How high will oil go? I think 100/barrel....

[Vic]

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: sandorski
$1gajillion. The price of Oil won't go below $40 again. $80 will be seen before $40, I predict.

You realize that people said the exact same kind of comments back in the 70s, right?

The '70's were a completely different situation. OPEC refused to Sell Oil to the US back then, now they can't Produce enough to meet Demand.

That's not true. Production is fine. In fact, quotas are still in place.

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: sandorski
$1gajillion. The price of Oil won't go below $40 again. $80 will be seen before $40, I predict.

You realize that people said the exact same kind of comments back in the 70s, right?

The '70's were a completely different situation. OPEC refused to Sell Oil to the US back then, now they can't Produce enough to meet Demand.

That's not true. Production is fine. In fact, quotas are still in place.

So, why are prices going up?

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Tab
So, why are prices going up?

charrison already addressed that in this thread.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: sandorski
$1gajillion. The price of Oil won't go below $40 again. $80 will be seen before $40, I predict.

You realize that people said the exact same kind of comments back in the 70s, right?

The '70's were a completely different situation. OPEC refused to Sell Oil to the US back then, now they can't Produce enough to meet Demand.

Not true. The Oil Barons insist there is enough oil.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: sandorski
$1gajillion. The price of Oil won't go below $40 again. $80 will be seen before $40, I predict.

You realize that people said the exact same kind of comments back in the 70s, right?

The '70's were a completely different situation. OPEC refused to Sell Oil to the US back then, now they can't Produce enough to meet Demand.

That's not true. Production is fine. In fact, quotas are still in place.

Believe what you must, but we'll meet at $80+ soon.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: sandorski
$1gajillion. The price of Oil won't go below $40 again. $80 will be seen before $40, I predict.

You realize that people said the exact same kind of comments back in the 70s, right?

The '70's were a completely different situation. OPEC refused to Sell Oil to the US back then, now they can't Produce enough to meet Demand.

That's not true. Production is fine. In fact, quotas are still in place.

Believe what you must, but we'll meet at $80+ soon.

Whether or not production is adequate is not a matter of belief or opinion, it is fact. Production is still adequate to meet demand. Factually. That prices will hit $80, however, is opinion. They may, they may not. There's a lot of MOMO in oil futures speculation right now, so I won't speculate. But I just thought I'd clarify this little exchange here.

 

[Stunt]

Oil prices are going up because of speculation, oil prices are a futures market and traded as a commodity, actual price is totally different.

Demand is integral to the equation; with demand comes increased capacities required at refineries, every little issue there, like a fire or risk oflower production will drive the prices through the roof.

The futures price for oil is based on light sweet crude, stuff that is extremely hard to find compared to the more abundant sour crude (stuff arabia is coming online with), with the sour crude comes the refiner issue again. Fact is, the sweet light crude may continue to rise, but the base oil price may come down (the real price we pay). Only with refiner capacity and decreased demand though.

 

[5LiterMustang]

Originally posted by: Stunt
Oil prices are going up because of speculation, oil prices are a futures market and traded as a commodity, actual price is totally different.

Demand is integral to the equation; with demand comes increased capacities required at refineries, every little issue there, like a fire or risk oflower production will drive the prices through the roof.

The futures price for oil is based on light sweet crude, stuff that is extremely hard to find compared to the more abundant sour crude (stuff arabia is coming online with), with the sour crude comes the refiner issue again. Fact is, the sweet light crude may continue to rise, but the base oil price may come down (the real price we pay). Only with refiner capacity and decreased demand though.

Good post, but light sweet crude isn't as rare as you make it seem and we can refine gas from heavier crudes it just is not quit as effecient. You hit the nail on the head with regard to refineries. Until we get a few new refineries built prices will stay high.

 

[catnap1972]

Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang

Originally posted by: Stunt
Oil prices are going up because of speculation, oil prices are a futures market and traded as a commodity, actual price is totally different.

Demand is integral to the equation; with demand comes increased capacities required at refineries, every little issue there, like a fire or risk oflower production will drive the prices through the roof.

The futures price for oil is based on light sweet crude, stuff that is extremely hard to find compared to the more abundant sour crude (stuff arabia is coming online with), with the sour crude comes the refiner issue again. Fact is, the sweet light crude may continue to rise, but the base oil price may come down (the real price we pay). Only with refiner capacity and decreased demand though.

Good post, but light sweet crude isn't as rare as you make it seem and we can refine gas from heavier crudes it just is not quit as effecient. You hit the nail on the head with regard to refineries. Until we get a few new refineries built prices will stay high.

