How long can intel maintain such a large process lead over rivals?

[Ferzerp]

Desktop sales are growing, but an overwhelming majority of those are in Asia and tend to be very cheap desktops for the newly emerging economies. Profits on those are less than stellar. In the US it's the laptops that are growing and now represent an overwhelming majority of PC sales. So PC sales are improving, if you look more closely at the numbers you'll see it's the laptops that make up a whole lot (75%?) of sales.

The desktop is growing, but a very measly rate when compared to tabs/lappies/smart phones. So the trend is actually still heavily favoring mobile and that only seems to be accelerating.

New market grows faster than mature market. Wow, who would have thought!

edit: I like how you've included laptops. How 'bout those arm laptops....? Laptop is all x86.

 

[senseamp]

Once ARM is good enough, and it's getting there, I don't really care how much better Intel is, I'll go for the best price and form factor.

 

[blastingcap]

Once ARM is good enough, and it's getting there, I don't really care how much better Intel is, I'll go for the best price and form factor.

I dunno about you but I kind of care about the library of x86-compatible software. I doubt that most major gamedevs will spend resources to write non-casual games that run natively on ARM.

 

[Ferzerp]

I dunno about you but I kind of care about the library of x86-compatible software. I doubt that most major gamedevs will spend resources to write non-casual games that run natively on ARM.

You don't get it. The ARM obsessed are under the impression that ARM is magical fairy dust. It doesn't matter how well the architecture actually performs (here is a hint, poorly). They seem to think that since it's low power (the singular benefit), the magical fairy dust will allow it to fulfill all their computing needs.


I'd love to see a units of work per Wh consumed benchmark though

 

[pelov]

New market grows faster than mature market. Wow, who would have thought!

edit: I like how you've included laptops. How 'bout those arm laptops....? Laptop is all x86.

Yea, laptops are all x86 but they're also the biggest portion of the market now. It's the reason Intel is giving us graphical improvements and now both x86 chip makers are essentially molding laptop chips into desktop platforms.

ARM laptops suck, but don't play the WTFOMFGWTFLOLAXELBBQ games with me. I never said anything about ARM on the laptop, that's all you. I was just giving you more market share info which you overlooked that's all The point of those sales figures is x86 chip makers are focusing far more on the laptop/mobile market than they are on the desktop which has essentially been relegated to "just give them a server chip or a big boy laptop chip."

 

[ShintaiDK]

People seem to forget. If you add performance to ARM. You instantly lose all the power benefits and then some. Not to mention software compability. Even Apple said ARM for laptops/desktops is a serious no go.

And then we can mention how Medfield CPU wise runs in circles around ARM CPUs today, at close to the same wattage.

ARM 64bit support is also some "future event". They talk about prototypes in 2014.

 

[blastingcap]

The problem is that Intel dominates servers and desktops, whereas ARM dominates ultra-mobile (tablets and cell phones).

Where the two collide is in laptops, and I don't think it's wise to count ARM out. There are plenty of people who are happy to buy iOS tablets, so what makes you think they care that much about backward x86 compatibility? Also, emulation will eventually be possible.

In servers, if ARM is energy-efficient enough, people will customize servers there, as the software dev costs can be offset by lower energy usage.

That said, from what I understand, power leakage will matter more and more as you get down to tinier process sizes, not switching (where ARM shines). Therefore the process itself matters more in the future. And Intel is the current king of process.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Little example. Remember A8 is a future unreleased core.

ARM winning over x86 aint gonna happen. x86 gonna utterly destroy ARM in all the segments it chooses.

 

[pelov]

People seem to forget. If you add performance to ARM. You instantly lose all the power benefits and then some. Not to mention software compability. Even Apple said ARM for laptops/desktops is a serious no go.

And then we can mention how Medfield CPU wise runs in circles around ARM CPUs today, at close to the same wattage.

ARM 64bit support is also some "future event". They talk about prototypes in 2014.

The 64-bit issue with ARM is a big one and there hasn't been any significant improvement there, at least that we know about. It's definitely a hurdle that's going to require a lot of work to get past but remember that Intel also had some serious issues here as well. The biggest advancement on that end was from AMD and not Intel, which gave birth to a deformed RISC baby.

