How did the right get it so wrong? CA booming instead of dooming!

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dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,598
29,303
136
Yes, a proposition in 2014. Is this difficult for you to follow?
Your graphic says Prop 14. You expect people to accept a chart from a source that can't even avoid typos? We aren't all as gullible as you. How about you find some actual facts. While you are at it, maybe include some facts regarding actual increases in crime as opposed to a reduction in arrests.
 

Pipeline 1010

Golden Member
Dec 2, 2005
1,939
766
136
Housing prices in California are booming. My house value has increased by 50% in the last 3 years. That is so awesome for ME, but not awesome for anybody else. I mentor a couple of fresh college graduates (computer science) and they make pretty good money. At this time, neither can afford to buy even a condo in our area. If housing prices and wages continue to increase at this rate, these young engineers will never own a home. This is not a healthy market. I'm glad they make lots of money....way more than if they had graduated 5 years ago...but at this point it almost doesn't matter because prices on almost everything seem to be increasing faster than incomes. It is wonderful that nominal income in California has increased, but what about spending power?
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Build dense housing around transit. There is some real shitty land use around many BART stations for starters.

View attachment 45896


Urban dwellers are the most efficient consumers of energy and water that exist. So you want more of them and fewer tract subdivisions in the Central Valley.

Hey! I used to live right there!
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Indeed, but who wants to live in high density areas? It sucks. Lots of people want a home in the burbs because it's a nice way to live. Apartments are for people that can't afford a home.

probably not actually true. The rest of the world outside of a few backwards US states live perfectly well and happy in denser clusters of homes, apartments, attached homes, etc. It's not like a detached home is even an option in a lot of places where jobs exist.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Uhmm, apparently you do - see below.



Why would you think that owning property nearby gives you the right to dictate what someone else does with their property? Does this work both ways? Should people be able to demand you knock your house down and build an apartment building there? If not, what’s the difference

If you want to prohibit high density housing from being built next door you’re free to buy that property and then do whatever you want with it.

buddy of mine worked for Habitat for Humanity for several years, many years ago. He told me a story about one project, where some wealthy widow donated her estate, something like 5-10 acres in the middle of some fancy suburb community to Habitat, I want to say ~Florida somewhere?

So, Habitat moves in, builds about 2 dozen homes for single mothers on that land, and the entire time, the neighborhood thugs are roaming around threatening the workers on a daily basis. Town council meetings, violence, they have to stop work several times (because of violent "I own all this property" types that are afraid of single mothers). The houses eventually got built.

...I fucking love stories like this.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,432
7,356
136
buddy of mine worked for Habitat for Humanity for several years, many years ago. He told me a story about one project, where some wealthy widow donated her estate, something like 5-10 acres in the middle of some fancy suburb community to Habitat, I want to say ~Florida somewhere?

So, Habitat moves in, builds about 2 dozen homes for single mothers on that land, and the entire time, the neighborhood thugs are roaming around threatening the workers on a daily basis. Town council meetings, violence, they have to stop work several times (because of violent "I own all this property" types that are afraid of single mothers). The houses eventually got built.

...I fucking love stories like this.
The lengths people that are part of the haves will go to keep housing away from the people that are the have nots. Pretty despicable.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
eskimospy: No One is leaving California - it's only the poor people lol enjoy your poor people! We love our rich people - but we also condemn them because were dumb hypocrites lol.....



Nice try, moron lol.





 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,874
34,821
136
eskimospy: No One is leaving California - it's only the poor people lol enjoy your poor people! We love our rich people - but we also condemn them because were dumb hypocrites lol.....



Nice try, moron lol.


View attachment 47162




Jesus Christ not a Kotkin piece



 
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zzyzxroad

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2017
3,244
2,260
136
probably not actually true. The rest of the world outside of a few backwards US states live perfectly well and happy in denser clusters of homes, apartments, attached homes, etc. It's not like a detached home is even an option in a lot of places where jobs exist.
Even in some cities in the US it is much more common. I have lived in a luxury high-rise and loved it. The city I am in now are finally allowing more residential high-rise and they are defiantly not for poor folks @ $6,365 a month for a 2/2 (1,316 Sq.Ft.).
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,874
34,821
136
Once again, attacking the messenger, not the message.

A common tactic of the low intelligent.

When you can't argue against the data - you dismiss it because of the person presenting it.

