Housing Thread...5/26/09 - Case-shiller down another 2.1 percent, no bottom yet

[dullard]

Originally posted by: alchemize
Existing Home Sales Up: NAR Says Buy Now
Fucking realtors..."look at the lovely fixtures" :roll:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist is a very biased source. Halfway into the bust, he was still spouting nonsense. He kept saying that housing prices have never gone down year/year even while publishing data that housing prices are down from that time last year. Only if you read the fine print did you see that he limited his comment to a specific month in which prices hadn't dropped year/year. He always paints the housing market in the most rosey picture, since realtors income is proportional to the number of houses sold AND proportional to the selling price. They are doubly affected by the downturn.

That said, I still use some of Yun's data in my graphs. I trust his data, just not his comments on the data.

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: eleison

Originally posted by: alchemize

There were 841 homes sold, down from 1,412 in February 2008 and from 1,667 in February 2007.Prices fell to $218,250 from $290,000 in February 2008.

Wow that's close to 70k drop... I bought my home for 200k right by the lake around 2001. I wonder how much its worth now. Hopefully, its still worth something

611K-->490K /= 70K ?

Eleison's comment was ill-aimed, but true. I bolded what he was posting about. I do see how it may have looked like he was commenting on the 611K example (ill-aimed). Sorry for the nested quotes though.

 

[heyheybooboo]

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose from a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.49 million units in January to 4.72 million units in February, almost half of the sales being either foreclosures or short sales.

I also think it's junk statistics when they take one month of data and extrapolate for an entire year.

"" There will be 2.4 million foreclosures in 2009! ""

Realtors ... sheesh

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose from a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.49 million units in January to 4.72 million units in February, almost half of the sales being either foreclosures or short sales.

I also think it's junk statistics when they take one month of data and extrapolate for an entire year.

"" There will be 2.4 million foreclosures in 2009! ""

Realtors ... sheesh

Pretty close, actually

CRL Congressional District Foreclosure Projections - 2-17-09

 

[alchemize]

Tiny blip in new home sales. Doesn't take much to impact these, peak was 4x this amount.

Thanks to the government's aggressive efforts to free up mortgage lending, February may prove to have been the month that the housing sector started to move up from the bottom. New home sales, like existing home sales on Monday, proved better than expected, at a 337,000 million unit annual rate. January, at 322,000, and December, at 371,000, were both revised higher by a net 40,000. The month-to-month gain is a sizable 4.7 percent with the year-on-year rate a bit less cataclysmic than prior months at -41.1 percent. Supply on the market fell to 12.2 months from 12.9 months, still quite swollen but at least an improvement.

Unlike prices for existing homes, prices on the new home side are not improving at least yet with the median price down another 2.9 percent in the month to $200,900. The year-on-year deteriorated further, now at -18.1 percent. But price declines on the new home side are less critical than for existing homes, where lower prices are driving out marginal homeowners.

People are bargain shopping and new home builders are unloading homes, often below costs.

 

[Slew Foot]

http://www.nctimes.com/article...238825758d0073675e.txt

FHA loans defaulting faster than subprime mortgages. Im sure glad us taxpayers are backing Freddie and Fannie.


"Once considered among the safest loans available, government-insured mortgages issued last year have performed worse than the subprime loans that kicked off the collapse of the nation's housing market, according to data from a research firm.

So far, government bailouts have put up to $2.9 trillion of taxpayer money at risk, according to the government official in charge of overseeing all bailouts.

A huge level of defaults on loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration, which analysts called "stunning," raise the specter of further market turmoil and more taxpayer funds sent toward fixing the mortgage crisis."

 

[IronWing]

Originally posted by: alchemize
My wife is in love with this McMansion
Sold for $611K, now they can't even get $490K for it, keep cutting, it's not selling...

Dang, that thing is half way to Iowa.

BTW, WTF with the Ronald Reagan Memorial Tollway? When did that happen?

