How did the pollsters get it wrong AGAIN?

[Ajay]

There are still a substantial number of mail in votes that need to be counted in key states that are very tight right now. If they break democratic, as was expected, then the electoral map could look much more favorable for Joe by the end of the day. Fingers crossed.

 

[ewdotson]

The DMR poll, at least, did a depressingly good job with Iowa.

 

[TeeJay1952]

IDK Is it the echo chamber effect? We block those we disagree with and that screws up perceptions?
I tip my hat to my conservative brothers and sisters and wonder how we will explain this to history.
I am the saddest MFer in history but I will survive.

 

[SmCaudata]

Nothing like voting for a candidate that supported legislation that disproportionately locked up minorities or his famous "you ain't black" line. Biden and the Progressheviks show minorities exactly where their place is.

He admitted he was wrong. I like a candidate that will do that.

For Trump. Nothing like voting for a candidate that is so unwilling to admit he was wrong, he will encourage hundreds of thousands to die.

 

[Greenman]

It's was supposed to be a Biden blowout.
He was leading by 10+ points for weeks before the election.
Now it's down to 4 states and Trump leads in all 4 (as of 5am).

Thought the pollsters learned from their mistakes from the 2016 election?

There's no Biden blowout.
How did the pollsters get it wrong again?

I don't know why they got it wrong, but it's clear their system no longer works.

 

[HomerJS]

Maybe you have missed the terrorist organization called BLM. They target houses with Trump signs.

I'm going to enjoy this Trump win more so than the last. I can't wait to see the riots from the snowflakes and the celebrities crying on TV. Its going to be fucking glorious.

Maybe you have missed out intel agencies have already stated the real terrorists are white nationalists. Why let fact get in the way of a lie? However lies seem to work for you people.

Was it BLM that rolled through a town shooting paintballs at people?
Was it BLM that surrounded a Biden bus on the highway?

 

[pmv]

Maybe you have missed the terrorist organization called BLM. They target houses with Trump signs.

I'm going to enjoy this Trump win more so than the last. I can't wait to see the riots from the snowflakes and the celebrities crying on TV. Its going to be fucking glorious.

Well we all saw the clip of that BLM truck convoy buzzing the poor Trump/Pence campaign bus, right?

 

[HomerJS]

Nothing like voting for a candidate that supported legislation that disproportionately locked up minorities or his famous "you ain't black" line. Biden and the Progressheviks show minorities exactly where their place is.

Why should I vote for a party that actively tries to keep people like me from voting?

 

[mikeymikec]

One theory I've heard is that some voters aren't sufficiently out of the bigot's closet to want to admit that they want to vote for a bigot so they lie to the pollsters.

One theory that I've considered over the years is that some people are under the misguided belief that their responsibility is to vote for whom they think will be the 'winning team'. I'm not referring to tactical voting here, just the idea that some people might want to feel like 'they won' by voting for the eventual winner.

As a side note I think it's a mistake to assume that most of the mail-in ballots will be for Biden. It's logical, but that doesn't make it true.

 

[pmv]

Nothing like voting for a candidate that supported legislation that disproportionately locked up minorities or his famous "you ain't black" line. Biden and the Progressheviks show minorities exactly where their place is.

It's so shamelessly dishonest when conservatives suddenly try to make attacks from the left. As if Republicans have a history of opposing the disproportionate incarceration of black Americans.

 

[eelw]

Wait for the final results before executing the pollsters. So far only thing they were way off is Miami-Dade area. Those damn Cubans.

 

[sportage]

Cell phones. People with cell phones don't answer strange calls, or they simply block any number not in their contacts list. Do posters ever go door to door? They might need to start doing that.

 

[ultimatebob]

The Trump vote is under counted due to reprisals Trump voters like myself worry about.

Gee, I hadn't thought about that. Have we gotten to the point where we're afraid of telling people who we're going to vote for because we don't want to get attacked by an angry mob later?

