortgage rates have jumped up the last few weeks? Almost 7% for a jumbo now.


 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Originally posted by: Trianon
Originally posted by: Genx87
I went to a new home auction yesterday. Fuming that I didnt find out about it sooner so I could arrange funding. Most houses were going for 50-60 cents on the dollar. Most of them went for 80-100 bucks a square foot. Some real steals in there. One builder bought up a row of condos and said he was putting down the hammer and buying up as much as he could as he couldnt build them for this cheap.

didn't you just buy home for 225K in Austin? Where do you find auctions like that?

I think that you might be thinking about me. I just bought a 3200 sq. ft. home for ~$60/sqft. in a master-planned golf community. It also happens to be near <1/2 mile from what is considered the fastest growing intersection in Texas and is in the 15 fastest growing county in the US.

I figured that I can ride out the downturn/correction and once all of the new construction of commercial/retail finishes...I will come out pretty strong.

Near this community are two brand new hospitals, an Ikea, an outlet mall, a new shopping plaza currently being built, a CVS and Walgreens, a few restaurants, a medical office suite coming in, a community college, Texas A&M school of nursing and a bunch of other projects slated for 08/09.

Sounds like a nice neighborhood. What architecture styles do you have in your neighborhood, hopefully not all ranchers?

3,200 ft² is a pretty decent size, hope you kept enough in reserve to put in energy efficient appliances and such to make sure the utilities don't bust your balls.


 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,543
651
126
Here in Cambridge, MA. A new townhouse listed for $499k had ten offers and sold for $549k just a few weeks ago.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Here in Cambridge, MA. A new townhouse listed for $499k had ten offers and sold for $549k just a few weeks ago.

Quite the opposite trend in Chicagoland, my friend just sold his place for 30K loss after having it for 2 years, house was on the market for 5 months, he had to move due to a job relocation.
 
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