Not going to happen--big oil (ExxonMobil, et al) are happy with prices where they are (albeit they wish they were even higher)...they're not going to upset the apple cart by spending money (profit margins) when they don't need to.

 

[5LiterMustang]

Originally posted by: catnap1972

Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang

Originally posted by: Stunt
Oil prices are going up because of speculation, oil prices are a futures market and traded as a commodity, actual price is totally different.

Demand is integral to the equation; with demand comes increased capacities required at refineries, every little issue there, like a fire or risk oflower production will drive the prices through the roof.

The futures price for oil is based on light sweet crude, stuff that is extremely hard to find compared to the more abundant sour crude (stuff arabia is coming online with), with the sour crude comes the refiner issue again. Fact is, the sweet light crude may continue to rise, but the base oil price may come down (the real price we pay). Only with refiner capacity and decreased demand though.

Good post, but light sweet crude isn't as rare as you make it seem and we can refine gas from heavier crudes it just is not quit as effecient. You hit the nail on the head with regard to refineries. Until we get a few new refineries built prices will stay high.

Not going to happen--big oil (ExxonMobil, et al) are happy with prices where they are (albeit they wish they were even higher)...they're not going to upset the apple cart by spending money (profit margins) when they don't need to.

and you immediately think these corps are bad because why? Exxon, ConocoPhillips and Shell are all talking about building more refineries, in fact they're trying to get a 750,000 barrel a day refinery built here in oklahoma. The legislature wont pass it though...

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang

Originally posted by: catnap1972

Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang

Originally posted by: Stunt
Oil prices are going up because of speculation, oil prices are a futures market and traded as a commodity, actual price is totally different.

Demand is integral to the equation; with demand comes increased capacities required at refineries, every little issue there, like a fire or risk oflower production will drive the prices through the roof.

The futures price for oil is based on light sweet crude, stuff that is extremely hard to find compared to the more abundant sour crude (stuff arabia is coming online with), with the sour crude comes the refiner issue again. Fact is, the sweet light crude may continue to rise, but the base oil price may come down (the real price we pay). Only with refiner capacity and decreased demand though.

Good post, but light sweet crude isn't as rare as you make it seem and we can refine gas from heavier crudes it just is not quit as effecient. You hit the nail on the head with regard to refineries. Until we get a few new refineries built prices will stay high.

Not going to happen--big oil (ExxonMobil, et al) are happy with prices where they are (albeit they wish they were even higher)...they're not going to upset the apple cart by spending money (profit margins) when they don't need to.

and you immediately think these corps are bad because why? Exxon, ConocoPhillips and Shell are all talking about building more refineries, in fact they're trying to get a 750,000 barrel a day refinery built here in oklahoma. The legislature wont pass it though...

NIMBY will be the end of us all.

 

[judasmachine]

I'm actually joining the HIGHER HIGHER group, but it's because I think we should be dragged by our wallets to newer, cleaner technologies.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally posted by: judasmachine
I'm actually joining the HIGHER HIGHER group, but it's because I think we should be dragged by our wallets to newer, cleaner technologies.

:thumbsup:

The higher oil prices go, the more economically viable solar energy becomes. High gas prices will finally provide some impetus and motivation to ween ourselves off the oil teat.

btw. Most of our own oil comes from Canada. Quite a few Canadians must be raking it in at the moment.

 

[judasmachine]

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken

Originally posted by: judasmachine
I'm actually joining the HIGHER HIGHER group, but it's because I think we should be dragged by our wallets to newer, cleaner technologies.

:thumbsup:

The higher oil prices go, the more economically viable solar energy becomes. High gas prices will finally provide some impetus and motivation to ween ourselves off the oil teat.

btw. Most of our own oil comes from Canada. Quite a few Canadians must be raking it in at the moment.

dem pesky socialists to the north.... :|

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken

Originally posted by: judasmachine
I'm actually joining the HIGHER HIGHER group, but it's because I think we should be dragged by our wallets to newer, cleaner technologies.

:thumbsup:

The higher oil prices go, the more economically viable solar energy becomes. High gas prices will finally provide some impetus and motivation to ween ourselves off the oil teat.

btw. Most of our own oil comes from Canada. Quite a few Canadians must be raking it in at the moment.

Margins on oil and gas companies are about the same as toyota, nissan, way less than pharma, software and financials. While the sector has been great for jobs and the economy in alberta and newfoundland, most of the money is being made on the stock market over the last while (which anybody can do). The market has put so much money into these companies recently their dividend yields are well below 1% making them less attractive and very little upside.

