Housing Thread...5/26/09 - Case-shiller down another 2.1 percent, no bottom yet

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Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,381
96
86
A household earning the median U.S. family income for can now afford a home of $277,000, according to NAR. That's well above the national median home price, which was $198,600 in 2008

Isnt the median household income in the US 60K or something? So the NAR is advocating 4.5x your income as house as affordable? hahaha, idiots.
 

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
A household earning the median U.S. family income for can now afford a home of $277,000, according to NAR. That's well above the national median home price, which was $198,600 in 2008

Isnt the median household income in the US 60K or something? So the NAR is advocating 4.5x your income as house as affordable? hahaha, idiots.

Anything above 200k scares me and that's about 1.17 times our total income. I've always felt that you should try to afford the income as if you only had one salary. That way if something goes wrong, a complete loss of job won't force you out of home.
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
0
0
Senators push for more housing help in stimulus

Here are three ideas likely to show up in amendments:

Create a 4% mortgage: Senate Republicans are likely to introduce a provision that would encourage lenders to offer a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 4% for a limited period of time. The loans would only be available to credit-worthy home buyers and homeowners seeking to refinance.

...

Expand home buyer credit: Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., said last week he would propose an expansion of a temporary $7,500 first-time home buyer credit so that it applies to all purchases of primary residences.

...

Hold off on foreclosures: Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., told reporters last week that he would like a provision in the stimulus package that would impose a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures. Dodd may consider other housing measures as well.

The first two are interesting, the last is useless.

Obama is also supposed to release some comprehensive housing plan...
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Well with deflation in place, to answer OP's question, I think we have another 20-30% to go in housing prices. I am honestly thinking 2000-01 levels would be a 'fair' valuation, but obviously its going to overshoot.

There is simply too much inventory out there and not enough potential buyers.

1 thing to note. From about 2007 to today most 'sub prime' loans that were going to bust have busted. There is a second massive wave coming of near prime / teaser / alt a / interest only loans that are going to start resetting soon. THAT will be quite interesting.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,563
9
81
The first item could actually obliterate the market temporarily and really seize things up. I've got an offer on the table right now to buy, but I'm probably going to pull it. Why would I buy right now at ~5% if it sounds like 4% is coming?

Same goes for number two. Right now it's a first time buyer credit so we don't qualify, but if there's a chance of getting an interest free $7500 loan I'm going to wait it out.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: BoberFett
The first item could actually obliterate the market temporarily and really seize things up. I've got an offer on the table right now to buy, but I'm probably going to pull it. Why would I buy right now at ~5% if it sounds like 4% is coming?

Same goes for number two. Right now it's a first time buyer credit so we don't qualify, but if there's a chance of getting an interest free $7500 loan I'm going to wait it out.

If you signed an offer letter, you have to honor it. If the person on the other end gets pissed enoug they can sue you.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,381
96
86
Originally posted by: BoberFett
The first item could actually obliterate the market temporarily and really seize things up. I've got an offer on the table right now to buy, but I'm probably going to pull it. Why would I buy right now at ~5% if it sounds like 4% is coming?

Same goes for number two. Right now it's a first time buyer credit so we don't qualify, but if there's a chance of getting an interest free $7500 loan I'm going to wait it out.

We'd probably be at or near the bottom of this thing already if the govt didnt try to prop the market up (and fail) every time, and we'd save a lot of taxpayer dollars in the interim.

The 4% thing is potentially disastrous, what to prevent the bank from charging 43834738% interest when they know the government is going to pick up anything above 4%?

The alt-a/option loans have already started recasting due to automatic resets when LTV hits a certain percentage, these will go strong for the next 2 years and wipe out previously not-as-hard-hit upper end areas (SF Bay Area, NY, etc..) FWIW< I think the low end subprime home market is nearing a bottom, most declines from here on out will be on the upper end.

 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
0
0
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Originally posted by: BoberFett
The first item could actually obliterate the market temporarily and really seize things up. I've got an offer on the table right now to buy, but I'm probably going to pull it. Why would I buy right now at ~5% if it sounds like 4% is coming?

Same goes for number two. Right now it's a first time buyer credit so we don't qualify, but if there's a chance of getting an interest free $7500 loan I'm going to wait it out.

We'd probably be at or near the bottom of this thing already if the govt didnt try to prop the market up (and fail) every time, and we'd save a lot of taxpayer dollars in the interim.

The 4% thing is potentially disastrous, what to prevent the bank from charging 43834738% interest when they know the government is going to pick up anything above 4%?

