How long do you think it will take for DDR4 ECC RDIMMs to achieve surplus pricing?

[cbn]

Currently DDR3 1333 ECC RDIMMs are very cheap. (Example: Six months ago I was able to buy 8 x 8GB DDR3 1333 ECC RDIMMs for a little over $100 shipped. At the same time 8 x 4GB DDR3 1333 ECC RDIMMs were around $36 to $40 shipped)

So when do you think we will see DDR4 (perhaps lower speed) ECC RDIMMs start hitting the low prices? for what DIMM sizes?

P.S. DDR4 ECC RDIMM debuted Xeon E5 26xx v3 in Q3 2014.

 

[gbeirn]

When DDR5 comes out and starts to replace DDR4? That's the main reason used DDR3 is cheaper. Been about 10 years since DDR3 is out so maybe figure 2022 or so....

 

[daxzy]

Depends on speed grade.

RDDR4-2133 is already pretty cheap. RDDR4-2666 is barely even out and really f'ing expensive.

 

[tynopik]

Currently DDR3 1333 ECC RDIMMs are very cheap. (Example: Six months ago I was able to buy 8 x 8GB DDR3 1333 ECC RDIMMs for a little over $100 shipped. At the same time 8 x 4GB DDR3 1333 ECC RDIMMs were around $36 to $40 shipped)

wait, where are you seeing prices like that?

 

[cbn]

wait, where are you seeing prices like that?

Ebay.

 

[Elixer]

DDR4 shortage is expected to be until 2018.

No Relief for DRAM and NAND Shortages in Sight; Considerable Supply Only in 2018

DRAM prices have been high for quite some time now, due to a general increased demand over a slowly improving supply capability from manufacturers. Pricing of DRAM has been increasing (to the tune that if I wanted to double my memory capacity, I would have to pay double of what I paid a mere 11 months ago.) NAND pricing has been affected as well, with newer technologies such as 3D NAND not having a relevant impact on end user pricing as was expected, since tight supply and growing demand means process-level savings are dwarfed by the increasing prices on the balance of supply and demand.

 

[XavierMace]

P.S. DDR4 ECC RDIMM debuted Xeon E5 26xx v3 in Q3 2014.

Keep in mind you're seeing these DDR3 prices 8 years after DDR3 debuted in servers.

 

[cbn]

Keep in mind you're seeing these DDR3 prices 8 years after DDR3 debuted in servers.

Yep, that is right.

DDR3 1333 ECC RDIMMs would have debuted first on Servers with LGA 1366 processors like the X5570.

With that mentioned, when did most of the price drop happen?

Was it (for example) 5 years after those 45nm LGA 1366 Xeons were released? Or sometime before or after that?

 

[XavierMace]

It wasn't a sudden drop. They slowly got cheaper as the market got saturated. Same thing with the Westmere EP and Nehalem EP processors. They didn't get super cheap until the market was saturated with them. When the gray/used market gets saturated with them depends on the rate companies buy new equipment. The big players pretty much always upgrade regularly but for small companies right now, they don't have much incentive to upgrade. They don't need more cores or PCIe lanes and the low power Westmere EP's aren't too shabby in the power consumption department.