Intel is closer to ARM's level in ARM's own playing field than ARM is on Intel's. What benefits ARM though is the competition and "go for it" attitude that is lacking in x86. After signing a licensing agreement with ARM, the chip manufacturers are given a blank slate as to how they wish to implement it and what they want to do with it. We have never ever seen that in x86 and that's because they have to maintain compatibility due to legacy concerns. If Intel decides they want to compete with ARM it doesn't mean ARM will win nor Intel will win (on the low end of the market, more specifically) but consumers will win. Intel has no shot of competing unless they're willing to provide very good chips at very cheap prices -- something they're very very hesitant to do on x86 desktop/netbook/laptop and especially server because they can afford higher margins there with a competitor so far behind.

I do hope Intel decides to compete and thoroughly compete at that, not just in power consumption and performance but in price as well. Because for the first time in a very long time Intel will actually be forced to innovate again instead of sit idly producing single-digit gains year-to-year.

I'd expect consolidation of the ARM market with maybe 2 or 3 total chip makers soon.

 

[Ferzerp]

Little example. Remember A8 is a future unreleased core.

ARM winning over x86 aint gonna happen. x86 gonna utterly destroy ARM in all the segments it chooses.

Fairy dust....

 

[dagamer34]

Little example. Remember A8 is a future unreleased core.

ARM winning over x86 aint gonna happen. x86 gonna utterly destroy ARM in all the segments it chooses.

Um... the Cortex A8 was in the iPhone 3GS from 2009.

 

[senseamp]

I dunno about you but I kind of care about the library of x86-compatible software. I doubt that most major gamedevs will spend resources to write non-casual games that run natively on ARM.

I am primarily on the web browser. Don't care about non-casual games myself. Just want all the web formats and video to work. Only apps I care about are Skype and BitTorrent client. I use Google Docs and Calendar at home. So if ARM can give it to me for less than Intel and in a slimmer form factor, I am game. I think in not too distant future, I'll be able to have a decent desktop experience for my needs on a phone.

 

[Ferzerp]

What platform do you think is actually running Google Docs? It's not running on your tablet. (people forget this as well).

 

[senseamp]

You don't get it. The ARM obsessed are under the impression that ARM is magical fairy dust. It doesn't matter how well the architecture actually performs (here is a hint, poorly). They seem to think that since it's low power (the singular benefit), the magical fairy dust will allow it to fulfill all their computing needs.


I'd love to see a units of work per Wh consumed benchmark though

People have different computing needs. ARM can meet mine, I don't feel the need to spend more for something I don't need, which is going to take up more space and have a fan making noise. Low power is not sole benefit of ARM, there is also low price due to fierce competition.

 

[senseamp]

What platform do you think is actually running Google Docs? It's not running on your tablet. (people forget this as well).

I didn't say it was, but that's not my problem. I can only decide what device to buy for myself. The data center can decide what to buy for themselves.

 

[Ferzerp]

Your real argument is that you only need a dumb terminal, not a computer.

At that point, who gives a crap what powers it?

 

[blastingcap]

I am primarily on the web browser. Don't care about non-casual games myself. Just want all the web formats and video to work. Only apps I care about are Skype and BitTorrent client. I use Google Docs and Calendar at home. So if ARM can give it to me for less than Intel and in a slimmer form factor, I am game. I think in not too distant future, I'll be able to have a decent desktop experience for my needs on a phone.

Neither of us represent 100% of the market. Multiple platforms can exist, anyway; I can see a future where I am still on an x86 desktop but both my laptop and phone are on ARM, running Windows 8 for ARM.

 

[pelov]

Your real argument is that you only need a dumb terminal, not a computer.

At that point, who gives a crap what powers it?

That's sort of the point though, isn't it? We're getting down to $200 android tablets and not the cheap ones either. If people are spending less time on their desktops/laptops and more time on their tabs/phones for the same tasks that required x86, who cares if it's x86 or ARM? Or Intel or Qualcomm? It seems like you're arguing against the same point you're making here.

The desktop/laptop and need for x86 won't go away, but you'd have to be blind to claim that its importance hasn't been decreasing.

 

[Idontcare]

Your real argument is that you only need a dumb terminal, not a computer.

At that point, who gives a crap what powers it?

And that argument probably holds true for a huge majority of the existing desktop/laptop market space as the general apps of interest are office apps, web apps, and at best some silly low-power games.