 

[Slew Foot]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...cent-apf-14940685.html

Foreclosure rates skyrocketing. Remember the 90 day holiday banks were placing on new forecolusre? Its over and the flood is coming.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: ironwing

Originally posted by: alchemize
My wife is in love with this McMansion
Sold for $611K, now they can't even get $490K for it, keep cutting, it's not selling...

Dang, that thing is half way to Iowa.

BTW, WTF with the Ronald Reagan Memorial Tollway? When did that happen?

Thanks for the bump - reminded me to check it again. $469 and still no takers, almost a 25% drop.

Last month's housing starts turned out to be an anomoly as I thought it was...

In March, housing starts reversed course, posting a sharp decline. Starts fell back 10.8 percent in March, following a 17.2 percent rebound the month before. The March pace of 0.510 million units annualized was down 48.4 percent year-on-year. The latest starts number was significantly below the consensus forecast for 0.570 million units. The reversal in starts was led by the multifamily component which plunged 29.0 percent while single-family starts were unchanged.

By region, the fall in starts was led by a monthly 26.3 percent drop in the Northeast along with a 16.8 percent decline in the South. Starts rose in the Midwest and Northwest, posting gains of 15.9 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively.

Permits also resumed a downtrend, declining 9.0 percent in March, after a rebound of 6.2 percent in February. The March permit pace of 0.513 million units annualized was down 45.0 percent on a year-ago basis.

The latest housing starts report shows that this sector remains under pressure from excess supply of unsold homes. This is another number that will help make first quarter GDP quite negative. However, March starts probably have worked beyond large seasonal swings in the prior two months related to unseasonable weather (cold and wet in January in the South and very mild in February). While there has been positive news in housing recently in terms of buyer traffic and refinancing, it probably is too early to expect a rebound in starts. For homebuilders, the negative news of a spike in foreclosure rates will outweigh the recent positives.

 

[alchemize]

More evidence that last months stats were a dead cat bounce:

Existing home sales weakened further in March, down 3.0 percent to an annual sales rate of 4.57 million units. Weakness was spread evenly between single-family homes, down 2.8 percent, and the much smaller condo component which was down 4.1 percent. Supply on the market remains heavy, at 9.8 months vs. 9.7 months in February. Distressed sales are rising, at 50 percent of March sales vs. 45 percent in February.

There is good news in the report as the median price firmed 4.2 percent to $175,200, for a year-on-year decline of -12.4 percent. The year-on-year rate is severe but is improving. Yet government efforts to lower interest rates and limit foreclosures have yet to kick start the housing market. Stocks dipped in limited reaction to the report. New home sales data will be posted tomorrow.

Median price firming doesn't mean anything to me, I think it means that higher priced homes are now going into foreclosure more often...

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: alchemize
More evidence that last months stats were a dead cat bounce:

Anyone who said last month was a positive sign was clearly wrong. Same goes with anyone who claims it was a dead cat bounce. Why? There just was no bounce at all. We are in statistical noise within a relatively flat period. There isn't a bounce nor a fall. Nov: 4.54M sold, Dec: 4.74M, Jan: 4.49M, Feb: 4.71M, Mar: 4.57M. We have been in a 4.49-4.75M range for the last five months.

Median price firming doesn't mean anything to me, I think it means that higher priced homes are now going into foreclosure more often...

I wouldn't take much stock in the median price movements from month to month. That data isn't annually adjusted. Jan/Feb is always the local minimum and even in this downturn Mar was always higher locally. Thus, you really can only use data when compared to the same point last year. And the fact is, prices are down 12.4%. You are correct that this isn't a sign of firming, but your second half of your statement almost went on to say that you belived that prices did firm.

 

[LegendKiller]

Latest Case-Shiller data...

SD looks to be recovering, most other cities still down significantly.

