How is inflation affecting you?

[manly]

Isn't the US a net exporter currently? Time to drill some more!

The U.S. was briefly a net exporter a few years back, but is currently a (slight) net importer. You'd think there is a lot of "excess profit" to capture considering crude oil is over $100 per barrel, but U.S. big oil is gun shy and would rather return value to shareholders.

More oil supply could stop massive price spikes. But US producers won't fill that gap

Oil prices are soaring to seven-year highs, but don't expect US oil producers to ramp up supply.

www.cnn.com

 

[MrSquished]

I've definitely noticed filling up my tank is more expensive, but living in an area with high walkability, good bike infrastructure and the best mass transit in the country makes gas prices it less of a concern for my wallet. Of course I'd like them to be lower for others, but it's not a big deal for me personally.

This lifestyle also keeps me healthier.

I tend to buy meat at Costco so not affected quite as much by meat price increases but it's still noticeable, as well as a somewhat higher grocery bill in general.

Spring is just around the corner. Which is great as outdoor activities can substitute a bit for indoor activities that cost more money. Still going to go to bars and outdoor dining, but hiking, long bike rides and camping will now be in the mix too. Should keep things pretty even.

 

[highland145]

The U.S. was briefly a net exporter a few years back, but is currently a (slight) net importer. You'd think there is a lot of "excess profit" to capture considering crude oil is over $100 per barrel, but U.S. big oil is gun shy and would rather return value to shareholders.

More oil supply could stop massive price spikes. But US producers won't fill that gap

Oil prices are soaring to seven-year highs, but don't expect US oil producers to ramp up supply.

www.cnn.com

And it's not a matter of on/off switch at the wells. Nor is the source of federal land permits guaranteed so why risk it?

Putin pulls the Ukraine crap off, with their (Russia/Crimea/Black Sea) reserves, they could well hold Europe by the balls. This might need to go into the other thread but all of us read both.

 

[Red Squirrel]

You know that you have to feed horses, right?

I'd probably grow hay. But yeah it would actually be something to keep in mind. Feed, grooming, vet bills etc... they're not exactly maintenance free. But I mostly said that as a joke I don't think it would be viable in winter when it's -40. Kinda bad on the horse too to bring it out in those temps.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The U.S. was briefly a net exporter a few years back, but is currently a (slight) net importer. You'd think there is a lot of "excess profit" to capture considering crude oil is over $100 per barrel, but U.S. big oil is gun shy and would rather return value to shareholders.

What is meant by "excess profit"?

Back a very long time ago it was called "windfall profits" and they taxed the shit out of it in retribution for making them.

 

[highland145]

What is meant by "excess profit"?

Back a very long time ago it was called "windfall profits" and they taxed the shit out of it in retribution for making them.

And when you add the billions it costs to explore/drill/politics...not a good investment. Didn't a bunch of fracking shut down after T $50/barrel?

 

[GunsMadeAmericaFree]

With prices up high, normally there would be a LOT of oil exploration right now, which would eventually lead to increased production, and lower prices. Not sure if that will happen in the current political environment, though.

 

[ultimatebob]

This might need to go into the other thread but all of us read both.

Other thread, or other forum? I try to avoid that other forum like it was infested with plague.

 

[deadlyapp]

With prices up high, normally there would be a LOT of oil exploration right now, which would eventually lead to increased production, and lower prices. Not sure if that will happen in the current political environment, though.

The rig count in the US has steadily been increasing (except last week it actually dropped by 3), so there is increased production, but most of the oil majors are also being very capital careful, because they don't want to get themselves in a similar situation to what happened in 2015 and then 2019. Most of the oil plays in the US have been consolidated now to private equity and oil majors, rather than small companies with tons of debt and an incentive to drill drill drill.

Just to edit as well - increased production in one area doesn't necessarily improve anything, especially as refineries are designed to handle certain amounts and types of crude. In the US most of the refineries are already working at their max capabilities of the light crude that is produced and what is missing is the heavy and the sour crude. Replacing russian crude isn't easy.

 

[ultimatebob]

The rig count in the US has steadily been increasing (except last week it actually dropped by 3), so there is increased production, but most of the oil majors are also being very capital careful, because they don't want to get themselves in a similar situation to what happened in 2015 and then 2019. Most of the oil plays in the US have been consolidated now to private equity and oil majors, rather than small companies with tons of debt and an incentive to drill drill drill.

Apparently, the Biden administration was holding up new drilling permits for environmental review. Something tells me that shenanigans will stop now that gas is over $4 a gallon in many places.

 

[IronWing]

Apparently, the Biden administration was holding up new drilling permits for environmental review. Something tells me that shenanigans will stop now that gas is over $4 a gallon in many places.

What you call shenanigans, we call following the law.

 

[GunsMadeAmericaFree]

Artificially holding back permits to pacify the environmental wing of your party WAS politically expedient, until now. If they truly block the importation of Russian Oil, then prices will go up even more at the pump. To decrease the chances of this hurting re-election prospects of his allies, Biden would almost definitely do whatever he can going forward to help bring the cost of gasoline back down. This would mean allowing more drilling licenses.