Well.... I know that we're already at that point in the P&N forum, but I'm talking about the real world

 

[Jaskalas]

IDK Is it the echo chamber effect? We block those we disagree with and that screws up perceptions?
I tip my hat to my conservative brothers and sisters and wonder how we will explain this to history.
I am the saddest MFer in history but I will survive.

You realize it's not over, right?

 

[repoman0]

The Trump vote is under counted due to reprisals Trump voters like myself worry about.

Wow, you guys sound like real snowflakes.

 

[trenchfoot]

Being publicly ashamed of Trump's childish behavior, his constant lying, his blatant racism, his total lack of empathy, his being under the thumb of Putin etc etc etc simply vanishes into thin air the moment many voters enter into the secrecy of the voting booth where their own ignorance, racism and admiration for "Trump telling it like it is" can be hidden from view and expressed in the most important way possible.

 

[Greenman]

Wow, you guys sound like real snowflakes.

I don't see why there would be an issue with a pollster, but around here putting a Trump bumper sticker on your car is a sure way to get it keyed.

 

[HomerJS]

I don't see why there would be an issue with a pollster, but around here putting a Trump bumper sticker on your car is a sure way to get it keyed.

Having Biden on your vehicle is a sure way to get surrounded and run off the road by Trumptards

 

[HomerJS]

Could the answer to the OP be as simple as

Trump supporters are liars?

 

[Paratus]

Gee, I hadn't thought about that. Have we gotten to the point where we're afraid of telling people who we're going to vote for because we don't want to get attacked by an angry mob later?

Well.... I know that we're already at that point in the P&N forum, but I'm talking about the real world

In my neck of the woods Trump and Biden signs were being stolen by kids in the neighborhood (one of mine included).

Many Trump voting neighbors had large banners, signs or were decorating their golf carts and trucks with signs and driving around the neighborhood.

I’m not going lie, I’m concerned about vandalism after the election is decided and I live in a nice neighborhood.

 

[Amused]

Actually, as states flip as urban areas and mail-in ballots are counted, it looks like the polls weren't THAT far off given their margin of error.

This thread brought to you by Red Mirage!

 

[IronWing]

In my neck of the woods Trump and Biden signs were being stolen by kids in the neighborhood (one of mine included).

Many Trump voting neighbors had large banners, signs or were decorating their golf carts and trucks with signs and driving around the neighborhood.

I’m not going lie, I’m concerned about vandalism after the election is decided and I live in a nice neighborhood.

In my neighborhood, a couple guys were complaining about so many signs being knocked down by vandals. Somehow, they missed the whole 40mph wind event.

 

[woolfe9998]

Even if Biden wins this, and it's barely edging toward that as the outcome, the polls were still way off. By at least as much as 2016. Polls showed Biden up 8 in WI and MI, and he at best wins those states by 1-2. Trump was supposed to be up in OH by +1 and he wins by 8. Those are huge spreads.

 

[Blackjack200]

Actually, as states flip as urban areas and mail-in ballots are counted, it looks like the polls weren't THAT far off given their margin of error.

This thread brought to you by Red Mirage!

If the polls are off within the margin of error and some are skewed toward Biden and some are skewed toward Trump, that's one thing, but that's not what we're seeing. This is the second GE in a row where there the polling was off pretty consistently in one direction.

Only theory that I've seen so far that makes sense to me is that there is a certain segment of Trump's base that refuses to answer any call from unknown numbers. Obviously a lot of people do this, myself included, but I guess the theory is that this particular segment is less likely to answer these calls than whatever the polling base is.

 

[Pipeline 1010]

I think the biggest problem in polling is trying to measure who is a "likely voter". Our country seems so evenly split that it kinda comes down to who has the more motivated voting base.

There is also something to be said about being exited enough about your candidate to evangelize them. If Bernie was the D candidate, I know lots of people who would be absolutely driven to not only vote for him but to bring along as many people as possible. For BIden, these same people did vote for him, but weren't super exited about him. They were more scared/angry/against Trump.