CS1

CS2

CS3

CS4

CS5

CS6

CS7

 

[alchemize]

Yep, although I'm going to take a bath selling my house in NE (if it ever sells), Chicago is starting to look like a freefall...other midwest cities starting to see faster drops also.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: alchemize
More evidence that last months stats were a dead cat bounce:

Anyone who said last month was a positive sign was clearly wrong. Same goes with anyone who claims it was a dead cat bounce. Why? There just was no bounce at all. We are in statistical noise within a relatively flat period. There isn't a bounce nor a fall. Nov: 4.54M sold, Dec: 4.74M, Jan: 4.49M, Feb: 4.71M, Mar: 4.57M. We have been in a 4.49-4.75M range for the last five months.

Median price firming doesn't mean anything to me, I think it means that higher priced homes are now going into foreclosure more often...

I wouldn't take much stock in the median price movements from month to month. That data isn't annually adjusted. Jan/Feb is always the local minimum and even in this downturn Mar was always higher locally. Thus, you really can only use data when compared to the same point last year. And the fact is, prices are down 12.4%. You are correct that this isn't a sign of firming, but your second half of your statement almost went on to say that you belived that prices did firm.

A dead cat...thump?

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: alchemize
Yep, although I'm going to take a bath selling my house in NE (if it ever sells), Chicago is starting to look like a freefall...other midwest cities starting to see faster drops also.

Yeah, the midwest and ATL seem to be getting worse, overall, faster than the average.

 

[alchemize]

This is disturbing. Banks tearing down new homes rather than bring them up to code.

 

[alchemize]

I don't think I updated from last weeks news:

Tiny improvement in purchase applications:

Housing reports have been on the upswing, at least most of the data but not MBA's purchase applications index which is lagging behind. But there was some improvement in the May 1 week as the purchase index rose 5.0 percent to 264.3, a still very weak level. In contrast to purchase applications, applications for refinancing are very strong, up another 1.2 percent to 5,169.3. Refinancing makes up 74.4 percent of all applications. Rock-bottom mortgage rates are behind the rise in refinancing though rates did move higher in the latest week with 30-year fixed loans averaging 4.79 percent. The outlook for the housing market is definitely improving but expectations won't take off until MBA's purchase index shows some life.

Tiny improvement in pending home sales:

Government efforts to push mortgage rates lower in combination with financing incentives and falling home prices may be turning the housing sector around at long last. The pending sales index rose 3.2 percent to 84.6 in March pointing to improvement in existing sales for April and May. Gains were centered in the Midwest and South, but a decline in the West, where the housing collapse is centered, does pose the only bad news in the report. Construction spending for March was also released at 10:00 ET and shows the first increase in six months. Markets showed no reaction to the reports at least initially, though they should give stocks an extra boost through the session and may also raise talk of easing toxic pressures on banks.

And now for some tragic comedy:

2005 article: Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust

Personally, I finally got an offer on my house. Basically the offer stands to pay the realtor $5K to absolve me of my loan and walk away from 100K in equity. Any other time I would laugh and ignore it, but let's see if they really want to buy my house and hope it's just a lowball.

 

[alchemize]

Housing starts circling the drain. Not much left to give before zero! They are down from a high of 2.2 million houses per month peak down to about 500K per month...

Housing starts in April fell sharply to a new record low for a series going back to 1959, largely on cutbacks in multifamily construction. Starts dropped another 12.8 percent, following an 8.5 percent decline in March. The April pace of 0.458 million units annualized was down 54.2 percent year-on-year and came in well below the market forecast for 0.540 million units. April's decrease was led by the multifamily component which plunged 46.1 percent while single-family starts edged up 2.8 percent.

By region, the fall in starts was led by a monthly 30.6 percent drop in the Northeast along with declines of 21.4 percent in the Midwest and 21.1 percent in the South. Starts rose in the West jumped 42.5 percent.

