How do you predict this health care debate ending?

[Infohawk]

This thread is not about debating the merits of health care reform. This thread is for showing off your predictions of what the political process will give us on this issue.

I myself am not sure. I don't see this anti-Obamacare movement slowing down. I'm not sure how the liberal Democrats can really change the minds of their opponents. Therefore, after some more debate, I see Obama going to the middle (and angering some on the left). I hope I'm wrong but I suspect we'll see similar crappy reforms that we've had in the past. It will just complicate things further without giving either side what they want. Obama and the Democrats will pass it off as a win and of course the Republicans will do the same. Overall, I see this debate hurting the Democrats by estranging both the moderates and left wing.

So what do you think will happen, regardless of what you want to happen?

 

[MotF Bane]

I think it'll pass.

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: MotF Bane
I think it'll pass.

What will pass? THe public option?

 

[Pens1566]

I think eventually, the democrats will forget the bi-partisanship and ram home the bill with public option included.

 

[DaveSimmons]

The right and lobbyists are doing an excellent job of swiftboating UHC and instilling fear in the ignorant.

With death panels, rationing (as if it wasn't happening now), paying for abortions & euthanasia, not being able to see your doctor or keep your plan, "keep the government out of my medicare!" etc. I'll be surprised if any real change is passed at this point.

Which is sad, it would be nice to have coverage that's portable between jobs, without worrying about a 1-day lapse in coverage turning everything into a pre-existing condition that won't be paid for.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Originally posted by: Infohawk
This thread is not about debating the merits of health care reform. This thread is for showing off your predictions of what the political process will give us on this issue.

I myself am not sure. I don't see this anti-Obamacare movement slowing down. I'm not sure how the liberal Democrats can really change the minds of their opponents. Therefore, after some more debate, I see Obama going to the middle (and angering some on the left). I hope I'm wrong but I suspect we'll see similar crappy reforms that we've had in the past. It will just complicate things further without giving either side what they want. Obama and the Democrats will pass it off as a win and of course the Republicans will do the same. Overall, I see this debate hurting the Democrats by estranging both the moderates and left wing.

So what do you think will happen, regardless of what you want to happen?

Tough call. A few weeks ago, I would've said that the plan currently under consideration would pass. Now, I am not so sure.

 

[Patranus]

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: MotF Bane
I think it'll pass.

What will pass? THe public option?

There is no way we end up with a government option.

If the Democrats are smart they will drop the government option in any form and pass the 70% that both sides agree with such as deregulation.

If the Democrats decide to use the nuclear option....it will pass but bad things will happen in the future.

 

[MrMatt]

nothing. It'll be just like when Clinton tried to push something through. Stalemate, maybe some minor bill will pass, and Obama will claim it's a victory.



1/20/13

 

[boomerang]

The dems will fuck it up and we'll have nothing. They'll blame anybody and everybody but themselves.

They're going to reach a point where victory in 2010 will overshadow the needs of the nation.

 

[shadow9d9]

Originally posted by: Patranus

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: MotF Bane
I think it'll pass.

What will pass? THe public option?

There is no way we end up with a government option.

If the Democrats are smart they will drop the government option in any form and pass the 70% that both sides agree with such as deregulation.

If the Democrats decide to use the nuclear option....it will pass but bad things will happen in the future.

DEregulation!? AHAHAHAHAHA! It's worked so well elsewhere! Let's give LESS accountability!

 

[Fern]

Obviously a very difficult situation to predict.

Seems the Public Insurance Option (PIO) is the number 1 sticking point. Some House members and Senators absolutely won't vote for UHC if it contains PIO, many in the House won't vote for if it doesn't.

I think the House can pass UHC with PIO, but not the Senate who have long preferred Co-Ops.

Firstly, I think it very important to determine whether the Budget Reconcilliation Process cane be used to ram through UHC + PIO in the Senate. I have a thread about it, but nobody seems to know. Link

If the Budget Reconcilliation Process can be used, I'd say there a small chance we'll get UHC + PIO. I say 'small' because I think the Senate Dems are reluctatnt to use this 'nuclear option' for something unrelated (directly anyway) to the budget process. Sen. Bryd and others are known to be against using it.

If the Budget Reconcilliation Process can't be used, then I estimate 80/20 we either get UHC w/o PIO (80%) or no UHC (20%).

So, I'm leaning heavily towards a slimmed down version of UHC. I believe the Obama Admin wants something passed and they will win out over those Dems who would prefer nothing if PIO is not included out of fear that they only have 'one bite at the apple' (and the public option lost for good).

