How do you predict this health care debate ending?

[galperi1]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: galperi1

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: galperi1

Originally posted by: Pens1566
I think eventually, the democrats will forget the bi-partisanship and ram home the bill with public option included.

This.

It is looking increasingly likely that there will be no republican support at all. If the democrats are going to take the risk of ramming a bill through there should be no compromise to a group that will still oppose it (with compromises) and claim credit if it fails (due to the watering down of the bill). Therefore the Dems will pass what they want to pass and then assume responsiblity for what happens on their own terms.

Aren't you guys forgetting about the blue dogs? The blue dogs aren't going to risk their seats for the public option. At least it seems like they wouldn't do that.

I'm pretty sure they can do it without the blue dogs support. They probably have the votes in the house and I imagine will probably just end up using the reconciliation process to bypass a filibuster in the senate as they most likely have 51 votes.

There are 48 Blue Dogs in the House that are committed to voting no unless certain demands are met. Along those lines, there are about a dozen other moderate dems that aren't part of the Blue Dog coalition that are also leaning no.

Passing the House is no gimme. If the Senate goes the reconciliation way, oh there will be some Dems in the Senate going down like their breathern in the House. The Dems are in for a bumpy 2010. They are damned if they do and damned if they dont at this point.

Oh I definitely agree.. however what is the point of compromise if it garners little to no support from the opposition.

Look at the stimulus... I think only 3 total republicans in the senate/house voted for it and the democrats compromised a lot to even get that. Now they are responsible for the results of the watered down bill and the republicans can all say they voted against it in 2010.

What's the point of going down that path again and making significant compromises to not garner any additional support.

 

[blackangst1]

I predict a welfare type option based on income, possibly expanding Medicare to do so, in which case it will have a net effect on somewhere around 30% of the total uninsured. I predict nothing will be done to address the cost of either insurance or services, and our employer based healthcare will stay as it is.

 

[Pens1566]

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: galperi1

Originally posted by: Pens1566
I think eventually, the democrats will forget the bi-partisanship and ram home the bill with public option included.

This.

It is looking increasingly likely that there will be no republican support at all. If the democrats are going to take the risk of ramming a bill through there should be no compromise to a group that will still oppose it (with compromises) and claim credit if it fails (due to the watering down of the bill). Therefore the Dems will pass what they want to pass and then assume responsiblity for what happens on their own terms.

Aren't you guys forgetting about the blue dogs? The blue dogs aren't going to risk their seats for the public option. At least it seems like they wouldn't do that.

No I'm not. They'll get on board to save their political asses because they'll be the first ones thrown out in '10 if nothing gets done.

 

[StageLeft]

No idea. I am happy to see the tide turning against the pre-ejaculatory democrats at this point who are just trying to rush through something regardless of merit, but in terms of what really will happen, don't know.

 

[Atreus21]

Originally posted by: Infohawk
This thread is not about debating the merits of health care reform. This thread is for showing off your predictions of what the political process will give us on this issue.

I myself am not sure. I don't see this anti-Obamacare movement slowing down. I'm not sure how the liberal Democrats can really change the minds of their opponents. Therefore, after some more debate, I see Obama going to the middle (and angering some on the left). I hope I'm wrong but I suspect we'll see similar crappy reforms that we've had in the past. It will just complicate things further without giving either side what they want. Obama and the Democrats will pass it off as a win and of course the Republicans will do the same. Overall, I see this debate hurting the Democrats by estranging both the moderates and left wing.

So what do you think will happen, regardless of what you want to happen?

I honestly don't know what will happen. I don't know the extent of the zeal dems have for getting this passed. Ramming this home will be politically costly to them.

 

[Atreus21]

Originally posted by: Fern
Firstly....

is not a word.

Sorry I couldn't help it.

Please don't vacate me.

 

[MovingTarget]

1993 all over again... It'll be another decade+ before we will attempt to tackle the issue again, only then the problems would be exponentially worse...

 

[her209]

I think the Democrats will wake the fuck up and realize that the Republican leaders were never serious about UHC and go at it alone.

 

[xj0hnx]

Originally posted by: blackangst1
I predict a welfare type option based on income, possibly expanding Medicare to do so, in which case it will have a net effect on somewhere around 30% of the total uninsured. I predict nothing will be done to address the cost of either insurance or services, and our employer based healthcare will stay as it is.

Sound about right. Cost will go up too.