Think about it, the desktop market exploded because Intel was able to convince everyone's mom and dad that they needed a home computer to connect to the internet.

Then the laptop market exploded because Intel was able to convince businesses that they had better give every employee a laptop or else face getting out-competed by their competitors who did.

But my mom doesn't need the laptop she has for her work, I know because she has me "check it to see if anything needs to be done" every time I visit her and it is way over-built for her uses.

She needs the interface, a keyboard, mouse, and screen that is big enough for her aging eyes to read...but it could be a dumb terminal connected to the cloud and she honestly wouldn't even know.

Decades ago the dumb-terminal market died because it lacked one thing - mobile connectivity. But the wireless market and the internet remove that barrier entirely.

 

[senseamp]

Your real argument is that you only need a dumb terminal, not a computer.

At that point, who gives a crap what powers it?

It's not completely dumb, and it is still a computer that runs things, but yeah, as long as it can run browser, casual applications, and play video well, I don't really care what Linpack number it puts up or how well it runs database software. Let server guys worry about that. There is a point after which that extra performance is marginally useless to me as a consumer, and I don't want to pay for it. I am still on a 5 year old dual core laptop, the only thing I feel is lacking is smooth 1080p playback, and modern ARM chips have that GPU accelerated.

 

[blastingcap]

And that argument probably holds true for a huge majority of the existing desktop/laptop market space as the general apps of interest are office apps, web apps, and at best some silly low-power games.

Think about it, the desktop market exploded because Intel was able to convince everyone's mom and dad that they needed a home computer to connect to the internet.

Then the laptop market exploded because Intel was able to convince businesses that they had better give every employee a laptop or else face getting out-competed by their competitors who did.

But my mom doesn't need the laptop she has for her work, I know because she has me "check it to see if anything needs to be done" every time I visit her and it is way over-built for her uses.

She needs the interface, a keyboard, mouse, and screen that is big enough for her aging eyes to read...but it could be a dumb terminal connected to the cloud and she honestly wouldn't even know.

Decades ago the dumb-terminal market died because it lacked one thing - mobile connectivity. But the wireless market and the internet remove that barrier entirely.

I know that many people feel the Cloud is the future, etc. etc. but I am going to hold out as long as I can, due to security concerns. I encrypt and back up my data myself, on hard drives that aren't usually even powered on let alone connected to the internet, so no nosy Dropbox employee or whoever can access it or intercept it. If I temporarily lose internet access, I can still access those files and work on them and save them. I also do not use WiFi and run everything through wires. And all of that was BEFORE I began talking to a crypto Ph.D. friend of a friend who just made that much more aware of how insecure we all are. The only real concession I've made is to use webmail for more things than I really ought to.

But for your ordinary person who overshares on Facebook and uses it to store photos at pathetic resolutions and who doesn't have an anti-virus program and mostly just surfs the web and make MS Office documents, a thin client should be fine.

 

[Makaveli]

AMD is already producing better chips than Intel. Intel sell more chips due to slick marketing. Not everyone is a gamer, and those who are should just focus on the GPU not CPU. Reviews that show Intel ahead are from pro-Intel sites and the benches they use are cherry picked to favor Intel. These are 'bentmarks'. Those who buy Intel are just sheep who were fed misleading information or plain out fanbois. So goes the arguments at AMD Zone, the last bastion of feel-good-about-my-AMD-CPU-and-spit-on-Intel remaining on the internet.

So that would make anandtech a pro intel site if what you say is true. All of the benchmarks for 3+ years now show big blue as having the superior CPU?

I understand what you are trying to say. Most people won't notice the difference side by side unless looking at benchmarks. This however doesn't change the fact.

 

[senseamp]

I know that many people feel the Cloud is the future, etc. etc. but I am going to hold out as long as I can, due to security concerns. I encrypt and back up my data myself, on hard drives that aren't usually even powered on let alone connected to the internet, so no nosy Dropbox employee or whoever can access it or intercept it. If I temporarily lose internet access, I can still access those files and work on them and save them. I also do not use WiFi and run everything through wires. And all of that was BEFORE I began talking to a crypto Ph.D. friend of a friend who just made that much more aware of how insecure we all are. The only real concession I've made is to use webmail for more things than I really ought to.

But for your ordinary person who overshares on Facebook and uses it to store photos at pathetic resolutions and who doesn't have an anti-virus program and mostly just surfs the web and make MS Office documents, a thin client should be fine.