I literally do not have the time to refute Joel Kotkin's entire bullshit career.

I'll just take this little part here

Regulations favoring densification, particularly in the Bay Area and Los Angeles, have not prevented those areas from having the nation’s highest-priced housing. California also has the nation’s highest urban density and increased the most in the last decade at an incremental rate of 11,000 people per square mile—a density comparable to that of the city of Chicago—and 5.5 times the national rate. Yet prices relative to incomes have grown far faster than in the rest of the country, including in such thriving areas as Dallas–Ft. Worth and Austin, where prices remain far lower. Housing, according to a recent Berkeley poll, was by far the biggest factor cited by people wanting to move.

This is just fucking gibberish. "Regulations favoring densification" huh? Like which ones that are actually meaningful to the state's housing deficit?

Units permitted per capita in CA's high cost big cities sucks pretty bad because the state really has done little.

 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,578
2,913
136
eskimospy: No One is leaving California - it's only the poor people lol enjoy your poor people! We love our rich people - but we also condemn them because were dumb hypocrites lol.....



Nice try, moron lol.


View attachment 47162


By my rough estimate, that chart shows 90% of out migration being in the $200k or less category...so you proved his point?

I'm not sure if I'm more confused than you are at this point.

Edit: you MIGHT have an argument if you grouped that by normalizing the percentage of each bracket that left; i.e. larger number in the lower brackets but smaller as a percentage of total pop in that bracket.
 

chowderhead

Platinum Member
Dec 7, 1999
2,633
263
126
here is another study that says there is no “millionaire “flight from
CA, no unusally large net migration out and that California draws half of all VC capital more than the rest of the 49 states combined.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
By my rough estimate, that chart shows 90% of out migration being in the $200k or less category...so you proved his point?

I'm not sure if I'm more confused than you are at this point.

Edit: you MIGHT have an argument if you grouped that by normalizing the percentage of each bracket that left; i.e. larger number in the lower brackets but smaller as a percentage of total pop in that bracket.

He has an argument that isn't so much "the poor" as the middle class, because in the more expensive places in CA, $200K is just middle class.

Unfortunately it is also impossible to tell from this purported compilation of IRS data if it shows individual or family income. I suspect it's the latter. If so, it's a deception.

It may surprise people who aren't too bright that even a $200K salary does not automatically qualify you to afford a house around here. Your down payment is probably 2 years of unadjusted gross income, 3 years of net income, and monthly payments probably average about $8000 for the mortgage alone. Think about how you afford that on, say, $125K net total income. Not very well.

You probably need about $300K total family income to afford a new house in either the bay area, or the LA or San Diego areas. The places where most of the population resides. Most Californians don't make that much. But most homeowners bought their property long ago when prices were more reasonable, and they never want to sell because they have locked in low property taxes in perpetuity due to prop 13. This unwillingness to sell is another reason prices remain high.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,706
6,198
126
When I was young I bought a house I couldn't afford so I wouldn't have to drive a million miles to work. The result was that I worked for the rest of the pay off time 6 days a week and overtime. When the property tax rolled around twice a year I would have to put it on credit as well as the home owner's insurance. I was able to buy it because nobody else wanted it for that price. Now I won't sell it for 20 times what I paid because it's been my home for most of my adult life.

So I get blamed for all the homelessness and liberals stay up at night thinking of ways they can force me out owning to my tremendous and accidental good luck because I was able to hang on in good part thanks to Prop 13.

The only thing that happens in my neighborhood when houses sell is they get huge additions because they don't cut it with the people who can afford to buy them. And no homeless people are moving into those additions.

And when the taps run dry and the air conditioners stop property values in California will probably drop and the homeless will move to Alaska.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,065
7,491
136
eskimospy: No One is leaving California - it's only the poor people lol enjoy your poor people! We love our rich people - but we also condemn them because were dumb hypocrites lol.....



Nice try, moron lol.


View attachment 47162



-Keep posting stuff like this and I'll be obligated to vote for Newsom in the recall election!

Holy shitfuck if we can get ~10 million people to leave then... then... We'll still be the most populous state in the union. Fuck.

Cali has been subject to so many boom cycles that has had people from across the country moving here... It would actually be nice to have a bust and have people leave.