Permits also declined at the national level, falling 3.3 percent in April, after dropping 7.1 percent the month before. The April permit pace of 0.494 million units annualized was down 50.2 percent on a year-ago basis.

Equities should be disappointed by today's starts numbers. It appears that many have forgotten that starts are far downstream in the list of housing indicators. It should be expected that improvement in indicators such as the homebuilders housing market index or mortgage applications will take a long time to trickle down to actual new construction. This is especially the case as a spike in foreclosures is threatening to delay the sell down of housing inventories. Homebuilders clearly understand that any new construction will likely sit on the market for some time, having to compete with fire sale prices on foreclosures.

blog.anandtech.com
Got a contract on my house. Had to lose a small fortune on it, but I'll get it back within a year with higher cash flow.

Went and looked at a ton of open houses this weekend, and some new construction/model homes. Sign-in sheets were quite sparse. Very few real buyers out there, because nobody can sell their house or get financing. Sellers are unwilling to lose money, but eventually someone blinks (like me) or forecloses and takes a loss, driving prices down.

I think the middle/upper market is going to go through a lot of upheaval in the next year as layoffs continue. Layoffs impact real people that can actually afford houses as compared to the subprime idiots who had it coming.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: alchemize
Housing starts circling the drain. Not much left to give before zero! They are down from a high of 2.2 million houses per month peak down to about 500K per month...

You are a bit generous with those numbers (a drop of 77% from 2.2M to 500K). My records show the peak at 2.273 M and the low at 458K. That is a drop of 80%, with no signs of recovery yet. At that rate, which is unsustainable, there would be NO houses built in June 2010. This dead cat thump is still reverberating.

Got a contract on my house. Had to lose a small fortune on it, but I'll get it back within a year with higher cash flow.

Went and looked at a ton of open houses this weekend, and some new construction/model homes. Sign-in sheets were quite sparse. Very few real buyers out there, because nobody can sell their house or get financing. Sellers are unwilling to lose money, but eventually someone blinks (like me) or forecloses and takes a loss, driving prices down.

I've followed your story a bit (including the recent lowball offer). But I missed why you are selling and looking at another home. Don't be too hard on yourself for taking a loss. Your new home also will be sold to you much cheaper - negating much of the loss from your home.

I think the middle/upper market is going to go through a lot of upheaval in the next year as layoffs continue. Layoffs impact real people that can actually afford houses as compared to the subprime idiots who had it coming.

Exactly. That is why I've been saying that subprime was the tip of this iceberg. Countless posters on P&N complained at me for saying that though.

My blog: I called a real estate agent last week. He's sold my house before a couple of times and sold probably 80% of the houses in the neighborhood, although at 7% his fee is too high for my blood. He was supposed to give me an estimate yesterday but he never called. He claimed that he was impressed with the work I put into it. Now to see if I can get a good deal. I'd be thrilled if after all is said and done (including the 7% commission) that I come back with what I originally paid. That is probably not possible, but it might happen if I'm lucky. Most likely I'll gain a few thousand on the house but lose $12k on the commission.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: alchemize
This is disturbing. Banks tearing down new homes rather than bring them up to code.

Anything else on that beyond 2 minutes of youtube?

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: alchemize
Housing starts circling the drain. Not much left to give before zero! They are down from a high of 2.2 million houses per month peak down to about 500K per month...

You are a bit generous with those numbers (a drop of 77% from 2.2M to 500K). My records show the peak at 2.273 M and the low at 458K. That is a drop of 80%, with no signs of recovery yet. At that rate, which is unsustainable, there would be NO houses built in June 2010. This dead cat thump is still reverberating.

Got a contract on my house. Had to lose a small fortune on it, but I'll get it back within a year with higher cash flow.

Went and looked at a ton of open houses this weekend, and some new construction/model homes. Sign-in sheets were quite sparse. Very few real buyers out there, because nobody can sell their house or get financing. Sellers are unwilling to lose money, but eventually someone blinks (like me) or forecloses and takes a loss, driving prices down.