Pretty much everything but serious gaming should be fine for average home consumer, if video encode and decode is hardware accelerated, even if running locally. ARM is rapidly getting to the point where it's at Core 2 Duo performance level, which is the "good enough for most people" level, IMO.

 

[Idontcare]

I know that many people feel the Cloud is the future, etc. etc. but I am going to hold out as long as I can, due to security concerns. I encrypt and back up my data myself, on hard drives that aren't usually even powered on let alone connected to the internet, so no nosy Dropbox employee or whoever can access it or intercept it. If I temporarily lose internet access, I can still access those files and work on them and save them. I also do not use WiFi and run everything through wires. And all of that was BEFORE I began talking to a crypto Ph.D. friend of a friend who just made that much more aware of how insecure we all are. The only real concession I've made is to use webmail for more things than I really ought to.

But for your ordinary person who overshares on Facebook and uses it to store photos at pathetic resolutions and who doesn't have an anti-virus program and mostly just surfs the web and make MS Office documents, a thin client should be fine.

Oh me too, absolutely.

In my line of work, foreign currency exchange, I code/program automated trading algorithms which actually parse the market data and execute trades without my involvement.

Now there are a lot of brokers who want guys like me to open accounts with them, and one of the "features" they offer now is free VPS (virtual private server) which essentially houses your trading code and programs on their preferred servers and you (me, the broker's client) accesses the VPS via the web.

It is essentially a cloud-like situation, only all my trusted code (easily hacked and disassembled if the host wanted to, or their minimum wage IT guys) is on their hard drives doing its thing.

I don't want that, I avoid it like the plague for the very security issues you highlight. I don't trust any of these server places to not disappear overnight, or for their host to just decide it wasn't staying in the market and all of a sudden you are orphaned, a customer that no one wants. (like MS Zune)

 

[blastingcap]

Pretty much everything but serious gaming should be fine for average home consumer, if video encode and decode is hardware accelerated, even if running locally. ARM is rapidly getting to the point where it's at Core 2 Duo performance level, which is the "good enough for most people" level, IMO.

Did you even read my post at ALL? If you're responding to the other guy, please quote him instead of me. Because if you're going to quote me talking about security, please say something relevant to that. I'm not the one saying thin clients are not enough for most people.

Oh me too, absolutely.

In my line of work, foreign currency exchange, I code/program automated trading algorithms which actually parse the market data and execute trades without my involvement.

Now there are a lot of brokers who want guys like me to open accounts with them, and one of the "features" they offer now is free VPS (virtual private server) which essentially houses your trading code and programs on their preferred servers and you (me, the broker's client) accesses the VPS via the web.

It is essentially a cloud-like situation, only all my trusted code (easily hacked and disassembled if the host wanted to, or their minimum wage IT guys) is on their hard drives doing its thing.

I don't want that, I avoid it like the plague for the very security issues you highlight. I don't trust any of these server places to not disappear overnight, or for their host to just decide it wasn't staying in the market and all of a sudden you are orphaned, a customer that no one wants. (like MS Zune)

Exactly. A lot of these pro-cloud people haven't been hacked enough. They are still in the honeymoon phase, like someone who has just discovered credit cards and hasn't yet had a credit card number stolen. It's like, out of sight, out of mind, but you are giving the keys to, as you put, the minimum wage IT worker you've never met. The cloud is useful, just not something I would trust with mission-critical data. Not even my own data, sometimes.

Oh and by the way, I used Skydrive to share photos for a while. Did you know that Microsoft actually has people who monitor what gets uploaded to Skydrives? I took a risque photo of my gf once (wasn't even that risque) and absent-mindedly batch uploaded it along with more normal photos. It may have triggered a flag (I'm sure MSFT has algorithms to try to identify potentially TOS-violating data), or I got spot checked, or MSFT has more monitors than I thought, because I was almost instantly suspended for allegedly having TOS-violating photos on my Skydrive and had to talk to two different people to get my account reinstated, but only after deleting the photo. If my gf had been, say, underaged, I wouldn't be surprised if the FBI knocked on my door. Even as it was, I was unnerved that some strangers out there were viewing photos of my gf and me and everything and everyone I took photos.

Don't think Microsoft alone does this. Big brother watches you on the Cloud more than you may think.