Its such a beautiful state with a rich history... But god damn there are TOO MANY PEOPLE here. Carpet baggers can pack their shit and go back to Iowa or wherever the fuck.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,550
13,115
136
I have no desire to ban anyone from living the way they want to. If I buy a home in a quiet neighborhood with like minded people don't we get to keep it a quiet neighborhood? Why do I suddenly have to have high density housing next door?
There are areas for high density, there are areas for low density, there are areas for industrial and areas for farming. This is called zoning, it's a good thing.
I hear this POV, and I hate living in the city, but I cant control city planning man… that shit is what it is and if that is how it is its my job to gtfo before it happens… move a bit further out.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,704
5,434
136
But god damn there are TOO MANY PEOPLE here. Carpet baggers can pack their shit and go back to Iowa or wherever the fuck.

Not gonna happen. I like my health insurance and low* taxes. I also "bought"** "property"*** in CA, so your stuck with me. -nelson laugh-

Also, when Trump was elected portions of the rest of the country went straight to hell. He empowered/emboldened cruel and evil people. The deck has always been stacked against minorities, but after Trump was elected the odds of drawing the wrong card from the stacked deck greatly increased. Many people who no longer feel safe are fleeing to the the safety of CA, where we are far less likely to end up a statistic. Biden being elected did not change this.


*CA is much more heavily graduated then the midwestern states, so if you make less then $100,000 a year it is much cheaper income tax wise in CA. I was unaware of that before moving to CA, but was delighted to find my state income tax was 1/2 to 1/3rd of what it was previous.

**more accurately, the bank bought property and allows me to live in it

***does a condo even count as property?
 
Last edited:

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
38,000
18,345
146
He has an argument that isn't so much "the poor" as the middle class, because in the more expensive places in CA, $200K is just middle class.

Unfortunately it is also impossible to tell from this purported compilation of IRS data if it shows individual or family income. I suspect it's the latter. If so, it's a deception.

It may surprise people who aren't too bright that even a $200K salary does not automatically qualify you to afford a house around here. Your down payment is probably 2 years of unadjusted gross income, 3 years of net income, and monthly payments probably average about $8000 for the mortgage alone. Think about how you afford that on, say, $125K net total income. Not very well.

You probably need about $300K total family income to afford a new house in either the bay area, or the LA or San Diego areas. The places where most of the population resides. Most Californians don't make that much. But most homeowners bought their property long ago when prices were more reasonable, and they never want to sell because they have locked in low property taxes in perpetuity due to prop 13. This unwillingness to sell is another reason prices remain high.

It seems that would greatly contribute to a lower-middle class wanting to move on to a more affordable area.
 

zzyzxroad

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2017
3,244
2,260
136
I wonder what percentage of the people leaving Californian are folks who recently retired. I love me some old folks and even hope to be one some day but not sure how great they are for a states bottom line.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,815
49,507
136
When I was young I bought a house I couldn't afford so I wouldn't have to drive a million miles to work. The result was that I worked for the rest of the pay off time 6 days a week and overtime. When the property tax rolled around twice a year I would have to put it on credit as well as the home owner's insurance. I was able to buy it because nobody else wanted it for that price. Now I won't sell it for 20 times what I paid because it's been my home for most of my adult life.

So I get blamed for all the homelessness and liberals stay up at night thinking of ways they can force me out owning to my tremendous and accidental good luck because I was able to hang on in good part thanks to Prop 13.

The only thing that happens in my neighborhood when houses sell is they get huge additions because they don't cut it with the people who can afford to buy them. And no homeless people are moving into those additions.

And when the taps run dry and the air conditioners stop property values in California will probably drop and the homeless will move to Alaska.
Remember, all we are asking of you is two things:

1) pay the same tax rate as anyone else who might move into your house.
2) stop banning other people from building houses on their own property.

Is it really so much to ask that you pay the same rate as new, struggling families? Is it really so much to ask that you allow people to build a house on their own property? If you can just find the humanity to allow these two very modest things you could alleviate mass human suffering. Wouldn’t that make you feel good?
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,334
15,128
136
Remember, all we are asking of you is two things:

1) pay the same tax rate as anyone else who might move into your house.
2) stop banning other people from building houses on their own property.

Is it really so much to ask that you pay the same rate as new, struggling families? Is it really so much to ask that you allow people to build a house on their own property? If you can just find the humanity to allow these two very modest things you could alleviate mass human suffering. Wouldn’t that make you feel good?

You aren’t asking people to pay the same rate though, you are asking them to pay the same amount and that makes zero sense.
 
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