I've followed your story a bit (including the recent lowball offer). But I missed why you are selling and looking at another home. Don't be too hard on yourself for taking a loss. Your new home also will be sold to you much cheaper - negating much of the loss from your home.

I think the middle/upper market is going to go through a lot of upheaval in the next year as layoffs continue. Layoffs impact real people that can actually afford houses as compared to the subprime idiots who had it coming.

Exactly. That is why I've been saying that subprime was the tip of this iceberg. Countless posters on P&N complained at me for saying that though.

My blog: I called a real estate agent last week. He's sold my house before a couple of times and sold probably 80% of the houses in the neighborhood, although at 7% his fee is too high for my blood. He was supposed to give me an estimate yesterday but he never called. He claimed that he was impressed with the work I put into it. Now to see if I can get a good deal. I'd be thrilled if after all is said and done (including the 7% commission) that I come back with what I originally paid. That is probably not possible, but it might happen if I'm lucky. Most likely I'll gain a few thousand on the house but lose $12k on the commission.

I got a new job in 2008, and mistakenly thought I would be there for the long haul and bought our "dream house". Of course, I was wrong and ended up getting a new (better paying) job in 2009 and moving again. No sob story here, I took my licks and I knew what I was getting into, but still painful And like you said, I'm going to save probably $50-100K on my next house AND get a nicer one...

The realtor model is crap. No realtor ever works in either the buyer or sellers interests, they work for themselves. Can you imagine going to buy a new car and taking your own personal salesman with you that takes a cut???

I listed on MLS through a "listing broker", and capped the commission. I ended up paying closer to 2.5% comission that way...and still had showings because it wasn't a FSBO. Somehting worth looking into, you have to be willing to show your own house. The realtors will still come, whine about it, but they need income more than ever now.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: alchemize
This is disturbing. Banks tearing down new homes rather than bring them up to code.

Anything else on that beyond 2 minutes of youtube?

I saw another thread on it, can't remember where, but there was some justification for it. Basically the houses had been vanadalized, it was a development in the middle of nowhere, lots of liability, etc.

 

[StageLeft]

The realtor model is crap.

I agree, but we still use them. I'm not sure of any other profession in which people can make such good money on such a large scale for effectively being useless. Granted, some realtors are worth their money and sell a house quickly at good cost, but I think many get into that profession because they have no other skills, and the dynamics of it seem to somehow keep them in business. How many useless realtors have you met? I've met more useless than not.

 

[alchemize]

Case-Shiller down 2.1%, midwest, new york hardest hit. That trend is continuing, and I think it's got a ways to go as the layoff bubblehits...

Case-Shiller's composite-10 index for March fell the same 2.1 percent it did in February, while the composite-20 shows back-to-back 2.2 percent declines. Year-on-year rates continue to show little to no improvement, holding in the high negative teens. Rates of decline in hard-hit areas are deepening, not improving. Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco and Miami are posting mid-single digit monthly declines with year-on-year declines roughly 30 percent. Minneapolis is now sinking badly, down 6.1 percent in the month for a 23.3 percent year-on-year decline. Like Minneapolis, Detroit and New York also posted record monthly drops.

Raw data

 

[StageLeft]

My guess is the loss slowed while interest rates plummeted, but now with mortgages super low there's no ammunition left in that magazine, so we continue to see prices drop because of unemployment and what not.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: alchemize
This is disturbing. Banks tearing down new homes rather than bring them up to code.

Anything else on that beyond 2 minutes of youtube?

I saw another thread on it, can't remember where, but there was some justification for it. Basically the houses had been vanadalized, it was a development in the middle of nowhere, lots of liability, etc.

There was an article about such being done in CA.

The local government stated that the place (subdivision) had to be brought up to a satisfactory condition.
Fines and/or costs to complete the subdivision were more expensive that removal.