The alt-a/option loans have already started recasting due to automatic resets when LTV hits a certain percentage, these will go strong for the next 2 years and wipe out previously not-as-hard-hit upper end areas (SF Bay Area, NY, etc..) FWIW< I think the low end subprime home market is nearing a bottom, most declines from here on out will be on the upper end.
The numbers seem to agree, it seems all the increase in home sales is on the lower end stuff. Renting just isn't a bad option right now

 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: alchemize
The numbers seem to agree, it seems all the increase in home sales is on the lower end stuff. Renting just isn't a bad option right now

The home sales do tend to be on the lower end, but also remember that the "lower end" stuff was going for a lot more just 2 years ago. They are lower end in price right now but they are not lower end in quality. I just put an offer on a home for 240k and it was last purchased in 2006 for over 450k. This place is really nice too. It is a great time to buy if you are looking to get some serious bang for you buck.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,563
9
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: BoberFett
The first item could actually obliterate the market temporarily and really seize things up. I've got an offer on the table right now to buy, but I'm probably going to pull it. Why would I buy right now at ~5% if it sounds like 4% is coming?

Same goes for number two. Right now it's a first time buyer credit so we don't qualify, but if there's a chance of getting an interest free $7500 loan I'm going to wait it out.

If you signed an offer letter, you have to honor it. If the person on the other end gets pissed enoug they can sue you.

The seller hasn't accepted. It's a short sale and we've been waiting on an answer from the bank for about four weeks now.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: BoberFett
The first item could actually obliterate the market temporarily and really seize things up. I've got an offer on the table right now to buy, but I'm probably going to pull it. Why would I buy right now at ~5% if it sounds like 4% is coming?

Same goes for number two. Right now it's a first time buyer credit so we don't qualify, but if there's a chance of getting an interest free $7500 loan I'm going to wait it out.

If you signed an offer letter, you have to honor it. If the person on the other end gets pissed enoug they can sue you.

The seller hasn't accepted. It's a short sale and we've been waiting on an answer from the bank for about four weeks now.

That can take a while, I had a few friends buy short sales and the wait was from 3-12 weeks.... banks don't move quickly on this.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: BoberFett
The first item could actually obliterate the market temporarily and really seize things up. I've got an offer on the table right now to buy, but I'm probably going to pull it. Why would I buy right now at ~5% if it sounds like 4% is coming?

Same goes for number two. Right now it's a first time buyer credit so we don't qualify, but if there's a chance of getting an interest free $7500 loan I'm going to wait it out.

If you signed an offer letter, you have to honor it. If the person on the other end gets pissed enoug they can sue you.

The seller hasn't accepted. It's a short sale and we've been waiting on an answer from the bank for about four weeks now.

That can take a while, I had a few friends buy short sales and the wait was from 3-12 weeks.... banks don't move quickly on this.

If I am not mistaken, the real problem is often due to the financial stuff between the original seller and the bank not being completed yet. Often times, the original sellers try to draw things out in hopes of saving their home. Once it is complete, it does not take as long.

I could be wrong though. Someone with more direct experience between the two situations with short sales (before and after the financial stuff) chiming in would be helpful.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,563
9
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: BoberFett
The first item could actually obliterate the market temporarily and really seize things up. I've got an offer on the table right now to buy, but I'm probably going to pull it. Why would I buy right now at ~5% if it sounds like 4% is coming?

Same goes for number two. Right now it's a first time buyer credit so we don't qualify, but if there's a chance of getting an interest free $7500 loan I'm going to wait it out.

If you signed an offer letter, you have to honor it. If the person on the other end gets pissed enoug they can sue you.

The seller hasn't accepted. It's a short sale and we've been waiting on an answer from the bank for about four weeks now.

That can take a while, I had a few friends buy short sales and the wait was from 3-12 weeks.... banks don't move quickly on this.

And in this case it's Countrywide, who I've been told is among the worst to deal with on short sales. I may pull the offer just so I don't have a $300K contract blowing in the wind with no idea where it's at.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Iceland is or was once, one of the most prosperous countries in the world with a nominal GDP per capita of $64000.
It was a fallacious GDP. Their economy was built on more of a farce than the US', their growth each year was unreasonably high and they were living on borrowed time to an amount that would make an American banker blush. So, the higher you get the more it hurts when you hit the ground.
Rightfully so, the brave Icelandic people protested with riots and now the corrupt government of Iceland has been toppled. Hopefully now the Icelandic people can get a government that puts the best interest of theirs at heart, not the bloodsucking international bankers like George Soros and Hank Paulson.
In a democratic system, the government is the people. It screwed up, they screwed up, just as in the US. Greed is the underlying problem across the board, of course.