That being said; my energy fund is up over 40% in the past year, almost doubled my money!

PS. As for the refinery issue, just because they haven't made new refineries in the last few decades doesn't mean anything, potential output at these places has been going up drastically over the years. Efficiencies and output over the years at manufacturing facilities always goes up and equipment updated and expanded. Just think about our oil consumption a few decades ago, you actually think they haven't increased production!? Keeping everything in one spot allows for economies of scale and standard shipping routes and knowledgable workforce to stay in the same spot.

 

[ExpertNovice]

Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
How high will oil get before it finally either levels off or starts a decline? I believe this point could be as high as 100/barrel given the circumstances with supply, and the fact that our politicians refuse to help the situation...your thoughts and opinions on this?

You are suggesting that the politicians finally ignore the environmentalists? What about the liberal judges and lawyers who support the environmentalists?

At $100 US per barrel we are still under the $5 per gallon mark that the liberals wanted during the President Carter gas-rationing double-digit-inflation days.

Then, you should adjust for inflation so how about estimating $300 per barrel to make the environmentalists happy.

The good side to this is it could spur private enterprise to start mass producing alternatives and I don't mean the wacko alternatives.

It appears that in Texas two different groups have taken the Toyota Prias (am I spelling it correctly?) and replaced it with a larger battery and modified the software to recognize the larger battery. I'm sure it voids the warranty... In both cases the battery is fully charged at night by plugging it in to an electrical outlet.

One company has improved the gas mileage to 80 miles per gallon (I don't know their testing conditions... is it track, residential roads, highways, rush hour, combination of all) and the conversion costs about $3,000. This batter has a "short" (unspecified) life and is probably not very cheap.

Another company is using a lithium battery and getting 100 mpg. I don't know how much the conversion costs but the battery sells for $15,000.

We have looked at the Prias and I like the car for a commuter car. (It is horrible on the open road.) While waiting to see actual costs associated with maintenance, battery replacement, life expectancey, etc. we are holding on to my Wifes older car a 1993 Toyota Corolla. When we sold our last car (the one I drove) it was 12 years old and hers has now reached that same 12 years. Hers, however, is very cheap to maintain. Very.

 

[ExpertNovice]

Originally posted by: Googer
It's 3.15 a galon for the cheap stuff and 3.29 for premeium in California. As long as we continue to drive suv's and suv's with v8's to make matters worse then there will be almost no end to the demand for this stuff.

Really? Wow. That is 50 cents higher than in San Jose and San Francisco and I would have thought San Francisco would be high. I assume you live in Los Angeles.

Be happy that with all the forced grades of gasoline you are "helping" the environment. Also, since California got rid of MTBE the damage to the engine seals and the polution has been reduced and your gas mileage has increased by 10%.

 

[BDawg]

Originally posted by: EatSpam

Originally posted by: Thera
This is a free market, no politicians needed. If you don't like it walk.

Not a free market. That energy bill was a big gift of tax breaks to the oil companies...that alone should tell you that this isn't a free market.

Oil companies who claim the high price of gas is due to high oil prices and low refinery capacity all the while enjoying double digit profit percent increases.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: judasmachine

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken

Originally posted by: judasmachine
I'm actually joining the HIGHER HIGHER group, but it's because I think we should be dragged by our wallets to newer, cleaner technologies.

:thumbsup:

The higher oil prices go, the more economically viable solar energy becomes. High gas prices will finally provide some impetus and motivation to ween ourselves off the oil teat.

btw. Most of our own oil comes from Canada. Quite a few Canadians must be raking it in at the moment.

dem pesky socialists to the north.... :|

We arent all that socialist, if you look at the numbers, Canada spends roughly $9,667 per person on government programs and spending; US is $11,126. Therefore technically the US is fiscally MORE social than Canada. (GB: $14,741, France: $16,895, Germany $15,473, Sweden: $22,130, Norway: 29,085 for reference)

The discrepancy comes when considering percent gdp spending, I can easily attribute this to far more productive US economy where GDP per capita is much higher. ($40,100 in US vs. $31,500) over 20% difference! With this smaller piece of economic pie, more of the taxation burden falls on the personal taxes rather than the less abundant and productive Canadian companies. One thing the Canadian government is typically good for is picking useful programs and sticking to just them, US pet pork projects are just insane. So not only are you spending more per person, you don't even get the welfare, healthcare, retirement infrastructure.