 

[Brainonska511]

As shitty as increasing fuel costs are for people, it's a net good thing. We want to reduce our use of fossil fuels, especially wasteful uses. Cheap fossil fuels have led people to build, buy, and live in extremely wasteful ways. And by decreasing our fossil fuel use, we protect ourselves long-term from fluctuations and global instability caused by authoritarian petro states.

 

[IronWing]

Artificially holding back permits to pacify the environmental wing of your party WAS politically expedient, until now. If they truly block the importation of Russian Oil, then prices will go up even more at the pump. To decrease the chances of this hurting re-election prospects of his allies, Biden would almost definitely do whatever he can going forward to help bring the cost of gasoline back down. This would mean allowing more drilling licenses.

What you call "Artificially holding back permits", we call obeying the law as written, not the law as GunsMadeAmericaFree would like it to be. The reason environmental groups are forever suing the federal government (and usually winning) over oil and gas leases is because the government, regardless of party control, consistently breaks the law in favor of oil and gas interests. It's a litigation subsidy for the industry.

 

[MrSquished]

These folks of the right that revel in misinformation need to start giving evidence to their claims that there is artificial suppression of drilling permits and that permits are just being held up for shits and giggles.

 

[deadlyapp]

Needless to say - permits aren't going to solve the issue of replacing russian oil and improve local price dynamics, which might I add are impacted by the global market. If you want to nationalize the entire oil industry to try to improve local price dynamics, go for it, but I suspect you'll go the way of Mexico, Venezeula, and the middle east with their nationalized oil and even more rampant corruption (just shifted to government instead of capitalist oil companies).

We're Not Gonna Take It - What Do U.S. Refineries Import from Russia? And What If They Stop?

Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine has posed a dilemma regarding Russian crude oil. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, sending out an average of more than 7 MMb/d last year, or about 7% of global demand.

rbnenergy.com

 

[K1052]

I'm hearing a lot of things about why Biden has supposedly ruined US oil production that are just not true

1) frackers are showing discipline to margin and thus shareholders so no help coming there
2) there are plenty of leases that are sitting unused so thats not it either
3) But mah Keystone XL - would not be online yet if there was even available Alberta output to fill it

In the near term swapping Venezuelan crude back in for Russian is likely the play. Yes Maduro is an asshole but if we aren't buying oil from assholes now then everybody better start inflating their bike tires. US sanctions on Venezuela prompted the shift to Russian sources in the first place.

 

[biostud]

I'm hearing a lot of things about why Biden has supposedly ruined US oil production that are just not true

1) frackers are showing discipline to margin and thus shareholders so no help coming there
2) there are plenty of leases that are sitting unused so thats not it either
3) But mah Keystone XL - would not be online yet if there was even available Alberta output to fill it

In the near term swapping Venezuelan crude back in for Russian is likely the play. Yes Maduro is an asshole but if we aren't buying oil from assholes now then everybody better start inflating their bike tires. US sanctions on Venezuela prompted the shift to Russian sources in the first place.

Besides maybe Norway, isn't all the oil located in countries with leaders of questonable quality?

 

[K1052]

Besides maybe Norway, isn't all the oil located in countries with leaders of questonable quality?

Canada I guess too.

This is why when some people balk at swapping VZ oil for RU oil on moral grounds it's just performative crap. Does the US share a lot of moral values with Saudi Arabia? No, of course not. It's just about alignment of interests. Nothing more.

 

[ultimatebob]

I just had to pay $4.69 a gallon for heating oil. Thanks, Putin!

 

[Brainonska511]

I just had to pay $4.69 a gallon for heating oil. Thanks, Putin!

Time to get a heat pump and only use fossil fuels as a backup/emergency heat source.

Thanks to living in modern, 3-story apartment building, my natural gas bill has been $25/mo to cover the baseline water heater use. Our heat has barely come on, and we're not even trying to keep it cold in here.

 

[K1052]

Time to get a heat pump and only use fossil fuels as a backup/emergency heat source.

The government should heavily subsidize switch overs to heat pumps. Lot more options now will all the mini splits and such too.

 

[repoman0]

Love my mini splits but they still aren’t cheap to run as heaters here in New England. I had a couple $400 electric bill months this winter and I turn them off at night .. and my house is only 1800sqft. That’s what 1930 construction will get me I guess. Of course our electricity in MA is super high as well, like 26 cents per kWh. It’s much cheaper to run them as ACs in the summer because the temperature delta is far smaller.

I have solar on my roof which pays back a decent amount quarterly at least.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Heat pumps have come a long way, don't need to drill wells or bury loops anymore. If I was upgrading my furnace I would probably be looking at one of those. They can work down to like -30. Still need another source as backup, but we don't get that many days where it's colder than -30 anymore. Maybe a couple weeks worth at most.

 

[repoman0]

Time to get a heat pump and only use fossil fuels as a backup/emergency heat source.

Thanks to living in modern, 3-story apartment building, my natural gas bill has been $25/mo to cover the baseline water heater use. Our heat has barely come on, and we're not even trying to keep it cold in here.

Thank your friendly neighbors for that 😛 hidden advantage of density for sure.