Anyway, the links you have from Russia and all that are laughable. Get a clue.
Anything above 200k scares me and that's about 1.17 times our total income. I've always felt that you should try to afford the income as if you only had one salary. That way if something goes wrong, a complete loss of job won't force you out of home.
1.17 is very conservative. I agree about the one income thing, though. We've basically always tried to make it such that if one of us lost our job we could either break even or come damn close to it if we cut to the bone. Life is far too unpredictable to be comfortable, IMO, living as if both incomes will be there indefinitely.

Foreclosure moritorium is brainless, btw. The 4% would be fun for a refi
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
0
0
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
A household earning the median U.S. family income for can now afford a home of $277,000, according to NAR. That's well above the national median home price, which was $198,600 in 2008

Isnt the median household income in the US 60K or something? So the NAR is advocating 4.5x your income as house as affordable? hahaha, idiots.
I'm still scratching my head where they got that number. But they are realtors, so ooh look at the lovely trim in this room!

What IS interesting is their methodology is sound and consistent, basically looks at median income, median house prices and mortgage rates...

Here's a blog with a graph. Again, maybe a good sign...


http://economix.blogs.nytimes....bility-at-record-high/

Holy crap look at 1977-1987...



So the contrary viewpoint to that is ignoring interest rates and looking at disposable income (and new home pricing)? But new home pricing is driven quite a bit by larger square footages, I think you would have to adjust for that...

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/298.pdf

This one needs 2008 added to it!
 

Ozoned

Diamond Member
Mar 22, 2004
5,578
0
0
Originally posted by: alchemize
A possible "bottom" indicator today...

Pending home sales rise in December

Offtopic...say, where is Dave at lately...? I just don't feel right without my threads being trolled by him...

I think he is pissed that someone stole his oil thread.

EDIT: I was just informed by Dave that Dave was permabanned. :Q
R.I.P.
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
0
0
Originally posted by: Ozoned
Originally posted by: alchemize
A possible "bottom" indicator today...

Pending home sales rise in December

Offtopic...say, where is Dave at lately...? I just don't feel right without my threads being trolled by him...

I think he is pissed that someone stole his oil thread.

EDIT: I was just informed by Dave that Dave was permabanned. :Q
R.I.P.
He told me the same thing. :brokenheart:
No wonder P&N hasn't been as much fun lately. I disagree with that decision but not my forum.
 

CLite

Golden Member
Dec 6, 2005
1,726
7
76
Originally posted by: alchemize
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
A household earning the median U.S. family income for can now afford a home of $277,000, according to NAR. That's well above the national median home price, which was $198,600 in 2008

Isnt the median household income in the US 60K or something? So the NAR is advocating 4.5x your income as house as affordable? hahaha, idiots.
I'm still scratching my head where they got that number. But they are realtors, so ooh look at the lovely trim in this room!

What IS interesting is their methodology is sound and consistent, basically looks at median income, median house prices and mortgage rates...

Here's a blog with a graph. Again, maybe a good sign...


http://economix.blogs.nytimes....bility-at-record-high/

Holy crap look at 1977-1987...



So the contrary viewpoint to that is ignoring interest rates and looking at disposable income (and new home pricing)? But new home pricing is driven quite a bit by larger square footages, I think you would have to adjust for that...

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/298.pdf

This one needs 2008 added to it!

Interesting graph Alchemize, though it is a little confusing looking at the 2006-2007 troughs and how they aren't that bad and then thinking of the crisis we are in currently.

I think a more interesting graph would be one that weighed in the households current debt, I believe this would probably skew it to show the 2006-2007 trough being far worse than the 81-82 trough, though I could be completely wrong.


 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
0
0
Senate Adds Homebuyer Tax Credit to Stimulus Bill

WASHINGTON ? The Senate on Wednesday voted to expand the economic stimulus package with a tax credit for homebuyers of up to $15,000, a provision championed by Republicans as addressing a root cause of the recession.

The vote to add the tax credit, at a cost of about $18.5 billion, came as Senate leaders seemed to be nearing completion of negotiations. The majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, suggested that a final vote on the stimulus plan could come on Thursday.
Well as a home seller (and upcoming home buyer) I welcome this one, hope they don't put that BS 150K income limit on it again. I know I'll pay it back in spades later but I'll take it right now
 

Ozoned

Diamond Member
Mar 22, 2004
5,578
0
0
Originally posted by: CLite
Originally posted by: alchemize
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
A household earning the median U.S. family income for can now afford a home of $277,000, according to NAR. That's well above the national median home price, which was $198,600 in 2008

Isnt the median household income in the US 60K or something? So the NAR is advocating 4.5x your income as house as affordable? hahaha, idiots.
I'm still scratching my head where they got that number. But they are realtors, so ooh look at the lovely trim in this room!