But it's a major misperception by many americans, and canadians for that case. I think our socialist view comes from personal taxes and social liberal stance.

Edit. This is offtopic, to discuss it, go here

 

[BDawg]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Thera
This is a free market, no politicians needed. If you don't like it walk.

there has never been a free market. No will there ever be.

Until the people are free. "The freer the market, the freer the people." Until there is a truly free market, there will not be a truly free people.

How does having a totally free market address items with a totally inelasic demand curve like gas? People pay the price because they have no choice.

So I buy gas or I don't go to work today?

 

[ExpertNovice]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Thera
This is a free market, no politicians needed. If you don't like it walk.

there has never been a free market. No will there ever be.

Until the people are free. "The freer the market, the freer the people." Until there is a truly free market, there will not be a truly free people.

I disagree, I think any kind of economic system done 100% is doomed for failure...100% capitalism, socialism, communism or nationalism...whatever the type it will be doomed. You need checks in all systems including capitalism, however I lean pretty hard towards a free or free'er market.

Well, that's not terribly positive thinking. How do you account for the fact that, thousands (perhaps millions) of years later, human beings are still here?

Because when a system becomes too burdensome humans cause the defective system to collapse and replace it. The larger and more intrusive the Government the harder it is for the people to change it and the longer the change takes. Thus, the push by the liberals and, more recently, the "conservatives" to make our government bigger. The liberals, of course, want a one world government. Just like Napoleon, Hitler, etc.

I agree with Thera.

The Laizze (spelling) form of government is one of the best. However, monopoly and oligopoly laws keep the larger companies in check. This fails where the government wants to give power to a particular company in order to gain more power themselves, such as President Clinton did with Microsoft. Even under the administration of President Bush this has not been reopened although they finally did receive a small financial penalty.

Of course the liberal Utopia (ala President Clinton, Senator Clinton, et al) is that the Government own and control everything. We moved closer to that when we lost the complete right to own property per the liberal Supreme Court. Hopefully, each state will pass laws reestablishing such rights but the more liberal states may not or will in the future rescend any protections given today.

Getting beyond businesses, the U.S. still sort of has a capitalistic society. Thus, we can provide SOCIAL services not only to the U.S. citizens but the rest of the world. Unfortunately our society is being systematically destroyed by the radical liberals who want to convert it to a socialistic stated with communistic rule (government control and ownership) or fascism (government and big business together control and ownership). Radical conservatives appear to be jumping on the same band wagon each assuming they will end up with control.

Communism around the world collapsed. Largely due to it trying to be 100% pure and partially due to President Regan. However, Communism did not go away it merely morphed into more of a Fascist form which, initially, appears to resemble somewhat capitalistic.

 

[alent1234]

Originally posted by: BDawg

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Thera
This is a free market, no politicians needed. If you don't like it walk.

there has never been a free market. No will there ever be.

Until the people are free. "The freer the market, the freer the people." Until there is a truly free market, there will not be a truly free people.

How does having a totally free market address items with a totally inelasic demand curve like gas? People pay the price because they have no choice.

So I buy gas or I don't go to work today?

you can also carpool or buy a car that gets better milege

 

[alent1234]

Originally posted by: BDawg

Originally posted by: EatSpam

Originally posted by: Thera
This is a free market, no politicians needed. If you don't like it walk.

Not a free market. That energy bill was a big gift of tax breaks to the oil companies...that alone should tell you that this isn't a free market.

Oil companies who claim the high price of gas is due to high oil prices and low refinery capacity all the while enjoying double digit profit percent increases.

it's a free market and gas is a commodity

there is a shortage of refining capacity but demand is going up so companies are free to price the product as they wish. If demand were to drop so would the price.

 

[PatboyX]

it only took a couple posts to compare a political party to hitler.
im impressed.

 

[catnap1972]

Originally posted by: alent1234

Originally posted by: BDawg

Originally posted by: EatSpam

Originally posted by: Thera
This is a free market, no politicians needed. If you don't like it walk.

Not a free market. That energy bill was a big gift of tax breaks to the oil companies...that alone should tell you that this isn't a free market.

Oil companies who claim the high price of gas is due to high oil prices and low refinery capacity all the while enjoying double digit profit percent increases.

it's a free market and gas is a commodity

there is a shortage of refining capacity but demand is going up so companies are free to price the product as they wish. If demand were to drop so would the price.

Fat chance!

They'd just reduce the supply to meet (or be just below) demand in order to keep the price right where it is.

Some of you obviously flunked that part of economics.