I think another hard question is how this 'political theatre' will play out. Will Pelosi and the House think they have to vote on a PIO bill to keep their core happy? Might be.

If so, will there be a filibuster in the Senate? I say 'yes' if the House delivers a UHC bill with the PIO and it moves out of the Joint Committee for a Senate floor vote.

Botton line: Watered down UHC with Co-op replacing public insurance option gets passed this year.

Fern

 

[woodie1]

There are so many versions out there I would think they might be able to get something passed even if it is a disjointed piece of crap.

 

[sandorski]

In 2020 there will be a true UHC with a Single Payer for all Basic/Essential Healthcare included. The vast majority of People will look back at this time wondering WTF was wrong with those Opposing it. A few Nutcases will maintain it was the death of America yadda yadda ya, but they'll be the same Nutcases who continue to call any similar change the same thing Centuries after the fact.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons
The right and lobbyists are doing an excellent job of swiftboating UHC and instilling fear in the ignorant.

With death panels, rationing (as if it wasn't happening now), paying for abortions & euthanasia, not being able to see your doctor or keep your plan, "keep the government out of my medicare!" etc. I'll be surprised if any real change is passed at this point.

Which is sad, it would be nice to have coverage that's portable between jobs, without worrying about a 1-day lapse in coverage turning everything into a pre-existing condition that won't be paid for.

Here's my opinion on abortions. What's going to happen is they will pass the bill and the bill will not allow funding of abortion. Planned Parenthood will sue and they will take it to the Supreme Court. The wise latina will say it's illegal and they will have to fund abortions.

 

[GuitarDaddy]

I'm a bit more optomistic than most, I think we will pass a significant bill including a public option or strongly regulated co-ops during the next session which will be a comprimise between the blue dogs in the senate and the more liberal democratic body. The game is clear at this point, the Republicans except for a couple WILL NOT vote for any significant reform PIO or not. They have really helped the Dems by telegraphing thier intent, now the Dems don't have to bother trying to pander to the GOP and it just comes down to comprimise with the blue dogs.

And I predict that it will be passed using the reconciliation process.
wouldn't be too surprised if fist fights broke out in the senate

 

[galperi1]

Originally posted by: Pens1566
I think eventually, the democrats will forget the bi-partisanship and ram home the bill with public option included.

This.

It is looking increasingly likely that there will be no republican support at all. If the democrats are going to take the risk of ramming a bill through there should be no compromise to a group that will still oppose it (with compromises) and claim credit if it fails (due to the watering down of the bill). Therefore the Dems will pass what they want to pass and then assume responsiblity for what happens on their own terms.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Originally posted by: galperi1

Originally posted by: Pens1566
I think eventually, the democrats will forget the bi-partisanship and ram home the bill with public option included.

This.

It is looking increasingly likely that there will be no republican support at all. If the democrats are going to take the risk of ramming a bill through there should be no compromise to a group that will still oppose it (with compromises) and claim credit if it fails (due to the watering down of the bill). Therefore the Dems will pass what they want to pass and then assume responsiblity for what happens on their own terms.

That bolded part about accepting responsibility won't happen -- that I can predict. I'm sure their apologists are already preparing the excuses.

I think Fern is probably right -- some sort of reform will pass, but it won't be nearly as extensive as Obama and Co. had hoped. With the 2010 elections little more than a year away, I am not sure the Democrats are in a position (or willing) to push something through without making some concessions.

 

[heyheybooboo]

There will not be UHC - it's not even on the table.
(though I do not oppose that every person be required to carry some form of hospitalization but I think that would drive some of you guys nuts even if it were only 'catastrophic' in nature)

Medicare Advantage will be slashed by the tune of $170 billion.

Medicare Part B will become 'means-tested' in some form. It is ridiculous that folks making over $300k (or something like that) pay only $400 a month.

There will be another $300-$350 billion in Medicare/Medicaid cost savings/cuts. This may or may not include a stakeholders 'blue ribbon' commission to standardize medical records and forms in digital formats.

The legislation will include provisions that regulate physician 'conflict-of-interest' referrals to medical facilities in which they have a financial interest.

Co-Ops will be dropped because of the excessive up front costs, and management/ administrative nightmares.

Several self-funded public option 'cafeteria' models will emerge based upon a Medcare/Single-payer design:

1) a simple catastrophic 'umbrella' policy with high deducts & co-pays (nothing else); and
2) something less than above with prescription drug/dental options.

A 'minimum' standard will be set to eliminate 'phantom' employer-based insurance (there are some really crappy policies out there).

Benefits will be taxed above a qualified 'threshold'.

Businesses will be taxed above a qualified threshold based upon size/revenues/# of employees.