What IS interesting is their methodology is sound and consistent, basically looks at median income, median house prices and mortgage rates...

Here's a blog with a graph. Again, maybe a good sign...


http://economix.blogs.nytimes....bility-at-record-high/

Holy crap look at 1977-1987...



So the contrary viewpoint to that is ignoring interest rates and looking at disposable income (and new home pricing)? But new home pricing is driven quite a bit by larger square footages, I think you would have to adjust for that...

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/298.pdf

This one needs 2008 added to it!

Interesting graph Alchemize, though it is a little confusing looking at the 2006-2007 troughs and how they aren't that bad and then thinking of the crisis we are in currently.

I think a more interesting graph would be one that weighed in the households current debt, I believe this would probably skew it to show the 2006-2007 trough being far worse than the 81-82 trough, though I could be completely wrong.
How is your local economy in Kentucky?
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: alchemize
Senate Adds Homebuyer Tax Credit to Stimulus Bill

WASHINGTON ? The Senate on Wednesday voted to expand the economic stimulus package with a tax credit for homebuyers of up to $15,000, a provision championed by Republicans as addressing a root cause of the recession.

The vote to add the tax credit, at a cost of about $18.5 billion, came as Senate leaders seemed to be nearing completion of negotiations. The majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, suggested that a final vote on the stimulus plan could come on Thursday.
Well as a home seller (and upcoming home buyer) I welcome this one, hope they don't put that BS 150K income limit on it again. I know I'll pay it back in spades later but I'll take it right now
QFT
 

CLite

Golden Member
Dec 6, 2005
1,726
7
76
Originally posted by: Ozoned
Originally posted by: CLite
Originally posted by: alchemize
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
A household earning the median U.S. family income for can now afford a home of $277,000, according to NAR. That's well above the national median home price, which was $198,600 in 2008

Isnt the median household income in the US 60K or something? So the NAR is advocating 4.5x your income as house as affordable? hahaha, idiots.
I'm still scratching my head where they got that number. But they are realtors, so ooh look at the lovely trim in this room!

What IS interesting is their methodology is sound and consistent, basically looks at median income, median house prices and mortgage rates...

Here's a blog with a graph. Again, maybe a good sign...


http://economix.blogs.nytimes....bility-at-record-high/

Holy crap look at 1977-1987...



So the contrary viewpoint to that is ignoring interest rates and looking at disposable income (and new home pricing)? But new home pricing is driven quite a bit by larger square footages, I think you would have to adjust for that...

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/298.pdf

This one needs 2008 added to it!

Interesting graph Alchemize, though it is a little confusing looking at the 2006-2007 troughs and how they aren't that bad and then thinking of the crisis we are in currently.

I think a more interesting graph would be one that weighed in the households current debt, I believe this would probably skew it to show the 2006-2007 trough being far worse than the 81-82 trough, though I could be completely wrong.
How is your local economy in Kentucky?

uhm what? Is this supposed to be a dig? I wouldn't be particularly offended even if I lived in Kentucky (I live in Hoboken, NJ), but... yeah I'm just confused.



 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: alchemize
Senate Adds Homebuyer Tax Credit to Stimulus Bill

WASHINGTON ? The Senate on Wednesday voted to expand the economic stimulus package with a tax credit for homebuyers of up to $15,000, a provision championed by Republicans as addressing a root cause of the recession.

The vote to add the tax credit, at a cost of about $18.5 billion, came as Senate leaders seemed to be nearing completion of negotiations. The majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, suggested that a final vote on the stimulus plan could come on Thursday.
Well as a home seller (and upcoming home buyer) I welcome this one, hope they don't put that BS 150K income limit on it again. I know I'll pay it back in spades later but I'll take it right now

It's possible but that is not a guarantee. People are being forced to buy homes in order to get that credit and such purchases will help the economy a lot right now. It is one thing to just hand out a tax credit and hope that it gets spent on the right things. It is another thing entirely to require money being spent on the right things and then handing out the credit.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
It's possible but that is not a guarantee. People are being forced to buy homes in order to get that credit and such purchases will help the economy a lot right now. It is one thing to just hand out money and hope that it gets spent on the right things. It is another thing entirely to require money being spent on the right things and then handing out money.
What's to say real estate is a better use of the money than a new car or vacation to Disney Land? $15k is still basically meaningless in many markets, where median home prices have been obliterated.
 
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