What they will not do:

Tort Reform
Part 'D' Big-Pharma drug Reform
Bad Doctor/Hospital Malpractice Reform

 

[ccbadd]

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons
The right and lobbyists are doing an excellent job of swiftboating UHC and instilling fear in the ignorant.

With death panels, rationing (as if it wasn't happening now), paying for abortions & euthanasia, not being able to see your doctor or keep your plan, "keep the government out of my medicare!" etc. I'll be surprised if any real change is passed at this point.

Which is sad, it would be nice to have coverage that's portable between jobs, without worrying about a 1-day lapse in coverage turning everything into a pre-existing condition that won't be paid for.

The law requires 63 days lapse in coverage to have any illness considered pre-existing! Who is the ignorant one?

 

[ccbadd]

Originally posted by: shadow9d9

Originally posted by: Patranus

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: MotF Bane
I think it'll pass.

What will pass? THe public option?

There is no way we end up with a government option.

If the Democrats are smart they will drop the government option in any form and pass the 70% that both sides agree with such as deregulation.

If the Democrats decide to use the nuclear option....it will pass but bad things will happen in the future.

DEregulation!? AHAHAHAHAHA! It's worked so well elsewhere! Let's give LESS accountability!

Another ignorant leftwing hack. Do you know what people are talking about when the talk of deregulation of insurance? It means letting people purchase health insurance from out of state sources.

 

[ZeGermans]

It will be horribly watered down and a giant payoff to the insurance industry with no price controls and weak regulations on their horrible practices. It will fail utterly and republicans will blame it on SOCIALISM and people will believe it because America is full of gullible fucks and really isn't worth saving.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Originally posted by: ZeGermans
It will be horribly watered down and a giant payoff to the insurance industry with no price controls and weak regulations on their horrible practices. It will fail utterly and republicans will blame it on SOCIALISM and people will believe it because America is full of gullible fucks and really isn't worth saving.

I think you become more and more ridiculous with each posting. Geesh.

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: galperi1

Originally posted by: Pens1566
I think eventually, the democrats will forget the bi-partisanship and ram home the bill with public option included.

This.

It is looking increasingly likely that there will be no republican support at all. If the democrats are going to take the risk of ramming a bill through there should be no compromise to a group that will still oppose it (with compromises) and claim credit if it fails (due to the watering down of the bill). Therefore the Dems will pass what they want to pass and then assume responsiblity for what happens on their own terms.

Aren't you guys forgetting about the blue dogs? The blue dogs aren't going to risk their seats for the public option. At least it seems like they wouldn't do that.

 

[galperi1]

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: galperi1

Originally posted by: Pens1566
I think eventually, the democrats will forget the bi-partisanship and ram home the bill with public option included.

This.

It is looking increasingly likely that there will be no republican support at all. If the democrats are going to take the risk of ramming a bill through there should be no compromise to a group that will still oppose it (with compromises) and claim credit if it fails (due to the watering down of the bill). Therefore the Dems will pass what they want to pass and then assume responsiblity for what happens on their own terms.

Aren't you guys forgetting about the blue dogs? The blue dogs aren't going to risk their seats for the public option. At least it seems like they wouldn't do that.

I'm pretty sure they can do it without the blue dogs support. They probably have the votes in the house and I imagine will probably just end up using the reconciliation process to bypass a filibuster in the senate as they most likely have 51 votes.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: galperi1

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: galperi1

Originally posted by: Pens1566
I think eventually, the democrats will forget the bi-partisanship and ram home the bill with public option included.

This.

It is looking increasingly likely that there will be no republican support at all. If the democrats are going to take the risk of ramming a bill through there should be no compromise to a group that will still oppose it (with compromises) and claim credit if it fails (due to the watering down of the bill). Therefore the Dems will pass what they want to pass and then assume responsiblity for what happens on their own terms.

Aren't you guys forgetting about the blue dogs? The blue dogs aren't going to risk their seats for the public option. At least it seems like they wouldn't do that.

I'm pretty sure they can do it without the blue dogs support. They probably have the votes in the house and I imagine will probably just end up using the reconciliation process to bypass a filibuster in the senate as they most likely have 51 votes.

There are 48 Blue Dogs in the House that are committed to voting no unless certain demands are met. Along those lines, there are about a dozen other moderate dems that aren't part of the Blue Dog coalition that are also leaning no.

Passing the House is no gimme. If the Senate goes the reconciliation way, oh there will be some Dems in the Senate going down like their breathern in the House. The Dems are in for a bumpy 2010. They are damned if they do and damned if they dont at this point.